7% Market Gains
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Huge day today! Major indices saw 7% plus moves upward. And as Bloomberg noted, this capped off the biggest 10 day rally since 1938:
U.S. stocks rallied, capping the market’s steepest two-week gain since 1938, as investors speculated the Obama administration’s plan to rid banks of toxic assets will spur growth and investor Mark Mobius said a new bull market has begun. Treasuries and the dollar fell.
Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. both soared at least 19 percent as the U.S. Treasury said it will finance as much as $1 trillion in purchases of distressed assets. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. jumped more than 6.7 percent after oil rose to an almost four-month high. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index extended its rebound from a 12-year closing low on March 9 to 22 percent as all 10 of its main industry groups advanced.
The S&P 500 gained 7.1 percent to 822.92, its biggest increase since Oct. 28. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 497.48 points, or 6.8 percent, to a five-week high of 7,775.86. The MSCI World Index climbed for the ninth time in 10 days, adding 5.4 percent. Twenty-one stocks rose for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, the broadest rally since at least July 2004.
Always better to be lucky than smart . . .
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Source:
U.S. Markets Wrap: S&P 500 Caps Biggest 10-Day Gain Since 1938
Lynn Thomasson and Adam Haigh
Bloomberg, March 23 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atgwohr1NWTs&
Previously:
“Big Bear Market Rally Coming,” Says Noted Bear Barry Ritholtz
Aaron Task
Yahoo Tech Ticker Mar 10, 2009 08:35am
http://bit.ly/7KgSG
And just for shits and giggles:
When Barry Ritholtz Talks, People Listen
STEPHEN J. DUBNER
Freakonomics
NYT March 11, 2009, 1:13 PM
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/when-barry-ritholtz-talks-people-listen/
March 23rd, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit; wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
I just found a beef steak tomato in my Geithner fruit salad.
Enjoy the rally while it lasts.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:06 pm
BR,
you’ve made some Really Rippin’ Trading Calls.
as a reminder, for the less intrepid, “Sell’em by the Box”~
and, just to be clear, I mean “Box”, not “Carton”, and, preferably, for all, Closed-End..
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:07 pm
I reject the notion of a *short sqeeze*. Many of these big banks have negligible short interest – e.g. BAC only 1.7% of the float is shorted, C 3.9%, and JPM 1.3% respectively.
When the market popped last week I knew it would take at least 4 weeks for it to settle back to reality. In the meantime, I’m trying not to watch it too closely; trying not to *avergage down* too much in my diversified portfolio of double and triple short ETFs.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:20 pm
Across the board I see moving-average crossovers occurring or very nearly so. Some are relatively long term such as 20 week lines cutting up through 50 weeks though the S&P itself is still far from that situation.
Over the last year the technicians have convinced me that there’s merit in their black art. The call is out to Tabbo and the rest to weigh in and tell us what they see, what are some key signals in the next few days and weeks, and what will convince you this rally has legs.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:23 pm
The Big Casino stays open only when it can afford to avoid welshing on its gambling debts with easy bailout money. Just one BIG Ponzi scheme where elite monied interests still make the rules even for shitty bets and where US taxpayers play the fool and foot the bill.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:28 pm
Barry,
Is there any meaning to the fact that the only sectors to meaningfully outperform the S&P 500 today were the Financials (XLF at 16.5%) and Energy (XLE at 8.2%)? How about the fact that ever since the closing low on March 9 the only sector to materially outperform the S&P 500 (22%) is the Financials (51%)? Please educate me why these are not indications of a bear market rally or why such lack of broad leadership can still be a new bull market. Thanks!
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Today’s rally, IMHO, reflects the confidence Wall Street has that Timmy and BO are going to do their beckoning. Using tax dollars. Very nicely orchestrated: public outrage over peanut bonuses while AIG shovels money out the back door to foreign entities, and Timmy gets ready to feather a few insider beds using ta trillions. Dirty. Dirty. Dirty.
