I was on Yahoo Tech Ticker yesterday afternoon discussing the possibility of a Bear Market Rally –(but I was not referring to a 250 point pop the next day!).

If you want to be horrified have a read of the comments — you will be aghast. unbelievably ignorant. I don’t know whether to laugh at these people or cry at the level of financial literacy in our society.

And for real $#%ts and giggles, go read the comments for the August interview, calling the bounce a “ Sucker’s Rally.” You have to think there is something Darwinian about people that dumb losing lots of money.

If Yahoo understood the web better, and wanted to make Tech Ticker more useful, they would sift through the sheer and overwhelming idiocy of the ‘tards that post there and delete the worst of it. And if they lack the cojones to hire an editor, than crowd-source it: Empower a few “super users” to delete the dumbest of the messages — spam, political garbage, or sheer idiocy — and make the site valuable (again).

The failure to do that is why Yahoo message boards have been losing share to places like Investor Village.>

>


>

Previously:
Sucker’s Rally? (August 13th, 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/suckers-rally/

Source:
“Big Bear Market Rally Coming,” Says Noted Bear Barry Ritholtz
Aaron Task
Yahoo Tech Ticker Mar 10, 2009 08:35am

http://bit.ly/7KgSG

Category: Earnings, Markets, Trading

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

100 Responses to “Bear Market Rally”

  1. karen says:

    Great stage presence, Barry! Exceptional content as well. Commenters were too absurd, couldn’t continue reading…

  2. CNBC Sucks says:

    I don’t know how you do it, Barry. I cannot do what you do. You fight day after day for the virtues of objectivity, critical thinking, and reality under your own real name. Economically, we are not at a war, but a civil war, in which armies of the opposite side are conscripted against us by their own ignorance, gullibility, belief-system-impaired perceptions of reality, and self-destroying sociopolitical dogma.

    I don’t know how we Americans compete against Europe and Asia when we are so divided within our own borders.

    My hat is off to you and anyone else who has the stomach to keep fighting intellectually for what is right for our country against all odds.

  3. I was buying when there was panic last October/November. I thought we would do a 50% retrace and we didn’t quite get there. Once it became obvious that we were going to make new lows I got back out in time to not suffer any losses.

    This time I think I am going to wait for a sustained upward trend before getting back in. There is always uncertainty but I would rather wait for 1-2 good quarters from the banks, the resolving of the GM situation and to see if Eastern Europe avoids blowing up. I would rather lose the first 30% of a bull market then get in too early.

    Also, I remain unconvinced that we are due for any sort of sustained bull market. The fundamentals of the economy are still broken and I disagree with the government’s response to this crisis. I’ll be back if (when) there is a solid foundation in place.

  4. steveplace says:

    Or, perhaps, they could set up a third party comment system (Disqus, Intense Debate) that removes anonymity and adds value to comments from well known users.

    Sort of like what should happen here ;)

  5. Jdamon33 says:

    My WFC buy under $8 last week is looking better and better. I may even make a little money from this dead cat bounce. Picked up some SSO last week in the $14′s as well.

    After 2 1/2 months of non-stop selling, you had to see this coming. Just had to. Also, take a look at China. Their market has been strong all year. They may be the first ones to recover, which may lead us out of the woods at some point. The Hang Seng is looking might cheap these days….

  6. Keith D. says:

    Another reason why personal finance and financial concepts should be taught at the high school level. Too many people walk out of HS with no knowledge of finance yet somehow become armchair financial experts. Heck, most universities don’t require a finance course for their GED.

    I think you need to do more TV appearances on non-news networks and programs. Then perhaps you’d get through to the crackpots out there. Who knows, you could be the next Suze Orman, except you’d know what you’re talking about.

  7. Mannwich says:

    Speaking of idiotic commentary, Cramer taken out to the woodshed again by Jon Stewart:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/10/jon-stewart-rips-into-jim_n_173454.html

  8. Mannwich says:

    @jdamon33: Weren’t you buying WFC at around $$15-17 or so? I seem to recall you were.

  9. Optionstrader says:

    As a trader I am always on the lookout for any meaningful short term move in either direction.
    I do not understand why Barry or other “BIG PICTURE” ( not the site, the real high level view ) people care about it that much.
    Like at least one other great trader has said and I agree, the market has been anticipating a mega 30-40% rally like the one in other circumstances similar to these, in the midst of the massive market crash.
    This gets the focus off of the main crash.
    After 740 on Nov, it seemed everything was ok for a while with targets of anywhere from 900 to 1100 on the S&P 500.
    Seems to be everyone is still afraid of missing the rally instead of worrying of further erosion.
    Look at the put/call ratio, very low. Yesterdays call/put ratio in the ISEE ? 220, its 50 dma is at 130.

    In any case the rallies are becoming shorter and shorter, todays rally does seem to have some legs bt so did all the others.
    I am hearing on FASB 157, m2m hearing on Thursday with Big Ben opposing it today at 9:15 am.
    So can we say buy on rumor and then keep selling on any news?

  10. super_trooper= says:

    Out of curiosity, do you sift throug the posts here and delete the worst?

    ~~~

    BR: I have editors that delete off topic, offensive, or just plain dumb comments.
    And, we have a pretty aggressive spam filter (Akismet Spam)

    All of this is detailed in our Terms of Use/Disclosures link

  11. Keith D. says:

    Oh they better not revise SFAS 157, I’m in the middle of writing a paper on it! lol

    On another note, first rule of Yahoo – don’t read the comments. It’s like AOL chatrooms in the ’90′s – most people are still wondering what the “inter-net” is. It’s a cesspool of stupidity.

