Comments on: Banks and Economic Data Wrestle to a Draw http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:28:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: constantnormal http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166953 constantnormal Fri, 01 May 2009 14:36:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166953 leftback, I (with extreme sadness and regret) agree with you, that the likelihood is for an upside breakout. I further fear that this faux bull may run for months, if not years, in a manner similar to the runup from 1933-1937, to be eventually brought down by Bernanke's success(?) in smothering deflation with inflation. It will be someone else's problem to deal with the inflation, in the face of persistent, nagging, Japan-esque high unemployment levels, and a pretty much continuous shrinkage in GDP. leftback, I (with extreme sadness and regret) agree with you, that the likelihood is for an upside breakout. I further fear that this faux bull may run for months, if not years, in a manner similar to the runup from 1933-1937, to be eventually brought down by Bernanke’s success(?) in smothering deflation with inflation. It will be someone else’s problem to deal with the inflation, in the face of persistent, nagging, Japan-esque high unemployment levels, and a pretty much continuous shrinkage in GDP.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166308 leftback Wed, 29 Apr 2009 17:10:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166308 Jack, I agree that we are about to break out of this tight trading range, and I suspect that it may be to the upside since the likelihood of the banks having their pants pulled down by the Stress Test next week is zero. Since I agree that the BKX/XLF has dragged the market around, that means that we may end up breaking to the upside. As there are quite a few stops set at SPX 875 and just above, we may see an explosive move higher. The fundamentals remain horrid, as the Q1 GDP emphasized this morning. Jack, I agree that we are about to break out of this tight trading range, and I suspect that it may be to the upside since the likelihood of the banks having their pants pulled down by the Stress Test next week is zero. Since I agree that the BKX/XLF has dragged the market around, that means that we may end up breaking to the upside. As there are quite a few stops set at SPX 875 and just above, we may see an explosive move higher.

The fundamentals remain horrid, as the Q1 GDP emphasized this morning.

]]> By: snapshot http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166133 snapshot Wed, 29 Apr 2009 10:24:13 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166133 http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/ Has anyone checked out the Tom-Foolery being tracked @ Bronte Capital? It involves hedge funds, lawyer's letters and vice presidents. http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/

Has anyone checked out the Tom-Foolery being tracked @ Bronte Capital?
It involves hedge funds, lawyer’s letters and vice presidents.

]]> By: bman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166124 bman Wed, 29 Apr 2009 04:53:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166124 @Mannwich: Yes, Touchdown dances, punctuated by airplane scares. If we all could be more measured... @Mannwich: Yes, Touchdown dances, punctuated by airplane scares. If we all could be more measured…

]]> By: Pat G. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166122 Pat G. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 04:35:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166122 @Mannwich I agree with your synopsis. It's not your imagination. $13T and counting with another $55T+ on the horizon. I can't see how this ends well for us or the rest of the world. @Mannwich

I agree with your synopsis. It’s not your imagination. $13T and counting with another $55T+ on the horizon. I can’t see how this ends well for us or the rest of the world.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166120 Mannwich Wed, 29 Apr 2009 04:17:51 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166120 Maybe it's my imagination but it seems to me that expectations have been set so low so anything not resembling utter disastrous data or news is rather forcefully celebrated by the MSM. Combine that with a little animal spirits and spring fever hitting (and people just simply tired of being down and worried all the time) and I think it has the makings of a little dose of self-delusion, at least among those who still have jobs. Me-thinks they're overdoing it with these touchdown dances when a more measured approach should be the name of the game right now, especially with everything that we've seen. However, something tells me we may head upward in the market a bit more here for a few more weeks until the bears (including myself) are feeling maximum pain and then the selling starts in late May/June. We shall see soon enough. I'm willing to be patient and won't likely be very active right now. Very cautious. Maybe it’s my imagination but it seems to me that expectations have been set so low so anything not resembling utter disastrous data or news is rather forcefully celebrated by the MSM. Combine that with a little animal spirits and spring fever hitting (and people just simply tired of being down and worried all the time) and I think it has the makings of a little dose of self-delusion, at least among those who still have jobs.

Me-thinks they’re overdoing it with these touchdown dances when a more measured approach should be the name of the game right now, especially with everything that we’ve seen. However, something tells me we may head upward in the market a bit more here for a few more weeks until the bears (including myself) are feeling maximum pain and then the selling starts in late May/June. We shall see soon enough. I’m willing to be patient and won’t likely be very active right now. Very cautious.

]]> By: Pat G. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166119 Pat G. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:58:56 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166119 “less bad than expected news” This is what Fleckenstein refers to as the "beating the numbers game". It's all a ruse. “less bad than expected news”

This is what Fleckenstein refers to as the “beating the numbers game”. It’s all a ruse.

]]> By: usphoenix http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166118 usphoenix Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:56:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166118 Sounds like pumping to me. Sounds like pumping to me.

]]> By: mark mchugh http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/banks-and-economic-data-wrestle-to-a-draw-2/comment-page-1/#comment-166116 mark mchugh Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:41:56 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25109#comment-166116 Here's a fun game: Next time things look bleak for stocks, get a dollar index chart up ( link for a 1 minute auto update chart) like: http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart.action?s=DX+A0&chartUi.period=D&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.bartype=BAR&chartUi.size=620x300&chartUi.minutes=1 When you see the dollar index drop sharply, stocks will reverse (happens pretty much every time). What I can't tell you is what drives the currency markets and why the swings are so violent, but let me say this, the timing is uncanny. Here’s a fun game:

Next time things look bleak for stocks, get a dollar index chart up

( link for a 1 minute auto update chart)
like: http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart.action?s=DX+A0&chartUi.period=D&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.bartype=BAR&chartUi.size=620×300&chartUi.minutes=1

When you see the dollar index drop sharply, stocks will reverse (happens pretty much every time).

What I can’t tell you is what drives the currency markets and why the swings are so violent, but let me say this, the timing is uncanny.

]]>