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	<title>Comments on: Friday the 13th Black Swan</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 14 Feb 2012 19:05:02 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: momus</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145980</link>
		<dc:creator>momus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2009 05:20:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145980</guid>
		<description>Taleb once constructed a narrative, titled “The Black Swan.”  The central thesis of the book was borrowed from Monty Python, “No one expects the Spanish Inquisition.”  Somebody on Wall Street read a review by a guy who read the first five pages and decided that;

“The Golden Goose (CDO’s) turned into a Black Swan. Who knew?” 

It wasn’t a black swan it was Heisenberg Uncertainty – You can’t measure the value of a CDO without (adversely) affecting its value.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Taleb once constructed a narrative, titled “The Black Swan.”  The central thesis of the book was borrowed from Monty Python, “No one expects the Spanish Inquisition.”  Somebody on Wall Street read a review by a guy who read the first five pages and decided that;</p>
<p>“The Golden Goose (CDO’s) turned into a Black Swan. Who knew?” </p>
<p>It wasn’t a black swan it was Heisenberg Uncertainty – You can’t measure the value of a CDO without (adversely) affecting its value.</p>
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		<title>By: ZackAttack</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145973</link>
		<dc:creator>ZackAttack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2009 01:57:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145973</guid>
		<description>Or better yet, two words: &quot;Shit happens.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Or better yet, two words: &#8220;Shit happens.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Bob the unemployed</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145888</link>
		<dc:creator>Bob the unemployed</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 14:06:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145888</guid>
		<description>guru:

&gt;  A better writer could have encapsulated the whole notion in 3, single-spaced pages 



IMO, most business books are like that.   A great idea or commentary that can be described in less than ten pages, plus another hundred or so pages of mind-numbing repetition in order to bring the page count up.

_Blink_ was a perfect example of that, as was _Execution_.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>guru:</p>
<p>&gt;  A better writer could have encapsulated the whole notion in 3, single-spaced pages </p>
<p>IMO, most business books are like that.   A great idea or commentary that can be described in less than ten pages, plus another hundred or so pages of mind-numbing repetition in order to bring the page count up.</p>
<p>_Blink_ was a perfect example of that, as was _Execution_.</p>
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		<title>By: SINGER</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145864</link>
		<dc:creator>SINGER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 04:14:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145864</guid>
		<description>BTW Marc Faber is interviewed at Financial Sense Online this weekend...

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BTW Marc Faber is interviewed at Financial Sense Online this weekend&#8230;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: SINGER</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145863</link>
		<dc:creator>SINGER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 04:11:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145863</guid>
		<description>The &quot;Fuck Usage Frequency&quot; tends to be an extraordinarily accurate predictor of current &quot;coolness&quot; levels...
P.S  Taleb is the isht!!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The &#8220;Fuck Usage Frequency&#8221; tends to be an extraordinarily accurate predictor of current &#8220;coolness&#8221; levels&#8230;<br />
P.S  Taleb is the isht!!!</p>
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		<title>By: AGG</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145859</link>
		<dc:creator>AGG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 03:38:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145859</guid>
		<description>Black Swan is a misnomer. Fortunate events have an even lower probability in a truly random scenario. However, a market or financial system crashed by the preponderance of CROOKS is entirely predictable. Thanks a lot, traders. 
This is part of an article explaining trader philosophy from Common Dreams:
Just a few years ago, however, the bonus cognoscenti at Trader Monthly depicted Mr. Thain as something of a piker. In an article that began with the sentence, &quot;What, did somebody forget a zero?&quot; they sneered at Mr. Thain&#039;s &quot;reported compensation,&quot; which they claimed was $6 million for 2006, back when he was CEO of the New York Stock Exchange.

What was $6 million in those days? Remember, 2006 was the year of &quot;the Biggest Bulge Ever,&quot; as the magazine tastefully put it, when &quot;the bonus pool increased to a size almost beyond comprehension.&quot; That was the year that Goldman Sachs famously distributed $16.5 billion to its employees, and if you were one of the lucky ones, Trader Monthly -- &quot;See It, Make It, Spend It,&quot; was its slogan -- stood ready to help you figure out how to blow your share properly, conspicuously, flamboyantly.

Oh, there were cars: Lamborghinis, Bentleys, Ferraris, Maseratis, sometimes described in the magazine&#039;s characteristic tone of flippant indulgence. There were airplanes, reviewed and rated in a column specifically dedicated to that purpose.

There were Scotches, including, in the &quot;Bonus Guide&quot; for 2008, a $20,000 bottle of Johnnie Walker. There were watches, mechanical ones of course, and among the most desirable were the ones with transparent faces, presumably so the little gears were visible and everyone knew the timepiece was for real.