But the traders love it. And before you know it the little guys will be back inside not wanting to sit on the sidelines.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:45 pm
I stick to my belief that this is a bear market bounce…it has the following hallmarks:
1) Unimpressive volume
2) Huge move in a short time span
3) Excessive bullishness (10 day put/call at .75…previous 3 year low was .8)
4) Everybody wants to believe it is a new bull (as seen on Kudlow)
5) Key reason for the bear market (too much debt) is actually worse than when the bear started
@Capacious: You are correct…there is virtually no short interest in individual stocks…most major QQQQ names for example have short ratios 1 or lower. These are not short squeezes. Just stupid bidding up of stocks.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:47 pm
yup, a bear market rally, one that smells of help btw,-…sort of like last July when there was coordinated intervention to help bank shares, all within a devaluation market.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:55 pm
SB,
as I was saying this AM, you’ll be right over the longer-term..
this, esp. “Everybody wants to believe it is a new bull”, to me, is the mark of doom for this Bear Rally.
and, as you allude, the underlying “Fundamentals” are going from Bad, to Worse..
there’s going to be a cherry Short position to be had, b4 all too long..
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:58 pm
As a said, a devaluation market. Few should be surprised of this type of announcement IMO given the FOMC statement last week of monetizing treasuries.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7851925a-17a2-11de-8c9d-0000779fd2ac.html
China calls for new reserve currency
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: March 23 2009 12:16 | Last updated: March 24 2009 00:06
China’s central bank on Monday proposed replacing the US dollar as the international reserve currency with a new global system controlled by the International Monetary Fund.
In an essay posted on the People’s Bank of China’s website, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank’s governor, said the goal would be to create a reserve currency “that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies”.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Call me skeptical, critical, radical or just plain cynical by temperament, but what I pick from the bullish news stream is something completely different…
Remember what the Bank of America strategist Richard Bernstein said in February 11 (according to Bloomberg)? Oh yes, he dismissed Geithner´s plan with these words: “Financial stocks are likely to be as toxic to portfolio performance as banks’ assets are to their balance sheets,” and “The history of bubbles clearly shows that the significant consolidation of the financial sector is inevitable…The latest Treasury program is simply another attempt to stymie the consolidation process.”
And now? Well, this is what Bloomberg (March 23) tells about Bernstein´s update::
‘Investors should sell bank stocks after they rallied 12 percent today because the Treasury Department’s plan to buy toxic assets won’t stop profits from dropping, Bank of America Corp.’s Richard Bernstein said.
Removing devalued loans and securities from banks’ balance sheets is a short-term solution that will delay the problem’s ultimate solution, which is bank takeovers, Bernstein said. The government won’t be able to inflate the prices banks receive for selling bad assets indefinitely, he added.
“The history of bubbles shows quite well that financial sector consolidation is inevitable,” Bernstein, Bank of America’s chief investment strategist, wrote in a research note. “Financial stocks will be attractive when the government tries to speed up that inevitable process. However, to the contrary, the government continues to attempt to stymie that inevitable consolidation.”’
But surely Bernstein is just another misguided analyst who is still having a bearish sleep while there are already signs and sounds of a bullish spring at the other end of the cave? Well, not exactly. For there was another Bloomberg story that caught my attention: “Bank Bond Spreads Endanger S&P 500 Index’s Advance” (Update3, By Michael Tsang):
“While the Standard & Poor’s 500Financials Index of banks, brokerages and insurers surged as much as 54 percent through last week from a 17-year low on March 6, bonds of the companies yield 8.55 percentage points more thanTreasuries, about the widest in 13 years, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. The gap between yields of financial institutions’ bonds and Treasuries widened even as their stocks jumped.”
and
“Sustaining the rebound may depend on bank earnings that analysts have overestimated for at least six straight quarters, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In December, Wall Street forecast earnings at financial firms would rise 32 percent this quarter and 56 percent next quarter. Now, analysts estimate profits will drop 33 percent and 34 percent, respectively.
Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan profits from January and February probably don’t include writedowns on bad assets and provisions for loan losses, said Meredith Whitney, founder of New York-based Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC.”
