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	<title>Comments on: How to Spend Part II of the TARP</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 14 Feb 2012 18:29:42 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: rh_heath</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144346</link>
		<dc:creator>rh_heath</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2009 17:48:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144346</guid>
		<description>Can you clarify the numbers?

According to the US Census Bureau, there were just under 112 million occupied housing units in December 2008.  (link: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr408/files/q408press.pdf)

Is your reference to &quot;175 million households&quot; meant to refer to &quot;tax-payers&quot;?  If so, I&#039;m still a little confused because I believe that the number of federal personal tax forms filed each year is about 140 million, of which about 100 million end up paying tax.  

I am guessing that you are referring to 175 million &quot;individual members&quot; of tax-paying households... in which case, you are advocating approximately $2,000 x 2.7 = $5,400 per qualifying household, assuming 2.7 people per household.

Thanks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can you clarify the numbers?</p>
<p>According to the US Census Bureau, there were just under 112 million occupied housing units in December 2008.  (link: <a href="http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr408/files/q408press.pdf)" rel="nofollow">http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr408/files/q408press.pdf)</a></p>
<p>Is your reference to &#8220;175 million households&#8221; meant to refer to &#8220;tax-payers&#8221;?  If so, I&#8217;m still a little confused because I believe that the number of federal personal tax forms filed each year is about 140 million, of which about 100 million end up paying tax.  </p>
<p>I am guessing that you are referring to 175 million &#8220;individual members&#8221; of tax-paying households&#8230; in which case, you are advocating approximately $2,000 x 2.7 = $5,400 per qualifying household, assuming 2.7 people per household.</p>
<p>Thanks.</p>
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		<title>By: Greg0658</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144249</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg0658</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2009 14:23:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144249</guid>
		<description>An interesting idea.
Some will say you get more bang for your buck to shread excess capacity*, make folks buy new what they need.
Not me.

Behind my place in the alley next to my glass-plastic-paper recycle bin and garbage can and compost bin
is a red &quot;USAgain&quot; recycle your old clothes hamper.

Have ya seen the news story of all that home stuff going into 20 yard dumpsters from depressed housing?

not the story - a picture I referenced for size help
https://www.dumpster.com/

JoJo “a waste is a terrible thing to mind”

* humans included</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An interesting idea.<br />
Some will say you get more bang for your buck to shread excess capacity*, make folks buy new what they need.<br />
Not me.</p>
<p>Behind my place in the alley next to my glass-plastic-paper recycle bin and garbage can and compost bin<br />
is a red &#8220;USAgain&#8221; recycle your old clothes hamper.</p>
<p>Have ya seen the news story of all that home stuff going into 20 yard dumpsters from depressed housing?</p>
<p>not the story &#8211; a picture I referenced for size help<br />
<a href="https://www.dumpster.com/" rel="nofollow">https://www.dumpster.com/</a></p>
<p>JoJo “a waste is a terrible thing to mind”</p>
<p>* humans included</p>
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		<title>By: BG</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144229</link>
		<dc:creator>BG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2009 13:21:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144229</guid>
		<description>I could not believe my eyes when I read this. Are we really this stupid? Have we not learned anything? 

Fannie Mae to Loosen Rules for Home-Loan Refinancing 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aTu9HA5cZgQ4
By Jody Shenn
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I could not believe my eyes when I read this. Are we really this stupid? Have we not learned anything? </p>
<p>Fannie Mae to Loosen Rules for Home-Loan Refinancing<br />
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#038;sid=aTu9HA5cZgQ4" rel="nofollow">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#038;sid=aTu9HA5cZgQ4</a><br />
By Jody Shenn<br />
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg)</p>
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		<title>By: roy69al</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144214</link>
		<dc:creator>roy69al</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2009 06:01:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144214</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve thought about the need for economic stimulus, had several ideas and would like to know from you why they are BAD ideas.

