My Bad . . .
By Barry Ritholtz - February 20th, 2009, 3:54PM
Sorry about today — it was (according to an emailer) all my fault. (Never mind that the futures were down 140 earlier this morning, and its an expiry) it was my bad.
Actually, this headline references this morning’s Bloomberg radio interview, and it was in the context of Nationalization — common shareholders get wiped out, the stock goes to zero, and owners become the taxpayers and bond holders.
February 20th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Should we call it the Ritholtz ‘poot’?
February 20th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Actually, I can’t thank you enough. It’s been a very good day. I probably owe you a commission of sorts.
February 20th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Hit the Wish list!
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?tag=thebigpictu09-20&path=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2Fgp%2Fregistry%2FPIBBI29EORHA
February 20th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
@ karen
call it a lagniappe, a freebie rather than an obligation. don’t want anyone to get the wrong idea about BR
February 20th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
It’s all your fault, Barry. Those damn rumors keep bringing down our fine, upstanding banks. When do you get taken away in cuffs? Perp walk coming….
February 20th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Gold going to $5,360 within year….just remember that, “I told you so.”
February 20th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Your friends at Citi are not buying dinner in the city tonight, right?
Ritholtz, party of one!
February 20th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
BR: Here is something to add to your wish list.
http://www.amazon.com/Thick-Face-Black-Heart-Philosophy/dp/0446670200/ref=pd_bbs_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1235164599&sr=8-1
February 20th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
@Justin,
I almost sold my gold today but didn’t. NEM was up nice, which was good for me. I’m am scared that all the monkeys on tv are rec.ing it now.
Is your call based on the DOW and gold crossing? That may turn out to be a great call. Seems like we are on our way.
February 20th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
BR,
All your fault, what did Citi close at yesterday 3 bucks? What an idiot that said that to you.
February 20th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
[in my Mother-in-Law's voice] So, YOU’RE the one…
February 20th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Never mind that the futures were down 140 earlier this morning, and its an expiry
Bah, details.
February 20th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
And Barry wonders why they don’t want to publish his book.
February 20th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
Speaking of criminal activity and firms, looking more and more like ‘ol Bernie never bought a single security for 13 years. Is it really possible that he acted alone? Do Santa Claus and the tooth fairy really exist?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alYrIDoF2Css&refer=home
February 20th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Is that hissing sound coming from air being let of asset prices or the inflation of Barry’s ego?
February 20th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
BR: is the nationalization CW getting ahead of itself? They could be deciding to tough it out.
February 20th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
See what happens when you make a name for yourself? You fart in the wrong direction and markets wither. Butterfly effect.
February 20th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
Started to listen to it at 7:10 but gotta tell the interruptions every 5 minutes for another commercial/update of futures makes for a very disjointed interview. Wish they would devote 15 minutes of continuous discussion thereby making for continuity. After a while, about 7:20 or so just switched to a music station.
February 20th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Oh, my. People can’t stand to hear the truth, huh? ;^)
Sorry, no tears for Citi from me. Evil company, needs to go away forever.
February 20th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
“Citigroup going to zero”. So . . . where is the shocking news?
February 20th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
As Colbert would say:
“Ritholtz!!!” [shaking fists at screen]
February 20th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
…off topic…
Fast Money has suddenly become the oasis of sanity at CNBC. Maybe it’s that Macke’s out this week (the Curly-on-crack schtick is getting stale) but Dylan’s got his groove on.
Hell, these guys are actually suggesting solutions. Maybe they’re right and maybe not. But it beats the parade of traders who just bitch about “the government” with no hint of a real solution (Steve Grasso, pick up on line 1).
February 20th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Macke’s THE BOMB!
February 20th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
I feel like Barry is getting to popular now. He’ll probably leave us soon. Please Barry don’t do it.
February 20th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
but it is going to zero – is that the joke?
February 20th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
who put the ‘frownie’-face on the far right-side of line one?
that’s really funny..
February 20th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
LOL
Barry, how could you! everything was juuuuusssssst fine until you opened your mouth! LOL
you broke our CitiGoop!
can stocks trade at Negative Integers? If so, your Citi prediction will have proved to be too generous
February 20th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
“and it was in the context of Nationalization”
You’re only telling it like it is. The banks are effectively nationalized now with our money. Time to shoot the mortally wounded, get them the hell off the Street and get on with our lives. Our government is not that lame that they don’t realize this…just too conflicted/corrupted.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Are we dire yet?
