Comments on: Look Out Below http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 13:51:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: bman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158239 bman Mon, 30 Mar 2009 18:32:21 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158239 I don't know Mannwich, you say down a bit, I think they're up, but noone says they are definately down. I'm regularly paying 4-5 bucks for a gallon of milk 3-4 bucks for a loaf of bread. Meat prices also seem high to me, perhaps I'm just older and things just seem more expensive, but I'd like to see some definitive graph that shows deflation on more than one front. Clothes are one of those things that if your budget is tight you can hold off for a few months so it is expected that clothes retailers would have sales to bring in customers, but on things that people buy because they must have them to live, like food, I don't see any deflation. I don’t know Mannwich, you say down a bit, I think they’re up, but noone says they are definately down.
I’m regularly paying 4-5 bucks for a gallon of milk 3-4 bucks for a loaf of bread. Meat prices also seem high to me, perhaps I’m just older and things just seem more expensive, but I’d like to see some definitive graph that shows deflation on more than one front. Clothes are one of those things that if your budget is tight you can hold off for a few months so it is expected that clothes retailers would have sales to bring in customers, but on things that people buy because they must have them to live, like food, I don’t see any deflation.

]]> By: aitrader http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158171 aitrader Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:33:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158171 Luvin' my DUG EFT - up nearly 8% today alone. The fundamentals behind the oil price say we should see a drop toward $35 over the next couple of weeks. If the dollar holds that is. My bet is that it will and the G20 meet will be much ado and nothing done. Luvin’ my DUG EFT – up nearly 8% today alone.

The fundamentals behind the oil price say we should see a drop toward $35 over the next couple of weeks. If the dollar holds that is. My bet is that it will and the G20 meet will be much ado and nothing done.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158167 Mannwich Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:18:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158167 @bman: I don't know where you live, but I see food prices down a bit, not up, at least overall. Clothes prices (and other retail items) are way down, as are hotels, airlines. I do think inflation's coming but not yet. @bman: I don’t know where you live, but I see food prices down a bit, not up, at least overall. Clothes prices (and other retail items) are way down, as are hotels, airlines. I do think inflation’s coming but not yet.

]]> By: bman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158160 bman Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:09:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158160 Andy Tabbo Says: "as the market is looking for assurances that “deflation” is behind us, at least temporarily." Andy, I think that is still in the future, except for house prices I have seen no deflation, and since it is commonly agreed that house prices were over inflated, I think we can safely ignore house prices as far as inflation vs. deflation is concerned. So what do we have left? food: up, Water: up, Gas: up, Tools and equipment: up, Clothing: maybe down, I would argue that we are still in an inflationary spiral, and although there may be deflation somewhere out there, it has not hit at the consumer level. Andy Tabbo Says: “as the market is looking for assurances that “deflation” is behind us, at least temporarily.”

Andy, I think that is still in the future, except for house prices I have seen no deflation, and since it is commonly agreed that house prices were over inflated, I think we can safely ignore house prices as far as inflation vs. deflation is concerned. So what do we have left? food: up, Water: up, Gas: up, Tools and equipment: up, Clothing: maybe down, I would argue that we are still in an inflationary spiral, and although there may be deflation somewhere out there, it has not hit at the consumer level.

]]> By: dead hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158125 dead hobo Mon, 30 Mar 2009 13:09:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158125 I feel pretty smug this morning. Even though those bastard shorts spooked me last week, I still would have dumped by or before Friday. Thanks for the incentive, though. I'm ready and raring to go for the next rally in a couple of months. For those who dislike Cramer, let me remind you of some of his best advice "Bears make money, Bulls make money, Pigs get slaughtered". See you at the bottom. Do you doubt me? If so, please enumerate 5 reasons why the markets will go up smartly in the next few days. Reasons that include deities, aliens, superstitious invocations, dream like states, hedge fund circle jerks, pump and dump schemes, and anything else MAY be included. I feel pretty smug this morning. Even though those bastard shorts spooked me last week, I still would have dumped by or before Friday. Thanks for the incentive, though. I’m ready and raring to go for the next rally in a couple of months.

For those who dislike Cramer, let me remind you of some of his best advice “Bears make money, Bulls make money, Pigs get slaughtered”. See you at the bottom. Do you doubt me? If so, please enumerate 5 reasons why the markets will go up smartly in the next few days. Reasons that include deities, aliens, superstitious invocations, dream like states, hedge fund circle jerks, pump and dump schemes, and anything else MAY be included.

