Comments on: Fair Value for S&P = 440 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:38:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: shiznitz http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-146155 shiznitz Mon, 16 Feb 2009 22:12:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-146155 great comments and links great comments and links

]]> By: Binggan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-146097 Binggan Mon, 16 Feb 2009 17:54:33 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-146097 I added my two cents to this very provocative comment by looking at a long term PE chart based on 10 year rolling earnings. http://great2cents.blogspot.com/2009/02/earnings-and-valuation.html I added my two cents to this very provocative comment by looking at a long term PE chart based on 10 year rolling earnings.
http://great2cents.blogspot.com/2009/02/earnings-and-valuation.html

]]> By: William Miller http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-145984 William Miller Sun, 15 Feb 2009 12:25:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-145984 Carl Swenlin @ Decision Point atacks the same issue and his conclusions are even more dour. http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090213_earn.html Carl Swenlin @ Decision Point atacks the same issue and his conclusions are even more dour.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090213_earn.html

]]> By: Mr.Sparkle http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-145851 Mr.Sparkle Sat, 14 Feb 2009 01:41:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-145851 @Steve Barry - That's an interesting question and one that I will look into. Have to make sure I can find a reliable source of data. The good thing about analyzing SPX is that the data is public and easily linked to. @Karen - I appreciate the comments. It's something I started to consider after going through Shiller's data and doing some work on historic yields since the destruction of balance sheets certainly implies lower dividends. That and I was reading Chancellor's book "Devil Take the Hindmost" and got to the part about the Nikkei and it's miniscule yield. Well worth a read, if you haven't checked it out. @Steve Barry – That’s an interesting question and one that I will look into. Have to make sure I can find a reliable source of data. The good thing about analyzing SPX is that the data is public and easily linked to.

@Karen – I appreciate the comments. It’s something I started to consider after going through Shiller’s data and doing some work on historic yields since the destruction of balance sheets certainly implies lower dividends. That and I was reading Chancellor’s book “Devil Take the Hindmost” and got to the part about the Nikkei and it’s miniscule yield. Well worth a read, if you haven’t checked it out.

]]> By: karen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-145835 karen Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:49:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-145835 Okay, Andy, fair enough. As long as you are looking... Not much of a knife catcher, though, are you? Unfortunately, most bottoms are seen in hindsight... Okay, Andy, fair enough. As long as you are looking… Not much of a knife catcher, though, are you? Unfortunately, most bottoms are seen in hindsight…

]]> By: karen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-145833 karen Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:43:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-145833 Mr.Sparkle, thank you. Great commentary, too. Particularly, "My (currently under-developed) opinion: In the next few years, the market will return to a situation in which investing is done based much more on dividends than on capital gains." This is exactly what i decided last year. Sure, there may still be short term anomalies to trade on now and then... but i believe they will be more rare in 2009 and the years to come. To me, 2007 was virtually a repeat of the dot.com mania. i kept shaking my head and thinking, are we really repeating this? Mr.Sparkle, thank you. Great commentary, too. Particularly, “My (currently under-developed) opinion: In the next few years, the market will return to a situation in which investing is done based much more on dividends than on capital gains.” This is exactly what i decided last year. Sure, there may still be short term anomalies to trade on now and then… but i believe they will be more rare in 2009 and the years to come. To me, 2007 was virtually a repeat of the dot.com mania. i kept shaking my head and thinking, are we really repeating this?

]]> By: Andy Tabbo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-145832 Andy Tabbo Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:40:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-145832 O' Mistress. I am very difficult to satisify. I'm very much looking for a bottom, and when I see one I will start screaming from the rooftops to start buying, rest assured. However, some serious economists have concluded that China is the MOST similar to the U.S. in 1929 - 32, due to it's huge reliance on exports and it's massive reserves. The U.S. now is more similar to Europe in the Great Depression. We're debtors and can monetize our debts if necessary. China's reserves are going to DWINDLE rapidly and they will not be able to change the habits of the population so quickly, to go from savers to consumers. So, yeah, I can see a full 75-80% decline in the FXI. It'll be a nice setup down at $17 bucks...it'll be a "new low" that gets most other technicians all bear'd....you'll have tons of RSI divergence and be setup for a massive snapback rally. O’ Mistress.

I am very difficult to satisify. I’m very much looking for a bottom, and when I see one I will start screaming from the rooftops to start buying, rest assured. However, some serious economists have concluded that China is the MOST similar to the U.S. in 1929 – 32, due to it’s huge reliance on exports and it’s massive reserves. The U.S. now is more similar to Europe in the Great Depression. We’re debtors and can monetize our debts if necessary. China’s reserves are going to DWINDLE rapidly and they will not be able to change the habits of the population so quickly, to go from savers to consumers.

So, yeah, I can see a full 75-80% decline in the FXI. It’ll be a nice setup down at $17 bucks…it’ll be a “new low” that gets most other technicians all bear’d….you’ll have tons of RSI divergence and be setup for a massive snapback rally.

]]> By: Steve Barry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-145830 Steve Barry Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:33:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-145830 @Sparkle: Nas arEPS is now 109!!! can you do an anlysis over time? http://www.financialsense.com/monitor.html @Sparkle:

Nas arEPS is now 109!!! can you do an anlysis over time?

http://www.financialsense.com/monitor.html

]]> By: I-Man http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-145823 I-Man Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:11:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-145823 @ Karen: I'm actually focusing much of my fundamental analysis on beads, shells, and candles... those are the markets of the future. @ Karen:

I’m actually focusing much of my fundamental analysis on beads, shells, and candles… those are the markets of the future.

]]> By: Mr.Sparkle http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/comment-page-2/#comment-145817 Mr.Sparkle Fri, 13 Feb 2009 22:59:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19032#comment-145817 OK... because of the kind comments about the charts I posted up earlier, I posted a bunch of similar charts up. (Along with some blathering.) <a href="http://luckybestwash.blogspot.com/2009/02/updated-s-eps-throwing-in-refrigerator.html" rel="nofollow">See here</a> OK… because of the kind comments about the charts I posted up earlier, I posted a bunch of similar charts up. (Along with some blathering.)

See here

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