Comments on: Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard economics professor http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/kenneth-rogoff-harvard-economics-professor/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:28:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: pobaldy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/kenneth-rogoff-harvard-economics-professor/comment-page-1/#comment-154150 pobaldy Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:30:33 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=21809#comment-154150 nom de laert, rogoff's comments in '07 were most unfortunate, but not unlike most economists, bureaucrats, lay persons or the average person that was still borrowing, spending and going along with an inflationary (or overpriced) market to all-time highs. thank god he is not still predicting a recovery either in 2010, or anytime this year, like many still do. he seems to be able to appreciate the economic forces quite nicely presently, and i'm sure his students and colleagues are better for it. i have no problem throwing darts, but only at those that are unresponsive or unreformed, or better at their present analysis. stay constructive. nom de laert, rogoff’s comments in ’07 were most unfortunate, but not unlike most economists, bureaucrats, lay persons or the average person that was still borrowing, spending and going along with an inflationary (or overpriced) market to all-time highs. thank god he is not still predicting a recovery either in 2010, or anytime this year, like many still do. he seems to be able to appreciate the economic forces quite nicely presently, and i’m sure his students and colleagues are better for it. i have no problem throwing darts, but only at those that are unresponsive or unreformed, or better at their present analysis. stay constructive.

]]> By: the economic fractalist http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/kenneth-rogoff-harvard-economics-professor/comment-page-1/#comment-153682 the economic fractalist Sun, 15 Mar 2009 17:55:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=21809#comment-153682 His understanding of the enormity of the generational macroeconomic saturation area, the unethical leverage that has taken the global macroeconomy here and the longer term future and the social-political difficulties and potential citizen unrest is qualitatively correct. This is the quantitative picture..... 4/10/8/1 of 6-7 Weeks - Major Equity Devaluation Immediately Ahead As of 15 March 2009 the Operative ideal Lammert Fractal Progression for the Wilshire is 4/10/8/1 of 6-7 Weeks. The progression and ongoing integration of the macroeconomic universe’s internal factors is defined in its asset valuation saturation curves and is absolutely and perfectly mechanistic and predictable. Over the next 5-6 weeks equities will have a major devolution in value as a 4/10/8/1-2 of 6-7 week Lammert fractal series is completed. This fractal progression can be seen more clearly with the use of the NIKKEI, FTSE, and DAX. This identified sequence has allowed a highly probable solution for the long term asset valuation fractal evolution. The two cardinal mathematical laws defining the quantum progression of the macroeonomy’s asset valuations over time along the continuous valuation saturation curve that defines the self balancing macroeconomic system and constitutes the empirically and evidence based science of nonstochastic saturation economics are x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y. The first series x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x is a four phase fractal progression with the first three fractal quantum units representing asset valuation growth progression and the last 1.5-1.6x fractal quantum representing asset valuation decay.The above cited 4/10/8/1 of 6-7 week fractal is a four phase fractal proportionalty of this law. The recent 5 day valuation rise of the Wilshire conforms to a 1/2/2 day fractal saturation growth series or a 9/19/16 hour unit saturation fractal growth series constituting the first three quantum units of the four phase series. y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y is a three phase decay fractal with serially lower nodal asset valuation lows defining fractal decay. The utility of this scientific model is its predictability of asset valuation saturation areas. Intervention to moderate can then occur. The saturation time frames identify the complex macroeconomic system’s limits and boundaries in terms of maximum sustainable total debt load, maximum asset overproduction and oversupply, and maximum job numbers that produce the base wages to support debt load and ongoing demand for the overvalued assets. Those parties controlling monetary policy and interest rates, those parties regulating loan parameters, and those parties creating tax advantages for certain assets can now anticipate these asset valuation saturation area highs and modulate excess debt and asset overvaluation by raising interest rates, increasing the restrictive parameters on lending, and providing tax advantages for savings to prevent asset speculation. Using the model of saturation macroeconomics and anticipating the macroeconomy’s asset value saturation areas, proactive action can be taken: the asset valuation saturation highs will then be lower; speculation and leverage will be thwarted; debt load at the saturation area will be lower; and the follow on absolute asset valuation lows and sharp rises in unemployment via the inevitable asset valuation quantum decay and rising relative debt burden will be moderated. Gold, after a final 1-2 week growth period ahead, will devaluate sharply over the subsequent 7 to 8 weeks. Gold and gold equities are also following a 4+/11/7 of 8-9/ 7-8 weekly fractal progression series. As non-money asset valuations collapse, remaining outstanding debt grows relatively larger in size with ever greater difficulty in ability to adequately service. After gold’s devolution there will be little doubt that this collapse is a profound deflationary collapse where money owed on overvalued assets purchased near the leveraged valuation saturation highs cannot be repaid by declining after tax wages and the declining absolute number of jobs. From the Wilshire’s March 03 lows and using nodal lows: the weekly fractal decay progression is 75/189/189 weeks. The second fractal of 189 is slightly more than 2.5x of the 75 week base, but the 75 week base fractal contains a time period of proportionally fewer trading holidays. This y/2.5y/2.5y decay sequence may be an interpolated second fractal of yet a larger 17/36/36 quarter year fractal decay series commencing in October of 1998.This is a millennium size decay fractal. His understanding of the enormity of the generational macroeconomic saturation area, the unethical leverage that has taken the global macroeconomy here and the longer term future and the social-political difficulties and potential citizen unrest is qualitatively correct. This is the quantitative picture…..