Auto Industry:
Reduce Aid to or Sell
- all Municipal, Police and Gov&#039;t Vehicles to Africa, South America, Iraq ect.
- School Buses to Africa, South America, Middle East for public transportation infrastructure.

Replace US Fleet with 2009/2010 Ford, GM and Chrysler.
Distribute between the three(or more) based on amount of US based workers and available capacity to rehire and fire up mfg lines.

Benefits: Expand global market penetration of US cars
          Future sales channel for parts
          Save aid money
          Rehire Autoworkers fast and support US car parts industry
          Upgrade US police, municipal and gov&#039;t car fleet
          Make US fleet more fuel efficient

Constraint: Ensure that a majority of the profits from the gov&#039;t contract is invested in R&amp;D for the next generation of fuel efficient cars.


Computer and Education:
Reduce Aid to or Sell
- all older/used computers from schools, public colleges, libraries and gov&#039;t offices to Schools in Africa, South America, Middle East

Replace with personal computers assembled/manufactured in the US or by US companies. (Replace a Mac with a Mac and an IBM with an IBM)

Benefits: Improve US and 3rd world educational infrastructure
          Positive impact on hardware and software world markets

Health Industry:
Same as above but with hospital equipment such as Xray machines ect.

Don&#039;t stop here - many used US assets could LARGELY benefit 2nd and 3rd world countries!

We would improve the world, while saving on aid money and instead giving real assets, expanding US product penetration, improve standing in the world with this major aid program, keep our private sector busy until US consumer is confident again, investment in private sector more likely to sustain jobs compared to added gov&#039;t jobs/funds, save foreign aid money for domestic program like this one...

Please tell me why this is not a good idea?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve thought about the need for economic stimulus, had several ideas and would like to know from you why they are BAD ideas.</p>
<p>Auto Industry:<br />
Reduce Aid to or Sell<br />
- all Municipal, Police and Gov&#8217;t Vehicles to Africa, South America, Iraq ect.<br />
- School Buses to Africa, South America, Middle East for public transportation infrastructure.</p>
<p>Replace US Fleet with 2009/2010 Ford, GM and Chrysler.<br />
Distribute between the three(or more) based on amount of US based workers and available capacity to rehire and fire up mfg lines.</p>
<p>Benefits: Expand global market penetration of US cars<br />
          Future sales channel for parts<br />
          Save aid money<br />
          Rehire Autoworkers fast and support US car parts industry<br />
          Upgrade US police, municipal and gov&#8217;t car fleet<br />
          Make US fleet more fuel efficient</p>
<p>Constraint: Ensure that a majority of the profits from the gov&#8217;t contract is invested in R&amp;D for the next generation of fuel efficient cars.</p>
<p>Computer and Education:<br />
Reduce Aid to or Sell<br />
- all older/used computers from schools, public colleges, libraries and gov&#8217;t offices to Schools in Africa, South America, Middle East</p>
<p>Replace with personal computers assembled/manufactured in the US or by US companies. (Replace a Mac with a Mac and an IBM with an IBM)</p>
<p>Benefits: Improve US and 3rd world educational infrastructure<br />
          Positive impact on hardware and software world markets</p>
<p>Health Industry:<br />
Same as above but with hospital equipment such as Xray machines ect.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t stop here &#8211; many used US assets could LARGELY benefit 2nd and 3rd world countries!</p>
<p>We would improve the world, while saving on aid money and instead giving real assets, expanding US product penetration, improve standing in the world with this major aid program, keep our private sector busy until US consumer is confident again, investment in private sector more likely to sustain jobs compared to added gov&#8217;t jobs/funds, save foreign aid money for domestic program like this one&#8230;</p>
<p>Please tell me why this is not a good idea?</p>
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		<title>By: MRegan</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144125</link>
		<dc:creator>MRegan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2009 20:43:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144125</guid>
		<description>How does this plan help the Banks screw the peasants? I mean, if I&#039;m selling heroin, and the Govt wants to come in and give everybody a few months of methadone, how does that help me? I still owe the cartels.

