Market futures are under pressure — we seem to be in the process of revisiting/retesting the November lows:
Dow is off ~9% year-to-date.
Should be an interesting day . . .
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Putting aside its incredible product line and pipeline of more, its still attractive valuation relative to earnings, and its $100 per share of cash that may be used for a dividend soon, Apple's stock has gone parabolic. And, parabolic moves always end one way, back to the place where the parabolic move began. Now, AAPL can of course power higher to who knows where in this move but the largest market cap stock in the world has now entered a tenuous phase, strictly technically speaking. But I digress. German investor confidence, the ZEW, in the next 6 months rose back...
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February 17th, 2009 at 6:39 am
by Peter Navarro, Ph.D.
February 9, 2009
Market Pulse
I did an interesting segment on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” last Friday about the possibility of the Dow hitting 6000. Below are the notes I made in preparation for that segment. They reflect my concern about the failure of the Obama administration to deliver a well-targeted fiscal stimulus and a coherent bank bailout plan. Juxtaposed against the continued deterioration of the global economic environment, this failure does not bode well for the markets. To view segment, click here or go to:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1032414845&play=1.
DOW 6000 CNBC Talking Points…
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/navarro/2009/0216.html
February 17th, 2009 at 7:24 am
there we go again, if only the stimulus can be well crafted we will avoid the lost decade of the Japanese. Well just remember this, during the lost decade Japan was still producing trade surpluses. Hope is such a weak damp squib when the country is still running trade deficits. The bubble was a direct reflection of the lack of “productive” investments. Still is true today.
February 17th, 2009 at 7:47 am
crafted we will avoid the lost decade of the Japanese. Well just remember this, during the lost decade Japan was still producing trade surpluses.
——————
Japan felt no need to clean up because it was cash flow positive, selling to western boomers entering the highest spending stage of their lives.
February 17th, 2009 at 8:01 am
Gold to Dow ratio keeps getting closer to Peter Schiff’s prediction of them being 1 to 1, down from a high of 43 oz of gold to the dow index.
February 17th, 2009 at 8:46 am
While we have all been navel-gazing here in the US with our stimulus bill, the rest of the world has continued to exist, and in that realm there are some really bad developments brewing – banking in particular. Watch the foreign markets this week.
February 17th, 2009 at 8:56 am
Pretty big forex moves overnight. Euro weakened, dollar strengthened, gold went higher… nothing out of bounds, but just happened all at once.
The world has that blow-uppy feeling again.
February 17th, 2009 at 9:01 am
S&P 500 under 800 should generate some more acceleration lower. We may be in the beginning stages of a “third of Third” in the final Fifth Wave lower….could get violent.
Given that, I’m sure we’ll hear about some “news” about more government intervention that could cause yet another fake rally.
784 is the 78.6% retrace on the Cash S&P500. That really should be the line in the sand for bulls/bears. In terms of classical chart reading, one must be struck by the clear inverse “flag” type formation down from 944 on the cash. It’s all very ominous looking to me.
I’m expecting some sort of bounce on the open to retrace the gap down, but it’s a sell into the 820 level on any kind of hop.
Just read an article that a lot of the new loans in China were sham transactions and that 1/3 of the new loans went for buying stocks. ugh.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/so-much-for-stimulus-chinese-loans.html
February 17th, 2009 at 9:21 am
goldbugs.
I see 981-985 as a key level of resistance for the April gold contract.
Large specs are skewed way long Gold.
Market Vane consensus is very high, but not outrageously so, yet.
GLD took in record amounts of gold as retail rushes into the GLD.
Tread lightly….I suggested trimming Gold length last week in the 950s…I would suggest trimming more into the 980s….
February 17th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Indices appear to making a big downward breakout out of the triangle formation that has held since November. Hard to see how retesting the November lows can be avoided. Once the moth sees the flame does it ever see anythng else?
February 17th, 2009 at 9:36 am
Feels like Sept-Nov period all over again. Here we go.
February 17th, 2009 at 9:47 am
“Futures under pressure” – I hate that statement which is repeated about 100 times by Becky Quick. Pressure can be applied both up and down. Is this the poltically correct way to soften the doom? Just say the futures are DOWN, way down and it doesn’t mean much about where we will end the day. Then again it might.
February 17th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Call the Plunge Protection Team!
February 17th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
I agree with Andy Tabbo cautions on gold at current levels.
I don’t understand the current rush to gold. Certainly the govt’s new spending is of concern, but in this current deflationary environment, I don’t see inflationary pressures for some time. Anticipating this future inflation seems to leave gold bugs open to BUBBLE highs. I would eventually like to add gold and silver positions, but the prices currently seem to be too elevated.
February 17th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
DJIA < 3000