UPDATE 1-Soros sees no bottom for world financial “collapse”
8:21 PM ET 2/20/09 | Reuters
(Adds earlier comments from Paul Volcker)
NEW YORK, Feb 20 (Reuters) – Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.
Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.
He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system.
“We witnessed the collapse of the financial system,” Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. “It was placed on life support, and it’s still on life support. There’s no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom.”
His comments echoed those made earlier at the same conference by Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman who is now a top adviser to President Barack Obama.
Volcker said industrial production around the world was declining even more rapidly than in the United States, which is itself under severe strain.
“I don’t remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world,” Volcker said. (Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa and Juan Lagorio; Editing by Gary Hill)
February 20th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
When you guys have finished the gig here they’ve got some great openings with the three witches in Macbeth.
@Pat G. Says:
“You’re only telling it like it is. The banks are effectively nationalized now with our money. Time to shoot the mortally wounded, get them the hell off the Street and get on with our lives. Our government is not that lame that they don’t realize this…just too conflicted/corrupted.”
………Ever ask yourself why…. if its the get out of jail free card…. they haven’t they done it already….oh yes…you said…. they’re just too conflicted/corrupted….well that makes a lot of sense…..or maybe it’s a misplaced sentimental attachment to free market principles….oh yeah…that’s it probably.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
@ ottovbvs: “or maybe it’s a misplaced sentimental attachment to free market principles”
Free market principles? What are you smoking?
February 20th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
BR,
I didn’t see your *call* until later, around lunchtime. That’s when I bought Feb 210 puts in SKF at $4 apiece.
Thanks bro!
February 20th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
BR,
At this rate, pretty soon you’re gonna’ have a mindless cult following like those cable business network guys – people will be jumping off of bridges as soon as you say the word!
I guess I still don’t get the gold thing. Seems like playing red on roulette at this point. Could double, could continue to play but sooner or later the house’s odds advantage is bound to catch up with you and your stash is gonna’ go down unless you walk at just the right time. Only difference is roulette is way more fun and you get free watered down drinks! It’s purely a gamble at this point, I don’t get how anyone can say with certainty where it’s going to go.
February 21st, 2009 at 12:42 am
BR @ 4:00 P.M.
636 items…!
February 21st, 2009 at 12:43 am
@ Karen
Quoting headline: Soros sees no bottom for world financial “collapse”
Isn’t he the genius who is “eyeing potential opportunities” in NIGERIA!!!
from WSU online Deal Journal: “George Soros: His $20 billion hedge fund is eyeing potential opportunities in Nigeria’s banking sector. [FT.com]”
I’ll bet he’s short every stock in the U.S.
Just sayin’
February 21st, 2009 at 1:17 am
The “bank nationalization” hysteria is as silly as the “we are running out of oil” mania that we had last summer – an amazing groupthink mentality (stupidity).
I was expecting such silly comments from Hugo Chavez but not from Barry Ritholtz.
Sigh…
Disclaimer: I have bought Citi @ $1.75-1.85; BAC @ $2.60-2.80; WFC @ $8.90-9.10 today.
February 21st, 2009 at 5:47 am
Well, I actually wonder if Goldman Sachs is preferable to Chavez. Can’t say either has much do do with capitalism. As far a nationalization being a problem, then give them nothing. No reason not to be fair. Chase and Wells and Goldman, we wish they were 0 zere 0.
February 21st, 2009 at 10:11 am
@Justin
Your $5,000 and change price prediction (to be achieved in ‘09, no less) sounded preposterous, at first. But, imagination is the key to investing success and I had to wonder what would cause you to be correct. Unfortunately, I could only imagine more questions, and they are questions that I am ill-equipped to answer. To wit:
What does the OTC derivative payout picture look like if the big banks are bankrupted or nationalized? Would there be a chain reaction in related derivatives? Unrelated derivatives? Government debt?
@gold worriers – Now you have something to worry about, and it’s not a declining gold price.
February 21st, 2009 at 12:08 pm
@ Thomas
Do you really think that after all the assets and liabilities of these firms are tallied that there’s even a cent of value in an equity share of C and BAC? And that’s today’s valuation. Lehman had a 140(ish) BILLION dollar hole in their balance sheet after equity holders were wiped out. C and BAC are exponentially bigger, exponentially more exposed to the consumer, exponentially more exposed to mortgages. Is this just a short term trade for you, or do you REALLY think that the ‘equity’ component of the cap stack at those banks is worth anything?