100 Days from Major Troughs
By Barry Ritholtz - March 31st, 2009, 3:30PM
Credit Suisse Fixed Income Group noted the diversity of performance around the first 100 days of major
market lows in US equities.
The first of these shows the past episodes that might turn out to be the most relevant. Note that one of these is the post 1929 crash bear market rally – it just happened to be 46% or so over five months. Which is actually typical of the first year of major bull markets.
The second shows some less exciting episodes that were nonetheless significant market bottoms rather than mere staging posts towards significant new lows.
Nice chart!
>
>
Source:
The First 100 Days
Jonathan Wilmot, James Sweeney, Matthias Klein
Credit Suisse, Fixed Income Research, 26 March 2009
http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
March 31st, 2009 at 3:33 pm
test of the “kass” bottom.
is it a “glass” bottom or a “generational” bottom.
close above or below 815.
considering all the munitions still in the dump – i would put my money on the fragile bottom.
who knows – he may get another quarter to play with. charts have already voted no in most time frames though.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:37 pm
yikes – exit polls look ugly.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:42 pm
“test of the “kass” bottom.”
Strictly speaking it is the Leftback Bottom. Dougie was a few days early.
@guidepostings – you really sweat every tick don’t you? As BR will tell you, the intra-day is mostly noise.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I think we’ll see Leftback’s bottom again before July.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Fading today. Picked up small amount of SRS again. Ominous sign if we close on weakness here?
March 31st, 2009 at 3:51 pm
I agree, DL. We might see it in April, actually, but my guess is it will be May.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:52 pm
i’m a trader. of course i watch every tick. that’s how i make a living.
and btw – this close is a bit more important than “intra-day noise”.
best of luck.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Agreed. Just tweaking. I enjoy reading your real time thoughts. All the best.
Close above 800 is constructive, for now. Range between 780 and 825?
We’ll see whether SPX 810 proves to be a lower high, or an insignificant level.
SPX 825 is the target of significance.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Weak close. Matter of time before we resume our regularly scheduled depression.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:03 pm
faded- what I thought- I’m a freakin’ genius
March 31st, 2009 at 4:05 pm
that was a nasty peak under the hood – some thought we had stepped into a porsche only to realize it’s been a yugo jacked up on nitrous.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Hey lefty…we lost more than 100 points in the last hour…any thoughts about earnings season?
March 31st, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Bruce,
I’m not sure the last hour tells you anything about that.
AA was up almost 10% and they are up next week.
I bet the quarter is terrible for them.
Earnings season is just going to tell us how much has already been factored into stock prices, don’t we all know the numbers will be pretty ugly, if not really ugly?
Can’t wait to see all the waste of time discussion about p/e that follows the numbers.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Let’s use round numbers:
From 10/2007 peak to trough= -50%
Required to recover= +100%
Current recovery= +20%
Wall Street’s perspective- not being in the market was a missed opportunity.
Main Street’s perspective- fuck you, Wall Street, I’m still down 40%. Thanks for nothing!
March 31st, 2009 at 4:28 pm
I locked in my options through May. Max 8-10% gain from here if it keeps going up, or I just get to keep my 2%.
I think the hints from the financials that Mar suddenly turned bad compared the first 2 months given in the “leaked” memo’s will start the wave down. The memo’s lacked the disclosure that the first 2 months were good because of AIG payoffs.
There might be a late May early June start of summer rally, it will die off of course.
The next few months are not going to look good. Things are going to be foggy for comparisons due to the start of the govt interventions. First up Stimulus rebate check spending.
Expectations of earnings still needs to be lowered. Earnings out of Europe are going to be BAD.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:29 pm
@tCA,
but you didn’t include dividends. lol.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:31 pm
@ben22-
My bad.
Current recovery (revised)= +23%
March 31st, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Wall Street’s perspective- not having a big bonus = fewer nights snorting coke with Czech strippers.
Main Street’s perspective- not having a job = water with a slice instead of Coke with Extra large pizza.
@ben22: I have been musing earnings, and I think there may indeed be some stocks where Ugly is Beautiful. Generally though I imagine that one wouldn’t want to be long tech and retail, could be unexpectedly awful.
Waste of time discussion is guaranteed.
@Bruce: we lost more than 100 points in the last hour but I am still owed ONE JUICY BRUCEY BURGER.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:37 pm
@Todd:
said:
The memo’s lacked the disclosure that the first 2 months were good because of AIG payoffs.
