What is the State of the Economy?
By Barry Ritholtz - March 26th, 2009, 12:00PM
Macro Notes
We don’t want your help because maybe we don’t need itPeter Boockvar
While yesterday's US stock market close was poor, Asia and Europe didn't follow today as debt in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc... rallied, their CDS narrowed and stocks bounced. The Greek finance minister said January tax revenues came in above expectations and that spending was below target for the month and said "that means the deficit reduction for January is well within what we have promised." The euro is rising in turn. Also helping is the story that Trichet is headed to the European Union leaders summit a day early in order to address Greece's problems even as the Greek finance...
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March 26th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Neat chart but it needs Govt Debt and Consumer debt as well considering those are key drivers.
March 26th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Nice graphical representation. Would be more useful if it included the upper and lower numbers for Typical for each bar.
March 26th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
As investors, don’t you want to be making a large amount of your investments when economic conditions are bad, but getting better?
All the doom and gloom on TBP lately makes me want to go all in very soon.
March 26th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
@Jdamon33
Go for it! Just keep us here at TBP posted on how that turns out!
March 26th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
It also needs a slider for AIG bonuses. Kidding!
While I agree with Barry that the bonuses are statistically insignificant, I do think that they highlight the immoral Wall Street culture that got us in this mess. If you watched the President’s town hall meetings lately, you’d notice that real people aren’t asking about AIG bonuses. They’re asking about jobs, education, health care.
The AIG thing was a tempest in Washington’s teapot.
March 26th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
It’s not a pretty picture. Initial claims numbers are still very high.
The longer we sit at SPX 825 the greater the chance that the rally stalls out right here.
I am getting less optimistic unless we make a decisive break above 825 today.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
What’s with all the people saying no short interest in financials:
Traders opened $15.78 billion in new short positions in stocks in the Russell 3,000 index in the March 2 to March 13 period… That’s the largest rise in short interest since June 2008. Financials and information technology sectors received the largest short-interest inflows.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
That was from MarketWatch BTW.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
@leftback: Looks like that you’re move you were looking for is here.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
@leftback – ask and you shall receive. Anyone hear anything?
March 26th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
market should be topping in the next two hours. i am seeing the same exhaustive momentum run within each chart – 5 through 60 minute charts all depicting the same harmonic fractal. vapors.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
i would speculate that by 4 pm friday you will see the spys in the low 79s.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Wrt the graphic supplied by Russell Investments, if you read the FAQ section there is an internal contradiction going on. It states:
“Can I use the dashboard as a forecasting tool?
No. The dashboard is not a predictive or market timing tool. The dashboard is intended as a tool for advisors to set context and perspective when evaluating the current state of the economy. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future performance of any economic or financial market. It is not intended to predict or guarantee future investment performance of any sort.”
and then says:
“How can I use the dashboard to talk to my investors?
You can use the dashboard to show your clients how the current economy, based on these indicators, compares to more historically typical conditions and to show them which direction the market seems to be moving.”
Here are my predictions since none of you are my clients:
1) F is a buy @ 2.90
2) jdamon33 will never send me a fruit basket for my ACAS and XL recos.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Wow! Are we still hearing the old, “All the doom and gloom on TBP lately makes me want to go all in very soon.” This time by way of jdmon33. If you haven’t been long the last three weeks your a little late to the party. Of course they might stoke the flames of hell one more time for all us common folk, with another bull-shit bailout. There are no free lunches.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Over at CR: Thursday, March 26, 2009
U.S. Hotel Occupancy Rate at 58.5%
SRS, SRS, SRS. Yes, I’m talking my book.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Additionally, anyone who tell me with a reasonable amount of accuracy where the economy is heading would never rely on that sort of graphic representation.
Also, GAFISA is worth a look.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
“All the doom and gloom on TBP lately makes me want to go all in very soon.”
This from the guy who was braying a couple of weeks ago when his WFC bet was circling the toilet for O to intervene with a bank bailout plan to save his hide. Based on that alone, you should be voting for O in 2012. He saved your WFC bet, for the time being. At least give him a cut of the action anyway.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
I added longs last night. Better to be lucky than good, eh?