It is not going to be an easy a ride for Tim and his team, it seems.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
reminder – this market is global … the taxpayers in this juice it plan are American
PS – Can we somehow get the globe more involved in the Policing Costs of the Free Market
Fiscal Year 2009 DoD Budget … the $515.4 billion request plus the Bush Admin requests $70 billion as an emergency allowance for the Global War on Terror
Maintains a highly trained fighting force of 2.2 million soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines;
> Recruits, trains and equips 65,000 additional active duty soldiers and 27,000 additional Marines over five years;
> Provides pay increases of 3.4 percent for military members, improves benefits for the all-volunteer force, and increases pay 2.9 percent for the civilian workforce;
> Provides world-class health care for 9.2 million eligible Service members, families, and retirees;
> Procures and maintains an arsenal of the world’s most advanced weapon systems;
> Improves warfighting capabilities and invests in science and technology to maintain U.S. advantage over the Nation’s enemies;
> Maintains 545,000 facilities at 5,300 sites in the U.S. and around the globe; and
> Maintains vital intelligence capabilities.
PSS – I went looking for figures to present on the unreturned costs for most of us to maintain law and order on Wall Street … difficult to track down … and the dog is hounding me for supper.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:31 pm
Everybody running out where the ocean used to be to pick up the fish that are flopping around. Gonna’ eat good tonight. Free fish! Don’t see that too often.
I’m stayin’ up on the hill with my provisions (gold, silver, and cash).
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Well, I suppose I’m the only one who held some FAZ today? A mere 45% down….
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:48 pm
FWIW — Trader Mark at Seeking Alpha will buy dips at 804 support and sees resistance at 870. Big gap up tomorrow sends him running for cover. “Machines rule” he says, and I see no evidence to the contrary.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/127415-it-s-raining-bulls-today
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:52 pm
This http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/report-china-suggests-new-reserve.html should give everyone pause. America greatest asset (at least now) is the dollar as a global reserve currency.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:57 pm
The biggest rallies happen in the midst of the worst bear markets. We just completed a 21.6% 10 day rally, but it really tell us nothing we didn’t already know: this has been a hellish market.
In the 10 trading day period from 10/5/31 to 10/20/31 the S+P rallied 24.3%(from 8.82 to 10.96). 8 months later, the S+P hit bottom at 4.4 for a loss of 60% for those lucky enough to have bought after the monster rally. Also, in March 1943, some 12 years later, the S+P was still trading at 10.96.
…just some words for the wise.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:32 pm
Excellent program announced by the Treasury Secretary!
You can see that the market liked the plan, and even guys like Bill Gross from PIMCO think its a great idea.
There is really no downside for anybody in this – and the biggest winners are no doubt going to be the taxpayers.
Really what could be better. Actually I can think of what would be better…..it would be better if this whole thing was a season of 24 – and we already know who the bad guys are…..
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:53 pm
Just to add to the comments above by the bears…
Over the last 10 months, the SPX hasn’t traded above its 50 day MA for more than a few days. I’m betting that recent history will apply to the current rally.
March 24th, 2009 at 12:04 am
This has GOT to be the biggest bear trap that I will EVER see in my lifetime. The only question I have is when to pull the trigger on my puts. Perhaps a straddle, just in case.
March 24th, 2009 at 12:06 am
Economist James Galbraith weighs in on the Geithner plan. See the video at the following address:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/216311/Part-I-Geithner%27s-Plan-%22Extremely-Dangerous%22-Economist-Galbraith-Says?tickers=%5Egspc,%5Edji,c,bac,jpm,WFC?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD
One of the points he makes (at about 2:50 in the video) is that the banks may be tempted to do some “under the table” transactions with the investors to unload their assets at inflated prices.
March 24th, 2009 at 12:11 am
So, help me out… we are to dig ourselves out of this mess–using leverage??!! The buyer puts in x, the Fed matches x, and then the FDIC let’s that have some factor of x as purchasing power? Confusing as this may be, let’s not forget that the seller’s price is agreeable with buyers–which they weren’t even close last go round… If the rally is based on the success of this plan, then we just need to sit back, wait for volume to taper and hop on the short side hard. I don’t see anything about the plan that indicates a belief that there is too much leverage. Instead I see a plan that is under the belief that there is only a disruption that needs to be worked through…Hmmm.
Regardless, the numbers being posted by the market have to be respected if only to keep from getting scorched. Today was the 5th 90% up day. Today cut through resistance like butter once it got moving. Some of the stocks are showing some exhaustion, but it just keeps pulling… Friday’s pullback set the market up for this blast through 805, now we’ve got to more substantial resistance. It might have to work here for a bit, but hey, it is coming to the end of a quarter and stranger things have happened. AIG might not get their bonuses, but you know, money managers still want to get paid…let’s see what ol’ Barney Frank and Dodd have to say about that.