I think there was something much more important than this when it came to the memo’s and the media reporting on them, and this is not the whole story. It was the fact that the “earnings” they talked about were operational earnings. You know, before anything actually happens on the balance sheet.
Really, if you can’t make an operational profit as a bank in this environment, you never will.
Your conclusion about the banks starting a move down seems to miss the fact that the govt could at any point in the next few weeks decide to change the rules once again, in favor of these banks. I don’t know how anyone makes any compelling calls with a bank right now. No doubt they will lead or greatly influence market direction, but if that is up or down certainly isn’t clear.
further, I’m not seeing these hints. I think you had a combination of two things with the banks.
1. Window dressing the last few weeks.
2. Profit taking? C is up something like 160% since this move started, BAC the same. If I had gotten in on that I sure as hell would have already cashed out.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Bruce N Tennessee Said:
March 31st, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Hey lefty…we lost more than 100 points in the last hour…any thoughts about earnings season?
reply:
————–
It doesn’t matter. Assume an economy with recent massive and continuing layoffs, no good recent macro news except for occasional flashes of optimism, nothing nice to look at on the horizon, and the best news of late is the US will be hold the other side of GM warranty obligations and what would you say?
Oh Wait, this is real. You don’t have to assume anything.
Implication: DOW 36000!!!
March 31st, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Re my recent post:
For The Newbies … What’s wrong with that picture?
March 31st, 2009 at 4:46 pm
This is unlike any event we’ve seen in modern times. I don’t know why these research analysts constantly look to past recessions for guidance. This is a totally different beast and will end differently from anything we’ve seen in the past. Especially so few data points. Only in the stock market can you pick out 5 pieces of past data and come to a conclusion that people find credibility in….
~~~
BR: On the other hand, remaining willfully ignorant of what happened in the past doesn’t sound like a great strategy.
These are interesting charts. Take from them what you will.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:46 pm
am i having freaking daja vu here?
didn’t the conversation about doug kass and leftback happen a few days ago???
March 31st, 2009 at 4:59 pm
TPC,
I agree with your conclusions but I looked at your blog site and noticed you post the musing of great thinkers. From personal experience, let me tell you of something that has been personally refreshing. I stopped reading RealClearMarkets, substantially much of MarketWatch and Business Week, and just reviewed Yahoo business to get a feel for what is in the news. This has been going on since well before 12/31.
Over the past couple of days I went over the sites I have been ignoring and was amazed at the opinionated and frequently ignorant (but VERY well presented) BLATHER on all. They made CNBC look a lot better in comparison (I’ve been watching them too recently). I know they(the RealClearMarkets authors) have to earn a living and writing helps in the process, but these people are all over the place and are only right by accident at best. And only on random and infrequent days.
If anyone is depending on an “Expert” to provide insight, you would be better off learning about entrails and technical analysis (aka astrology) than depending on any of these Bozos over the long haul. I’m not kidding, either.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:01 pm
@ben22
I’m counting on the govt to step in, so a decline of only 10-15% is in our near future. A basic reset to Feb where this all began. No harm no foul.
Operational earning are most likely positive, how can they not be with the current interest rate spread. It’s everything else out their that is not performing which is bad and will be reflected in the numbers.
The Geithner plan won’t have any affect on this quarters numbers, since it’s still a plan and not in operation. I expect once it does start up that there will be plenty of positive news to give a new false hope. People will forget that if the loans / commitments were not that bad why did the banks sell them?
March 31st, 2009 at 5:07 pm
dead hobo,
I agree 100%. Over the years I have learned that depending on the analysis of “experts” is pretty worthless. But that doesn’t mean the opinion of others is entirely useless. I write a lot of opinion pieces over at my site, but it’s nice to mix it up every once in a while. I wouldn’t have any readers if I just piped off all day…
March 31st, 2009 at 5:13 pm
I can’t read this chart – I know what the colored lines mean but which axis is the number of days? number of days past the first 100 days? I may be retarded but I need help!
March 31st, 2009 at 5:14 pm
And about my difficulties with Technical Analysis, let me elaborate briefly …
To the good …
If you need a graphical representation of current events and it involves math and statistics to take recent events and compare them to today, that’s fine by me. I have a personal weakness for the slow stochastic over a 3 or 6 month period. I’m also a believer in Statistical Process Control, with respect to looking at a process that is in or out of control.