Search me. I am still looking for a top at XLF 10 but my main guide is EUR:JPY.
If we see a blowoff top to the rally, I will sell strength today. I do think this rally is tired.
Then if I start to see the $ AND yen finding strong support, you can bet I will be joining Mr Shorty in the woods.
We are surprised to see Kudlow refer to the Spring Fling as the “Dougie Kass rally”.
Everyone knows this was a move off the Leftback Bottom.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
I wish I could have typed ‘could’ in my previous comment. I’ll be quiet now.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Financials and information technology sectors received the largest short-interest inflows.
BTW, notice the NASDAQ just went positive YTD.
Coincidence?
I think probably not.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Jeff -
Still waiting until next week to pick up more SRS? I’m looking to get back in below 50.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
“NASDAQ just went positive YTD”
Cor blimey. You must be pulling my plonker. But it’s true!!
Hmm… sell signal??? I wonder if Steve Barry knows the P/E on the NAZZ right now??
Classic pump and dump job by GS on RIMM today….
The XLF is not exactly kicking butt today.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
@batmando. Yes, I want it to go below $50 as well but I’m not sure it will go there. Maybe the final 20-30 minutes of trading today. That’s been the trend with it on up days, it usually gets dumped hard into the close.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Vix at 40.2. If I had any longs, I’d sell them at this point.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Cor blimey. You must be pulling my plonker. But it’s true!!
Hmm… sell signal??? I wonder if Steve Barry knows the P/E on the NAZZ right now??
Classic pump and dump job by GS on RIMM today….
The XLF is not exactly kicking butt today.
Somebody mentioned this already, but I noticed it before too:
Last time around financials and REITs started trailing the majors before the bottom fell out.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
“Last time around financials and REITs started trailing the majors before the bottom fell out.”
Yeah, we’re getting close to the turn. But the $ isn’t showing strength yet.
Watch UUP 25.25. That is the bottom of the huge gap that opened up on the day that the Fed announced they were buying Treasuries. If we start to fill that gap then I am shorting equities.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
SKF @ $92.6. Over the last 15 months, buying at this level has been a “no-lose” proposition.
But then, of course, maybe this time, the Treasury secretary has solved all our financial problems.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Well, the economy is better off than our friend GM…who, I couldn’t resist looking up while working at the salt mine this morning….
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=gm
We are about to ” lend ” them more money…
as of Dec 31 total debt is:
46.5 billion
book value per share is – 141 dollars…..(and this is year end 2008)….
shares are up 14% today….
for every dollar I make I pay 40 cents in taxes to uncle….
just musings….
March 26th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
For Transor Z
OT: I found this recently. If you plug the file no. in, lots of stuff pops up. I saw this:
§ 240.36a1-2 Exemption from SIPA for OTC derivatives dealers.
OTC derivatives dealers, as defined in § 240.3b-12, shall be exempted from the provisions of the Securities Investor Protection Act of 1970 (15 U.S.C. 78aaa et seq.).
Reference:
OTC Derivatives Dealers
File No. S7-30-97
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Release No. 34-39454; 17 CFR Parts 200, 240, 249; RIN 3235-AH16
December 17, 1997
March 26th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s73097/litterm1.htm
The cc list on the letter is interesting:
cc: Richard Lindsey
Catherine McGuire
Michael Macchiaroli
Jon S. Corzine
John A. Thain
Barry L. Zubrow
David A. Viniar
C. Douglas Fuge
March 26th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
“SKF @ $92.6. Over the last 15 months, buying at this level has been a “no-lose” proposition.”
I like the way you think. FAZ is quite an attractive teenager at this point.
Bruce, I am now up 85 points above SPX 745 with three full sessions in March.
It seems highly likely you will be buying the burgers before too long, amigo.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Might be of interest
http://www.iasplus.com/resource/0011secindependence.pdf
Look for footnote 140. Subheading of that section is this stunner:
“The Commission Should Not Delay Action to Engage in Further Study”
Yes! Exactly! We can not afford NOT to dick around!
