Have you ever tried, or have you seen others try to apply wave theory to earnings or an earnings cycle? I had this thought that there might be waves that could be applied to that as well as the corresponding p/e ratio’s. I know basically nothing about EW though so I could be wrong.

Gold getting closer to 900.

Yes, I keep thinking in the back of my mind that FXI would see 17 again so I have a buy order set up in increments on the way to that, if I don’t get them I’ll probably end up on that 3 months late side. Can’t wait to see what GE does the rest of the week. Have enjoyed your comments on it lately.

John R.

Yeah, a lot of people were on here talking about how it’s real dangerous to base anything on ma’s just a month or two ago, or basing any investments only on ma’s. I didn’t look at it but some ta people use a longer monthly moving average. I know that Richard Suttmeir (sp?) was using it as an indication of a multi-year bear market, I think he was using the 120 month moving average.

OH, BUT look how this compares to the 200 DMA! Look at the St. Dev. from the 200 MA!

Yes, and if you compared it to the 300 DMA, your “analysis” would even more dramatically call for a reversal!

If you go by the 5o DMA, you have a case for a reversal at about 640 to 600 on the $SPX, depending upon velocity.

@jbrusco: correct. earnings.

@cvd: correct. But you’ve been so correctly prolific it’s hard for me to backtrack. I was off-site for a while.

Summers statement: That makes so much sense, it’s really scaring me. O is gaming the market?????? But he may have run out of bullets. Everyone seems to be catching onto the afternoon boosts.

@Ben22: Inflating. Agree.

Things are going too fast for me. And the insights are making

me blind.

@AT: event driven pessimism. Cool. I like that. Kind of like reality-based eh?

tread lightly on that FXI….I’ve read “academic” literature on bottoms that suggests it’s better to be 3 months LATE to the “bottom” than 3 months early….I actually try to be there at the bottom….just passing on what the statisticians might suggest…..

it looks like at these levels it tends to snap back to +20-25%.

This gives me a lot of confidence in his financial acumen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aouPA5ltirhk&refer=exclusive

And it looks like he trumps Volcker based on the stupidity still coming out of the administration with the lead story being yet another version of the good bank – bad bank scheme. That scheme is like a zombie itself: won’t die.

I’m starting to think it’s more likely that instead of the S&P collapsing to the 500 level or something based on a single digit p/e projection on earnings I think it’s more likely that p/e drifts to single digits based on the market staying lower longer and corporate earnings improving. so maybe we stay in a 600-750 range for a long time.

b/c of credit being tight and the consumer saving the recovery doesn’t look robust and will drag on for a time therefore stock picking will be key. Overall market may look like it doesn’t move but certain companies will thrive.

L shaped.

yeah, you are right, but Doug is a lot more convicted on this one. Faber possibly described something interesting in his latest today saying we had a fake rally at the end of 2007 after a pretty rough quick drop so perhaps we are seeing the reverse now. I didn’t necessarily buy into Faber but it’s something to think about and isn’t too far fetched. Don’t know why I’m making excuses for him (Kass) but I just thought it was something to discuss, what he is saying.

Even if this were just a trade I must say, I made a killing on a few select stocks back in November and while the market has made new lows and those stocks have come back down too, many of them are still WAY above where they were on 11/20 or 11/21.

@LB,

I thought you might agree, you and I have seem to have a very similar investment strategy right now. Where is Karen to back me up???

@AT,

Did you read Faber’s latest today? There were some interesting points made about capitulation in it. Also, thanks for saying what I was trying to for Cy, I’m looking at sentiment like you are. Finally, if GE doesn’t cause the next big one down I’d put money on AXP causing something like that. when you have to pay people to stop using your stuff you’ve got a biz problem. I’d probably rule out BAC, C, or GM b/c everybody already knows the deal there. What could be a killer is a problem at a big tech or some other places that, while the stocks have dropped big, solvency issues haven’t so much come into question.

Lastly, can anyone believe Greenburg and this lawsuit? Is he f*cking serious? My memory isn’t so great but I seem to recall him being ousted for the giant illegal shit he was doing as CEO. What goes around comes around pal.