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	<title>Comments on: Bad Advice to Owner: Don&#8217;t Walk Away</title>
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		<title>By: ben22</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150697</link>
		<dc:creator>ben22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:53:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150697</guid>
		<description>BR, 

You are right, we should be prepared for a lot more of this especially in 2010 and 2011.  Those are the big years for Alt-A and Option ARM resets.  If we keep losing 600k + jobs per month that will be a disaster.  

And for those above that think these homeowners should sit down and &quot;run the numbers&quot; well, 

If they had the energy, knowledge, or desire to do so, they probably would have never done these mortgages in the first place so lets not expect that to all the suddent start happening.  Most of them are just going to walk away, easy come, easy go.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BR, </p>
<p>You are right, we should be prepared for a lot more of this especially in 2010 and 2011.  Those are the big years for Alt-A and Option ARM resets.  If we keep losing 600k + jobs per month that will be a disaster.  </p>
<p>And for those above that think these homeowners should sit down and &#8220;run the numbers&#8221; well, </p>
<p>If they had the energy, knowledge, or desire to do so, they probably would have never done these mortgages in the first place so lets not expect that to all the suddent start happening.  Most of them are just going to walk away, easy come, easy go.</p>
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		<title>By: KevinKleen</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150620</link>
		<dc:creator>KevinKleen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:13:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150620</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s not all that clear to me he should walk. In the clip, the homeowner says he&#039;s living in his dream home and he can afford the payments.  We don&#039;t know his mortgage structure, but if it&#039;s one of the nastier teaser rate ARMs he&#039;s probably looking at LIBOR+3.5% and a 25 year amortization at the reset, which would put his payment around $2,000/mo with a $350K balance. I&#039;m not sure what his dream home is like, but how much could he save renting a decent single family home? Looking at it another way, if he bought the house down the street for $270K and put 20% down ($56K) and got a 5% fixed rate loan, his payments would be $1,160/mo on a $216K mortgage, so his payments would go down less than $1,000/month. Investing $56K in a declining market to save $1K a month does not seem like a shrewd move to me. 

My point is you can&#039;t make a walk/stay decision without working the numbers and looking at the alternatives.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s not all that clear to me he should walk. In the clip, the homeowner says he&#8217;s living in his dream home and he can afford the payments.  We don&#8217;t know his mortgage structure, but if it&#8217;s one of the nastier teaser rate ARMs he&#8217;s probably looking at LIBOR+3.5% and a 25 year amortization at the reset, which would put his payment around $2,000/mo with a $350K balance. I&#8217;m not sure what his dream home is like, but how much could he save renting a decent single family home? Looking at it another way, if he bought the house down the street for $270K and put 20% down ($56K) and got a 5% fixed rate loan, his payments would be $1,160/mo on a $216K mortgage, so his payments would go down less than $1,000/month. Investing $56K in a declining market to save $1K a month does not seem like a shrewd move to me. </p>
<p>My point is you can&#8217;t make a walk/stay decision without working the numbers and looking at the alternatives.</p>
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		<title>By: eurostoxx</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150497</link>
		<dc:creator>eurostoxx</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 03:01:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150497</guid>
		<description>Agree with you totally barry. If it was so obvious to everyone that his house was over-valued 2-3 years ago, then why did he buy it? Well its easy to say stuff like this in hindsight. But picture the guy back then, his wife is bugging him to buy thier dream home, and the longer he has been waiting the more expensive it has gotten. So he puts down 50% and figures the worst that happens is that is house price stays flat for a bunch of years. Remember even the biggest subprime shorters out thier like paulson etc didnt base thier trades on home prices declining 50%, and i dont think anyone really did. it was a possibility but not a given. 

