David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in Organizational Dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a Masters in Philosophy from the University of Pennsylvania. Mr. Kotok’s articles and financial market commentary have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He is a frequent contributor to CNBC programs. Mr. Kotok is also a member of the National Business Economics Issues Council (NBEIC), the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics (PCBE), and the Philadelphia Financial Economists Group (PFEG).
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A Lynch Mob!
March 21, 2009
“Let’s go hang ‘em.”
American history is replete with examples of lynch mobs taking control of a situation and inflicting injustice. In the end most lynch mobs have dealt harmful blows to society. Congressional action to punish AIG employees over the bonus issue is already seeding that outcome.
Members of the US House of Representatives who voted for this bill said they were reacting to the anger of their constituents. In failing to show leadership they have just undermined the entire structure designed to repair the financial system.
Specifically the House did the following:
1. They licensed the abrogation of contracts. Their message is simply that it makes no difference what rules we put into effect now; we can and will change them so you cannot depend on them. Global businesses take heed: Your previous judgment about the sanctity of US law has been rendered faulty by our political leadership.
2. They passed retroactive taxation. Their message is that, whatever you plan with regard to the federal tax code, do not assume consistency and do not build any reliability about your government into your decision making. We, in Congress, can reverse our laws and confiscate your results.
3. They made the tax punitive. A 90% tax on something is like taking all of it. The chairman (Rangel) of the House taxation committee actually admitted that by taxing the 90% he was leaving the remainder for the states. In other words, states are now encouraged to engage in the same form of behavior.
Sure citizens are outraged over the $165 million in bonus payments to AIG staff. But they should direct their outrage at the Congress and not threaten the employees or their families with personal injury. The Congress authorized these payments; Dodd, Geithner, and Obama Administration personnel admitted that. Remember, the law passed without giving anyone the chance to testify in public hearings and without allowing comment on the draft legislation. When the law originally went through the Congress, the House leadership suppressed amendments. This Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi-led House is especially guilty of ignoring the rule of law. They are now guilty of encouraging the rule of lynch mob.
The result of this House action is already damaging. The federal regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has shown the courage to ask that this law not be advanced in the Senate. We expect to hear more from those federal personalities who have the strength to speak up and oppose this House-approved proposal.
But depending on the Senate to soften the law or depending on the US Supreme Court to overturn it is a dangerous strategy. Some Congressmen admitted privately that they voted in favor because of constituent pressure, even though they were really opposed to the concept. They voted “yes” because they were relying on the Senate or the courts to say “no.”
Some damage is already done. Firms that were gearing up to participate in the federal program to be announced this coming week are considering withdrawal. They fear that any action which puts them into the federal assistance plan will subject them to the chance of retroactive punishment and taxation. The House has undermined the so-called public-private partnership designed to help restore financing of consumer items like automobiles and credit cards. We expect that the participation in the program to be announced this coming week will be tepid at best.
At Cumberland, we are advising institutional clients to take great care when engaging in any form of activity with the federal government. Simply put: a lynch mob can turn on you in a second and cannot be trusted. The risk is now very high.
Other firms that are already acting with TARP monies, or other federal monies for that matter, are seeking ways to deleverage and exit. In the entrepreneurial and risk-taking business and financial community the universal response to this act by Congress is outrage and distrust and disgust.
So far President Obama is silent on this lynch-mob approach. He has yet to declare himself against it.
Obama needs to be reminded of a parallel in history. A century ago a man named Leo Frank was lynched in Georgia for a murder he did not commit. Local politicians supported the lynch mob; those courageous politicians that opposed it were voted down. Frank was an innocent victim. His subsequent posthumous pardon did not undo the harm.
A century later a man named Barney Frank brags about the earmarks he obtained for his Congressional district (see his website). This modern Frank foments the modern-day version of a lynch mob. The House of Representatives and the Financial Services Committee under the leadership of Barney Frank have made the first day of spring, 2009 a sad day for America. They suppressed the rule of law; they chose the rule of the lynch mob; they are now going to have to live with that result.
When the citizens of America realize what the House has done, they may redirect the lynch mob against the Congress. That is coming next. As Yogi Berra said: “This ain’t over till it’s over.”
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We fly to Europe in a few hours and will chair the Global Interdependence Center delegation at the Paris conference next week (see www.interdependence.org ). Meetings will include central bankers, global investors, and businessmen. Our private roundtable will now also address this House action and what it means for US policy and American markets. Current scheduling from Paris includes CNBC on Monday at 10 AM New York time and again on CNBC on Tuesday morning at 5 AM New York time.
David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, email: david.kotok@cumber.com
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