- The Big Picture - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog -

Was the ’00-03 Crash Bush’s Fault? ’09 Obama’s?

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 5, 2009 @ 6:49 am In Bailouts,Economy,Financial Press,Markets,Psychology,Really, really bad calls | Comments Disabled

The incessant parade of bad advice, partisan quackery and general ignorance about the way markets work is fascinating to watch. I used to find it annoying, but now I simply use it as a way to make money. Just find the dumbest of the group, and take the other side of their trades.

The latest idiocy coming out of the usual collection of misfits, dolts and cheerleaders is that the last 20% leg down in the market is pretty much all President Obama’s fault. Now before I explain — yet again — why this is so foolish, I have to point out that just about everyone who is saying this has been pretty much wrong about, well, pretty much everything.

This collection of seers, pundits and talking heads have a track record that would make the 1927-1933 group of Pompous Prognosticators [1] blush with pride. Their sterling track record includes:

• Failing to recognize the importance of the Housing Boom;

• Not understanding the impact of ultra cheap credit;

• Failing to notice the economy weakening appreciably in 2008;

• Missing all of the warning signs of distress in firms as varied as Bear Stearns, AIG, Lehman, Citigroup, Freddie Mac, Wachovia, Countrywide and WAMU;

• Utterly missing the most telegraphed recession in history;

• Believing the sub-prime problems would be contained;

• Expecting the rest of the globe would decouple form the US economy;

• Believing that deregulation was the path to prosperity;

And many more.

That this pool of idiots missed all of the above merely suggests that are grossly incompetent as market and/or economic observers. That they now want to blame Obama for what happened only compounds their awful track record, and reveals them as nothing more than shameless partisans.

Using their own logic, let’s have a look at what occurred at this point in history — March 5, 2001 –  during George W. Bush’s first term in office: From election day in 2000 to today, March 5th, here’s how the market behaved:

>

Nasdaq November 4, 2000 – March 5, 2001

[2]

That’s off about 33%.

To really prove the point, let’s see the same chart from when George Bush started leading in the polls in early September:

>

Nasdaq September 1, 2000 – March 5, 2001

[3]

>

Down about 50%.

By the idiot squad’s reasoning, the 2000 tech wreck was all George Bush’s fault. Funny, I don’t recall hearing any of that from them in 2000-01.

I am not an Obama cheerleader. For the record, I found his selection of Larry Summers to be awful, and his choice of Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary ill-advised. But to hold him responsible for a market collapse on day 41 of his Presidency — following 8 years of gross negligence and ruinous incompetency under the Bush regime — is simply too much stupidity for any damaged nation to bear.

>

>

Previously:
Markets Are Rorschach Inkbot Tests [4] (March 2, 2009)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/markets-are-rorschach-inkbot-tests/

Experts, Crashes, Media, Skepticism [5] (February 19th, 2009)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/experts-crashes/

1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators [1] (November 2006)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/1927-1933-chart-of-pompous-prognosticators/


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/2000-crash-bush-09-obama/

URLs in this post:

[1] 1927-1933 group of Pompous Prognosticators: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/1927-1933-chart-of-pompous-prognosticators/

[2] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/nasdaq-2000.gif

[3] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/nasdaq-9-2000.gif

[4] Markets Are Rorschach Inkbot Tests: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/markets-are-rorschach-inkbot-tests/

[5] Experts, Crashes, Media, Skepticism: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/experts-crashes/

Copyright © 2008 The Big Picture. All rights reserved.