4/10/8/1 of 6-7 Weeks – Major Equity Devaluation Immediately Ahead

As of 15 March 2009 the Operative ideal Lammert Fractal Progression for the Wilshire is 4/10/8/1 of 6-7 Weeks.

The progression and ongoing integration of the macroeconomic universe’s internal factors is defined in its asset valuation saturation curves and is absolutely and perfectly mechanistic and predictable.

Over the next 5-6 weeks equities will have a major devolution in value as a 4/10/8/1-2 of 6-7 week Lammert fractal series is completed. This fractal progression can be seen more clearly with the use of the NIKKEI, FTSE, and DAX. This identified sequence has allowed a highly probable solution for the long term asset valuation fractal evolution.

The two cardinal mathematical laws defining the quantum progression of the macroeonomy’s asset valuations over time along the continuous valuation saturation curve that defines the self balancing macroeconomic system and constitutes the empirically and evidence based science of nonstochastic saturation economics are x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y. The first series x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x is a four phase fractal progression with the first three fractal quantum units representing asset valuation growth progression and the last 1.5-1.6x fractal quantum representing asset valuation decay.The above cited 4/10/8/1 of 6-7 week fractal is a four phase fractal proportionalty of this law. The recent 5 day valuation rise of the Wilshire conforms to a 1/2/2 day fractal saturation growth series or a 9/19/16 hour unit saturation fractal growth series constituting the first three quantum units of the four phase series. y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y is a three phase decay fractal with serially lower nodal asset valuation lows defining fractal decay.

The utility of this scientific model is its predictability of asset valuation saturation areas. Intervention to moderate can then occur. The saturation time frames identify the complex macroeconomic system’s limits and boundaries in terms of maximum sustainable total debt load, maximum asset overproduction and oversupply, and maximum job numbers that produce the base wages to support debt load and ongoing demand for the overvalued assets. Those parties controlling monetary policy and interest rates, those parties regulating loan parameters, and those parties creating tax advantages for certain assets can now anticipate these asset valuation saturation area highs and modulate excess debt and asset overvaluation by raising interest rates, increasing the restrictive parameters on lending, and providing tax advantages for savings to prevent asset speculation. Using the model of saturation macroeconomics and anticipating the macroeconomy’s asset value saturation areas, proactive action can be taken: the asset valuation saturation highs will then be lower; speculation and leverage will be thwarted; debt load at the saturation area will be lower; and the follow on absolute asset valuation lows and sharp rises in unemployment via the inevitable asset valuation quantum decay and rising relative debt burden will be moderated.

Gold, after a final 1-2 week growth period ahead, will devaluate sharply over the subsequent 7 to 8 weeks. Gold and gold equities are also following a 4+/11/7 of 8-9/ 7-8 weekly fractal progression series.

As non-money asset valuations collapse, remaining outstanding debt grows relatively larger in size with ever greater difficulty in ability to adequately service. After gold’s devolution there will be little doubt that this collapse is a profound deflationary collapse where money owed on overvalued assets purchased near the leveraged valuation saturation highs cannot be repaid by declining after tax wages and the declining absolute number of jobs.

From the Wilshire’s March 03 lows and using nodal lows: the weekly fractal decay progression is 75/189/189 weeks. The second fractal of 189 is slightly more than 2.5x of the 75 week base, but the 75 week base fractal contains a time period of proportionally fewer trading holidays. This y/2.5y/2.5y decay sequence may be an interpolated second fractal of yet a larger 17/36/36 quarter year fractal decay series commencing in October of 1998.This is a millennium size decay fractal.

]]> By: laertnom http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/kenneth-rogoff-harvard-economics-professor/comment-page-1/#comment-153675 laertnom Sun, 15 Mar 2009 16:53:44 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=21809#comment-153675 Ken Rogoff is so clued out, he is no expert. Havard economics professor? What a joke here is the proof to back up my claim: http://www.onpointradio.org/shows/2007/11/wheres-the-economy-headed/ The OTHER Guy Peter Schiff was more clued in, Ken Rogoff is so clued out, he is no expert. Havard economics professor? What a joke
here is the proof to back up my claim:

http://www.onpointradio.org/shows/2007/11/wheres-the-economy-headed/

The OTHER Guy Peter Schiff was more clued in,

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