If you want to look at a graph of 1938 and draw comparisons to today, you are a fool who wants to lose his (her) money. If you want to do something that requires mathy technospeak, you are an idiot. If you think the numbers tell the story, you are an idiot.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:14 pm
“didn’t the conversation about doug kass and leftback happen a few days ago???”
It’s Groundhog Day.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:21 pm
dead hobo-
tell us how you really feel
March 31st, 2009 at 5:24 pm
As a wanna be enigmatologist,
here is a trend I’ve been noticing, with special thanks to an article posted by mannwich
http://www.theamericanscholar.org/the-disadvantages-of-an-elite-education/
To receive bailouts or presidential pardons
one needs to have graduated from Harvard or Yale or
worked for GS.
If your alma mater has a state or university in the title or
gawd forbid, a direction
Fuck You
March 31st, 2009 at 5:28 pm
so if I graduated from East Carolina State University- I’m out of luck?
March 31st, 2009 at 5:37 pm
ahab,
then, it’s easy, remember the ol’ School cheer “I Hate State!” & “Go Pirates!”
http://www.ecu.edu/
March 31st, 2009 at 5:37 pm
There’s a big difference between Technical Analysis and Chartists. I think most of the criticism geared towards TA is meant to be geared towards chartists. Simply looking at a picture of an asset price movement and coming to a conclusion about future price is as silly as looking at the front cover of Macbeth and analyzing the writings of Shakespeare.
A lot of trend followers and math based strategies are based purely on TA and perform incredibly well. But these guys aren’t just looking at charts and coming to conclusions. It’s far more complex than that. Important not to lump all TA together. The chartists are the ones I have a beef with….
March 31st, 2009 at 5:37 pm
TPC,
I’m with you. Comparing charts of the current to 1929 or dotcom is a joke.
This crisis is so different in very fundamental ways…
for starters, we could use a little global perspective, don’t you think? For example, how are Chinese banks doing? You know, the ones who made a mountain of bad commercial loans to build all those shiny new factories that are now sitting idle? When are those bailouts going to start? 2010? 2011? Mexico just signed up for $40 billion from the IMF. Eastern Europe is about to go belly up, followed by good chunks of the EU’s banking system…
The ripples and secondary effects from this crisis are just getting underway…
wow. I’m grumpy this afternoon.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:38 pm
so if I graduated from East Carolina State University- I’m out of luck?
That and you’re an Ahab
Your permanent record is spotty at best, buddy.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Foghorn,
I was looking through some reports, those big bastards were pushing 3/2′s ton, not a single ton..
March 31st, 2009 at 5:48 pm
@ MHoffer-
I should have known there was such a school- “State” still missing from the title though
@ Foghorn-
hahahahha
March 31st, 2009 at 5:51 pm
TPC,
Aren’t the math nuts responsible, in part, for some of our current troubles? [BR. Math is a tool...] Didn’t someone recently disparage Myron Scholes as someone who shouldn’t be allowed near a hedge fund under severe penalty, as he appears to be a proven failure? [BR Nasim Taleb]
To me, a simple chart is fine as a communication and summary tool. The more complicated you get or the more you try to compare current events to something out of history, the more TA looks like proctology.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:52 pm
ahab,
dig back in the archives, that used to be its name..
March 31st, 2009 at 5:55 pm
hoffer
5/4 = 1 1/4
3/2 = 3000
Yes, quite large.
Threw you some red meat, fully expected a dissertation on Will Schortz.
Just damn
ahab
insert smily face here
March 31st, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Ay ay ay – what a horrible case of “data snooping”! I am most disappointed, Barry. For example, 2002/3 hit bottom at least thrice – not to mention the previous deep troughs in 2001. When are these folks finally going to exhibit some form of honesty w/ data?
~~~
BR: I found it to be an interesting chart. Take from it what you will.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:56 pm
ya know, everybody likes to rash ‘Astrology’..Arch Crawford has been using it to ‘knock it out of the Parl’, on a consistent basis..
http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/
IT’S OFFICIAL! CP is ranked #1 Market Timer for the 2008 calendar year
by Hulbert Financial digest!
whowoodanode? (:
March 31st, 2009 at 5:58 pm
@Foghorn
“5/4=11/4
3/2= 3000″
Is that anything like 14 million, million (i.e. our $14 trillion GDP)?