This would delay the dream of an Ownership Society, you know- I owned your father, I own you, I will own your children.

So, me and Smirkin&#039; Bernie and Lord Jacob say &#039;No Deal&#039;. We will consider P-I-Ks (payment in kidneys-fresh ones only).

On a serious note:
It&#039;s the vig. Those whose assets (and source of income) are primarily the monies owed to them by others have to be screwed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How does this plan help the Banks screw the peasants? I mean, if I&#8217;m selling heroin, and the Govt wants to come in and give everybody a few months of methadone, how does that help me? I still owe the cartels.</p>
<p>This would delay the dream of an Ownership Society, you know- I owned your father, I own you, I will own your children.</p>
<p>So, me and Smirkin&#8217; Bernie and Lord Jacob say &#8216;No Deal&#8217;. We will consider P-I-Ks (payment in kidneys-fresh ones only).</p>
<p>On a serious note:<br />
It&#8217;s the vig. Those whose assets (and source of income) are primarily the monies owed to them by others have to be screwed.</p>
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		<title>By: DL</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144073</link>
		<dc:creator>DL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2009 18:41:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144073</guid>
		<description>The Democrats (e.g., Pelosi) will hate this one.    Their view is that the more overextended individuals are, the better off we are as a country.  

The Pelosi/Obama types want MORE debt (not less) at both the consumer level and government level.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Democrats (e.g., Pelosi) will hate this one.    Their view is that the more overextended individuals are, the better off we are as a country.  </p>
<p>The Pelosi/Obama types want MORE debt (not less) at both the consumer level and government level.</p>
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		<title>By: gclina</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144063</link>
		<dc:creator>gclina</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2009 18:18:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144063</guid>
		<description>Barry -

What about a reverse 911 call but w/the IRS.  Kick back the taxes currently being paid into the system - that way the folks that have saved and don&#039;t carry big debt participate.  Instant stimulus, and like your idea, let them make the call - pay down debt &amp; get favorable treatment, or spend it and get taxed on the reverse flow of tax-holiday income.

Forced lending and stimulus that must be spent sounds like some kind of gov&#039;t backed consumer methadone clinic - the way to get them off of the &quot;Smack&quot; of over-consumption is gov&#039;t fueled spending?

The devil&#039;s in the details and the accounting would be tricky.  It doesn&#039;t seem to matter how the recapitalization takes place, whether the banks get it or Main Street gets it, both seem hell bent to save it.  I&#039;m struggling to find out how that&#039;s bad, since recapitalization at the grass roots/micro level would help out at the macro level.

My clients are deleveraging and re-prioritizing their spending, to the point that I see this as a multi-year issue.  Personal balance sheets are now the topic of dinner table conversation and every meeting I hold these days.  The palpable nervousness has spread and seems to have taken hold, perhaps influencing consumer and investor behaviour for several quarters to come if not years.  We&#039;ll clearly be better for it once we&#039;re on the other side of this, but what kind of economical damage will happen in the meantime?

