Comments on: Experts, Crashes, Media, Skepticism

By: duncanst

duncanst — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 00:35:54 +0000

You need to keep in mind the the definition of an expert (any expert):

An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until eventually they know everything about nothing.

By: DC

DC — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 20:06:52 +0000

From Tetlock:

– Unless you force experts to be specific, as we did, they can make predictions that are difficult to falsify. You know the cynical cliche “Never assign a date and a number to the same prediction.” That lets you get away with saying things like “Yes, I did say the Dow will hit 36,000, and it will – just wait. I was merely a little early.” –

This exact dodge was used moments ago by Louise Yamada on CNBC. She’s been leading the league in the last few months and she predicts S&P 600 but won’t say when.

That’s one of the great things about Nightly Business Report: Paul Kangas puts up charts of prior predictions to hold guests’ feet to the fire.

CNBC is too gutless, too lazy, or both to attempt something that might jeopardize their Japanese-game-show, Santelli for Senate, We Are Turning the Corner environment. The notable exception to this is Fast Money which on occasion takes ownership of bad calls.

By: karen

karen — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 19:25:12 +0000

tryflyfishing, i like tha take. thanks.

By: Bruce N Tennessee

Bruce N Tennessee — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:20:47 +0000

@Otto:

I have always admired the English of the 20th century..the entire “Us against the 3rd reich” thing, I guess.
And most of our democratic ideas, of course… like anyone else they’ve had their share of screw- ups too, but they’ve been very good friends…I hope the downturn is not as bad on them as it appears in the early going…

By: comet52

comet52 — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:13:51 +0000

Hedgehog identifier keywords:
Elliot wave
hyperinflation
deflationary spiral
“the yellow metal”

Fox identifier keywords:
beats me, who knows where this financial trainwreck is going next

By: tryflyfishing

tryflyfishing — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:01:42 +0000

My father -a journalist- told me to start with “Why is this bastard lying to me?” It would help if journalists started this way today.

By: Mannwich

Mannwich — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 17:27:28 +0000

@H Salmon: I think that’s what’s making me (and others) so edgy about the state of affairs in this country these days. As leftback put it: too many of the incompetents and fishbowl back-slappers are still running the show (outside of O, who hasn’t proven his competence either way yet). Until that changes, I fear we’re just going to make the same, or bigger, mistakes that only makes the problem worse.

By: H Salmon

H Salmon — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 17:16:54 +0000

I learned critical thinking in an early career (one Barry shares). Then moved to Corporate America and found it completely discouraged. Those who engaged in it were feared/forced out as “hedgehogs” (we had another word) tried to spin whatever the leader wanted as great strategy. No surprise to me that so many companies are struggling – managing for short-term #s, executive bonuses, office politicians, and a revolving door as those executives leveraged short term success to jump ship for better opportunities just spells eventual disaster.

It’s now hard for me to invest in equities as I am always suspicious. Makes we want to only invest in companies that I control.

I am hoping that we are entering a new age of more critical analysis, but we certainly are not in Washington. Bloomberg had a great interview with Michael Porter where he nailed it – Washington just completely lacks any strategic thinking. Anyway, it is wonderful to have sites like TBP where you can hear from true thinkers and entertain different views.

By: ottovbvs

ottovbvs — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 17:08:12 +0000

Bruce N Tennessee Says:

February 19th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Lefty:

Do all Englishmen really say “Jolly good?”

…..They do indeed…..it’s a phrase I’ve kept from growing up there along with a Brit leaning accent. It was always useful for picking up women I found. It sounds a bit crazy but there are business environments where it’s an advantage. It must have been all that time they spent ruling the empire. They were pretty good at it “actually” which is another English favorite. Probably because they were fairly tolerant and didn’t take themselves too seriously.

By: How the Common Man Sees It

How the Common Man Sees It — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 17:04:47 +0000

We are, of course, smarter now…

smarter or smarting?