March 26th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Federal Register /Vol. 63, No. 218 /Thursday, November 12, 1998 /Rules and Regulations
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION
17 CFR Parts 200, 240, 249
[Release No. 34–40594A; File No. S7–30–
97]
RIN 3235–AH16
OTC Derivatives Dealers; Correction
AGENCY: Securities and Exchange
Commission.
ACTION: Correction to final regulation.
SUMMARY: This document contains a
correction to final regulations (34–
40594), which were published Tuesday,
November 3, 1998, (63 FR 59362). The
regulations establish a new regulatory
framework under the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934 that tailor capital,
margin, and other broker-dealer
regulatory requirements to a class of
registered dealers, called OTC
derivatives dealers, that are active in
over-the-counter derivatives markets.
Compare the language in the FR paragraph “that tailor capital,
margin, and other broker-dealer regulatory requirements” to the letter from GS to SEC (1st para):
“that would tailor capital, margin, and other broker-dealer regulatory requirements”
The only G–D— difference is one word ‘would’. I guess when GS uses the conditional tense the SEC gets the point and snaps to attention.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
long faz @ 19.3
March 26th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Picked up small amounts of SRS and QID and dumped SSO. Off for a workout. Good luck all.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
“The Commission Should Not Delay Action to Engage in Further Study”
I think that is just boilerplate .gov, that text is probably is in all studies.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
A great chart….and pretty accurate really…..we’re not sure where we’re going but on balance it’s suggestive of bumping along the bottom……and on the durable numbers from yesterday it seems those couple of anecdotal nuggets I picked up about two weeks ago of slightly strengthening o/bs weren’t far off the mark……despite BR’s housing thing I think outside the usual suspects its bottoming…..so in a broader sense how long do we bump along bottom…..one q or two or three or seven….given the money that’s being pumped into the economy it’s probably going to be shorter than longer…two more q’s at most….then a slow turnaround with employment as ever the the lagging indicator…..but the deflationary spiral avoided…..and no bank nationalizations.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
dumped @ 19.75 – think there’s one more slump before close.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
MRegan Says:
March 26th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Look for footnote 140. Subheading of that section is this stunner …
comment:
————————
This thing is your idea of light reading …
“Final Rule:
Revision of the Commission’s Auditor Independence
Requirements
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION”
It’s a real spellbinder. I couldn’t stop turning the pages. Ready for a pop quiz?
March 26th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
MR–
you wouldn’t happen to be close to GFA, would you?
I’ve some other apps that are right up their alley..
March 26th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Funny hobo…who knows how some people get their rocks off….
March 26th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
otto,
I’ll give you a clue, that st**f is Formulaic, once you catch the theme of its construction, it becomes EZ -to-Read..
March 26th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
there’s another push left in this tape – perhaps higher than 832.
forgive me if i am providing to much info without any charting or rationale behind my comments. no time – but i am watching the 5 through 60 minute charts on the spx. nice geometry and harmonics throughout. pretty rare.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
ottovbvs,
What’s your take on the next cycle? How close to 700 or below do you think it might go? My active imagination thinks that it will droop off to around 700 next month, languish a bit, then drive past 850 in May or June if there is no bad news to hold it back. Then, assuming continued improvements in the news, a nice, upward sloping and improving series of ranges for several months. Of course, this time might be different and it won’t go down for years.
March 26th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
This market is looking a little tired up here. I think we need to buck up for a decent correction of this move up. I think we ultimately trade higher into April, but the current move is feeling a bit exhausted. Perhaps a bit too much new length on board?
March 26th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Interesting. I was just thinking this is classic Wall of Worry stuff. We all think it’s going to blow any day.
The time to get out might finally be when Johnny Retail gets a brokerage statement on April 3, sees that Q1 wasn’t so bad after all, and then he just can’t wait to call his broker to get into mutual funds, tech stocks, and other broker favorites…. the market surges exuberantly, the nation cheers – then the dismal Q1 earnings hit the Street, almost exactly at the same time that hedge trimming™ begins as our heroes in Greenwich start liquidating their holdings for redemptions. Classic scenario, eh?