March 31st, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Foghorn,
re: Schortz, I’m not a big cross-word fan..
http://www.nthposition.com/enigmatology.php
March 31st, 2009 at 6:01 pm
This is getting pretty anal as per the definition of TA, but it is important to point out that all TA’s are not Chartists. In its simplest form, TA is any sort of securities analysis using past performance as your basis for future returns.
For instance, many technical analysts are trend followers who use complex algorithms (based entirely on past price, volume, etc) to create trading strategies. These aren’t your Myron Scholes’ of the world. I am referring to fund managers such as Winton Capital. Scholes thinks he found the holy grail when in reality he just found a clever way to take the same shit that most other investors do. Most of these MIT guys on Wall Street think they actually can predict the future using math when the reality is that math is not entirely applicable to human psychology (which is the primary driver of price). Trend followers and other technicians eliminate emotion and rely entirely on prices, trends and money management. It’s very different from most quants, black scholes, and chartists.
Anal disctinction, but an important one….
March 31st, 2009 at 6:10 pm
@TPC
I have to agree with dead hobo- stochastics to see if something is overbought or oversold- sometimes I will look at the MACD and of course moving averages- but I wouldn’t call that TA- when I think TA I’m thinking “head and shoulders” and all that other nonsense.
March 31st, 2009 at 6:15 pm
ahab,
I am not disagreeing with either of you. I am just saying that there are different types of TA so it’s important to distinguish between the various types. Chartists are the ones that most investors have disdain for, but they get lumped in with the entire TA crowd….
March 31st, 2009 at 6:43 pm
For the last time, stop calling them ‘strippers.’ They’re dancers.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:02 pm
How ’bout that Sig Hansen on Mad Money?
March 31st, 2009 at 7:10 pm
I have to comment: I use anything that provides any insight. Even if it is something as basic as “what did the last 7 major lows look like?” No one is suggesting you back up the truck based on this — just note what occured prior.
“Knowledge is good.”
-Faber College
March 31st, 2009 at 7:11 pm
“They’re dancers.”
Exotic. Indeed.
Has anyone ever noticed that the people who are always chaotically churning in the opposite direction of the market seem to be the most critical of TA? Most of the people who are good at TA are making money in this market. The “head and shoulders” formation in the SPX completed in 2007-08 was pointed out many times here by Mr Barry, and he was completely correct. It’s what bubbles look like before they burst. Not exactly nonsense.
BTW, I used to think TA was mumbo-jumbo. Now I am a true believer.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:17 pm
@ BR
Completely agree. Best to consume as much data as you can and break it down into your own conclusions. Also important to know which pieces of data to emphasize and which ones to place less emphasis on. As wonderful as this CS analysis is you have to keep the big picture in mind. It is only 5 pieces of past data from recessions that were very different. Just keeping things in perspective….
March 31st, 2009 at 7:23 pm
Quick question to TPC, BR or anyone:
Is it not likely that the market may go sideways here as the Q1 earnings shake investors out of common stock and credit of companies with disappointing earnings and into those that perform better than the dismal expectations?
In other words, instead of a washout isn’t it possible we see a lot of sector rotation and individual stock slaughter this April while the overall market may not do much as the economic recovery grinds upward and business conditions improve, if so slowly as to be almost undetectable? Creative destruction, in other words.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:33 pm
@ leftback-
too much data creates too much confusion- contrary to what my man leftback said- I went all cash May 2007- a bit early I admit- plus I was traveling- but I did not trust the market and feared a crash. I am not a chart reader (or chartist per TPC) but when I got back in the market September 2008, I am now at a 14% annualized return using simple tools and common sense. I know there are plenty that have much greater returns- but so what- I am typically all cash by the end of the day because i like to sleep at night. There will come a time when I put all my money back in- a bit a time- but now is not the time. If reading charts works for you- great- but I think it is more akin to group think where everybody is acting on the same “it worked in the past” assumptions.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:42 pm
@ ahab: Not aimed at you, my man, not at all. I was all cash or 5-year Treasuries from July 2007, apart from a very small amount of my 401K that was beyond intervention. Whatever else we may disagree on, that turned out to be THE critical investment decision of the 21st century so far.