  12. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Quote from one of the first Yahoo Tech Ticker dickweeds:

    “Same bullshit, different day. At least put a smoking hot chick out there. This guy looks like Lumpy from Leave it to Beaver.”

    Apparently, Dude tunes-in for reasons other than investing info.

    BTW, BR, you don’t look like Lumpy. I knew Lumpy Rutherford, and you’re no Lumpy Rutherford.

    As for the rally – people who don’t mind getting their brains dashed-out on the rocks below should go ahead and leap (a better analogy might be – those who rush to collect fish when the ocean suddenly disappears). Those with the agility to get in and out quickly might do okay, but the risks are very large and very real. I only wish I could sell tickets to spectators. I’m staying on high, solid ground – half cash, half physical PMs. Guess I’m conservative (hell, in this environment, maybe I’m a fool – who knows?), after all.

  13. inkblue says:

    Love blogs, hate comments. Maybe we should get rid of free speech for the ignorant.

  14. smittydc11 says:

    I understand the need to make comparisons to past crisis and crashes — but when are people going to realize this is not the 20s or the dotcom bubble.

    I don’t have the numbers in front of me (anyone want to look them up?), but the sectors affected by this crash are more numerous and a larger share of GDP (finance, energy, manufacturing, services, trade, housing); the problem is much more global in distribution and magnitude (Iceland?!?! Eastern Europe default, etc), and governments have less fiscal space to respond.

    A similar example of poor comparisons: I keep hearing bulls say this isn’t as bad as the Great Depression because then we had unemployment numbers of 25%. Well, guess what: we didn’t hit that point until 1933, four years after the crash. At this point in 1930 the rate was ~7%.

    Until AIG and the banks (globally, not just in the US) clean up the bad derivatives, the financial markets are going nowhere but down. Then the real sector will start a recovery, which will take 2-3 years… if we’re lucky.

  15. GB says:

    Barry read some of the Yahoo posts and must say if that’s a snapshot of the American public we should be very worried.

    Thanks for your insight and info. Keep up the great job and thanks for sharing your knowledge with us.

  16. larster says:

    Maybe we should consign Shelby’s and McCain’s comments re financial crisis to the Yahoo msg bd. The general public are not the only ones that are ignmorant.

  17. Clem Stone says:

    Better Lumpy Rutherford than Eddie Haskell, i suppose.

  18. ottovbvs says:

    ………Actually I pointed out a few days ago that Doug Kass was calling a bottom and a modest rally but was roundly condemned by some here who might fit your category….. Frankly this is Cassandra Central …..On every topic you can name …..prospects for the stimulus…immediate nationalization of several of the large banks….dollar outlook…..Geithner/Summers don’t know what they’re doing…. AIG counterparty trades…. etc etc…..Largely it’s irrational bs by people who have only the shakiest grasp of how real life operates….In other cases I assume some posters have agendas….Do we really think we don’t have more understanding of how economics works than FDR did in 1933?……..The fact is there are some great bargains out there for people who know their industries (in my case construction/ag equipment , medical equipment and oil services) and who as you said in your piece want to hold the stock for awhile.

  19. ottovbvs says:

    larster Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
    Maybe we should consign Shelby’s and McCain’s comments re financial crisis to the Yahoo msg bd. The general public are not the only ones that are ignmorant.

    …….You clearly didn’t see BR’s piece endorsing these lamebrains a couple of days ago……Next BR will be applauding Jim Bunning for his financial acumen.

  20. Broken says:

    Covered 15% of my short position before yesterdays close to end the day 18% short, 22% long, 60% cash. Bought GE, CAT, SKYW, and more BAC. Can’t complain.

    The question is: will this rally last through Friday?

  21. 10 cc says:

    Whenever stocks get oversold enough, Wall Street has to spin some yarn for the “benefit” of the great many who are not technicians. Last week it was “China”. That didn’t work out so now Citi is actually a well-run, “profitable” company after all. If that peters out, then suspension of mark to market is waiting in the wings. It’s always something.

    Meanwhile, back in the tent cities, I’m sure they’re gathered around the campfires with their Wall Street Journals, hanging on every word.

  22. Mike in Nola says:

    Funny that 5% ain’t as many points as it used to be.

  23. Aristotle says:

    Admit it Barry, it was the “looks like Lumpy from Leave it to Beaver”, wasn’t it? LMAO ;-)

    No disrespect intended, your blog is great.

  24. HCF says:

    Reports are out that the uptick rule may get reinstated. Because of course, the short sellers were purely responsible for all of this mess….

    HCF

  25. leftback says:

    Yes, I think a reinstatement of the uptick rule has been telegraphed. Everyone has been discussing it. That may be part of what got the shorts itchy on Friday. So now we have a rally off the “Leftback Bottom” at 666.79.

    A lot depends on the next move, a screamer from here would just bring out sellers, I think. On the other hand, a pull back and bounce off 690 or higher would be bullish for a much more sustainable rally. Higher lows would bring in buyers from the sidelines, so look at the volume on up and down days from here. Plenty of room overhead to the 50DMA if this thing starts to roll.

  26. Jdamon33 says:

    Mannwich, you are correct, I bought some shares at 20, got stopped out at $19, bought some more at $15 and got stopped out at $13 ish. Hopefully the 3rd time is a charm. Knowing my luck with my long positions, I will get stopped out at my $7.15 stop loss price.

    Unfortunately, my FXP position is just getting killed. that is why I think China may come roaring back first.

  27. I thought the interview w/BR was very informative. He made a clear, fact-based case to support his theory. Even I understood it.

    CNBCSucks: sell the sizzle, not the steak, but u know that.

  28. leftback says:

    CNBCSucks: not as much interest in Kernen’s cup size?

