Comments on: Hope is a Four Letter Word http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Fri, 19 Mar 2010 04:52:31 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: warrwim http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146706 warrwim Wed, 18 Feb 2009 22:28:35 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146706 Regards to Deadhobo! I can no longer stand the constant talking over of guests on CNBC. Kudlow, who I applaud for his free market principles, has become unbearable with his bullish cheerleading, constant interruptions of guests and relentless campaign for self-affirmation. The Bloomberg gals are not as hot as CNBC's stable of Moneyhoneys but have earned my respect and eyeballs. Regards to Deadhobo! I can no longer stand the constant talking over of guests on CNBC. Kudlow, who I applaud for his free market principles, has become unbearable with his bullish cheerleading, constant interruptions of guests and relentless campaign for self-affirmation. The Bloomberg gals are not as hot as CNBC’s stable of Moneyhoneys but have earned my respect and eyeballs.

]]> By: Robin http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146539 Robin Wed, 18 Feb 2009 16:11:56 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146539 Buffet seems to be deploying capital like there's no tomorrow and he's not the type of guy to buy on hope... Buffet seems to be deploying capital like there’s no tomorrow and he’s not the type of guy to buy on hope…

]]> By: Hulkster http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146447 Hulkster Wed, 18 Feb 2009 02:02:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146447 The real bottom is not conditional on hope, just time. The world economy is going to grow this year, even if its called a recession or stagnation by pundits. It will grow more next year. Even more the year after that. It's easily seen in simple things like machinery productivity, agricultural intensification, world population growth. Very basic and forseeable drivers will cause the world economy to grow. The ability of existing index-listed corporations to siphon off a decent chunk of that growing economic activity as profits is something that has been called into question by many. This is really astonishing, and excepting the "existing index-listed" adjectives, I don't think any capitalist truly believes is in question. Corporations will make their profits over the long term. If they have the financial wherewithal to weather the current storm, and have a decent positioning in their markets, I'm a buyer. That would include most DOW components, materials, energy, Canadian banks, world telecoms, and the more advanced emerging markets. The real bottom is not conditional on hope, just time. The world economy is going to grow this year, even if its called a recession or stagnation by pundits. It will grow more next year. Even more the year after that. It’s easily seen in simple things like machinery productivity, agricultural intensification, world population growth. Very basic and forseeable drivers will cause the world economy to grow.

The ability of existing index-listed corporations to siphon off a decent chunk of that growing economic activity as profits is something that has been called into question by many. This is really astonishing, and excepting the “existing index-listed” adjectives, I don’t think any capitalist truly believes is in question. Corporations will make their profits over the long term. If they have the financial wherewithal to weather the current storm, and have a decent positioning in their markets, I’m a buyer. That would include most DOW components, materials, energy, Canadian banks, world telecoms, and the more advanced emerging markets.

]]> By: ben22 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146442 ben22 Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:35:41 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146442 don't most people have to give up hope before a real bottom is put in? don’t most people have to give up hope before a real bottom is put in?

]]> By: RagingDebate http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146441 RagingDebate Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:34:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146441 Thank you for posting the charts. I am buying equities for 5 year buy and hold in April in Energy, Healthcare, Higher Ed and I.T. in that order. My forecast put the next start of a formation of a Bull in 2013, but Washington could certainly push that out further. I like your insights Mr. Ritzhold. I am working with Jim Quinn on some very interesting blogosphere technology evolution that includes a solid debate and actionable plan engines. Data and technology is my life's passion. You probably think I weird. I am :) Jim's new site we launched for him (Jim's a beta tester of my think tanks tech refinements) is www.theburningplatform.com . I would love to speak with you directly some day. My email is jrines@ragingdebate.com Cheers, Jason Rines Thank you for posting the charts. I am buying equities for 5 year buy and hold in April in Energy, Healthcare, Higher Ed and I.T. in that order. My forecast put the next start of a formation of a Bull in 2013, but Washington could certainly push that out further.

I like your insights Mr. Ritzhold. I am working with Jim Quinn on some very interesting blogosphere technology evolution that includes a solid debate and actionable plan engines. Data and technology is my life’s passion. You probably think I weird. I am :) Jim’s new site we launched for him (Jim’s a beta tester of my think tanks tech refinements) is http://www.theburningplatform.com . I would love to speak with you directly some day. My email is jrines@ragingdebate.com

Cheers,

Jason Rines

]]> By: BigBearMortgageBroker http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146439 BigBearMortgageBroker Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:21:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146439 This just in: US Banker sez-- "Housing Market May Be Stabilizing". http://www.americanbanker.com/usb_article.html?id=20090213821YIXR8 Maybe they hired Lereah. This just in:

US Banker sez– “Housing Market May Be Stabilizing”.

http://www.americanbanker.com/usb_article.html?id=20090213821YIXR8

Maybe they hired Lereah.

]]> By: cdrueallen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146394 cdrueallen Tue, 17 Feb 2009 22:17:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146394 My bad, went back and checked your "3x exchange traded funds" blog entry and it says October 10th. Could have sworn it said October 20th. So the SP500 is off about 12% since then rather than the 20% I implied. And yes, you could have made money off that trade if you pulled out in time. Me, I sold everything I didn't want to keep for ten years in 2007 and now I'm a stodgy buy and holder - I don't even try to attempt short term trading. Just giving you a hard time about calling a bottom - figure it's ok since you're doing to so many other folks. Doesn't mean you still aren't my favorite financial blogger. My bad, went back and checked your “3x exchange traded funds” blog entry and it says October 10th. Could have sworn it said October 20th. So the SP500 is off about 12% since then rather than the 20% I implied.