Still in the bear market rally camp. Strong bear rally’s will scare you, but look about you at the hope and you will realize real rally’s into bull markets will pass unnoticed, dripping with apathy like March of ‘03 did.
Do you homework now for what is next.
March 24th, 2009 at 12:26 am
i see a megaphone broadening top completing itself tomorrow. short side is the right side…still. bought faz after the close at 19. i like it quite a bit.
my last trade of the year was short faz @90 and long jrcc @10 a mere 10 days ago.
this is one heck of a great traders market. buy and hold is still dead.
March 24th, 2009 at 12:28 am
I Closed my shorts on Friday. Watched this rally all day. Went short again at the close.
As for the Geintner plan – the single biggest robbery of the taxpayer ever seen…. since last week.
March 24th, 2009 at 1:00 am
i believe Mar bottom was the bottom. I sold calls against some of my FAS position. next dip i’ll close my calls if it happens. in 2003, i remember people saying “too fast, too much, no volume etc”.
welcome to new bull market smart money rally phase
March 24th, 2009 at 1:02 am
As part of their self-appointed patriotic mission to juice the market by any means possible, the editors at Bloomberg have decided that Mark Mobius now has the ability to initiate gargantuan moves in global markets merely by uttering a few happy words.
If you’re keeping score at home, here’s what Mobius was uttering 6 months ago:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBsHl1zooR6o
Nobody knows if this is the start of a new bull market, but if you followed Mobius’ market call last September, you have my deepest sympathies.
March 24th, 2009 at 2:42 am
Thanks, Steve Barry, once again for sharing your perceptions. (My perception? I’m trying to learn technicals and can’t even pretend to know. So, I’m long some things I like while holding some offsetting S&P puts, hoping not to get killed either way.)
Marcus Aurelius, that is a hilarious analogy!
March 24th, 2009 at 2:45 am
some_guy_in_a_cube, nice link!
March 24th, 2009 at 5:22 am
The number of stocks at their upper Bollinger Bands is impressive. It looks like they are all in for naught! I’ll be buying some inexpensive puts at the end of the day. Just in case, the pull-back is hard and substantial. Whoo! it’s early morning and I feel something hard and substantial; my head perhaps? Maybe, but the only reason I can see for this run-up is an inflation play; that just isn’t here yet, and there is still enough doubt out there in the investment community to make this thing reverse as fast as it got started. jmho
March 24th, 2009 at 6:03 am
The outrage of all outrages in the last 18 months is the complete protection of bank and corporate bondholders at taxpayer expense. These bondholders lent money to reckless banks and corporations who bet the farm on the premise that house prices would always go up. And they lost.
Now, thanks to bailout nation, taxpayers are on the hook for trillions. Bondholders, meanwhile–the folks who loaned the banks the trillions they have since vaporized–have lost next to nothing.
Today’s Treasury plan is just more of the same: A byzantine public-private partnership that will put $1 trillion of taxpayer money on the line so bondholders won’t lose a dime.
Fund manager (and PhD) John Hussman explains the end game of this current policy:
Well said. Will someone please tell Obama and the Treasury Department?
March 24th, 2009 at 6:26 am
Talk about a trader’s market! I’m up 30% in two weeks. I’m out of the longs tomorrow and going short. Everything is slamming up aginst the Bollinger tops, RSI is above 80, the MACD’s have crossed, and volume is thin thin thin. If those don’t add up to a sell signal then this market is really kwazy stuff.
If these bounces keep coming, I’ll cover the kids’ tuition and maybe even a new car for dad this quarter alone
March 24th, 2009 at 6:26 am
One other thing… Biderman from TrimTabs, usualy an upbeat type, said on CNBC that corporate insider buying has plummetted.
March 24th, 2009 at 7:03 am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29848947/site/14081545
US Recession to Stretch Well into 2010: Feldstein
Yes, about when the downturn will end, like you Barry, I would like to see a cage match on WWF between Bernanke and Feldstein….
…We can only dream…
March 24th, 2009 at 7:10 am
Henry Blodget Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 6:03 am
The outrage of all outrages in the last 18 months is the complete protection of bank and corporate bondholders at taxpayer expense.
