S&P500 Earnings
Some perspective as to the magnitude of the current economic decline:
Today’s chart illustrates that 12-month, as-reported S&P 500 earnings have declined over 80% over the past 18 months, making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a level not seen since the 1930s and 40s – the back end of the Great Depression. While earnings have been struggling since Q3 2007, it was the latest quarter (Q4 2008 the first full quarter following the financial meltdown), where the real damage was done. During Q4 2008, the S&P 500 came in with its first negative earnings quarter ever and the amount lost during the quarter was more than the index has ever earned during a single quarter.
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via Chart of the Day
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March 20th, 2009 at 11:21 am
But Bernanke said the recession could end this year!!
March 20th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Can you say snap-back?
Huzzah!
March 20th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
April. Look out below. Just sayin’…
March 20th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
The latest projections have trailing year quarterly earnings for the S&P 500 as follows, beginning with 2008-Q3, which is the last quarter for which data is complete (2008-Q4 is 98% complete at this writing):
2008-Q3….$45.95
2008-Q4….$8.31
2009-Q1….$4.20
2009-Q2….$3.28
2009-Q3….$34.74
2009-Q4….$37.29
The reason the trailing year earnings for 2008-Q4 through 2009-Q2 are so low is due to the effect of the very negative 2008-Q4, in which many CEOs took advantage of the negative economic climate to write-off the bulk of their companies’ high-loss activities.
Historic rate of return data for the S&P 500, with the latest data through February 2009, is available here.
March 20th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Anyone have earnings excluding financials?
March 20th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Ironman:
Er…it would seem the earnings for Q3 2009 have yet to be adjusted….unless you got those from Fed predictions….
March 20th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
@cjcpa:
I vote Bernanke on the Tonight Show and Jay could do a skit where Leno is the sleazy car salesman, and Bernanke is….well, Bernanke! When he says the recession ends this year, should be good for a laugh or two…!
March 20th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Bruce in TN:
No – that’s within a penny of where S&P is projecting the figure as of today (now showing 99% complete for 2008-Q4). Here’s the quarter-by-quarter breakdown for the 2009-Q3 trailing year earnings figure:
2008-Q4………..$-23.04
2009-Q1………..$+ 8.75
2009-Q2………..$+ 8.75
2009-Q3………..$+ 8.81
——————————-
2009-Q3 (TTM).$+ 3.27
The source data is available here, via the “S&P 500 Earnings & Estimates” Excel spreadsheet. (Links at S&P can be touchy – if it doesn’t work, a Google search for the spreadsheet title should turn it up.)
March 21st, 2009 at 6:21 am
all I see is a system trying to oscillate.