Reading through back issues of the magazine, which was published in Europe with distribution help from The Wall Street Journal Europe, one does not get the sense that its trader readers aspired to live this way because they were jolly bon vivants. Quite the opposite. At one point in its intermittent pursuit of the best possible record player, for example, Trader Monthly described what it claimed to be a $300,000 turntable as &quot;a huge middle finger to everyone who enters your home.&quot;

If you didn&#039;t understand why someone would want to greet their guests in such a way -- and as a nation we certainly didn&#039;t -- then you didn&#039;t understand what it meant to be a trader.

Do the world a favor. Put a trader in the poor house.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Black Swan is a misnomer. Fortunate events have an even lower probability in a truly random scenario. However, a market or financial system crashed by the preponderance of CROOKS is entirely predictable. Thanks a lot, traders.<br />
This is part of an article explaining trader philosophy from Common Dreams:<br />
Just a few years ago, however, the bonus cognoscenti at Trader Monthly depicted Mr. Thain as something of a piker. In an article that began with the sentence, &#8220;What, did somebody forget a zero?&#8221; they sneered at Mr. Thain&#8217;s &#8220;reported compensation,&#8221; which they claimed was $6 million for 2006, back when he was CEO of the New York Stock Exchange.</p>
<p>What was $6 million in those days? Remember, 2006 was the year of &#8220;the Biggest Bulge Ever,&#8221; as the magazine tastefully put it, when &#8220;the bonus pool increased to a size almost beyond comprehension.&#8221; That was the year that Goldman Sachs famously distributed $16.5 billion to its employees, and if you were one of the lucky ones, Trader Monthly &#8212; &#8220;See It, Make It, Spend It,&#8221; was its slogan &#8212; stood ready to help you figure out how to blow your share properly, conspicuously, flamboyantly.</p>
<p>Oh, there were cars: Lamborghinis, Bentleys, Ferraris, Maseratis, sometimes described in the magazine&#8217;s characteristic tone of flippant indulgence. There were airplanes, reviewed and rated in a column specifically dedicated to that purpose.</p>
<p>There were Scotches, including, in the &#8220;Bonus Guide&#8221; for 2008, a $20,000 bottle of Johnnie Walker. There were watches, mechanical ones of course, and among the most desirable were the ones with transparent faces, presumably so the little gears were visible and everyone knew the timepiece was for real.</p>
<p>Reading through back issues of the magazine, which was published in Europe with distribution help from The Wall Street Journal Europe, one does not get the sense that its trader readers aspired to live this way because they were jolly bon vivants. Quite the opposite. At one point in its intermittent pursuit of the best possible record player, for example, Trader Monthly described what it claimed to be a $300,000 turntable as &#8220;a huge middle finger to everyone who enters your home.&#8221;</p>
<p>If you didn&#8217;t understand why someone would want to greet their guests in such a way &#8212; and as a nation we certainly didn&#8217;t &#8212; then you didn&#8217;t understand what it meant to be a trader.</p>
<p>Do the world a favor. Put a trader in the poor house.</p>
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		<title>By: jmay</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145858</link>
		<dc:creator>jmay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 03:34:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145858</guid>
		<description>BR, be careful when you advertise that you are a &quot;Big Old Bear.&quot;

You might attract a different fan base than you expect.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BR, be careful when you advertise that you are a &#8220;Big Old Bear.&#8221;</p>
<p>You might attract a different fan base than you expect.</p>
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		<title>By: winstonw</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145856</link>
		<dc:creator>winstonw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 03:17:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145856</guid>
		<description>Why wasn&#039;t Nouriel there?

As much as I agree with Nassim and BR, I don&#039;t tolerate swearers in confined dining spaces well, and would have given you two an earful before I backed it up physically.  If more &#039;average guys&#039; had balls, loud foul mouths would realize theirs are made of glass.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why wasn&#8217;t Nouriel there?</p>
<p>As much as I agree with Nassim and BR, I don&#8217;t tolerate swearers in confined dining spaces well, and would have given you two an earful before I backed it up physically.  If more &#8216;average guys&#8217; had balls, loud foul mouths would realize theirs are made of glass.</p>
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		<title>By: patfla</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145842</link>
		<dc:creator>patfla</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 00:10:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145842</guid>
		<description>Did you record the lunch Barry with a digital video recorder?  So that it can be posted to youtube.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Did you record the lunch Barry with a digital video recorder?  So that it can be posted to youtube.</p>
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		<title>By: guru</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/friday-the-13th-black-swan/comment-page-1/#comment-145838</link>
		<dc:creator>guru</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:54:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19055#comment-145838</guid>
		<description>Tried to read that book twice but fell asleep both times; finally gave up never making it past page 54.   A better writer could have encapsulated the whole notion in 3, single-spaced pages (maybe 5 at most) with another 2 for examples.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tried to read that book twice but fell asleep both times; finally gave up never making it past page 54.   A better writer could have encapsulated the whole notion in 3, single-spaced pages (maybe 5 at most) with another 2 for examples.</p>
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