    BTW if you don’t watch Bloomberg, you are missing Michelle Makori, Scarlett Fu and Betty Liu.

  29. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater:

    The title alone was worth the read. The article was good, too – unintended consequences and a nation of Vikings backed-up against a wall. Can’t wait to see how it plays out for MS.

    Dan Duncan posted some dialog yesterday from ‘The Princess Bride’. Here’s an excerpt, followed by an addition:

    Vizzini: “. . .You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha…”

    And another, equally important and even less well known:

    Never try to skull f* a Viking.

  30. harold hecuba says:

    …”.Do we really think we don’t have more understanding of how economics works than FDR did in 1933?”……..

    nope not a chance. new lows in store.

  31. DL says:

    Yeah, bring back the uptick rule.

    The Dow will be back to 14K in no time.

    (Idiots).

  32. DC says:

    No matter what Pisani says, this is the Jon Stewart Rally.

    Stewart cold-cocked the entire CNBC circus — which extends to the trading floor by way of Steve Grasso and other professional bedwetters — and they’re still reeling.

    I loved seeing Cramer soiling himself yet again this morning, with his nursemaid Erin alongside. He’s left pathetic far behind and now creates a new level of sniveling weasel.

    It’s lately occurred to me that the CNBC logo should be replaced with a picture of C. Montgomery Burns.

  33. zitidiamond says:

    “JIM CRAMER: A comedian’s attacking me! Wow! He runs a variety show!”

    Uhh… Jon Stewart documents his comedy with facts, which is more than Cramer and his colleagues do at CNBC.

  34. Mannwich says:

    Me-thinks the Daily Show producers and Stewart understand just how much this theme on CNBC and Cramer et all has legs for its show and will likely pound this theme for weeks to come. I couldn’t be happier about that. Pretty sad that a comedy show has to be the one to expose CNBC for the farce that it is……

  35. dead hobo says:

    Any guesses where this rally will top out and about when it will happen? Anyone? I haven’t been too good at reading the market lately but some here haven’t done too bad. I bought some stuff at S&P 900 and want to sell it at a minimum loss so I can buy the next dip and hopefully break even on the next rally.

  36. @Marcus Aurelius: NEVER argue with The SAMPO… ;)

  37. Todd says:

    I’m not counting this as a rally until it breaks the 10 day moving average. It’s bouncing around it since 12.

    At least the timing is right and this is a good start for a potential rally. We are about 30 days before 1st Qtr Earnings start coming out, nice amount of room to run before reality knocks on the door.

  38. leftback says:

    Barry, what day did the FDR rally start in 1933? Isn’t this almost 76 years to the day?
    History rhyming again?

  39. Pretty sad that a comedy show has to be the one to expose CNBC for the farce that it is……

    It’s not sad. Comedy has always played the role of bringing down the mighty by displaying their own hypocrisy.

    As a little munchkin in the 1970s, I inherited my dad’s entire collection of MAD magazines going back to 1958, when Ernie Kovacs was a guest editor, and read them cover to cover 1,000 times. I learned quite a lot about the world in that era, because the quality of satire and writing in Mad magazine at that time was at a peak that it never hit again. Satire only works if it’s true. Stewart understands this.

  40. dead hobo says:

    Todd Said:
    March 10th, 2009 at 2:15 pm

    At least the timing is right and this is a good start for a potential rally. We are about 30 days before 1st Qtr Earnings start coming out, nice amount of room to run before reality knocks on the door.

    comment:

    Good point about the new quarter. Now about timing it. Will April / May be the first rally peak or the second? My gut says it will peak before 3/31 and rally back in April / May, but my gut also told me to put a toe in the water a few months ago. Damn gut.

  41. Mannwich says:

    I hear you Douglas, but a comedy show shouldn’t be the only outlet that’s doing the exposing. It should be one of many.

  42. leftback says:

    Todd is right. AA reports early April. I doubt if we would want to be long that week.

  43. franklin411 says:

    Barry,
    It’s not a lack of economic literacy as much as it is the general lack of inquisitiveness that marks 95% of the world population. When you get right down to it, we’re all about the same in terms of intrinsic intelligence. What separates the dimwits from the geniuses is that smart people are interested in learning. Idiots are not. Most people are idiots by choice.

  44. Mannwich: True.

    This gets to my second point: news is now just a category of entertainment. Unless a news program is entertaining it gets cancelled or rejiggered to make it more entertaining. Until the late 1980s, networks allowed their news departments to lose money because it was correctly believed that (a) the airwaves belong to the public and (b) there is a great societal value and need on professional quality (ie. objective and comprehensive) news gathering. Well that shit went out the window when the FCC and Congress allowed media aggregation and cross-market ownership and consolidation. Now news departments at networks have to be profitable or else they are rejiggered to make them profitable.

    Is it sad? Yes. Is it fixable? Yes. We can start by re-instating all of the pre-Reagan FCC restrictions on cross-ownership of media properties, place caps on the number of properties anyone can hold, and actually enforce the public service requirements that are a legal requirement for use of the public’s airwaves. The objective here is not to dictate content, but to reestablish a somewhat level playing field for those media entities who actually wish to present quality product and do not want to be at a competitive disadvantage for doing so. The use of the public airwaves gives the people, us, a unique role to create incentives and disincentives to ensure our property is used to benefit, not hoodwink, us.

  45. leftback Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
    Barry, what day did the FDR rally start in 1933? Isn’t this almost 76 years to the day?
    History rhyming again?

    Reply:

    Pretty close, but FDR wasn’t inaugurated until March.

    But just go ahead and do it for the Obamaphiles: This rally is very obviously the fruition of policies implemented by the Obama Administration in managing the financial crisis it inherited from Bush.

