Why take advice from somenody who has not helped himself and is at the payrol of a bank? If you are really good in predicting the markets you can make in a day what you earn in a year working for a bank.

I do follow from Europe the financial markets in the US. I am happy to find this blog and learn from all your comments.

I am always amazed by the need of investors/traders for a prediction and opinion, just accept that we as humans are not clever enough to really understand the future and make a prediction what the dow will be in 2 hours from now. It is not possible! Most financial experts are being paid by the word, they do not even trade themselves. Only 5 % is consistently making money year after year, the rest is consistently losing. This is what fascinates me, traders and investors belong to the top clever people in the world . Lets say, the upper 10 % and still 90 % of them is losing. Sounds like walking in Paris with a map of Londen. Before I take an advice show me the proof, in trading this means put your trading statemenst on the table. This is just ethical to do.

I try to trade the markets completely in the now and this is so difficult. This means trading without expectations and follow the markets where ever they go. I learned that my opinion is my biggest enemy when trading and that all the stuff I learned at the univerity and MBA was great but not for trading the markets. The need for a prediction gives a false sense of security. The markets are social driven mood energies, we all know at least that these are non liniar and highly uncertain. It is worth while to learn more about socionomics and to really understand that we trade our beliefsystems.

Please do not get me wrong, i am also a learning trader but at least I am not trying to predict anything because that my friends is proven to be wrong so many times in the past. All big events were not predicted by our ancestors. Why do we think we can do this today?

The bottom line is, yesterday’s market rally appeared most consistent with the short-lived rebound rallies that frequently follow 90% Down Days. This does not rule out additional gains in the days ahead. But, unless the rally strengthens substantially, any further advance will likely best serve as an opportunity for additional selling. Near term areas of potential overhead Supply are currently in the minor 5-day trading ranges formed late in February. The Supply should be in the areas of about 7200-7400 for the DJI, 750-780 for the S&P 500 and 1400-1440 for the NASDAQ Comp. A rally on broad-based, strong Demand above the upper edge of these Supply areas could provide the best evidence a more substantial rebound rally is underway—one likely to be measured in weeks rather than days. Most importantly, though, there is, at this point still no definitive evidence the market has put a major low in place. So, even an advance that lasts weeks would still probably qualify only as another bear market rally.

Also, people have a way of using charts to backup their pre-exsisting opinion or bias. He thinks this chart is bullish. But it’s just as easy to make a bearish case from this chart….

How about the fact that if you make a 12-year low, there is something SERIOUSLY wrong with your economy. Like going to a doctor and hearing “I’ve been practicing for 100 years, and only seen a person as sick as you twice!” Both times they miraculously lived, but I can’t say that will happen to you. Would that make you feel much better???

Now how bullish does that chart look.

~~~

BR: Yes, thats why I wrote: “Hitting a twelve year low is by no means is proof the bear market is over. And, two prior examples does not a sufficient sample make. Financial and housing sectors remain in a state of paralysis, and while substantial levels of stimulus are coming, ever larger deficits are coming too.”

Isn’t it amazing that I don’t know where you work or even what company administers your plan but I knew some of your funds had JMP and WFC in them?

This should tell you something about the herd mentality of mutual funds and why they can’t do anything but underperform over a long period of they are managed funds.

It was an interesting read and truthfully, I had not paid as much attention over the past 5 years or so as I had in the early years when I started. I had glanced at the holdings in the past when I had picked up new funds to add to my portfolio, but have not done due diligence of late. This is going to be a fun learning experience and thanks for reminding me that I need to peek under the hood to really make an educated decision in investing in mutual funds.

NP,

Just a thought on prospectus, that will tell you about what the fund could look like but not tell you what it does look like right now. Use that to get a sense of how it can be managed and the fees but if you really want to know what’s in it, call the fund company and talk to rep and discuss the top 25 holdings. They won’t charge you for that call and you can ask as many questions as you want. I can bet you that any of your large cap funds are holding some sort of combination of WFC and JPM or BRK-A so in fact if you own that you are exposed to financials. I suppose that if you were going to own a bank it should be JPM but I would not put my money with a manager owning a bank right now in a fund because they aren’t buying them for a trade.

Remember that the funds time horizon has nothing to do with yours.

Good luck.

What was a bit humorous was watching both Cramer and Obama argue about the current admin’s responsibility for the new lows, but then ultimately both men call a bottom…
http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/03/obama-and-cramer-now-bullish-on-stocks.html

That’s about as good as it gets… , but Fisher has been calling it for a while:
http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/02/bull-market-move-swift-and-steep.html

But I have to agree with Greenhaus’ points that currently this “feels” to me just like 1974…
http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/01/what-was-warren-doing-in-1974-how-about.html

Thanks for the link to FE. From what I was able to briefly read on that, it seems to be a good take on the way the world is currently working

Thanks for the response. I will do some more reading about mutual funds so that I understand NAV a bit better. Before I get back in to any fund, even the ones I held before, I was going to download the prospectus for each fund and make sure I understood their makeup. That is a good point about investigating any fund’s ongoing exposure to the banking and finance industry.