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158120 Mark E Hoffer Mon, 30 Mar 2009 12:54:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158120 AT, I hear ya, though, to be clear, I wasn't saying that you 'birthed' it, just that you were laying it out..) Mike, the Euro has had a monster move from the mid-1.20s to the mid 1.30s see: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_EC.Y$$ looks like it has some d-side left in it.. AT,

I hear ya, though, to be clear, I wasn’t saying that you ‘birthed’ it, just that you were laying it out..)

Mike,

the Euro has had a monster move from the mid-1.20s to the mid 1.30s
see: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_EC.Y$$

looks like it has some d-side left in it..

]]> By: Mike in Nola http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158117 Mike in Nola Mon, 30 Mar 2009 12:46:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158117 All caused by tough talk on GM. I suppose to shake up the bondholders. Once the bailout comes, big rally. I see the Euro is way down despite our government's stupidity. Someone needs dollars somewhere. All caused by tough talk on GM. I suppose to shake up the bondholders. Once the bailout comes, big rally.

I see the Euro is way down despite our government’s stupidity. Someone needs dollars somewhere.

]]> By: Andy Tabbo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158116 Andy Tabbo Mon, 30 Mar 2009 12:39:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158116 hoffer. I can't take credit for observing the relationship between the DX and the SP500...even Bob Pisani was on to that one several weeks ago. It is my conviction, though, that the SP500 will NOT go up unless the DX is falling, as the market is looking for assurances that "deflation" is behind us, at least temporarily. Last Thursday I dropped a note about the SP500 looking a little tired and exhausted, in need of a pullback. I think this could be the beginning of a decent few days of corrective behavior, which is important in order to sustain larger moves higher. It would be a classic move to see a retrace back to 750/730 zone. We may see some support at 770 first, but a classic correction should get us back to 750/730. I still think this first leg higher from 666 was the initial wave of a larger bear market correction and that we'll see higher levels in the SP500 coupled with lower levels in the DX. DX should have some good resistance into 86.70/87.20. I would look to sell those levels on the DX, becoming very nervous on any action above 88.30. hoffer. I can’t take credit for observing the relationship between the DX and the SP500…even Bob Pisani was on to that one several weeks ago. It is my conviction, though, that the SP500 will NOT go up unless the DX is falling, as the market is looking for assurances that “deflation” is behind us, at least temporarily.

Last Thursday I dropped a note about the SP500 looking a little tired and exhausted, in need of a pullback. I think this could be the beginning of a decent few days of corrective behavior, which is important in order to sustain larger moves higher. It would be a classic move to see a retrace back to 750/730 zone. We may see some support at 770 first, but a classic correction should get us back to 750/730. I still think this first leg higher from 666 was the initial wave of a larger bear market correction and that we’ll see higher levels in the SP500 coupled with lower levels in the DX. DX should have some good resistance into 86.70/87.20. I would look to sell those levels on the DX, becoming very nervous on any action above 88.30.

]]> By: rktbrkr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158109 rktbrkr Mon, 30 Mar 2009 11:59:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158109 The CNBC cheerleaders were crowing about the best March ever last week - they couldn't wait. This is clearly a reaction to the Dylan news. The CNBC cheerleaders were crowing about the best March ever last week – they couldn’t wait. This is clearly a reaction to the Dylan news.

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/look-out-below-5/comment-page-1/#comment-158104 Mark E Hoffer Mon, 30 Mar 2009 11:44:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=22839#comment-158104 w/ this: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&t=f looks like the inverse relationship, that AT was laying out, between the SPX:DX, is on-track.. The Paperback has been catching a bid.. ~~ "If our government really cared about the people it supposedly serves, it would shut this atrocity down, put the financial system through bankruptcy reorganization, and turn its attention to rebuilding and upgrading the real economy. What we need is honesty, in our government and in ourselves. We need to admit we’ve been conned, and correct the weaknesses that made us vulnerable. First tell the truth, and then go fix the problem. No more lies, no more scams.” rktbrkr, nice link, always helpful to read broadly.. w/ this: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&t=f

looks like the inverse relationship, that AT was laying out, between the SPX:DX, is on-track..

The Paperback has been catching a bid..
~~

“If our government really cared about the people it supposedly serves, it would shut this atrocity down, put the financial system through bankruptcy reorganization, and turn its attention to rebuilding and upgrading the real economy. What we need is honesty, in our government and in ourselves. We need to admit we’ve been conned, and correct the weaknesses that made us vulnerable. First tell the truth, and then go fix the problem. No more lies, no more scams.”
rktbrkr,

nice link, always helpful to read broadly..

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