    Correlation always equals causation for those that prefer not to think.

  46. Mannwich says:

    @Douglas: Exactly. And this disturbing trend is undoubtedly related to franklin411′s statement right above yours.

    For far too many, curiousity in interest in learning something new requires too much effort, and usually results in facts that lead to conclusions that things aren’t as honky-dory as they had previously thought, so they stick their heads in the sand for as long as they can. Idiocracy is upon us.

  47. Mannwich says:

    @Curmudgeon: Nobody here is saying that, are they? Your ideological stripes are showing. Quick, cover them up before too many figure out your agenda.

  48. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-Red-Flag-for-Markets-cnbc-14596385.html

    New Red Flag for Markets: Credit Is Tightening Again

    It is so beautiful outside this afternoon that being in the office is torture…

  49. @Mannwich:

    I’ve got no ideology. The anti-Obamas attributed the fall since the election to him. I figure the stupidity runs both ways.

    My point? Neither camp has a clue. That, and that the political prism is about the worst way possible to view the world if you hope to gain an understanding of its reality.

  50. Mannwich says:

    @Curmudgeon: OK, sorry for my cranky retort. I agree. Nobody really has a clue about how to solve this mess.

  51. ottovbvs says:

    HCF Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
    Reports are out that the uptick rule may get reinstated. Because of course, the short sellers were purely responsible for all of this mess….

    ………Good it’s about time…..And as far as know no one has suggested short sellers are responsible for this mess so spare us the straw man bs……They have however been a contributor to market instability

  52. Jlvngstn says:

    There are plenty of us idiots out there who cannot grasp intellectually the crisis. Some of us lurk here, reading you trying to make sense of it all. you have your idiot following, we just try not to expose ourselves…

  53. Mannwich says:

    I have no problem with the uptick rule being reinstated. Why was it removed to begin with? I may be wrong but I’m guessing industry players wanted it removed so they could benefit. Now that they’re no longer benefiting, they want it reinstated, like the whole getting rid of mark-to-market argument. The big players simply change the rules at suits them consequences on everyone and everything else be damned. More dressing up drapes and moving furniture around the titanic.

  54. ottovbvs says:

    “My point? Neither camp has a clue. ”

    ………Don’t agree……I think Summers/Bernanke/Geithner have a fairly good idea of what’s required…..It’s going to require some experimentation….they’ll get some of it wrong…..but they know what the problems are in broad terms and they’ve got strategies for dealing with them……Just because they don’t invite you, Rick Santelli, Jim Cramer, Senators Shelby and McCain, or even the reasonably qualified like Krugman, over to give their sign off doesn’t mean they don’t know what they are doing.

  55. ottovbvs says:

    Mannwich Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
    I have no problem with the uptick rule being reinstated. Why was it removed to begin with? I may be wrong but I’m guessing industry players wanted it removed so they could benefit.

    ……..You’re not wrong…….it was seen as a brake on free market operations which was contrary to govt ideology…..therefore it had to go.

  56. HCF says:

    @ottovbvs:
    > no one has suggested short sellers are responsible for this mess so spare us the straw man bs……They have however been a contributor to market instability

    I am perfectly happy with the reinstatement of the uptick rule because it is literally USELESS. Ever since decimalization of trading, one can get around the uptick easily. Let’s say a stock is trading at $10. With an uptick, you buy 10 shares at $10.01 and then short 1,000 shares at $10.02 or something like that.

    Why are short sellers scapegoated for “market instability”? Why not blame the sellers of the stock, or even better, all those damn non-buyers out there. Believe me, if there had been a lot of demand for, say, Citigroup stock, it would not be selling for less than the price of a crunchwrap supreme from Taco Bell.

    HCF

  57. @ottobvs:

    Yes, I’m sure Summers/Bernanke/Geithner have it all under control. They are much wiser than you and I. They are the new Masters of the Universe (now that the old Masters at the ibanks are waiting tables). LTCM, itself run by Nobel-fucking prize winners, started it all back in 1998, and yet we still believe them to somehow be better than us. Warren Buffett’s conglomerate is down nearly 50% over the last year (stock price), yet we still hang on every utterance from his mouth.

    It’s quite curious, really, this visceral belief that so many have that if we just get the bestest and brightest brains to manage the unmanageable, then everything will be okay.

    Believe if you must. I prefer reality to faith.

  58. ben22 says:

    @jdamon,

    Just a word of caution, trying to predict any Chinese stock movements based on what FXP is doing is not a winning strategy. Had you followed that in 08 you would have been buying China all the way down.

    @otto,

    I’m curious what ag equipment names you are looking at if you are willing to share. My biggest long position is in MON, not equipment I know but am very interested in the ag sector right now.

  59. Mannwich says:

    @ben22: It’s not ag equipment but have you taken a look at MOS? It’s had a nice run lately but has seen some resistance in the $44-$45 range. I keep waiting for it to break out. Perhaps it won’t and has had its run but I kind of like it for the long term (whatever that means these days). I’ve been trading around this position for quite a while now since it was in the low $30′s.

  60. ben,

    re: MON, see:

    http://www.seedsofdeception.com/Public/Home/index.cfm

    http://www.doublestandards.org/smith2.html

    LSS: there are other, ‘as good’, ways to play the “Ag”s

  61. It’s not a lack of economic literacy as much as it is the general lack of inquisitiveness that marks 95% of the world population. — Franklin.

    I have to disagree with that. Kids are naturally curious. As anyone familiar with radio and television broadcasting knows, the first thing you learn is what you aren’t allowed to say or talk about, upon penalty of being fired. Then you learn, through the ratings system, that if you don’t hit the proper ratings alchemy, you get fired. Lots and lots of negative incentives for exploration. Big incentive for staying on the well rutted path.

