Comments on: Stock markets: Relief rally or new bull? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/stock-markets-relief-rally-or-new-bull/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 22:30:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: ben22 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/stock-markets-relief-rally-or-new-bull/comment-page-1/#comment-152800 ben22 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 12:09:48 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=21465#comment-152800 the 300 point stat is fine but it seems this article focuses on the % gain not the point total gain so what exactly is Rosenberg's point? I seem to recall this stat being brought up months ago and people actually pulling it apart and showing it wasn't even true. I'm sure you could do the same with the historical price charts on yahoo. the 300 point stat is fine but it seems this article focuses on the % gain not the point total gain so what exactly is Rosenberg’s point?

I seem to recall this stat being brought up months ago and people actually pulling it apart and showing it wasn’t even true. I’m sure you could do the same with the historical price charts on yahoo.

]]> By: rktbrkr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/stock-markets-relief-rally-or-new-bull/comment-page-1/#comment-152518 rktbrkr Wed, 11 Mar 2009 13:47:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=21465#comment-152518 300 Point Dow Gains? During Bear Markets ONLY Wednesday, August 06, 2008 | 03:29 PM in Markets | Technical Analysis | Trading Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg was on CNBC this morning, discussing the current Bear Market. He noted that this was the sixth 300 point rally to occur since September 2007 (markets peaked the next month) -- a period of time which can only be described as a Bear Market. Even more intriguing, he observed that EVERY 300 point DJIA rally has occurred ONLY during bear markets. (Even the 1998 LTCM crisis saw two single-day gains of more than 300 points, September 8 and October 15, 1998. At its intra-day lows, 1998 had a 20% decline). During the 2000 to 2002 bear market, the DJIA had 15 days where it gained more than 300 points. The first was March 15, 2000 (five days after the NASDAQ peaked) and the last was October 15, 2002, near the bottom of the bear market. Hence, the odds are against making money chasing these 300+ point rallies. During the 2002 to 2007 bull market, the DJIA had no days where it gained more than 300 points. Jim Bianco asks: "What does the stock market do during bear markets? It has days where it gains more than 300 points in a day. What doesn't the stock market do in a bull market? It does not have days where it gains more than 300 points in a day." What does yesterday's rally say about the state of the stock market . . .? 300 Point Dow Gains? During Bear Markets ONLY
Wednesday, August 06, 2008 | 03:29 PM
in Markets | Technical Analysis | Trading

Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg was on CNBC this morning, discussing the current Bear Market. He noted that this was the sixth 300 point rally to occur since September 2007 (markets peaked the next month) — a period of time which can only be described as a Bear Market.

Even more intriguing, he observed that EVERY 300 point DJIA rally has occurred ONLY during bear markets. (Even the 1998 LTCM crisis saw two single-day gains of more than 300 points, September 8 and October 15, 1998. At its intra-day lows, 1998 had a 20% decline).

During the 2000 to 2002 bear market, the DJIA had 15 days where it gained more than 300 points. The first was March 15, 2000 (five days after the NASDAQ peaked) and the last was October 15, 2002, near the bottom of the bear market.

Hence, the odds are against making money chasing these 300+ point rallies.

During the 2002 to 2007 bull market, the DJIA had no days where it gained more than 300 points.

Jim Bianco asks: “What does the stock market do during bear markets? It has days where it gains more than 300 points in a day. What doesn’t the stock market do in a bull market? It does not have days where it gains more than 300 points in a day.”

What does yesterday’s rally say about the state of the stock market . . .?

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