March 26th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
lb,
seriously, is Johnny Retail even buying stox (odd lots/individual securities), anymore?
March 26th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
leftback Says:
March 26th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
The time to get out might finally be when Johnny Retail gets a brokerage statement on April 3, sees that Q1 wasn’t so bad after all, and then he just can’t wait to call his broker to get into mutual funds, tech stocks, and other broker favorites…. the market surges exuberantly, the nation cheers
idle speculation:
———————-
My guess is we have to wait until each successive bottom is higher than the previous one and the same with the tops. Then people won’t go nuts every time there is a big fast drop for no obvious reason. They might flash some new cash. Right now, the window dressers are probably supporting this market at this moment (Thanks, see you next quarter, senior window dresser).
March 26th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Of course we’re giving hostages to fortune here so all the negativos will come out and hang us….I don’t know if you’ve read any of the pieces by Doug Kass….. I’m a bit of Kassite (just so we know who we are I’m not a day trader, not clever enough, just a neanderthal value investor who buys on dips) his scenario is very much yours although he thinks it treads water til later in Summer then a strong rally to Y/E. I think this has some more legs and like you thencorrects to low/mid 700’s in April…..treads water for a while…..Kass says late Summer I think a bit longer which I admit is a long time to be directionless but there you are….and then a really strong rally in the last four months….I’ve gone back in over the last month or so but still have a lot of cash so need that correction in April for my scenario to work…..I do think there’s merit in the argument that we could be surprised in the speed of the real economy snapback when it comes…this could turn on a dime….I’m not saying it will but it could….Of course it won’t have the housing component but then housing prices were relatively slow until the last couple of years of the 90’s and things were moving quite nicely in 1994 as I recall….But yes in a nutshell back to 700 then languish…then movement which one has to be ready for….Costa Rica is out
March 26th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
“seriously, is Johnny Retail even buying stox (odd lots/individual securities), anymore?”
I guess not. Typically he is in evidence nearer “The Top”.
Got any mushrooms left?
March 26th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
I just had an idea. I’m not smart enough to do it, assuming it can be done. Assume window dressers are the aggressive longs at this time and they really really want to make the market go higher just to jazz up their statements. How would you fuck with them so that they really had to work hard for the next couple of days?
March 26th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
my 2 cents, if the dollar and yen continue to weaken, the spx can continue its march and bust shorts’ ____ on the way up. those are my tells for now…
March 26th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
MH-
Re GFA. No, I only know a little about the company. Take a look at OAS- they are building a hydroplant out in Inambari, Madre de Dios, Peru. I’ll find a link.
Hey Otto-
I get my rocks off the old-fashioned way, with a shovel and gloves under the midday sun in the back of my pickup truck, lots of grunting and scraping, maybe a few whimpers. 41% in down YoY? How does that jibe with what your RE friend thought?
dead hobo- no, not ready for a pop quiz.
All that OTC Derivative stuff was mostly meant for Transor Z. If you want to tease me, make fun of my nose or sixth finger, you know…
March 26th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
@ MRegan: Thanks. The Goldman Sachs letter is interesting, isn’t it? More of the fox-guarding-the-henhouse theme. I’ll try to look at the other info in the next couple of days.
“We need to be able to do this to compete with off-shore houses — and don’t worry about risk; we’re all professionals. ”
In fairness, it should be pointed out that these events took place on Clinton’s watch. So the rule of thumb is still if there’s bipartisan support in Washington for something, check to make sure you still have your wallet.
Robert Lenzner at Forbes and others warned about “off balance sheet” activities at the banks and IBs for some time leading up to this mess. In all of the documents I’ve read the last few days, it seems that “systemic risk” was paid lip service by the powers involved. GS alluded to it in the link you posted and glossed it over under the aegis of “sophisticated parties.” The 1999 NYT article on Gramm-Leach Barry posted referred to Paul Wellstone as “gloomy.” The CBO report to the House Committee back in 97 made an obligatory reference to systemic risk and then projected break-even cost of implementation (!).