    It’s not the lack of a curious audience. It’s a reward/profit system that is slanted severely against experimentation and toward homogeniety. Witness this: every local tee vee news show anywhere in the U.S. basically looks, sounds and feels exactly the same. Right down to the logos. This is not accidental. They pay consultants for this shit. The entire industry of radio playlist formats is to narrow down a radio playlist to 200 songs and put those songs on 2,000 stations and play them over and over and over, with no human intermediation required.

    The fact that Jon Stewart’s wonky, but very funny show is a ratings winner shows that there are still a lot of curious people in the world who wish to engage.

    The fact that Barry’s website exists, and all of you folks are on it, attests to this as well.

  62. this: It’s not a lack of economic literacy as much as it is the general lack of inquisitiveness that marks 95% of the world population. — Franklin.

    I have to disagree with that. Kids are naturally curious. As anyone familiar with radio and television broadcasting knows, the first thing you learn is what you aren’t allowed to say or talk about, upon penalty of being fired. Then you learn, through the ratings system, that if you don’t hit the proper ratings alchemy, you get fired. Lots and lots of negative incentives for exploration. Big incentive for staying on the well rutted path.

    It’s not the lack of a curious audience. It’s a reward/profit system that is slanted severely against experimentation and toward homogeniety. Witness this: every local tee vee news show anywhere in the U.S. basically looks, sounds and feels exactly the same. Right down to the logos. This is not accidental. They pay consultants for this shit. The entire industry of radio playlist formats is to narrow down a radio playlist to 200 songs and put those songs on 2,000 stations and play them over and over and over, with no human intermediation required.

    The fact that Jon Stewart’s wonky, but very funny show is a ratings winner shows that there are still a lot of curious people in the world who wish to engage.

    The fact that Barry’s website exists, and all of you folks are on it, attests to this as well.”

    from DW, above, should be re-read, and, well, understood..

    also, it should be noted, we live in one of the most closed Media markets on the Globe..

  63. leftback says:

    Mark: How were the mushrooms? Mr Shorty seems to have had a bit of a mauling today.

  64. Whammer says:

    @Curmudgeon: I’ll echo Mannwich above, from a comment I made to you on a previous thread. I did misinterpret what you said, sorry.

  65. Andy Tabbo says:

    So. That inverted H&S target comes in around 723 and it lines up with a previous intraday peak. I didn’t expect it to get there today. We’ll likely get “carry through” buying overnight and on the open tomorrow. John Q. public will hear about the rally today and be a buyer on the open. Short term traders who happened to get long nearer the lows the last few days (there were a few of us on this site) should consider lightening up a little into the 719-723 range. (719 being the 1.618*a=c up from the lows.) We should see some kind of pullback after the “public” buys tomorrow a.m….maybe 690-700 range?

    For longer term folks, this was a very bullish day. It looks like a CONFIRMED “doji” star bottom on the Daily Candlesticks. The “bullish tower” today nicely engulfed the “bearish tower” from three days ago with two nice dojis sandwiched in between. Today action engulfed the last several days of trading…meaning anyone who sold short the previous seven trading sessions is “underwater” and maybe feeling a little “trapped.”

    I would be surprised if we can’t build on this next several days to set up a a real battle in the 740′s….There will be a lot of resistance in that zone….will be a very interesting battle indeed.

  66. Mike in Nola says:

    Marc Faber has been talking about a strong rally that will probably last til April or so because all the freshly printed money has to go somewhere. Unfortunately, I’ve tried to trade on such predctions and have fewer toes than before. I do think when it happens, it will be stronger and last longer than anyone expects before collapsing.

  67. lb,

    they were sweeter, I’m sure, than the Shorts’ thoughts about this Rally..though, said Rally didn’t look very strong, at least it closed-up, into the bell..

    mycology, though, is gaining serious pursuers, especially in ‘bio-tech’–the Industrial Lab boys are remembering that these things are useful for many applications..

    Amanita Genome Project – H. E. Hallen & J. Walton. The project’s goal is a thorough study of the genome of Amanita bisporigera. http://www.msu.edu/user/hallenhe/amanita.htm
    Gene family encoding the toxins of lethal Amanita mushrooms. – H. E. Hallen, H. Luo, J. S. Scott-Craig, J. D. Walton. 2007. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 104: 19097-19101. [ Abstract ]

    Primer Note: Using the incomplete genome of the ectomycorrhizal fungus Amanita bisporigera to identify molecular polymorphisms in the related Amanita phalloides. – R. I. Adams, H. E. Hallen, A. Pringle. 2006. Molec. Ecol. Notes 6: 218-220 [ PDF ]

    Duke Mycolab – Agaric Phylogeny project

    Molecular Systematics of Amanita – J.-M. Moncalvo et al. At the following site, select from list at bottom of page. [ view ]

    Phylogeny of Amanita – D. Drehmel et al. At the following site, select from list at bottom of page.
    [ view ]
    http://pluto.njcc.com/~ret/amanita/moleculr.html

  68. ottovbvs says:

    Id

  69. Gawdfather says:

    Damn, took a spanking today. Didn’t cover my shorts, though.

    There hasn’t been two up days in a row since Feb. 5th and 6th, so we’ll see tomorrow if today was the start of a rally or just a DCB.

  70. HCF says:

    @ Gawdfather:

    I’m with you brother… Today’s just one of those days to grab your ankles and take it if you have a bearish view and at least an intermediate (weeks to months) time horizon. I’m just glad I’m not 100% short. Mostly cash with some shorts (~20%) and some longs (~20%). Unfortunately, the shorts were down 20% while the longs were only up 2% or so. Doh!