I feel like Jim Cantore of Weather Channel fame reporting live from the seawall where the waves of this self-induced Perfect Storm are cresting and flooding the streets of America.  The view here is surreal.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barry -</p>
<p>What about a reverse 911 call but w/the IRS.  Kick back the taxes currently being paid into the system &#8211; that way the folks that have saved and don&#8217;t carry big debt participate.  Instant stimulus, and like your idea, let them make the call &#8211; pay down debt &amp; get favorable treatment, or spend it and get taxed on the reverse flow of tax-holiday income.</p>
<p>Forced lending and stimulus that must be spent sounds like some kind of gov&#8217;t backed consumer methadone clinic &#8211; the way to get them off of the &#8220;Smack&#8221; of over-consumption is gov&#8217;t fueled spending?</p>
<p>The devil&#8217;s in the details and the accounting would be tricky.  It doesn&#8217;t seem to matter how the recapitalization takes place, whether the banks get it or Main Street gets it, both seem hell bent to save it.  I&#8217;m struggling to find out how that&#8217;s bad, since recapitalization at the grass roots/micro level would help out at the macro level.</p>
<p>My clients are deleveraging and re-prioritizing their spending, to the point that I see this as a multi-year issue.  Personal balance sheets are now the topic of dinner table conversation and every meeting I hold these days.  The palpable nervousness has spread and seems to have taken hold, perhaps influencing consumer and investor behaviour for several quarters to come if not years.  We&#8217;ll clearly be better for it once we&#8217;re on the other side of this, but what kind of economical damage will happen in the meantime?</p>
<p>I feel like Jim Cantore of Weather Channel fame reporting live from the seawall where the waves of this self-induced Perfect Storm are cresting and flooding the streets of America.  The view here is surreal.</p>
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		<title>By: ben22</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144058</link>
		<dc:creator>ben22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2009 18:08:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144058</guid>
		<description>Barry, 

I agree most of the other plans are nonsense but your plan is nothing I&#039;d agree to either.

First, $2,000 isn&#039;t going to do anything for people that really need money.

Figure out how much a person who lost his/her job a while ago must pay once Cobra runs out.  Have food prices gone down?  What if you have a child in college?  

Take three normal debts of a household:

$200k mortgage with a fixed rate

P&amp;I monthly payment:  Maybe around $850 on the low end
Auto Loan with balance at 4-6% interest:  $300/month
Credit Card payment $8k balance @ 15% interest:  $200/mo thinking they were actually going to try and pay that off.


I&#039;d be a little more careful about things like:

Households will reduce their indebtedness by a significant amount;   (the scenario I gave above is not exactly a &quot;highly leveraged&quot; household)

To your comment I&#039;d say.... significant? It&#039;s 2 grand!  And then you follow it up with this:


The typical family has $8,000 in credit card and other revolving credit debt;

Wait a minute?  

What is $2k going to do for someone that has say just a $100,000 mortgage payment.  The answer is nothing.  An $8,000 mastercard balance at 20% interest, nothing.  An auto loan for $15k at 6% interest, nothing.  

You can&#039;t even buy 1 new macbook pro with $2k.

I like how you are thinking about how this is better than just taking tax money for the banks and consumers get nothing in return but when you start to put the numbers together for a household it becomes obvious just how big this problem is.

Further, then you suggest that after all this debt reduction people could go out and spend a little more.  I like how you stress spend a little more, but,  on what?  Let&#039;s say they were responsible and then only spent 25% of the $2k amount (I&#039;m assuming these households in need don&#039;t have discretionary income, they spend on needs)  That probably goes right back on the credit card btw.  These people don&#039;t have savings and as you posted here not long ago, average household income has 60% or so going towards neccessities.  So what kind of stuff can you buy for $500.  If you are a family of 4 or 5 that might, might, just get you food for the month.

I&#039;m certain you probably don&#039;t come in contact with many clients or friends that are overextended but I can tell you without doubt that $2k for someone overextended will do nothing but delay the inevitable.

I appreciate that you are thinking about different approaches but I don&#039;t think this would work at all.  