Despite an almost infinite number of small mistakes coupled with a few lucky/intelligent trades, we now have >1.0 X of the money we started with, whereas most peeps have ~ X/2 or less, for many many unfortunate inwestors and Madoff/Stanford/Ponzi hedge fund victims. We bears should all be drinking champagne.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:44 pm
lb,
w/this: “as the economic recovery grinds upward and business conditions improve..”
where did you hear about that?
though, past that, why wouldn’t it be possible? Money Flows are the key, no?
and, if that’s the bet, churning around the centerline, why not short strangles?
March 31st, 2009 at 7:57 pm
@ Leftback,
My biggest issue remains earnings and estimates. We are seeing some truly horrific reports already this quarter. Just go back and check out the Nucor report or the Ingersoll-Rand report from yesterday. We’re talking total devastation and estimates that are 20% higher than they should be. Analysts still expect the S&P to earn $64 this year. I think we’ll see $45. The second half estimates are just way too high. Even Celgene, a damned cancer drug producer cut their guidance tonight.
Of course, the Bob Pisani’s of the world will tell you that this is “priced in”, but how can you say it’s priced in when the expectation are so high? Is $64 “priced in” or is $50 “priced in”. I think $64 is priced in and that’s too high.
Besides that, I think the weakness in Europe is staggering and will hinder earnings for quarters to come. Remember how strong earnings remained into 2007 as our economy weakened? We were getting a huge boost from overseas and seeing double digit earnings even though the U.S. was growing at 2%. Well, that’s going to come back to bite us on the back end. 2009 will see the inverse from Europe and will keep a nice tight lid on earnings.
This last little bout of mean reversion was great and all, but let’s be real. The earnings are awful and not improving and it’s almost impossible for the market to rebound without a rebound in corporate cash flows. Get out there and read some 10-Qs. I haven’t read garbage like this since I was in grade school.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:58 pm
BR…Being a lover all things related to history. The charts are a guide book, but not the map of where we are going to end up. That map is still at the printer.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:03 pm
Mark: I am merely talking about “recovery” in the sense of “economic activity not actually completely frozen in place”. In other words, not Q4, the world is in fact not ending, people driving cars, eating pizza etc., but not a real structural recovery. This is purely a consequence of the reflationary intervention + printing + and so all my trades are predicated on reflation, slow commodity inflation and “unfreezing” of commerce but not as yet on an organic growth recovery that we associate with the end of recessions.
For example, the gold miners, shippers and oil drillers have probably seen their lows. Google hasn’t. I hate the high P/E “large cap growth technology stocks” more than any other sector. Because it clearly won’t grow as cap ex and ad budgets have been eviscerated. See also, newspapers and other media stocks.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:06 pm
@TPC: Excellent points and my stops are in place. My stock picks have close to zero exposure to Europe.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:14 pm
It’s selection bias!
It’s selection bias!
You could’ve taken any of the sucker’s rallies in this or previous bear markets, substituted them in the above charts, and gotten the same results.
Sooner or later, what looked to be a sucker’s rally will turn out to be the real deal, but unfortunately the above charts aren’t any help in deciding that.
What’s most disturbing about the charts is not their public service aspect, but their grasping-at-straws, which I find to be way too common among the current crop of bottom callers, suggesting that this market has still not yet broken enough hearts.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:28 pm
leftback Says:
“I was all cash or 5-year Treasuries from July 2007 . . . turned out to be THE critical investment decision of the 21st century so far.”
exactly- by me being a big pussy I saved myself from a huge loss- once you get into that mindset- just wait- it’ll come back- the next thing you do is lose serious $$$- Buffet’s first rule of investing- don’t lose money.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:30 pm
lb,
I hear you, it’s a better take, than many I’ve heard..
this: “the gold miners, shippers and oil drillers have probably seen their lows.” is most probably true, the HUI is ~2x off its Lows, for ex., the drillers will stay busy, at least somewhat, if not here, than in locales like Brazil (read: elsewhere)…
While I’m in on TWINE, we’ve, yet, a long row to hoe, and think, Q4 had Santa to thank for a +.
the ‘unfreezing’ part, I’m unsure on, some sectors look like they’ve had liquid nitrogen baths..
I’d have to say to I’m much more positive on ‘developing’ Economies w/ + Trade balances..
though, w/this: “my stops are in place. “, that’s always the best place to start, one has to be around, to be around..