    HCF

  71. ottovbvs says:

    ben22 Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
    @otto,

    I’m curious what ag equipment names you are looking at if you are willing to share. My biggest long position is in MON, not equipment I know but am very interested in the ag sector right now.

    ……..Nothing terribly original some Cat a couple of days ago at 22 and change which is pre split price after dot com bust….or Deere at 24 and change….Both cyclicals not overleveraged and were oversold…

  72. leftback says:

    @AT: Too true. Selling at 9.35am and buying at 3,55pm invariably makes more money than the converse…

    A pull-back to 690 (higher low) followed by a high volume bounce would be very bullish in the medium term.

    Mr. Shorty should consider that some DCBs can be rather substantial. Remember last spring, anyone? December? Like I said, the Bear doesn’t just bite the longs.

  73. Mike C says:

    http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

    “During a long decline, two “teams” are likely to form. The first is made up of inveterate bulls; these are the optimists who are waiting anxiously for the first sign of an upturn in order to climb aboard. The second team is made up of stubborn bears; as their profits on the short side grow, they are liable to grow bolder (adding more shorts) and more bearish (‘it looks like it’s going to cut itself in half on this one’). Both lines of reasoning are calculated ultimately to produce a single result – an explosive bear market rally; but, when is the rally coming? . . .”

    …“Track of the Bear” by Richard Russell, Barron’s 1966

    Like I said yesteday, just reading the comments on this blog the last 2 weeks ONE HAD TO KNOW there were way too D*** many people on that second team. Just curious, if you are net short here, do you cover and look to reenter shorts higher, or do you just “short and hold” here regardless of how high this “bear market rally” goes. FWIW, 3:1 to 4:1 odds I think this is a bear market rally and we still go ultimately lower before putting in the final bottom, but I am 110% sure when the final bottom does in fact occur (with the benefit of hindsight) it will occur when the news and fundamentals are terrible. I’m genuinely curious what the exit strategy is on short positions that have been held say the last 12-24 months. S&P down 60%? 75% 90% I always try to remember the bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered

  74. DiggidyDan says:

    DAMN, Shoulda bought my ADM, BHP, BP, CVX, and PCU Yesterday! Hope AT is right about this being a sustained snapback rally up to upper 900′s before the bottom falls out again for the ultimate low. Sell in May and go away for the final blow! Come on baby get back up there so i can dump my losers that cut their dividends and then go back down to S&P 474.

  75. ottovbvs says:

    ben22 Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
    @otto,

    I’m curious what ag equipment names you are looking at if you are willing to share. My biggest long position is in MON, not equipment I know but am very interested in the ag sector right now.

    ….Nothing very original……A couple of days ago Cat at 22 and change which is pre split low after dot com bust….Deere at around 24…..both cyclicals completely oversold…..In fact any company in this sector in 1 or 2 market position that is not overleveraged looks good.

  76. ben22 says:

    @Mannwich,

    Yeah, I looked at MOS back in November when I did a lot of buying and I’m doing a little kicking I didn’t buy it then. My best stock since then was FCX. I don’t know all that much about MOS or even POT for that matter but a cheaper way to play that from both a price and p/e perspective might be in DD. Might be worth taking a look at.

    @ Otto,

    I sort of figured that’s what you were looking at. I also picked up some CAT in the low 20′s. That looked pretty cheap to me.

    @ MarkH

    Always have to bring things back to reality, I read those links, ….ugly! I had heard a lot about these things and MON before. I only buy it for the Round-up exposure, lol. This seems similar to the “benefits” of fluoride that I have been reading about lately.

    RE all: shorts

    I’ve had a real hard time staying short anything this year as I think a lot has already been discounted and I’m certain I can’t pick the exact bottom so I have been buying the last few weeks and did a lot of buying back in Nov. that said, SRS has dropped like a rock the last few days and I think trading in and out of that this year could be very profitable. As for QID and the broad index ultra’s, I’ll leave that for braver souls like Steve B. If I were as right as him I’d probably also be as brave.

    As for another short, I sold TBT for a nice profit early in the year as I was spooked Bernanke was going to announce a more descriptive plan regarding the Fed and purchase of the long bonds, TBT has actually moved up some since I sold it and for an ultra short I’d dare say it’s actually pretty stable. I agree with Faber on this one that it is a 28 year bubble and you can make money for some time to come so I’ll go back to this at some point this year. Even the govt agrees with this investment. In that budget assumptions they had the 10 year with a 5 something % yield a few years out (2012 or 13 I think)

  77. ottovbvs says:

    DiggidyDan Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 5:16 pm

    …..Don’t disagree with the sell in May scenario but it’s not going down to 474………it’s going to tread water in the sixes and sevens until the fall and then see the usual late year lift…..I repeat what I’ve said here many times before….Geithner/Summers/Bernanke DO KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING…..Ring fence around banks…..no major failures….. no major nationalizations (sorry BR)…..focus on the real economy……let the market take care of itself…….by the end of the year signs of spring……

  78. ben22 says:

    one more thought on ag, you could always just get long DBA if you liked that space.

  79. ben22 says:

    you know, I’m nowhere near AT’s level on the charts but if you are trying to time I just don’t know why people just don’t buy the Trader’s Almanac and sign up for the letter. You can get the MACD timing indicator that way, would have worked like a charm for you in 2008.

  80. ben,

    re: Round-up, see:

    http://www.mindfully.org/Pesticide/Monsanto-Roundup-Glyphosate.htm

    http://www.organicconsumers.org/monlink.cfm

    LSS: there’s not much that they(MON) do that’s Economically worthwhile..

  81. Ventura2012 says:

    With short interest and put/call ratios so low and everyone now so bullish does anyone else think we could be setting up for a washout?

