This type of reporting is the intellectual equivalent of saying “February was warmer than January – which confirms global warming.” Rubbish!

…….but what % of the market do the unwashed masses in greater DC represent…. and even some of the unwashed are creditworthy…the issue is to what extent have the unwashed destabilized the market and for how long…hobo and I think you and BR and a few others overdo the doom and gloom….you’re simply overshooting on the downside as people over shot on the upside

…..On Berlin where you bought beer a couple of years ago you said as I recall the siege wasn’t big deal because sixty years later the city had recovered and therefore the US would recover from a collapse of the financial system. My point was a collapse of the financial system would in fact be infinitely more far reaching and destructive than the siege of Berlin. Believe it or not the great depression did a lot more harm than the siege of Berlin.

“lets assume . . . I bought a house in the burbs of dc in 1999…..am I’m still in the money….”

Correct- if you bought in 1999 you should be ok as far as equity and should be ahead of the game. The onslaught from the unwashed masses trying to get into the housing game- let’s say from 2004 to 2007- not in such a good position.

Otto Says:

“I just find your viewpoint very odd”

Let’s say refreshingly different. Also- here is my comment from the other thread.

otto Says:

“You for some totally bizarre reason which I’m unable to understand seem to think a complete collapse of the US financial financial system would be an improving experience (I think you thought the same about the siege of Berlin the other day) with no impact on the lives of most of it’s ordinary citizens”

dude- you make me laugh. Let me enlighten you as to what we discussed the other day. My comparison was that the collapse of the financial system was not Armageddon and that Soviet tanks destroying the city of Berlin was. One involves death and physical destruction the other possible financial hardship and tough economic times. Using my incredible IQ and survival instinct- I’ll take the latter.

March 24th, 2009 at 11:24 am
@otto-

dude – I have thick skin- never an apology needed for any comment. No- to answer your question- prices have leveled off- worst is over for this area as far as depreciation. Not saying it’s all sunny skies by any means- it will be a slow market for some time.

…….so you basically agree with me the rot has stopped… lets assume ahab I bought a house in the burbs of dc in 1999…..I don’t have the stats but I’m going to bet from what I know about Baltimore that it at least doubled, probably +150%, in value between then and 2006 when it all went pop…..now it’s fallen back by 30% so I’m still in the money….and this is where the great mass of he market is….still in the money…..I don’t think another R/E is around the corner but it’s definitley bottomed in most places and there’s only one way to go from there……On Berlin I think you likened the cleansing experience there to one that might be enjoyed if our financial system collapsed….I just find your viewpoint very odd

Mannwich old man…..there are still loads of businessses and individuals out there who want to borrow….sure they the banks had loads of liquidity thrown at them but they are still being stingy with the dough as a million pieces of commentary will tell you….Hence Geithner’s latest gambit

dude – I have thick skin- never an apology needed for any comment. No- to answer your question- prices have leveled off- worst is over for this area as far as depreciation. Not saying it’s all sunny skies by any means- it will be a slow market for some time.

Also- I responded to you comment on another thread- can’t remember the title- but you were saying something to the effect that I was “all for” the Soviet destruction of Berlin . . . hmm . . . not sure if that was quite what I was saying. . .

Correct me if I’m wrong because I know you’re the smartest guy in the room here, but haven’t the banks had plenty of “liquidity” thrown at it by the Feds since TARP I? If so, then what are they doing with those funds? How can that be a “liquidity crisis” if they’re using much of the money to recapitalize themselves and sit on the money waiting for better qualified lending opportunities (e.g. parking it treasuries)?

It’s clearly a solvency issue on Main Street and clearly was one in the banks until all of the funny money and to-big-to fail guarantees arrived from Washington.

……As an addendum to that one of my sources is in Baltimore…not far from DC and he tells me prices have definitely bottomed….volume is down but the market is not dead by any means…..so are prices still falling precipitously in the DC hinterlands.