And yes, you could have made money off that trade if you pulled out in time. Me, I sold everything I didn’t want to keep for ten years in 2007 and now I’m a stodgy buy and holder – I don’t even try to attempt short term trading.

Just giving you a hard time about calling a bottom – figure it’s ok since you’re doing to so many other folks. Doesn’t mean you still aren’t my favorite financial blogger.

]]> By: miamiocean http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146367 miamiocean Tue, 17 Feb 2009 20:15:07 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146367 @ trackerman: Many people with 401ks do re-balance their portfolios about once a year, at least the folks I talk to do that, however this time, people were assuming it would be no worse than the dot com bubble burst. Very few people, myself included, had the guts to really shift their portfolio at that time and my exposure to the tech stocks was not as high as some of my fellow future retirees. All the talking heads on tv last fall (I know, I know) were reassuring people that if they had more than 10 years to retirement that they should not panic and should keep their investments where they were - diversified. They went even further by issuing dire warnings that if you moved out of stocks during a downturn, you would miss the big rally upward and compromise any hope you have of earning back your losses. My friends and family all echoed those concerns last September and advised me that I was making a huge mistake in trying to preserve capital. I don't know anymore than what I think I have learned since last September, but I monitor my old stock/bond portfolio like a hawk. I don't need to regain large losses up until now, so I have more luxury to watch and wait. However, I am aware of a possible Treasury bubble burst, the specter of inflation down the road and the possibility that this may be a long downward trend. I suspect that I will not have the luxury of just sitting on the sidelines forever, and it will take constant monitoring to figure out when to take a new position. I may have been smart in hindsight up until this point, but this decision is/was in two-parts. I have only managed to navigate the first one. @ trackerman: Many people with 401ks do re-balance their portfolios about once a year, at least the folks I talk to do that, however this time, people were assuming it would be no worse than the dot com bubble burst. Very few people, myself included, had the guts to really shift their portfolio at that time and my exposure to the tech stocks was not as high as some of my fellow future retirees.

All the talking heads on tv last fall (I know, I know) were reassuring people that if they had more than 10 years to retirement that they should not panic and should keep their investments where they were – diversified. They went even further by issuing dire warnings that if you moved out of stocks during a downturn, you would miss the big rally upward and compromise any hope you have of earning back your losses. My friends and family all echoed those concerns last September and advised me that I was making a huge mistake in trying to preserve capital. I don’t know anymore than what I think I have learned since last September, but I monitor my old stock/bond portfolio like a hawk.

I don’t need to regain large losses up until now, so I have more luxury to watch and wait. However, I am aware of a possible Treasury bubble burst, the specter of inflation down the road and the possibility that this may be a long downward trend. I suspect that I will not have the luxury of just sitting on the sidelines forever, and it will take constant monitoring to figure out when to take a new position. I may have been smart in hindsight up until this point, but this decision is/was in two-parts. I have only managed to navigate the first one.

]]> By: I Work At Merrill Lynch http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146366 I Work At Merrill Lynch Tue, 17 Feb 2009 20:09:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146366 Ml-er here. Why does doll have 12 predictions this year and not 10? So he can still get 5 of them right. Anyway youre spot on but I have to get back to my desk. Wish I could say more. Please forgive any mistakes in this email as it was sent from my iPhone. Ml-er here. Why does doll have 12 predictions this year and not 10?
So he can still get 5 of them right.

Anyway youre spot on but I have to get back to my desk.
Wish I could say more.
Please forgive any mistakes in this email as it was sent from my iPhone.

]]> By: sst3d http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/hope-is-a-four-letter-word/comment-page-1/#comment-146350 sst3d Tue, 17 Feb 2009 19:15:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19295#comment-146350 While I agree optimism doesn't necessarily negate realism it is rare when it doesn't. I give you the giggling idiot Larry Kudlow, who takes a 30 point up day on the DOW (of all things) as a great sign of happy days ahead even though it closes under 8K. I'll add Dennis Kneale with the caveat that he is sooooo frikkin' stupid that he makes Maria seem almost of average intellect. Almost. Ultimately, human nature being what it is, cognitive dissonance obscures reality for most people. A new reality, without off the charts multipliers, etc., simply does not compute. Thus, they fall back on buy and hold and the like. Happy days are here again...... While I agree optimism doesn’t necessarily negate realism it is rare when it doesn’t. I give you the giggling idiot Larry Kudlow, who takes a 30 point up day on the DOW (of all things) as a great sign of happy days ahead even though it closes under 8K. I’ll add Dennis Kneale with the caveat that he is sooooo frikkin’ stupid that he makes Maria seem almost of average intellect. Almost.

Ultimately, human nature being what it is, cognitive dissonance obscures reality for most people. A new reality, without off the charts multipliers, etc., simply does not compute. Thus, they fall back on buy and hold and the like. Happy days are here again……

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