March 31st, 2009 at 8:32 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01auto.html?_r=1&ref=business
Bankruptcy Is Now ‘More Probable,’ New G.M. Chief Says
Well, this is this afternoon’s headline from GM…to me, this company has been insolvent for several years, and this is just the obituary….
My wife and I were just discussing the prospects for recovery this evening after supper. I keep seeing things that disturb me, and don’t feel comfortable investing on the long side yet. I see some really really bad news coming from Japan and Europe, and think that just the same watchful waiting is probably best for me here over at least the next few months.
(And this is coming from a guy who had 100% of his retirement in techs in 1998…)
March 31st, 2009 at 8:34 pm
I know it’s very early, but U.S. futures tomorrow look wobbly. April is January all over again.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:37 pm
did anyone else see this:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0413/096-sachs-semgroup-goldman-goose-oil.html
@ TPC,
Those are some good points you make about earnings. To me, it’s more about the dollar, everything you say traces back to that and I also think that moving forward this is more about BRIC than Europe.
FCX as an example, that probably did make its low back in November 08. Certainly could go lower from here but I don’t think you’ll see a 15 handle on that one again this year.
@ ahab,
There isn’t a single thing wrong with a 14% return over the time frame you talked about. You destroyed 99% of people out there.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:40 pm
I tried posting an incredible observation twice but I must be mentally challenged. Anyway- leftback- I hear you- I can’t thank myself enough for pulling my $$$ out of the market- now I think I am a genius or something.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:45 pm
just another thought, it has been interesting to watch the BND during this move up. The bond market is still forecasting a disaster, it hasn’t bought any of this rally. if you look at this closely it’s pretty obvious it says that all is still not well in bank land
I hope Jdamon is paying attention. He seems to have replaced borchers as the local bank holder here.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:47 pm
Anyone know whay futures are down so much?
March 31st, 2009 at 8:48 pm
ha, what do I know, right after I posted at 8:45 I read Whitney Tilson is long WFC and AXP.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:49 pm
Steve,
I think Obama went on his trip without the teleprompter….
March 31st, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Steve,
Not sure, the only big news I’ve heard in the last hour was that BN was elected in Israel, and I’m sure I found this out far after the fact. Perhaps something out of the G20?
March 31st, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Might it have to do with this?
http://gnews.com/world/G20-Anarchists-Set-London-Financial-District-Ablaze-2009033017341784.html
March 31st, 2009 at 8:52 pm
ben22,
if it was Meredith Whitney long those dogs, it’d mean waay more..
March 31st, 2009 at 8:59 pm
speaking of Bibi:
“In an interview conducted shortly before he was sworn in today as prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu laid down a challenge for Barack Obama. The American president, he said, must stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons—and quickly—or an imperiled Israel may be forced to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities itself.
“The Obama presidency has two great missions: fixing the economy, and preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu told me. He said the Iranian nuclear challenge represents a “hinge of history” and added that “Western civilization” will have failed if Iran is allowed to develop nuclear weapons.
In unusually blunt language, Netanyahu said of the Iranian leadership, “You don’t want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs. When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is happening in Iran.””
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200903u/netanyahu
March 31st, 2009 at 9:01 pm
All right, whose had been using the new edit program?
March 31st, 2009 at 9:02 pm
@Mannwich
thanks for the link- man- it’s like something out of Vendetta- weird times we are living in.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:02 pm
I was going to post a comment, and Barry has a new look in store I think…
the whole site had changed…
Something new coming, Barry?
March 31st, 2009 at 9:03 pm
@Mark,
You think? Tilson was short early in 08. He’s made some amazing calls in the last 2 years.
meredith is a star though, no doubt, I was happy to see she left Oppen. and went out on her own.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:04 pm
@call me ahab: What’s weird about it is I can’t find any mention of this anywhere else, including the BBC. Is the media purposefully not reporting this or just not on the ball yet? I can’t believe this hasn’t been reported anywhere yet if there’s something to it. Maybe there’s nothing to it?
March 31st, 2009 at 9:08 pm
Mark,
I’m sure you know, there is this really profitable thing called war.
Someone made a comment today on another thread about how the Almanac shows that bad Januarys/Q1′s typically point to flat down years. My almanac also shows though that in the years it didn’t go that way, there was a war. The most recent example was 2003.
I’d be slightly afraid to bet against any wars happening, especially after reading quotes like that.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:11 pm
Mannwich,
Holy Shit! I just clicked your link.