Give this guy a break. He messed. He bought Nasdaq at 5000. Now let him take his loss. He should do what is best for himself, that is true capitalism.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agree with you totally barry. If it was so obvious to everyone that his house was over-valued 2-3 years ago, then why did he buy it? Well its easy to say stuff like this in hindsight. But picture the guy back then, his wife is bugging him to buy thier dream home, and the longer he has been waiting the more expensive it has gotten. So he puts down 50% and figures the worst that happens is that is house price stays flat for a bunch of years. Remember even the biggest subprime shorters out thier like paulson etc didnt base thier trades on home prices declining 50%, and i dont think anyone really did. it was a possibility but not a given. </p>
<p>Give this guy a break. He messed. He bought Nasdaq at 5000. Now let him take his loss. He should do what is best for himself, that is true capitalism.</p>
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		<title>By: joshtabin</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150446</link>
		<dc:creator>joshtabin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 23:26:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150446</guid>
		<description>I find some of these comments disturbing. People make mistakes, they make poor choices and they will likely make them again. However, who is more to blame here: the person who made decisions above their capability to comprehend the risks of that decision or the organization that intentionally entered into contracts with a complete disregard for the consequences. I agree that we&#039;ve become a nation of whiners but this guy is owning up to his errors and cutting his losses...any smart business or investor would do the same thing so bully for him for getting it!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I find some of these comments disturbing. People make mistakes, they make poor choices and they will likely make them again. However, who is more to blame here: the person who made decisions above their capability to comprehend the risks of that decision or the organization that intentionally entered into contracts with a complete disregard for the consequences. I agree that we&#8217;ve become a nation of whiners but this guy is owning up to his errors and cutting his losses&#8230;any smart business or investor would do the same thing so bully for him for getting it!</p>
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		<title>By: Mike in Nola</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150411</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike in Nola</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 22:12:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150411</guid>
		<description>This brings to mind one of the points made by Roubinin in a recent post on his site:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255816/the_rising_risks_of_a_global_l-shaped_near_depression_and_stag-deflation

In the post he mentions the thinking by many of the better economists (altough he does mention that Bernanke holds the view also) that the general problem the world is facing is the imbalances in trade and capital flows. The exporting countries like China and Japan have been saving too much, while we have been consuming too much. All though savings in the exporting countries got funneled back here in the form of loans that are now going bad. Until America savings rates get back to historical averages, we are going to continue to have problems.

Charts have recently been showing that America&#039;s savings rate has gone up significantly in the past year.
Roubini points out that the charts do not take into account the enormous decline in assets of many households like the subject one. It&#039;s the flip side of those who told us that we didn&#039;t need to save because our houses were increasing in value. So, our savings have not really increased as much as we think and real savings rates will not go up until value of houses and stocks stop going down.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This brings to mind one of the points made by Roubinin in a recent post on his site:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255816/the_rising_risks_of_a_global_l-shaped_near_depression_and_stag-deflation" rel="nofollow">http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255816/the_rising_risks_of_a_global_l-shaped_near_depression_and_stag-deflation</a></p>
<p>In the post he mentions the thinking by many of the better economists (altough he does mention that Bernanke holds the view also) that the general problem the world is facing is the imbalances in trade and capital flows. The exporting countries like China and Japan have been saving too much, while we have been consuming too much. All though savings in the exporting countries got funneled back here in the form of loans that are now going bad. Until America savings rates get back to historical averages, we are going to continue to have problems.</p>
<p>Charts have recently been showing that America&#8217;s savings rate has gone up significantly in the past year.<br />
Roubini points out that the charts do not take into account the enormous decline in assets of many households like the subject one. It&#8217;s the flip side of those who told us that we didn&#8217;t need to save because our houses were increasing in value. So, our savings have not really increased as much as we think and real savings rates will not go up until value of houses and stocks stop going down.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt SF</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150405</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt SF</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 21:53:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150405</guid>
		<description>He was duped?  I rarely disagree with the posts from this blog but buying a 250k house at 600k is asinine.    

If the guy had done his homework and checked historical prices, he would have known he was buying into a bubble.  You would think someone about to write a 300k check would know better.  

Just one more example of a guy who watched too much HGTV and swallowed the NAR&#039;s mindless propaganda.  When will people learn that we live in a country that allows people to lie to us to sell us stuff.  

Bravo to the person who sold the home to this guy... he or she is probably a trader!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>He was duped?  I rarely disagree with the posts from this blog but buying a 250k house at 600k is asinine.    </p>
<p>If the guy had done his homework and checked historical prices, he would have known he was buying into a bubble.  You would think someone about to write a 300k check would know better.  </p>
<p>Just one more example of a guy who watched too much HGTV and swallowed the NAR&#8217;s mindless propaganda.  When will people learn that we live in a country that allows people to lie to us to sell us stuff.  </p>
<p>Bravo to the person who sold the home to this guy&#8230; he or she is probably a trader!</p>
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		<title>By: fred55</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150328</link>
		<dc:creator>fred55</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:40:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150328</guid>
		<description>Please don&#039;t accidentally advise people that purchase money mortgages are non-recourse. I believe they are in California for sure and in some other states but that is absolutely not the case in all states, it sure isn&#039;t the case in New York, and there is no guarantee that the lender will not pursue a deficiency action, particularly if its a regional that kept the loan on its books.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Please don&#8217;t accidentally advise people that purchase money mortgages are non-recourse. I believe they are in California for sure and in some other states but that is absolutely not the case in all states, it sure isn&#8217;t the case in New York, and there is no guarantee that the lender will not pursue a deficiency action, particularly if its a regional that kept the loan on its books.</p>
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		<title>By: deanscamaro</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150325</link>
		<dc:creator>deanscamaro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:35:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150325</guid>
		<description>Totally agree, bolddan!  

