Comments on: Existing Home Prices Fall 12.4%; Sales Drop 7.1% http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 21:44:40 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Bob A http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164645 Bob A Fri, 24 Apr 2009 03:07:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164645 Puget Sound region pending sales well behind 2008 levels http://www.washingtonrealestatepage.com/bobsbugle Puget Sound region pending sales well behind 2008 levels

http://www.washingtonrealestatepage.com/bobsbugle

]]> By: Onlooker from Troy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164541 Onlooker from Troy Thu, 23 Apr 2009 21:18:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164541 >>>Paul Jones Says: April 23rd, 2009 at 3:41 pm My suggestion? Quit “hoping” and start getting to the bottom of the problems.<<< Bingo. We need to get out of the state of denial and realize that the jig is up. We ran the place into the ground and we're going to have to build it back up from a solid foundation. Anything else is just attempting to do more of what got us here. (The collective "we" of course. I'm know I've got plenty of company here in the camp that's been watching this slow motion train wreck and have been yelling at the TV, radio, etc. for years!) >>>Paul Jones Says:
April 23rd, 2009 at 3:41 pm

My suggestion? Quit “hoping” and start getting to the bottom of the problems.<<<

Bingo. We need to get out of the state of denial and realize that the jig is up. We ran the place into the ground and we’re going to have to build it back up from a solid foundation. Anything else is just attempting to do more of what got us here. (The collective “we” of course. I’m know I’ve got plenty of company here in the camp that’s been watching this slow motion train wreck and have been yelling at the TV, radio, etc. for years!)

]]> By: Publius http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164488 Publius Thu, 23 Apr 2009 20:15:35 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164488 Looks like more signal than noise in the graph.... From this graph, the decline is slowing. Looks like more signal than noise in the graph….

From this graph, the decline is slowing.

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164471 Mark E Hoffer Thu, 23 Apr 2009 20:01:51 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164471 Jeff, take note, this is the last "Home-Selling Season" you're going to see, at anywhere near these levels of relative pricing, for a looong time.. and, since you sound like you're not wedded to the TC.. MA, start w/ H.R. 875, and go from there, the Regulatory assault has been ongoing, and its fixing to ramp.. this: http://animalid.aphis.usda.gov/nais/index.shtml is another piece of BS that is apiece.. Jeff,

take note, this is the last “Home-Selling Season” you’re going to see, at anywhere near these levels of relative pricing, for a looong time..

and, since you sound like you’re not wedded to the TC..

MA,

start w/ H.R. 875, and go from there, the Regulatory assault has been ongoing, and its fixing to ramp..
this: http://animalid.aphis.usda.gov/nais/index.shtml
is another piece of BS that is apiece..

]]> By: Todd http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164470 Todd Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:57:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164470 Farming and ranching is all about cash flow / credit / and debt management. If credit tightens up your toast. I know dirt farming in TX, you get a really profitable year maybe once every 5-10 years. You usually roll your losses over into the next years crop loans. Now on ranching on non arable land where you measure number acres needed to support a cow, not number of cows per acre. The price of cattle directly affects your cashflow, if you can subsidize this with leasing hunting rights. Both are depressed right now. Most of the time you hope to run cash positive, but at a tax loss. The only thing that you can always to count on is an increase in taxes. Farming and ranching is all about cash flow / credit / and debt management. If credit tightens up your toast. I know dirt farming in TX, you get a really profitable year maybe once every 5-10 years. You usually roll your losses over into the next years crop loans.

Now on ranching on non arable land where you measure number acres needed to support a cow, not number of cows per acre. The price of cattle directly affects your cashflow, if you can subsidize this with leasing hunting rights. Both are depressed right now.

Most of the time you hope to run cash positive, but at a tax loss. The only thing that you can always to count on is an increase in taxes.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164460 Mannwich Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:45:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164460 @leftback: Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge makes a similar case against Goldman manipulating the market (Goldman = PPT). I keep urging a buddy of mine in NYC who works in the documentary film biz (was one of the creators/producers of "Supersize Me") to do a documentary on Goldman. @leftback: Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge makes a similar case against Goldman manipulating the market (Goldman = PPT). I keep urging a buddy of mine in NYC who works in the documentary film biz (was one of the creators/producers of “Supersize Me”) to do a documentary on Goldman.

]]> By: Paul Jones http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164459 Paul Jones Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:41:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164459 Even a bear like myself is taken aback by how the For Sale signs are out competing the dandelions. My suggestion? Quit "hoping" and start getting to the bottom of the problems. Even a bear like myself is taken aback by how the For Sale signs are out competing the dandelions.

My suggestion? Quit “hoping” and start getting to the bottom of the problems.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164458 leftback Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:41:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164458 Looking out of my window I can just make out a marauding band of bankers protesting in their Gucci loafers. "We demand Congress pay Country Club dues" says one placard. "Dalton is F***ing Expensive", reads another. A banner is unfurled and draped across the entrance to Ralph Lauren: "Hamptons McMansion Homeowners Association". Gosh. Things are getting serious. They have set up a rather nice wood-burning stove and they are burning some papers marked "Stress Tests"... Jesse has a nice technical post and clearly agrees that the markets are being nudged around by Blankfein. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/ Looking out of my window I can just make out a marauding band of bankers protesting in their Gucci loafers. “We demand Congress pay Country Club dues” says one placard. “Dalton is F***ing Expensive”, reads another. A banner is unfurled and draped across the entrance to Ralph Lauren: “Hamptons McMansion Homeowners Association”. Gosh. Things are getting serious.

They have set up a rather nice wood-burning stove and they are burning some papers marked “Stress Tests”…

Jesse has a nice technical post and clearly agrees that the markets are being nudged around by Blankfein.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164451 Mannwich Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:28:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164451 @leftback: Instead of the denizens of Main Street marching the streets with pitchforks, maybe it will be the denizens of Wall Street, demanding a return to multi-million dollar bonuses? After all, it's easy to see why they feel so wronged. In this bizarro world we live in, this is actually almost plausible. @leftback: Instead of the denizens of Main Street marching the streets with pitchforks, maybe it will be the denizens of Wall Street, demanding a return to multi-million dollar bonuses? After all, it’s easy to see why they feel so wronged. In this bizarro world we live in, this is actually almost plausible.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/existing-home-prices-fall-124-sales-drop-71/comment-page-1/#comment-164449 leftback Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:24:37 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24313#comment-164449 Check out the whining and sense of entitlement among these interviews with current and former I-bankers. Like I said earlier, NYC is in a state of denial. Or at least one segment of the city is: http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/56151/ Wonder how they will feel when their property "values" have plunged by 50%? (Or more.... ) :-) There is a remarkable sense here that Manhattan real estate was "not a bubble", and "it can't happen here". Once the selling starts, it will be absolutely vertical. Got popcorn? Check out the whining and sense of entitlement among these interviews with current and former I-bankers.
Like I said earlier, NYC is in a state of denial. Or at least one segment of the city is:
http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/56151/

Wonder how they will feel when their property “values” have plunged by 50%? (Or more…. ) :-)
There is a remarkable sense here that Manhattan real estate was “not a bubble”, and “it can’t happen here”.
Once the selling starts, it will be absolutely vertical. Got popcorn?

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