Never typed this out ever before but
OMG
March 31st, 2009 at 9:14 pm
What if you date the low to November instead of March. Kind of a marginal call to use March, IMHO.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:14 pm
I really don’t think we should be letting the likes if Netanyahu dictate our foreign policy. Agree with ben22. War has been a profitable enterprise for too many in recent years, far too profitable. It distorts all motivations whether people want to admit it or not.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Guys I’ve been reading you all for a while and I just decided to join. I have not seen any other reports about the fire. It is a certain date already over there in London…
March 31st, 2009 at 9:18 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/11/01/new-08-iran-rift-obama-_n_70807.html
Thirty senators sent a letter to the White House on Thursday warning President Bush not to take offensive military action against Iran without the consent of Congress. Noticeably absent from the list of signatories is presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-IL.
~~
“Benjamin Netanyahu, the favourite to win next month’s Israeli general election, yesterday predicted al-Qaeda would blow up…”
http://ww4report.com/node/6794
Bibi is a 1st-Class war-monger
March 31st, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Did some more digging on that link. Think it might be a hoax. Thought it was a little suspicious that nobody in the MSM had reported this….
Agreed, Hoffer on Bibi.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Mark,
No doubt he is. I had been worried he would win.
Did you catch Huffington on CNBC today. I had never been to her blog so I wasn’t sure what to expect but I thought she did a really good job. Better than the t She asked a lot of good questions, was clear, no yelling. It was almost like Bloom.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:34 pm
we.ve serious AIPAC issues..
Walt & Mearsheimer are right..
http://stopthewarnow.net/warlobbies/harvardpaper.html
March 31st, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Jeff, ben,
yes, Bibi’s a live wire routed right into PNAC, et al..
Huffington is an interesting Woman, strikes as Intelligent, willing to ask Q’s that many shy away from..
March 31st, 2009 at 9:40 pm
Barry,
It’s interesting to observe confirmation bias in the readers here…
“Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” ~ John Kenneth Galbraith
The charts are interesting. Thanks…
Kent
March 31st, 2009 at 9:45 pm
What utter crap.
All those graphs tell you is that stocks usually go up a lot after hitting major bear market bottoms. I’m surprised Barry didn’t know that.
They tell you absolutely nothing about where we are in this market. You have taken any one of 100 bear market rallies that occurred in any of the major bears and lasted 2 weeks and superimposed them on those graphs and it would look the same.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:46 pm
Great stuff. Thanks all.
The comments from TPC @March 31st, 2009 at 7:57 pm and leftback @March 31st, 2009 at 8:03 pm
as well as many others have offered some real insight.
Read some 10-Qs is really good advice. Seems to me that haste is a huge risk at this point in markets. As a case in point, the upheaval in London around the g-20. There are too many imponderables right now to consider fixed positions in market indices. Like, I still can’t figure out Sarkozy’s pre-summit hissy fit. What is he signalling? That his govt is paying too high price in unrest and that he better get something? What if the G-20 devolves into a pissing match and what’s with Spain poking at Feith? I mean, hell, yeah, poke away but two days or so before Obama gets on a plane for Europe?
MH- as for Mr. Netanyahu, yeah, I guess I would be more interested in what they had to say if they hadn’t just engaged in collective punishment, Iran is certainly a conundrum but hell, if you judge them by their actions…
I always believed that one of Cheney’s reasons for seeking war with Iran was an overwhelming desire to destroy Isfahan. I owe you a ping, on KOP I am taking TPC’s advice and doing my homework, will happily share. Still believe in Ford but I’m prepared to make reservations at the Red Fox (Wagoner can have the Hoffa special).
To toot my horn, concerning the Case-Shiller post I recall for you the note I placed a couple of weeks ago about a house in Charlottesville, Va and its pricing. Otto and I back and forthed on it. I believe the point I was trying to illustrate was borne out by the chart. So, not everything I bring up is nutso (let’s say it’s a healthy Franken spread).
Don’t have anti-corporate rants for y’all today, so I’ll just say Ooga Booga, Secret Muslim, Jacob Lord Rothschild and good luck and good night.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:51 pm
@ kent,
here is an assumption that will hurt a lot of financial plans, in response to your site.