  82. ottovbvs says:

    ben22 Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 6:28 pm

    …….Cat were a steal at 22 and change……Look at the whole sector…..If it’s 1 or 2 in its market and not overleveraged it’s worth a look……also some of these oil service businesses which have been completely oversold……oil back to 60 which is not a stretch and what happens.

  83. harold hecuba says:

    the only thing to skyrocket this year will be the unemployment rate and the savings rate. earnings continue to deteriorate and equities are about earnings. look for continued new lows whenever this euphoria phase based on nothing runs out. yes bernanke the recession will end before 4th quarter 2009. as a matter of fact it has already ended the mild depression has begun. look for a more severe depression as the year wears on. we are losing 600k jobs per month someone please tell me where the new jobs are to come from besides the ditch diggers on gov payroll. s+p 450

  84. ottovbvs says:

    harold hecuba Says:

    March 10th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
    “yes bernanke the recession will end before 4th quarter 2009. as a matter of fact it has already ended”

    …….Er….using the trad method of measurement it hasn’t ended since were almost certainly going to see negative growth in this quarter and probably the next two…….with your loose use of the terms recession and depression you seem rather confused……Unemployment will continue to rise but I don’t see too many more quarters at 600+, maybe one or two taking us to a 9% or so unemployment rate……If you think the SP is going to 450 you’re welcome to short all you like.

  85. harold hecuba says:

    LOL gdp has dropped 10% in the US and is plummetting across the globe. industrial production is plummetting across the globe. capacity utilization has plummetted across the globe. global trade has halted with japanese exports plummetting to record lows. china cpi just went negative. interest rates in the US are zero and globally zero interest rate policy is close behind. central banks are the backstops of global credit which refuse to function whatsoever. stockmarkets have plummeted 50% across the globe. the housing bubble has busted across the globe. the US is losing 600k jobs per month 14 straight months of job losses. former major IB shithouses are bust. consumer confidence is at record lows. earnings 4th quarter s+p went negative for first time in history. commercial real estate is plummetting across the globe. YEAH i’d say we are in a mild slowdown. we are in a depression and the worst is to follow. all asset prices will continue to decline including gold.

  86. tippet523 says:

    BR

    Great posts by all but while this group might be clear thinking as a group it is still a relativley small group. A great post like this might get 60-80 comments. On the pakers blog if the reporter said Donald Driver is overpaid and should be cut you would get 700 plus comments in an hour easy.

    Lets not forget how strong the upside can be when the masses decide it is ok.

    Will

  87. rktbrkr says:

    I think CITI is going to have a very bad March – I mean how else will they explain major losses in the 1Q 09 after sahib Pandit announced a good January & February?

  88. karen says:

    Andy, thank you, thank you. This is just what I wanted to read: “So. That inverted H&S target comes in around 723 and it lines up with a previous intraday peak. I didn’t expect it to get there today. We’ll likely get “carry through” buying overnight and on the open tomorrow.” “I would be surprised if we can’t build on this next several days to set up a a real battle in the 740’s….” I didn’t part with any of my longs today… Just returned from a 3 hour beach walk/run on the minus tide… I had lots of good music with me. Hope you got the lyrics to the G. Love you bot the other day… Rodeo Clowns is such a fun one. Relax is nice too.

  89. WhipTail says:

    As idiotic as the Yahoo posters seem to be, I can assure you that they are not a “cross section” of America. Sadly, it would be my guess that they are more informed than the average person about economic issues. Anyone who doubts that the average American is, as Barry bluntly puts it, an idiot, should spend 180 days a year in a high school classroom like I do.

    On the other hand, I am convinced that most people who actively invest and post on financial websites are in an ignorance bubble of their own. They have no idea that less than 30% of Americans of college degrees and that the median income is $50,000 a year. They think the President should be willing to work for $400,000 a year, but $500,000 for bank CEOs will drive away talent.

    Ignorance and idiocy are relative.

  90. patfla says:

    MON may be a good (very good) long-term investment. Perhaps a mini-MS of genetically modified seeds (and other ‘cutting edge’ agricultural products). And (unlike MS) they’ve moved to the subscription based business model already.

    The problem is: I simply can buy their stock on ethical grounds.

    And as much as they’re carefully trying to put together their empire, I hope someone (or something) comes along and pulls the rug out from under them.

    The wife of a friend is in biotech and spent several years at MON. The task of her group was, in essence, to travel the whole world (in particular the less developed parts where the sellers had much less leverage – and greater biodiversity) and buy up the rights to the entire seed stock of the planet.

  91. patfla says:

    (was that a Freudian slip) _cannot_ buy their stock …

  92. stockwatch1 says:

    You are kidding right? Investorvillage? Apparently that site smells of week old fish left in the sun.

    Investorvillage, the site with the Qualitystocks.net buttons embedded at the top of over half of all their message boards? Boards like DGRI.PK, where the very same Pump/Dump crowd have merely moved on to the next years flavor, MDVX.OB?

    Better check that QS disclaimer. Someone might be in cahoots over on the IV site!

  93. Dang, glad I dumped SDS on friday…

  94. patfla,

    here’s another sweet story:

    “The image of Hawai‘i has always been sold as a “paradise.” But there is another side to life on this island, one that visitors rarely see.

    The west side of this tiny island is home to the U.S. military’s Pacific Missile Range and testing grounds, part of the longstanding military occupation of the Hawaiian islands, and to the headquarters of giant agrochemical corporations Syngenta and Dupont. These corporations test and produce genetically modified crops on former sugar plantation lands here and throughout Hawai‘i, along with toxic herbicides, insecticides, and fertilizers. It is the very worst of America’s “agrochemical military industrial complex,” imposed on the ancient homelands of a rich traditional farming and fishing culture, in the midst of some of the world’s most precious biodiversity.

