Comments on: Non Farm Payroll Day (Feb 09) http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Thu, 18 Mar 2010 20:20:23 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Terry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151415 Terry Sat, 07 Mar 2009 14:54:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151415 Your list of initial and revised statements of layoffs above highlights what I consider to be a major methodological problem with BLS numbers: By comparing the current initial figure with last month's revised figure, BLS consistently UNDERSTATES the monthly change in layoffs. It is an apples to oranges comparison. The revisions consistently INCREASE the previous month's count of lay offs, thus making the lay off number and increase smaller than it is. Having counted these lay offs monthly for decades, BLS should be able to develop a reasonable statistical estimation process for making the appropriate adjustment in its initial data release. The problem is the resulting numbers would be politically unpalatable. FWIW--My guess is that next month's revised data for February will show lay offs topped 700,000 people. Your list of initial and revised statements of layoffs above highlights what I consider to be a major methodological problem with BLS numbers: By comparing the current initial figure with last month’s revised figure, BLS consistently UNDERSTATES the monthly change in layoffs. It is an apples to oranges comparison. The revisions consistently INCREASE the previous month’s count of lay offs, thus making the lay off number and increase smaller than it is.

Having counted these lay offs monthly for decades, BLS should be able to develop a reasonable statistical estimation process for making the appropriate adjustment in its initial data release. The problem is the resulting numbers would be politically unpalatable.

FWIW–My guess is that next month’s revised data for February will show lay offs topped 700,000 people.

]]> By: davossherman@gmail.com http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151078 davossherman@gmail.com Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:22:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151078 Barry Writes: "I am constantly perplexed when each and every horrific data point is greeted as a big negative surprise by people who I can only describe as clueless cave dwellers. " Me too. Wouldn't it be great to see their faces if you showed them ShadowStats figures (18%) or explained to them that the number of unemployed, discouraged and workers who are under employed figure is north of 20,000,000? FSN had some good articles on this, but they are down. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0303.html (ShadowStats unemployment chart) http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/cooke/2009/0122.html (north of 20 million article) Take care Barry Writes:

“I am constantly perplexed when each and every horrific data point is greeted as a big negative surprise by people who I can only describe as clueless cave dwellers. ”

Me too. Wouldn’t it be great to see their faces if you showed them ShadowStats figures (18%) or explained to them that the number of unemployed, discouraged and workers who are under employed figure is north of 20,000,000?

FSN had some good articles on this, but they are down.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0303.html (ShadowStats unemployment chart)

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/cooke/2009/0122.html (north of 20 million article)

Take care

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151073 Mark E Hoffer Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:18:21 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151073 Imagine if we 'revised' our checkbooks the same way the BLS, et al. revised their #'s.. funny thing is, most peep would, readily, call that "Fraud", while many still spin excuses for our vaunted Gov't, and its #'s.. Equality under the Law was a good idea.. Imagine if we ‘revised’ our checkbooks the same way the BLS, et al. revised their #’s..

funny thing is, most peep would, readily, call that “Fraud”, while many still spin excuses for our vaunted Gov’t, and its #’s..

Equality under the Law was a good idea..

]]> By: rktbrkr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151063 rktbrkr Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:51:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151063 Could we have a 1M job loss month? If this month is truly 850K after two waves of revisions, it would require a 20% increase. I feel we're close to the top now. Could we have a 1M job loss month? If this month is truly 850K after two waves of revisions, it would require a 20% increase. I feel we’re close to the top now.

]]> By: rktbrkr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151060 rktbrkr Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:49:41 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151060 Amen, these subsequent revisions always produce numbers 30-40% higher, read 650K jobs and translate that to 850K when the dust settles in May Amen, these subsequent revisions always produce numbers 30-40% higher, read 650K jobs and translate that to 850K when the dust settles in May

]]> By: Grindstone Financial http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151055 Grindstone Financial Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:43:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151055 B/D added 134K jobs? Leisure and Hospitality +35k? Business and professional svcs +36k? B/D added 134K jobs? Leisure and Hospitality +35k? Business and professional svcs +36k?

]]> By: Stuart http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151054 Stuart Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:41:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151054 yup, look at those revisions. You know it's going to be revised even higher next month. Revise an earlier month even higher, so you can report under it. What a racket. Pure Banana Republic stuff, toxic to credibility. yup, look at those revisions. You know it’s going to be revised even higher next month. Revise an earlier month even higher, so you can report under it. What a racket. Pure Banana Republic stuff, toxic to credibility.

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151047 Mark E Hoffer Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:35:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151047 krice2001 makes a good point w/: "Recall that many people have seen so much cheerleading on CNBC and other outlets (perhaps less more recently) that they have been led to believe that things are just in a rut waiting to turn around. " "Anyway, with intentional mixed messages (and bottom calls) in some cases purposely designed to keep investors invested, it’s no wonder than many are confused, surprised and hurt when the market goes down, yet again." these, recent, CNBC koffee klatches seem like Parodies..'false contrition' is the descriptive that keeps back to mind... I think I'm suffering, hopefully temporary, cognitive impairment, just from viewing it.. LSS: may CNBC go quietly into that good night, and soon.. krice2001 makes a good point w/:
“Recall that many people have seen so much cheerleading on CNBC and other outlets (perhaps less more recently) that they have been led to believe that things are just in a rut waiting to turn around. ”

“Anyway, with intentional mixed messages (and bottom calls) in some cases purposely designed to keep investors invested, it’s no wonder than many are confused, surprised and hurt when the market goes down, yet again.”

these, recent, CNBC koffee klatches seem like Parodies..’false contrition’ is the descriptive that keeps back to mind…

I think I’m suffering, hopefully temporary, cognitive impairment, just from viewing it..

LSS: may CNBC go quietly into that good night, and soon..

]]> By: ben22 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151046 ben22 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:30:47 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151046 well down 651, and there's those revisions. well down 651, and there’s those revisions.

]]> By: Peter Boockvar http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/non-farm-payroll-day/comment-page-1/#comment-151044 Peter Boockvar Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:13:48 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20980#comment-151044 Feb Payrolls are expected to decline by 650k, the biggest since 1949 but adjusted for population growth the direct comparison is useless. Either way, like a boxer knowing he's about to get a stiff upper cut, the market is anticipating an ugly number as evidenced by the 7% drop just this week in the S&P's. The unemployment rate is expected to rise .3% to 7.9%, the highest since 1984. The augmented unemployment rate, which includes 'job wanters' (those that aren't actively looking but would take a job if offered), should move above 11% from 10.8%. Feb Payrolls are expected to decline by 650k, the biggest since 1949 but adjusted for population growth the direct comparison is useless. Either way, like a boxer knowing he’s about to get a stiff upper cut, the market is anticipating an ugly number as evidenced by the 7% drop just this week in the S&P’s. The unemployment rate is expected to rise .3% to 7.9%, the highest since 1984. The augmented unemployment rate, which includes ‘job wanters’ (those that aren’t actively looking but would take a job if offered), should move above 11% from 10.8%.

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