Thinking 401k matches will always be there. If you’ve looked at enough peoples retirement plan you come to realize that the average person does not save nearly enough, and therefore are very dependent on returns to make up the difference, part of what also makes up that difference is a qualified plan match. I’ve seen a lot of plans locally over the years go from a $1/$1 match up to 4,5,6% of salary down to 0 in the current environment.
I could name lots of others, just one example.
March 31st, 2009 at 9:51 pm
Steve B.
How about hope being the theme for March and the close of the quarter. Fear has been waiting – 4-1 being a logical marker. The news today was real bad re: the ground war the real economy. The Air War- the market got it’s feeble lift from a bank stating it’s going to give our money back. The G-20 is now a culture war.
The deterioration of the economy is gruesome and relentless with the financials still playing too much of a role. And too many people viewed Barry’s graphs!
March 31st, 2009 at 9:54 pm
@Mregan,
here is what soros thinks about the question you ask here:
What if the G-20 devolves into a pissing match and what’s with Spain poking at Feith?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5989163.ece
March 31st, 2009 at 9:57 pm
@mregan
also on KOP. I took a look today. for what it’s worth, I would pass. There are some things on the balance sheet that just don’t make sense.
March 31st, 2009 at 10:10 pm
ben22-
thanks for both- re KOP yes, in the income statement 12/31/08
Net Income From Continuing Ops (11,400) was a big huh? But I want to know why so I’ll keep looking.
Soros and this notion “by identifying a disjunction between perception and reality” – I think it’s called spotting anomalies. Or noticing when the snake oil salesmen are slugging back their own swill.
March 31st, 2009 at 10:37 pm
@Mannwich:HFM. I just shared an email with Jack that really scared me.
And here I was thinking I was an alarmist. But one that no one would heed.
OMG. It’s well beyond.
April 1st, 2009 at 3:05 am
re: TA… “History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes.” (Twain)
It’s always good to inspect our bias, expectations, & consider all the possible outcomes before putting our money on the line. Got to keep the lizard brain in check.
My view… 1) Prices are driven primarily by earnings, growth and INVESTOR SENTIMENT. 2) Sentiment translates into Supply & Demand for equities (and other assets). 3) Crowd psychology feedback loops create momentum.
Sentiment data often leads price.
TA is merely a way to identify trends and reversals in both price and sentiment. It is not the holy grail but is an indispensable tool for those looking for a statistical edge.
It is foolish to ignore the past when considering possibilities for the future.
I really like the way BR sheds light on new information, such as the above charts. This information belongs in the matrix.
April 1st, 2009 at 8:17 am
“Read some 10-Qs is really good advice.”
“This information belongs in the matrix.”
needless to say, if more people read more…
April 1st, 2009 at 8:21 am
BR: On the other hand, remaining willfully ignorant of what happened in the past doesn’t sound like a great strategy.
These are interesting charts. Take from them what you will.
Maybe i missed it [and BTW i agree BR, use all available tools], but the “incomprehensible obvious” that has seem to be missed here is not whether these data points represent a statistically meaningful “N”, but that NO ONE KNOWS IF 666 WAS THE BOTTOM!
LORD!
April 1st, 2009 at 8:35 am
The way I read the charts at the top of this post is that
“after every significant bottom, the market will eventually rise, and may or may not continue to rise for a few months.”
Since on any given day the market may go up or down, and also that trends in direction are common, the only thing unique is that the graphs depict bottoms. By definition, they can’t go down any more, until the next bottom. Thus, ALL will go up for a while. Then, they may go up or down, as clearly depicted above.
April 1st, 2009 at 8:40 am
Or, to put it cynically, the wonder bankers at Credit Suisse discovered that when you hit a bottom, the only way to go is up, since down is precluded, by definition. Then, you ave a 50% chance of continuing to go up or down after a while. That’s brutal genius.
April 1st, 2009 at 3:48 pm
I would like to see a chart comparing the current rally with major bear market rallies during the great depression. IMHO it would be much more appropriate.
April 2nd, 2009 at 8:03 am
check out
http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/1513/1929crashpe9.gif
this will show you the point myself and dead hobo have made–pick your “bottom” on that chart–you have a lot!. bottoms and the “big upside” touted in this strings chart is a rear view mirror look [take it from someone that thought 741 may have been it and got hurt]– maybe 666 will be it– but that’s not the point
April 3rd, 2009 at 7:18 am
man, i thought the dow dropped like 80% from 29 to the bottom later,
I just don’t see how this makes it the bottom here.