No, I do not have a better solution.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barry, </p>
<p>I agree most of the other plans are nonsense but your plan is nothing I&#8217;d agree to either.</p>
<p>First, $2,000 isn&#8217;t going to do anything for people that really need money.</p>
<p>Figure out how much a person who lost his/her job a while ago must pay once Cobra runs out.  Have food prices gone down?  What if you have a child in college?  </p>
<p>Take three normal debts of a household:</p>
<p>$200k mortgage with a fixed rate</p>
<p>P&amp;I monthly payment:  Maybe around $850 on the low end<br />
Auto Loan with balance at 4-6% interest:  $300/month<br />
Credit Card payment $8k balance @ 15% interest:  $200/mo thinking they were actually going to try and pay that off.</p>
<p>I&#8217;d be a little more careful about things like:</p>
<p>Households will reduce their indebtedness by a significant amount;   (the scenario I gave above is not exactly a &#8220;highly leveraged&#8221; household)</p>
<p>To your comment I&#8217;d say&#8230;. significant? It&#8217;s 2 grand!  And then you follow it up with this:</p>
<p>The typical family has $8,000 in credit card and other revolving credit debt;</p>
<p>Wait a minute?  </p>
<p>What is $2k going to do for someone that has say just a $100,000 mortgage payment.  The answer is nothing.  An $8,000 mastercard balance at 20% interest, nothing.  An auto loan for $15k at 6% interest, nothing.  </p>
<p>You can&#8217;t even buy 1 new macbook pro with $2k.</p>
<p>I like how you are thinking about how this is better than just taking tax money for the banks and consumers get nothing in return but when you start to put the numbers together for a household it becomes obvious just how big this problem is.</p>
<p>Further, then you suggest that after all this debt reduction people could go out and spend a little more.  I like how you stress spend a little more, but,  on what?  Let&#8217;s say they were responsible and then only spent 25% of the $2k amount (I&#8217;m assuming these households in need don&#8217;t have discretionary income, they spend on needs)  That probably goes right back on the credit card btw.  These people don&#8217;t have savings and as you posted here not long ago, average household income has 60% or so going towards neccessities.  So what kind of stuff can you buy for $500.  If you are a family of 4 or 5 that might, might, just get you food for the month.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m certain you probably don&#8217;t come in contact with many clients or friends that are overextended but I can tell you without doubt that $2k for someone overextended will do nothing but delay the inevitable.</p>
<p>I appreciate that you are thinking about different approaches but I don&#8217;t think this would work at all.  </p>
<p>No, I do not have a better solution.</p>
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		<title>By: Mannwich</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144047</link>
		<dc:creator>Mannwich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2009 17:47:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144047</guid>
		<description>@mkkby:  I don&#039;t think many of us are &quot;squeamish&quot; about it at all, but we just know the feds probably don&#039;t have the cojones to do that, so we&#039;re trying to find a somewhat palatable &quot;Plan B&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@mkkby:  I don&#8217;t think many of us are &#8220;squeamish&#8221; about it at all, but we just know the feds probably don&#8217;t have the cojones to do that, so we&#8217;re trying to find a somewhat palatable &#8220;Plan B&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: mkkby</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/how-to-spend-tarp-part-ii/comment-page-2/#comment-144036</link>
		<dc:creator>mkkby</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2009 17:34:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=18165#comment-144036</guid>
		<description>Why is everyone so squeamish about just putting the banks in receivership?  Let the bad ones die so sunlight can reach the good ones.  We don&#039;t want the incompetent managers continuing to mis-manage, do we?  Any bailout or attempt to sweep bad asset under the rug just gives bad banks a competitive advantage over the good ones.  The entire industry is weakened by that.

Prevention is even easier.  Just legislate total transparency in financial statements.  If banks/corporations can no longer obfuscate and manage earnings, stock and bond investors will naturally punish risky behavior before it threatens the whole system.

This is really easy folks.  Stop over complicating it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why is everyone so squeamish about just putting the banks in receivership?  Let the bad ones die so sunlight can reach the good ones.  We don&#8217;t want the incompetent managers continuing to mis-manage, do we?  Any bailout or attempt to sweep bad asset under the rug just gives bad banks a competitive advantage over the good ones.  The entire industry is weakened by that.</p>
<p>Prevention is even easier.  Just legislate total transparency in financial statements.  If banks/corporations can no longer obfuscate and manage earnings, stock and bond investors will naturally punish risky behavior before it threatens the whole system.</p>
<p>This is really easy folks.  Stop over complicating it.</p>
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