Comments on: S&P500 Earnings & Dividends http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 17:15:04 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: FLFish http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148927 FLFish Fri, 27 Feb 2009 19:56:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148927 Thanks to all for the responses! Thanks to all for the responses!

]]> By: ironman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148699 ironman Thu, 26 Feb 2009 19:49:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148699 Here's the <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/02/even-deeper-earnings-bucket.html" rel="nofollow">updated version of the chart</a>, showing the data as we know it today. Here’s the updated version of the chart, showing the data as we know it today.

]]> By: Maj Tom http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148577 Maj Tom Thu, 26 Feb 2009 02:31:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148577 Wished I could have chimed in on Jeremy Seigel earlier - but better late than never... Here is the problem Mr Seigel - go back and calculate the index using your method - THEN determine whether the market is cheap. One can't compare the index now using your metric without making a long term comparison, which, is nearly impossible given all the companies that have changed etc... The whole point of the valuation method is to use the SAME comparison throughout the ENTIRE length of time, not come up with a new valuation and say it is "cheap" by historical standards. Idiocy at it's finest... Can't even believe the editorial was written... Wished I could have chimed in on Jeremy Seigel earlier – but better late than never…

Here is the problem Mr Seigel – go back and calculate the index using your method – THEN determine whether the market is cheap. One can’t compare the index now using your metric without making a long term comparison, which, is nearly impossible given all the companies that have changed etc… The whole point of the valuation method is to use the SAME comparison throughout the ENTIRE length of time, not come up with a new valuation and say it is “cheap” by historical standards.

Idiocy at it’s finest… Can’t even believe the editorial was written…

]]> By: Greg0658 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148575 Greg0658 Thu, 26 Feb 2009 02:19:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148575 traded pinkish .. I say good .. time for corporations to borrow from our excess cash in savings with payback requirements .. instead of drop the coin in the slot .. *#* .. better luck next pull .. we'll put that donation to good use ps - I do appreciate the tv programming they provide nearly free of charge like Verizon wireless's .. Perfectly unPretentious Presentaion ... should have aired at the SuperBowl .. I love it .. gotta catch it on tape traded pinkish .. I say good .. time for corporations to borrow from our excess cash in savings with payback requirements .. instead of drop the coin in the slot .. *#* .. better luck next pull .. we’ll put that donation to good use

ps – I do appreciate the tv programming they provide nearly free of charge
like Verizon wireless’s .. Perfectly unPretentious Presentaion … should have aired at the SuperBowl .. I love it .. gotta catch it on tape

]]> By: harold hecuba http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148573 harold hecuba Thu, 26 Feb 2009 01:26:22 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148573 if i had to venture a guess i would say we are on the verge of an all out meltdown. i think that meltdown was about to occur on monday. if you had watched the global bond markets they all traded pinkish which is quite unusual while equities were getting pummelled. this was an organized situation where money was going nowhere but to SUPPORT global equities. this has become quite a frequent event. stocks remain overvalud in every metric. if i had to venture a guess i would say we are on the verge of an all out meltdown. i think that meltdown was about to occur on monday. if you had watched the global bond markets they all traded pinkish which is quite unusual while equities were getting pummelled. this was an organized situation where money was going nowhere but to SUPPORT global equities. this has become quite a frequent event. stocks remain overvalud in every metric.

]]> By: harold hecuba http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148569 harold hecuba Thu, 26 Feb 2009 01:18:36 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148569 yeah i have an opinion on jeremy siegel. his mind has deteriorated immensely over the years and now he is ready for the looney bin. the man has gone completely mad yeah i have an opinion on jeremy siegel. his mind has deteriorated immensely over the years and now he is ready for the looney bin. the man has gone completely mad

]]> By: VoiceFromTheWilderness http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148542 VoiceFromTheWilderness Wed, 25 Feb 2009 23:20:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148542 Ya gotta love the sky rocketing earnings starting Q209. That would be because? Oh right V-shaped 'recession'. Hold on to your hats kids, there's a wake up call coming. Ya gotta love the sky rocketing earnings starting Q209. That would be because? Oh right V-shaped ‘recession’. Hold on to your hats kids, there’s a wake up call coming.

]]> By: scorpio http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148538 scorpio Wed, 25 Feb 2009 23:11:13 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148538 why use a multiple of 15? i keep seeing and hearing the number 15, mostly because that tends to validate today's levels, using $50 eps. but the eps is surely heading lower than that, probly a range of $30-$40 over the next couple years. and while 15 is the average P/E ratio since 1900, these are hardly average times. and the low end of the range, which we've hit many times, is 7-10 X, and that low end can persist for years, as witness most recently the late 70s-early 80s. inflation may have helped to make the break-out low in P/Es then. who knows what will drive us there this time. but i'd be thinking about that low end a little more than any historical average. why use a multiple of 15? i keep seeing and hearing the number 15, mostly because that tends to validate today’s levels, using $50 eps. but the eps is surely heading lower than that, probly a range of $30-$40 over the next couple years. and while 15 is the average P/E ratio since 1900, these are hardly average times. and the low end of the range, which we’ve hit many times, is 7-10 X, and that low end can persist for years, as witness most recently the late 70s-early 80s. inflation may have helped to make the break-out low in P/Es then. who knows what will drive us there this time. but i’d be thinking about that low end a little more than any historical average.

]]> By: Cybernaught http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148522 Cybernaught Wed, 25 Feb 2009 21:57:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148522 That is quite an AMAZING chart. The difference between the forecast earnings charts is a derivative of a derivative and thus has a unique divinatory power. In this case, that power divines that things are much worse than they seem. Capitalize "much". That is quite an AMAZING chart. The difference between the forecast earnings charts is a derivative of a derivative and thus has a unique divinatory power. In this case, that power divines that things are much worse than they seem. Capitalize “much”.

]]> By: Bob_in_MA http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/sp500-earnings-dividends/comment-page-1/#comment-148512 Bob_in_MA Wed, 25 Feb 2009 21:32:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20122#comment-148512 I just did a search and found this. Check the date, heehee. Jeremy Siegel Says Get Ready to Buy By Gregg Greenberg TheStreet.com Staff Reporter 8/10/2007 11:55 AM EDT URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/funds/etf/10373603.html The "Wizard of Wharton" says don't worry. "If investors have cash on the sidelines, they should not wait too long to put it to use," says Jeremy Siegel, Wharton business school professor at the University of Pennsylvania and well-known markets commentator. "There are good values out there in equities -- especially in financial stocks -- and you will be rewarded in the long run if you start dollar cost-averaging now." I just did a search and found this. Check the date, heehee.

Jeremy Siegel Says Get Ready to Buy

By Gregg Greenberg TheStreet.com Staff Reporter

8/10/2007 11:55 AM EDT

URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/funds/etf/10373603.html

The “Wizard of Wharton” says don’t worry.

“If investors have cash on the sidelines, they should not wait too long to put it to use,” says Jeremy Siegel, Wharton business school professor at the University of Pennsylvania and well-known markets commentator. “There are good values out there in equities — especially in financial stocks — and you will be rewarded in the long run if you start dollar cost-averaging now.”

]]>