Suspension of mark-to-market accounting won’t be able to help with bad debt expense and reserves

http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13271781

And how stupid 2/3 of republicans are.

I did do a quick calc, every 1% drop in GDP results in an increase of 4% on the debt to GDP, that is keeping debt levels even. Debt is growing thanks to the Govt, and there are at least 2-3 more negative GDP quarters ahead. Steves call for 130% to GDP is going to take awhile to reach. Not happening this year. I did go ahead and pay for an economagic to get numbers. Saves time. I think tracking debt and some other macro stats will become factors in all investing decisions.

The Market is the Market. I have several positions sitting at their 50 SMA, INTC blew through it’s today, but it’s done that 3 times since december and always comes back, so it is discounted. It’s 50/50, I wouldn’t mind being called out on my positions and be left with cash.

That’s true about grantham but he’s also prepared for the S&P to go as low as 450. That’s a long way down from here. Most people aren’t going to have that sort of game plan.

@ Cy Hastings

No way. You pay tax on the distribution @ ordinary income PLUS the penalty, unless these peeps make no $$ they didn’t have anything, not even the 10% penalty, covered in this rally, in the 401k especially, crap mutual funds didn’t just do better or probably even as well as the market, maybe it could be the case if they work at a bank and bought all the company stock they could a few days ago, but that’s unlikely. They would be better of seeing if the company allows no-penalty early distribution and should roll it to an IRA if so, and there they could buy gold. All you have to do is ask for your summary plan description to see if you have that option, a lot more companies allow it than you would think, otherwise, that’s a dumb idea.

Further, what a sell signal on gold this would be if lots of people did it.

God, that chart is scary.

I had not heard about that double counting someone mentioned above on mortgages.

To all,

What are people thinking about the Option ARM and ALT-A resets coming in 2010 and 2011. I find it curious that C and BAC think they need no new capital considering that is coming up. My understanding is that the total size of Option ARM loans is 750 billion, so you can do some simple math and see how the market caps of WFC, BAC, C and JPM couldn’t handle more big losses and they of course will need more capital.

How much of this is priced in? Have many of these pools already been dropped in credit rating?

Last, SRS got absolutely killed the last few days, I’m going to look for a long position there.

Last last, has anyone looked at the options you can buy the XXX ultra’s, that’s where the real action has been the last three days.

Point taken.

Please pardon the hyperbole. All that relentless financial media pumping, and grumpy geezer permabears turning bullish, and CEOs of insolvent pseudo-nationalized banks boasting of profits and a few consecutive upticks have made me flat out giddy!

“The next major milestone for the bulls is the so-big-you-can-drive-a-trunk-through-it gap at 821.25 set on 02/13.”

In the context of the daily candlesticks, I’m not sure I would say you could drive a truck through it….maybe a bicycle. I might suggest that the previous days action on 2/12 actually occupied that gap. Gaps in charts are more notable when no immediate price action occupied it. For instance, the gap you cited around 734 was definitely a gap that needed to be filled as it set a fresh low on a gap. I don’t think you can say the same about the gap on 2/13.

Just something to consider….

He’s just a clown on the TV. But that’s what your supposed to do in order to get advertising dollars and ratings. Sad.

“Finally, be aware
that the market does not turn when it sees light at the
end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but just a
subtle shade less black than the day before.”

Grantham is hardly a permabull, in fact until recently he had been consistently labeled a “permabear”.