    When I visited the west side of Kaua‘i in 2006, the local newspapers were full of reports of children from Waimea Canyon School who had been sickened by chemicals used on nearby test plots. As many as 60 people were affected, including teachers and staff. It happened again in 2007, with school children suffering nausea, headaches, and dizziness. In 2008, for the third time in three years, chemicals being tested for industrial agriculture sickened children and adults and sent them to clinics and the emergency room with tears in their eyes, holding their heads in their hands, or vomiting. The corporations responsible for the tests deny any role in the incidences. But the open air testing of chemicals and genetically modified crops is a now a persistent worry for people living in this small rural community. Local activists have suggested that the welcome sign at the Kaua‘i airport be changed to warn tourists of what is going on there: “Welcome to the Mutant Garden Island.” Instead of being a source of health and well-being for the land and people, the American system of industrial agriculture has become a source of problematic food and even fear.
    http://www.yesmagazine.org/article.asp?ID=3283

    note: America’s “agrochemical military industrial complex,”

    “The connection to the military is the key to understanding how this tragedy came about. Most of the toxic chemicals used in agriculture came from the implements of war, such as nerve poisons and defoliants developed during World War II. And our military has been repeatedly used to impose our system of industrial agriculture on other lands, depriving traditional farmers of their livelihoods and redirecting their natural resources to the use of U.S. business interests.”

    this, too, is swell:
    Change We Can Believe In: How About the End of Farmers Markets? Say Hello to H.R. 875: Food Safety Modernization Act of 2009

    “What this will do is force anyone who produces food of any kind, and then transports it to a different location for sale, to register with a new federal agency called the “Food Safety Administration.” Even growers who only sell only fruit and/or vegetables at farmers markets would not only have to register, but they would be subject inspections by federal agents of their property and all records related to food production. The frequency of these inspections will be determined by the whim of the Food Safety Administration.”
    http://cryptogon.com/?p=7362

    168. Track n’ Trace is, well, on the menu..

  95. dunnage says:

    Reminds me of how the Washington Post, New York Times handled the WMD stories. And Peak Oil. Or an oldie: Senate with Gulf of Tonkin. Powell’s grainy photos of a truck and a storage tank. Too big to fail. Systemic Risk.

    But how about Wall Street gurus, Obama is letting the Street run the Treasury yet these dudes appear to have run into a brain suck. So the dumbest of dumb this round. The world’s money centers holding all this trash. Really had only one another as customers as they package and commissioned themselves to … . And then they kept it. Their Dad’s of Wall Street preached: hype and sell the junk to your loyal customers. Now, I have seen much intelligence from the group, but that doesn’t explain their confusion about giving themselves more money. I have finally given in to the idea that there is not enough money in the world the prop up the international money centers.

  96. ottovbvs says:

    harold hecuba Says:
    March 10th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
    YEAH i’d say we are in a mild slowdown. we are in a depression and the worst is to follow.

    …….I didn’t say we were in a mild slowdown……..However your suggestions that we’ll be in a recession equal to the great depression are noted.

  97. DiggidyDan says:

    @ootovbs

    We’ll all know eventually how low it gets, I just threw mine out there for fun. I tend to disagree with you in that we haven’t seen the complete panic overreaction to something else dismal around the corner that will lead to the “capitulation” that will happen, followed by listless downward drift as nobody cares anymore. Humans have many flaws, and this will not get fixed until they all these collective flaws have shown their face and been acknowledged. Also, this doesn’t have to be equal to the great depression to get those lows. I think the voodoo analysis I did to come up with the 474 target noted that the comparable bottoms i ended up comparing to are 1919, 1933, 1966, 1974, and 1982. (not sure on exact dates, this is from my shoddy memory as i am not at my computer).

  98. DiggidyDan says:

    not that anybody is reading this one anymore, but the dates are 1920(WWI), 1933(GD), 1942(WWII), 1949(Post-War Recession), 1974(Oil Crisis Stagflation), and 1982(Iran and Inflation, the Death of Equities)

  99. bruerr says:

    Reply to dead hobo who posted March 10th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
    DH Says: “Any guesses where this rally will top out and about when it will happen? Anyone? I haven’t been too good at reading the market lately but some here haven’t done too bad. I bought some stuff at S&P 900 and want to sell it at a minimum loss so I can buy the next dip and hopefully break even on the next rally.”

    Many of us here are not market forecasters; myself included. Richard Suttmeier however, is. Mr. Suttmeier calls for this move to extend to pre-election levels.

    You can read the forecast here: http://www.valuengine.com/download/weekly/DailyBulletin_20090312502.html

    Suttmeier is affiliated with valueengine at present; it seems Chief Market Strategist.

    To quote from the forecast (in the event it does not stay in display for long): “The S&P 500 … While some may find it difficult to justify a near-term bullish case for the S&P 500 given the constant flow of negative fundamental information… the S&P 500 is oversold on its monthly chart for the first time going back to 1982. The up trend that connects the lows of the 1980’s– including the “Crash of 1987” held on Friday. From the August 1982 low of 102 to the October 2007 high of 1576, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level is major support at 659.66.

    The daily chart for the S&P 500 back to Election Day remains oversold. My forecast calls for higher highs and higher lows until the Index reaches 900 / 1000 or Memorial Day–whichever comes first.

    My call for a significant Bear Market Rally for the S&P 500 still stands.”

    Hope this helps you DH. Personally, I am not as optimistic, and think 820-875 is the best case. But as you recall above, I am not a forecaster.

    Good luck on that 900 relief.