William Seidman gave a 1996 speech to NIKKIN in Tokyo in which he said that, back in 1990 as FDIC Chair he had convened a global conference on systemic risk. The conference, he said, was a failure because no one at central banks wanted to talk openly about how they would manage a meltdown — for fear that they would give too much away to the market players and invite moral hazard just by raising the topic. Honestly, I’m too jaded to even place much stock in the for-the-record Jeremaiads by Wellstone and others about being “mindful of the lessons of the S&L crisis. ” The fact is the derivatives market has clearly been on a fast track for some time (20+ years) with powerful forces clearing the way. And obviously nobody in charge had any fucking clue what they would do in the aggregate.
March 26th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
“How would you fuck with them so that they really had to work hard for the next couple of days?”
DH, you can’t beat the frat boys, old chap. The trick is to get in ahead of them (at the Leftback Bottom) while there’s plenty of beer left in the keg, and then leave the party with the best-looking girl before the cops arrive.
March 26th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
$tran made a nice move today, for those that care, $wlsh, too. sure we could take a rest here; but i’ll let the dollar and yen decide because we are still not overbot.
March 26th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
“41% in down YoY? How does that jibe with what your RE friend thought?”
…….It’s all location, location, as I’ve said all along….and I’ve been in the construction equip business so know a bit about grunting and scraping
March 26th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
guidepostings,
My hat tip to you. You’ve got some chops. Still going 790 tomorrow?
March 26th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
TZ-
Well, being too ‘gloomy’ can give one a fatal case of dead, I guess.
You state: “And obviously nobody in charge had any fucking clue what they would do in the aggregate.”
Is it possible that those in charge, even though they were unable to know(understand/conclude/intuit) what would happen, were told by underlings smarter than they? And told in ways that leave an echo?
You see, I think of that guy from Enron, Lou Lung Pai, and how he jumped ship early. Isn’t possible that he knew just that like Richard Kinder must have known. People had to know. Some of them must have said or emailed something.
March 26th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Otto-
that was metaphor- you see ‘getting one’s rocks off’ has a sexual connotation so I conflated that notion with an absurd referent context and suggestive actions to elicit a chuckle.
March 26th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
@karen. in re: US dollar in Yen. Agreed, but I think the Yen and the Stock Market has lost a lot of correlation last several weeks. Not the same with the DX. I think the SP500 needs DX weakness to produce more of a rally. In re: the DX…I’m seeing it in nice, shallow consolidation channel that suggests another leg down coming. Not sure when, but it’s a pattern that definitely suggests another leg down. This will most certainly help the stock market and commodities.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Otto is back in the penalty box
I expect Mr R. will be banning him shortly, as he insists on crosstalk
March 26th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
MRegan Says:
March 26th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
‘getting one’s rocks off’ has a sexual connotation
…..even I’m aware of that which is why I said it….in your post I thought that was the whimpering bit and you were also making some R/E refs from your own state
March 26th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
EDITOR Says:
March 26th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
dead hobo Says:
March 26th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
ottovbvs,
What’s your take on the next cycle?
……I guess I’ll be in there with hobo
March 26th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
“In re: the DX…I’m seeing it in nice, shallow consolidation channel that suggests another leg down coming. Not sure when, but it’s a pattern that definitely suggests another leg down. This will most certainly help the stock market and commodities.”–AT
yeah, the Paperback didn’t catch much of a bid today, Texas Tea higher, though NatGas lower..
Au, Ag, Pt, Pd, Cu, at the min., Higher.
