Comments on: First 5% Plus Month in 5 Years http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 22:06:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: wunsacon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156502 wunsacon Tue, 24 Mar 2009 07:09:52 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156502 >> Famous last words! just ask Wuns about peak oil at $140 or cinefoz about stocks bottoming at 10,000. How did that all work out?? Fundamentals boys and girls. Not that I'd want to spend 30 minutes to find supporting links on TBP for my past statements. So, you'll have to take my word on it that I was *not* bullish on the price of oil past $110/barrel. I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer by any means. But, I did conclude that the price of oil had become less and less based on fundamentals and more and more based on a surge of money looking for a home safe from dollar devaluation. (At around the same time, I also noticed a TV reality show about roughnecks.) Now, that being said, I did try catching falling knives once the prices came down below $90/barrel. So, I've got a lot to learn. >> Famous last words! just ask Wuns about peak oil at $140 or cinefoz about stocks bottoming at 10,000. How did that all work out?? Fundamentals boys and girls.

Not that I’d want to spend 30 minutes to find supporting links on TBP for my past statements. So, you’ll have to take my word on it that I was *not* bullish on the price of oil past $110/barrel. I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer by any means. But, I did conclude that the price of oil had become less and less based on fundamentals and more and more based on a surge of money looking for a home safe from dollar devaluation. (At around the same time, I also noticed a TV reality show about roughnecks.) Now, that being said, I did try catching falling knives once the prices came down below $90/barrel. So, I’ve got a lot to learn.

]]> By: mark mchugh http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156464 mark mchugh Tue, 24 Mar 2009 01:26:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156464 "The key question is, does this have any correlation to market bottoms?" August 2000 +6.07% April 2001 +7.68% November 2001 +7.52% Um, yeah, you usually run into a few of these before you find a market bottom. “The key question is, does this have any correlation to market bottoms?”

August 2000 +6.07%
April 2001 +7.68%
November 2001 +7.52%

Um, yeah, you usually run into a few of these before you find a market bottom.

]]> By: Grindstone Financial http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156458 Grindstone Financial Tue, 24 Mar 2009 01:03:29 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156458 My favorite part of this new investment plan is that hedge funds are the new white knights. People are throwing tea in the river over some schmuck in CT getting a million $ bonus at AIG? The lowly tech guy or controller for some of these hedge funds blows that much in Vegas on weekend. Enjoy the rally, I'll report back when I hear about any uptick in demand in corporate america (actually demand for everything seems to be finding a new cliff to fall off every week - but let's not get bogged down with fundamentals when the charts and my horoscope say buy, buy, buy!!!) My favorite part of this new investment plan is that hedge funds are the new white knights. People are throwing tea in the river over some schmuck in CT getting a million $ bonus at AIG? The lowly tech guy or controller for some of these hedge funds blows that much in Vegas on weekend.

Enjoy the rally, I’ll report back when I hear about any uptick in demand in corporate america (actually demand for everything seems to be finding a new cliff to fall off every week – but let’s not get bogged down with fundamentals when the charts and my horoscope say buy, buy, buy!!!)

]]> By: MRegan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156456 MRegan Tue, 24 Mar 2009 00:49:40 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156456 Otto- I don't always agree with your ideas and assertions but I guess I don't understand them, because they haven't triggered much antipathy. How do you manage to make so many friends? Otto-

I don’t always agree with your ideas and assertions but I guess I don’t understand them, because they haven’t triggered much antipathy. How do you manage to make so many friends?

]]> By: philipat http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156453 philipat Tue, 24 Mar 2009 00:41:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156453 NOTHING can stop housing prices falling another 20%. Until then, nothing at issue can be values with certainty. And the uncertainty is causing much of the problem. NOTHING can stop real S&P earnings in 2009 falling to around $32. So we are now at P/E 25+ already. In the present global economy, that doesn't make much sense to me. Isn't this just the boys on the Street again? NOTHING can stop housing prices falling another 20%. Until then, nothing at issue can be values with certainty. And the uncertainty is causing much of the problem.
NOTHING can stop real S&P earnings in 2009 falling to around $32. So we are now at P/E 25+ already. In the present global economy, that doesn’t make much sense to me.

Isn’t this just the boys on the Street again?

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156450 DL Tue, 24 Mar 2009 00:28:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156450 paulyarbles @ 7:34 Yeah, I see this as a potential issue when investors are only putting up 7% of the money, and the taxpayers the other 93%. From the investor’s point of view, it’s like buying a call option, except that there’s no expiration. And there’s potential for all sorts of “under the table” deals between the investors and the bankers. paulyarbles @ 7:34

Yeah, I see this as a potential issue when investors are only putting up 7% of the money, and the taxpayers the other 93%.

From the investor’s point of view, it’s like buying a call option, except that there’s no expiration. And there’s potential for all sorts of “under the table” deals between the investors and the bankers.

]]> By: paulyarbles http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156448 paulyarbles Tue, 24 Mar 2009 00:20:14 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156448 Thanks Foghorn. Now what's to prevent SAC from bidding $150mm and buying $20mm in CDS? I mean Citi will sell to the highest bidder, no? Isn't everyone better off? Everyone but the U.S. Treasury. There at least has to be something to prevent an arbitrarily high bid up, right? Thanks Foghorn. Now what’s to prevent SAC from bidding $150mm and buying $20mm in CDS? I mean Citi will sell to the highest bidder, no? Isn’t everyone better off? Everyone but the U.S. Treasury.

There at least has to be something to prevent an arbitrarily high bid up, right?

]]> By: Foghorn Longhorn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156446 Foghorn Longhorn Tue, 24 Mar 2009 00:19:07 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156446 <i>The worst thing you can do to “help” an alcoholic is give them a gift certificate to the package store.</i> Oil=Alcoholic whatever, enough bizzarro world for me today. The worst thing you can do to “help” an alcoholic is give them a gift certificate to the package store.

Oil=Alcoholic
whatever, enough bizzarro world for me today.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156444 Mannwich Tue, 24 Mar 2009 00:13:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156444 @Mike in Nola: Duluth in the early fall is great. Great color up there that time of year and weather's usually pretty nice. Reminds me a little of New England in the fall. My sister-in-law's family used to live up there, so we were regular visitors in recent years, but they've since moved, so we don't go up as much anymore. It's great in the summer too, but you gotta deal with the state bird (skeeters). @Mike in Nola: Duluth in the early fall is great. Great color up there that time of year and weather’s usually pretty nice. Reminds me a little of New England in the fall. My sister-in-law’s family used to live up there, so we were regular visitors in recent years, but they’ve since moved, so we don’t go up as much anymore. It’s great in the summer too, but you gotta deal with the state bird (skeeters).

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/first-5-plus-month-in-5-years/comment-page-3/#comment-156443 Mark E Hoffer Tue, 24 Mar 2009 00:12:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22354#comment-156443 Foghorn Longhorn Says: March 23rd, 2009 at 8:09 pm, above that's All one needs to know..U. Sucker's wallet is wide-open Foghorn Longhorn Says:

March 23rd, 2009 at 8:09 pm, above

that’s All one needs to know..U. Sucker’s wallet is wide-open

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