……Well that would be because protecting the financial system was key to the whole situation as it was in 1933….. The Bush and Obama admins could assuage public anger and the desire for morality plays or they could save the financial system and thereby avert re-run of the great depression. They couldn’t do both. Not surprisingly they chose the latter…..For some set of bizarre reasons there are those that would have preferred to see the entire financial system crash but most of the country doesn’t possess a similar desire for hari kiri.
March 24th, 2009 at 7:13 am
Bruce in Tn Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 7:03 am
“US Recession to Stretch Well into 2010: Feldstein”
……If Feldstein believes this then he’s making an argument for how serious this is and how great the need for govt action…..
March 24th, 2009 at 7:15 am
And the Chinese are going to keep buying our treasuries…Nothing will change….hmmm….
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/03/23/china-takes-aim-dollar-urges-new-global-currency/
China Takes Aim at Dollar, Urges New Global Currency
“China calls for the creation of a new currency to eventually replace the dollar as the world’s standard, reflecting a growing unhappiness with the U.S. role in the world economy. ”
….it must be like loaning money to your sorry brother-in-law…and knowing you ain’t gonna see it…
March 24th, 2009 at 7:26 am
BR said
Always better to be lucky than smart . . .
reply:
__________________-
You bet. And fortunately, I’m good looking too.
March 24th, 2009 at 7:55 am
Henry Blodget posts:
“But that constant attempt to avoid inevitable private market losses is what allowed this problem to become so noxious.”
here here
March 24th, 2009 at 7:57 am
otto Says:
“The Bush and Obama admins could assuage public anger and the desire for morality plays or they could save the financial system and thereby avert re-run of the great depression. ”
conjecture, possible fantasy
March 24th, 2009 at 8:56 am
Adding to SB’s point [and I'm trading this on long side right now]
I look at
1. Investment grade corporates–BARELY budged on 7% market rally. Something smells in Denmark. Debt should always recover first [and is smarter than equities]
2. the VIX remains above 40. That’s the level is has to crack meaningfully on down side side to be a lasting rally
3. not sure if BR deleted my comparison of 1929-30 with annotation from Galbraith’s “The Crash” [not planning on stealing my stuff for your book now Barry are u??] 1930 had a HUGE spring rally [actually 100%--I'm expected about 30% here], so the “rhyming continues”;
4. As also pointed out in the book and my analysis, trade wars and protectionism began to rise. See http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/23/world/23trade.html “Trade Barriers Rise as Slump Tightens Grip”
5. The oscillators i look at are all at screaming heights– they have been amazingly accurate for uptrends/downtrends when at extremes
6. CNBC just trotted out ABBY JC!! “the buying opportunity of a lifetime]”–And i though she was put out to pasture… Fortunately they had Jack Bogle on saying he can’t the economy recovering for a year or year and a half minimum.
March 24th, 2009 at 9:02 am
@ahab
Sure the financial system was in no danger whatever….. that’s why the country has been focussed on nothing else since last September ….I think you said you live in DC….Here’s a link to a useful Krugman antidote from Steve Pearlstein who seems to have it about right…..For my money Pearlstein is one of the most balanced financial and economic journalists out there…..I rather think Krugman who I like and read is going to rather regret that oped in yesterday’s NYT.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/23/AR2009032302800.html?hpid=topnews
March 24th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Why am I not surprised?
“Bernstein, Rosenberg to Leave Bank of America, Spokeswoman Says” (By Bob Ivry and David Mildenberg March 24, Bloomberg)
‘Richard Bernstein, chief U.S. quantative strategist, and David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist, are leaving Bank of America Corp., a company spokeswoman said.
Bernstein, 50, will start his own money management company after leaving in mid-April, and Rosenberg, a native of Canada who plans to leave in mid-May, will join Gluskin Sheff & Associates in Toronto, said a person familiar with the decisions. Bank of America spokeswoman Susan McCabe confirmed the departures.
“The wisdom and counsel that David and Rich provided clients, analysts and our businesses have enriched our franchise,” McCabe said today.
Both men are based in New York and were employees at Merrill Lynch & Co. before Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America bought the Wall Street brokerage firm in January.
In a note to investors March 23, Bernstein advised selling bank shares. Removing distressed assets from banks’ balance sheets is a short-term solution that will prolong a resolution of the credit crisis, he said.
Rosenberg said March 9 that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may reach a low of 600 in October.’
