Comments on: President’s First 50 Days & Market Changes

By: d4winds

d4winds — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 07:45:33 +0000

A fan of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis would have to conclude tht the graph is complete jibberish: as Samuelson famously stated, “properly anticipated events fluctuate randomly.”

Blaming/crediting Obama or any other president for a post-inauguration DOW fall/rise or for a pre-inaugural, post-election rise/fall is to assume that stock market participants do not read the newspapers in the midst of an election. If one desires to blame/credit Obama for DOW performance, that should be measured by DOW performance in the run-up to the election, when it was becoming clear that he would win. DOW performance vs. Intrade odds for his winning in that time period might be interesting. Certainly his policies in office are no surprise to anyone.

By: skardin96

skardin96 — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 00:31:18 +0000

How charts and graphs do we need to link Obama and the current economic mess? Perhaps if someone take the time comparing stock market and moon phases? or wall street performances in leap years? So many countless other possibilities…of them all, it has to be wall street and U.S Presidents.

Sorry, but this is just another meaningless chart.

By: ancientone

ancientone — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:36:26 +0000

All this chart shows is that Obama is the first president to take office in the middle of a historic economic meltdown….the political cartoon that described it best came out a couple of months ago in which a smiling Bush is at the wheel of the “Thelma and Louise ” convertable plunging straight down after having been driven off the cliff saying to a terrified Obama riding shotgun, “I bet you can’t wait to take the wheel”!

By: The Curmudgeon

The Curmudgeon — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:32:51 +0000

“If people are focusing on their own economic lives, then the economy will take care of itself. Self-reliance, not rent-seeking, is what made America great.”

Which is why the government should pay my mortgage and Citi, AIG, et.al, creditors w/ your taxes. Focusing on my own economic life is so banal, when the government is ever willing to encourage me to direct my focus elsewhere.

What’s in it for me? Will it cost less to take someone else’s wealth than to create my own? These are the abiding principles of America’s “greatness”. That and having more nukes than anyone else.

By: Marc1

Marc1 — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:32:49 +0000

This chart assumes that it is the President’s job to make the Dow go up. Not the economy in general, but the stock market. Not the stock market in general, but the itty-bitty Dow. 30 stocks.

I’ve often said that the fundamental problem with our economy is that we manage for just two numbers: GDP and the Dow. Neither are good measures of economic health.

Barry, this doesn’t seem in keeping with your usual intelligent analysis. What’s up?

By: Jrod

Jrod — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:28:17 +0000

The economy is much bigger than any one man–that much we can agree on. The feedback loop generated by the fiscal policy of the Obama administration is long and it will be months or years before anybody can make an educated deduction regarding its effectiveness. However, the stock market is another story altogether. The stock market is forward looking. As such, each President absolutely owns the stock market performance from the day he is elected.

By: DeDude

DeDude — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:18:01 +0000

The actual effects of the new presidents policies, takes at least a year to even begin to come into play. The effects of brain-dead idiots reacting to the rumors of what horror or bliss the newly elected president and his (rumored or stated) policies may do to the country, is almost instantaneous. But the stock market is not just reacting to the president (and his policies), it is reacting to many other factors that are completely outside of his influence. To measure the actual effect of a president you would have to define and “neutralize” all of those other effects in a multivariate model of the stock market – good luck with that. Now that is not going to prevent some monkey from screeming that he know the cause / effects relations of market gyrations. If he actually puts his money where his mouth is, I will say good luck and thank you.

By: Hal

Hal — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:15:38 +0000

You need to think about the Obama administration as “turn around specialists” .

They have been handed a job and regardless of how bad it was when they took over, it is theirs to fix.

Now–if your company was in trouble and seeking outside help–a new management team. Would you hire this team?

Kind of like putting Immelt and Nardelli in charge of things ((oops-one is a member of the turn around team and the other not turning around Chrysler)

By: Paul Jones

Paul Jones — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:15:17 +0000

I’m not that happy with Obama, but his “mid term report card” isn’t due for 20 months; and his final for another 3 & 3/4 years.

Blaming him for what is happening in the economy says little about him, and a lot about his detractors.

If people are focusing on their own economic lives, then the economy will take care of itself. Self-reliance, not rent-seeking, is what made America great.

By: How the Common Man Sees It

How the Common Man Sees It — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 15:01:28 +0000

you may as well have gone out and whacked a hornet’s nest with a stick Barry

The responses were pretty predictable.

If you’re looking for fun why not drop an evolution or global warming post into the blog. Those are usually good for a few hundred to and fro’s. Everybody is a little cranky around here these days. Maybe they need a brawl to reduce some stress