Grains, other assorted ‘Softs’, mostly higher.
http://www.ino.com/
AT,
are you looking for a replay of early Dec., re: DX?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&t=f
Silver up another 1%+
March 26th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
andy, the reason i’m watching the yen is more for it’s effect on the fxe:fxy ratio… it’s looking toppy, but if the yen can fall farther, it’ll maintain… i have long used the $xeu:$xjy as my crystal ball : ) so, basically, i’m saying i agree with what you stated.. i was the one that was not clear. i use UPP for my dollar watch on the intra-day, too. all the correlations work until they don’t, of course. thanks for your 2 cents, as always.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Hoffer. Yes. I see this current DX decline as connecting with the Dec decline. So, this is the C wave down whereas the move down in December was the initial A wave down. So, this move on the DX has further to fall and the price action last few days has helped to confirm this view. This doesn’t look like like “bottoming” action to me on the DX…it just looks like it’s a taking a break before resuming its decline.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Making a company decision after ignoring your most on-the-ball subordinate’s recommendations is still called a “business decision.”
The fact that MBS/CDS transactions were industry-standard will carry a lot of weight against accusations of fraud, breach of fiduciary duty, etc.
I wouldn’t get my hopes up for “smoking gun” documents and testimony like in Enron. The off-balance sheet activities, leverage levels, swaps, all apparently legal as far as anyone is saying so far — and rest assured that many, many people are watching and digging right now. It’s also standard for major players in regulated industries to serve on advisory panels with input into regulatory language and effect. No laws against contributing to a politician’s reelection campaign or being on a first-name basis with him because you employ 5,000 of his constituents and heck, you like him/her and the two of you go way back.
Forget about protecting your bitch in heat if you’re determined to let her out in the yard. At least one male will always find a way to get to her — over, under, around, or through the fence you put up. It’s just the way of things.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
On the politics tangent……this mean Kudlow thinks Obama’s a hero….can’t see it……But if we do see some substantive recovery late this year early next the O man and his lieutenants will be gods believe me…..I just watched a clip of the Republicans announcing their budget proposals… not much detail but basically big savings on condoms and Acorn subsidies and a spending freeze…..it’s hard not to laugh….particularly when they apparently want to regulate the activities of Michelle….this is not a joke….the girls get regulated next week
March 26th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
AT,
I hear ya, that coupled w/ your SPX+, DX- view, makes sense. distraction of higher stock # prints, that are worth less..
March 26th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
@MEH: I am long grains, oil and mushrooms until the $ reaches bottom.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Transor Z Says:
March 26th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
…..One of the things that most Americans don’t get is the extent to which rules are set by the industries they effect……..who do you think sets all the rules for the transport industry…..or ic engines…..or waste disposal….or safety regs….or just about anything else…..typically trade associations send people to man all these standards committees….sure there’s some token union, academic or govt presence but the real muscle comes from the industry who have the resources to produce the papers and do analysis….this is very unlike Europe where industry does have a voice but where in the main these groups tend to be dominated by govt scientists or specialists of one sort or another…..I’ve seen both systems close up….so not surprisingly most regs come out looking like the particular industry wants them to look….govt in the US by and large doesn’t have the resource to oversee all this stuff which is why we keep hearing horror stories out the FDA.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
lb,
yon’ $ is going to be a problem..people should remember 1/$, it’ll help them, going fwd:
March 26th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
leftback @ 4:35
“Magic” mushrooms?
March 26th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
lb,
also “Grains” price spike on Supply constraints, a very real possibility.
DL,
http://mushroomspawn.cas.psu.edu/mushroom.shtml
medicinal mushroom, and mushrooms for bio-remediation..
March 26th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
Mortgage delinquencies are off the chart literally. Unless there is a deus ex machina turnaround the banks are going to have an ugly 1Q regardless of Sahib Vikram’s 2 month profitability announcement. Tiny Tim will have a very difficult time when he goes for the next acronym laden round of bank bailouts.
And the gap between what Tim’s vulture partners will pay for hypertoxic assets and what the banks can afford to sell them for will grow even larger. Need more subsidies there too.
March 26th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Obama 08-Depression 09 Not Just A Bumper Sticker Anymore!
March 26th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
“What is the State of the Economy?”
Ask most Americans and they’d probably say “like shit”. And since they are 70% of GDP, well you get the picture.
March 27th, 2009 at 7:28 am
ottovbvs,
I just found some Doug Kass articles at TheStreet. You’re right, he and I think alike. I’m going to start looking more into his ideas.