Bob Bronson observes:

“GDP charts showing instead of -3.8% for 4Q it was -4.8% when properly adjusted for both the business cycle components and/or (as it turns our) for the growth in population or the labor force.

And because of a huge pop in involuntarily accumulated inventories, working them off will cause 1Q ’09 to be even worse than the reported -3.8% for 4Q ‘08, which is an important contribution to the stock market making its selling panic low during the current quarter, which is probably the “worse point in the recession,” or when it reaches its peak negative acceleration, consistent with the history of most bear market lows.


Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media, Economy

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One Response to “GDP Adjusted per Capita”

  1. Expat says:

    Hmmm, “the history of most bear market lows”? Hmmm. So, this is just another, typical bear market. Twelve months of pain and back to the moon, or something like that?

    I have a degree in economics, two of them, and I would have failed any course I took for offering up such analytical drivel. Of course, this analytical (from the Latin “anal” meaning ass and the Greek “ytical” meaning “to pull out of”) drivel is typical of the kind of commentary which got us here in the first place.

    As far as I can tell from studying this crisis, the US consumer is tapped out, the banks are broke, unemployment is massive, and government debt is approaching levels which no longer even make sense. We are deflating the biggest bubbles ever. But, not to worry, all we need is one more “panic” sell-off and all will be well.

    Did I miss something in this short article? I would hate to rant for no reason so perhaps this was satire or an overly short excerpt from a longer piece.