It does not matter much whether they left BofA voluntarily or whether they were pushed (highly likely): there is no way you can serve simultaneously and for a longer period two incompatible credos, i.e. the resurrection faith of BofA and etc. and the fundamentalism of bond traders.
March 24th, 2009 at 10:16 am
@ otto-
“Sure the financial system was in no danger whatever”
otto- you jump to the conclusion that if the government didn’t take your preferred course of action then there would be a depression- this is simply conjecture and unknowable. Please don’t imply from my three word comment above that I then must believe that the financial system was not in any form of danger.
secondly- I read your linked article. I am unimpressed. The “protected class” such as bondholders should be bearing the brunt of any damages. You have to take the good with the bad. Remember- without the USG intervention many of these banks would be bust, stockholders and bondholders wiped out. That is the way it supposed to work. The bondholders take the losses not the taxpayers. Bankruptcy, then the USG can buy the distressed assets for pennies. I honestly believe that the USG is doing what it can to maintain “what was”. That’s not forward thinking obviously. The US has a great chance to become a broken hollowed out shell of its former self instead of re-inventing itself to something better.
March 24th, 2009 at 10:31 am
@ Steve Barry,
One other thing… Biderman from TrimTabs, usualy an upbeat type, said on CNBC that corporate insider buying has plummetted.
Steve, I’m getting nervous that I keep going after what you say (see my constant put/call ratio questions) but what does this really tell you at all? I mean, these were the same insiders that were buying back in late 2007 right? That’s like saying it’s bearish because there are no stock buybacks at CAT but it was somehow bullish when CAT was buying stock back at $80/share.
March 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
call me ahab Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 10:16 am
otto- you jump to the conclusion that if the government didn’t take your preferred course of action then there would be a depression- this is simply conjecture and unknowable. Please don’t imply from my three word comment above that I then must believe that the financial system was not in any form of danger.
……..Of course it’s unknowable but since governments from China to the USA have intervened in markets and financial systems to an extent that I have never seen in my lifetime to avert a financial meltdown with the avowed purpose of heading off a huge recession/depression which even with this intervention looks set the most serious since the war it’s surely reasonable to assume there was a fair likelihood of it happening…….You for some totally bizarre reason which I’m unable to understand seem to think a complete collapse of the US financial financial system would be an improving experience (I think you thought the same about the siege of Berlin the other day) with no impact on the lives of most of it’s ordinary citizens….. You couldn’t be more wrong….I just don’t subscribe to this reckless philosophy and neither does anyone else charged with real responsibility for future of the country……
March 24th, 2009 at 10:37 am
If BAC did in fact nudge Rosenberg out the door that was a very dumb move. He’s one of the few legit economists on the street IMO.
I’m sure I’m missing some but that’s the head of brokerage plus those two guys leaving, I wonder if Mr. Lewis still thinks Mother Merrill is the crown jewel he thought it was when he bought it, ….at a premium.
March 24th, 2009 at 10:51 am
otto Says:
“You for some totally bizarre reason which I’m unable to understand seem to think a complete collapse of the US financial financial system would be an improving experience (I think you thought the same about the siege of Berlin the other day) with no impact on the lives of most of it’s ordinary citizens”
dude- you make me laugh. Let me enlighten you as to what we discussed the other day. My comparison was that the collapse of the financial system was not Armageddon and that Soviet tanks destroying the city of Berlin was. One involves death and physical destruction the other possible financial hardship and tough economic times. Using my incredible IQ and survival instinct- I’ll take the latter.
March 24th, 2009 at 11:03 am
On Bernstein and Rosenberg:
I think that their departure has been on the cards for some time, certainly no later than the “leaking” of the “internal” Lewis memo on Feb 24. After that, it has been official company policy to have great faith in the solvency of the financial system, and that of BofA, in particular. Clearly, that faith is not shared by Bernstein and Rosenberg – and they have not been to shy to express their unorthodoxy in public: Rosenberg more indirectly by predicting (March 9) S&P 500 hitting 600 in October, and Bernstein as openly as possible. Did they anticipate their departure? After the “leaked” memo, they sure did know what lay ahead.
March 24th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
It is interesting to note that the market’s surge comes at the same time as many experts express their support of the government’s new plan…
http://bit.ly/PNkP5