Pah-leease enough. I suggest you read “The Crash”–the NY times nailed the crash only a few months before it, the WSJ and Barrons did not. Later, Barron’s changed its tune, and still got people on the right page before the second leg.

The parallels between then and now are amazing–no not all the same, but amazing. I’m in the process of compiling a time-line from the book with what happened then and now, what’s different and what’s the same [some are good, some differences bad, IMO]. If interested I’ll send it your way.

“Stocks sold off again today as the markets is pricing in the likely impact of a George W. Bush presidency.
Since Bush has emerged as the polling leader in March, stocks have been hit hard. The NASDAQ has fallen 37%, while the S&P500 and the Dow are both down 20%, placing equities squarely in bear market territory.
Various Wall Street strategists have expressed concern regarding how a new set of Bush monetary and overseas policies could impact equities.
“My biggest concern is that the promised Bush tax cuts will be in extremely expensive. That would create huge deficits and be extremely inflationary” said Peter Leslie, a trader on the CBOT floor.” Governor Bush has promised to reduce captial gains and dividend taxes, and lower the marginal rates on the nation’s biggest earners. He has not explained how these tax cuts will be funded.
Maverick Capital fund manager Henry Carlyle is more concerned with government spending than Tax cuts. The Dallas resident stated “I have followed Governor Bush in Texas, and fiscal discipline is not his strong suit.” Cabot expects a big increase in federal spending and budget deficits that will have ramifications for both inflation and an interest rates.
Vanguard chief John Bogle is more concerned with a lax regulatory environment: “A return to the sort of crony capitalism that we’ve seen in the past would wreak havoc with investor confidence. We need a strong SEC to make sure companies are transparent, and report their accounting fully and fairly. We should not throw the individual investor to a wild and woolly free market that is totally lacking in supervision.” The Vanguard chief has long been a proponent of a strong regulatory environment for the protection of individual investors. “I do not see that sort of regime under a President Bush.”
Robert Rubin, the Treasury Secretary under Presdient Clinton who retired last year to join the Board of Citigroup, focused on the Federal Reserve. “The next president needs to make sure that the Federal Reserve fulfills its obligations as bank supervisor. I am concerned that Governor Bush, as President, would move away from strict regulation of markets for ideological reasons.” Rubin, a Democrat, warned of negative repercussions for the housing and financial sectors. “[Since joining Citigroup], I have been looking into the issue of derivatives. This is another area that requires close scrutiny from both the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve. I see Bush lacking expertise in this crucial area.”
Goldman Sachs chief investment strategist Robert Hormat, was even blunter in his assessment of a Bush Presidency: “I am looking for a market crash as a reaction to the election of George W. Bush. Investors should brace themselves for losses of 50% or more — and even worse in the Tech sector — should he be elected.”
Legendary legendary oil trader T. Boone Pickens is more optimistic. “We should expect several military conflicts in the Middle East under President Bush (this was pre 9/11!), and while this may not be great for the economy it will be terrific for my energy holdings.” If Bush gets elected, Pickens plans on opening a new oil based hedge fund, and is forecasting 100% increase in the price of oil to $40. “I’m an Oil, George is an Oil man, and his VP DIck Cheney is an Oil man. I expect energy returns to significantly outperform equity markets over the next eight years” he said.”

From CR…don’t watch this if you’ve eaten…

I see inflation getting a foot in the door (you mentioned “I mean real money not credit”) … look past money and think what money buys .. items you need to survive .. the providers of those basic needs have rein in this current situation. If there is/was a free economy without “to big to fail / to big to fight” monopolies then inflation has an enemy.
Machine propulsion fuel is a big one. Food, coal, oil, uranium.

E Says: “we have runaway inflation is if the Stimulus” works.
Hum – that seems to be the battle line of the 2009 Elected Lobbys … More destruction or else your worthless .. beware VS. Save Us .. beware.

This whole post of mine is why this issue is so Americas Jihad. My issue is with rule changes mid game that favor one team over another. My education on this site has me in the camp of the joe6packs who work for the industry captains.

What a touchy feely mess .. rule changes make .. made mid game.

investorinpa – reminds me of the 9/11 factor.
danm – woke me up to not get tired .. juiced .. complacent .. again.

That article is actually very correct on a micro-basis…in practice, it blew up on a macro-basis, because for every company that was underleveraged, there was a bank leveraged 30 to one.

Two more theories I learned in Finance…if a company’s stock price is overvalued, management makes stupid decisions (see banks, tech companies)…and a company’s complexity can be measured by the number of pages in its 10k.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/03/06/8370659/index.htm

Right now people have trouble understanding how the governement is going to get money into the system but it’s easy and there are signs. Here in Canada, our government has been announcing sitmulus checks left, right and centre. Perfect example: billions for retraining programs. Great. People getting paid while producing nothing.

If you want to bet on continuing deflation, be my guest but for me deflation is my best case scenario. Rampant inflation the other hand is my nightmare.

Here’s my rationale… Who’s the biggesy debtor? The US government. Who wins with inflation? Debtors = the US government. Would I bet against that machine? I’ve never heard of a country that could not produce inflation when it served its purposes. Come on, France managed to do it, Zimbabwe perfected it, how could America the Great not accomplish such a feat?

My guess is that America is still so full of itself that it will generate inflation thinking it will be able to stop it when it wants to.

I think this is referring to the large drop that happened in March 2000, well before 911, but one month after this cover.

I recall it well as I was laying in a hospital bed in Houston after a little heart surgery watching the news with my dad. We drove by Enron Field on the way from the airport to the hospital as I recall. Those were the days.