I have a daughter and son-in-law who for years didn&#039;t worry about paying bills on time or just plain let them go.  Within the last three years, they have tried to straighten out their lives and tried to get things in order.  Their poor credit rating has haunted them wherever they turn.  The latest problem has been the economy collapse, which almost made a pool maintenance business he started to improve their lives, just about disappear.  They are now living in what I would term a &quot;hovel&quot;.  Do you think they wish they had handled their debts better?  YOU BET!  What I worry about is people, in one way or other, walking away from a stupid mortgages (ARM &#039;s or whatever) they couldn&#039;t afford to begin with and being forgiven because they are the poor, mistreated recipients of actions from those mean old financiers.  These guys made a killing in a business where people let themselves be suckered into a corner they headed for like lambs.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Totally agree, bolddan!  </p>
<p>I have a daughter and son-in-law who for years didn&#8217;t worry about paying bills on time or just plain let them go.  Within the last three years, they have tried to straighten out their lives and tried to get things in order.  Their poor credit rating has haunted them wherever they turn.  The latest problem has been the economy collapse, which almost made a pool maintenance business he started to improve their lives, just about disappear.  They are now living in what I would term a &#8220;hovel&#8221;.  Do you think they wish they had handled their debts better?  YOU BET!  What I worry about is people, in one way or other, walking away from a stupid mortgages (ARM &#8216;s or whatever) they couldn&#8217;t afford to begin with and being forgiven because they are the poor, mistreated recipients of actions from those mean old financiers.  These guys made a killing in a business where people let themselves be suckered into a corner they headed for like lambs.</p>
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		<title>By: buermann</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150315</link>
		<dc:creator>buermann</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150315</guid>
		<description>Rather than walking away, he should walk into foreclosure.  With the speciousness of the interest-only negative amortization of the loan origination the chances of anybody still having the paperwork to actually evict him and take legal title of the home are just about nil.  He should be spending part of his mortgage payments on a lawyer and saving the rest for his kids&#039; education.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rather than walking away, he should walk into foreclosure.  With the speciousness of the interest-only negative amortization of the loan origination the chances of anybody still having the paperwork to actually evict him and take legal title of the home are just about nil.  He should be spending part of his mortgage payments on a lawyer and saving the rest for his kids&#8217; education.</p>
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		<title>By: bolddan</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/cnbc-should-this-owner-walkaway/comment-page-1/#comment-150284</link>
		<dc:creator>bolddan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:25:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20775#comment-150284</guid>
		<description>To blame realtors and lenders is silly.  There&#039;s only one place here where blame lies.  That&#039;s like me blaming my teacher because I didn&#039;t study and couldn&#039;t pass the test.  Or buying some piece of high tech equipement right after it comes to the market, and then blaming the retailer six months later when the price drops 25%.  We all need to take responsibility and be accountable, something that&#039;s not cool these days.

Also his credit will be hurt, and not just for a while, but for a long time.  A foreclosure on your credit report is a nasty thing and it will affect everything else he does credit-wise.  Walking away does little for him.  At worst he can do a short sale and his credit won&#039;t be hurt as badly as just simply walking away.

Since he is facing a huge increase in his payments, if it was me, I&#039;d default and then seek a refi with a long term fixed mortgage and stay in the same house.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To blame realtors and lenders is silly.  There&#8217;s only one place here where blame lies.  That&#8217;s like me blaming my teacher because I didn&#8217;t study and couldn&#8217;t pass the test.  Or buying some piece of high tech equipement right after it comes to the market, and then blaming the retailer six months later when the price drops 25%.  We all need to take responsibility and be accountable, something that&#8217;s not cool these days.</p>
<p>Also his credit will be hurt, and not just for a while, but for a long time.  A foreclosure on your credit report is a nasty thing and it will affect everything else he does credit-wise.  Walking away does little for him.  At worst he can do a short sale and his credit won&#8217;t be hurt as badly as just simply walking away.</p>
<p>Since he is facing a huge increase in his payments, if it was me, I&#8217;d default and then seek a refi with a long term fixed mortgage and stay in the same house.</p>
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