Comments on: Green Shoots Are For Suckers

By: gloppie

gloppie — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 11:19:08 +0000

Not an “L” recession, nor a ” W” recession in my opinion.
We are just starting our ” \” recession.
Backslash for the backlash.

Indeed we have a poor sense of time and scale, this recession is barely a year old, and only now starting to slowly not go down -so fast-, and we’re scratching our heads “is it over ?”
But when you put 2 and 2 together and look at the UNPRECEDENTED amount of actions taken by not only the Fed (hat Saint Louis chart that shoots up), but Wall street too (Bank Holdings, “shotgun mergers” etc), AND individuals (saving rate finally going up, thrift…) since half of the downturn, and there is no effect, I mean we know that the Fed is boosting the Banks Mark-to-make-believe balance sheet, NOT our economy, as in mine or yours.
No real effect whatsoever. Bankster hoard cash or expand if they can do while sticking the risk to J6P.
So we’re still going down. Slower only for the lack of bad news, mind you. The fundamentals are horrid, rising unemployment is just going to choke any recovery, unless they can start a brand new market from scratch that does not depend on the consumer like 70% of the economy does.

We’re not even close to have started to really go down is what I say. There will be social unrest. There will probably be wars too I fear. The overcapacity in Humans needs fixing, that’s all. Too many “me-first” ant-like Humans on this lonely speck of dust spinning in the vast and cold, unfriendly universe, going about their business and theirs alone, missing the Big Picture…..

Here is a blow to your perception: We call our planet “Earth”, yet it’s surface is 71% water. How could we even pretend that we look at things correctly ?

\ shaped I say

I’ll repeat it one more time; DOW 3000.

Have a great week end. We’ll see you next week.

By: stonehouse

stonehouse — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 03:10:43 +0000

I am not so sure the poor conceptualization of time is a human failing so much as a western difference. I recall many years ago having dinner with a chinese business relationship in Beijing. During dinner we spoke of families and home life. He told me about his grandmother and how she was revered in the family. When I asked if she lived with them his answer told me I was dealing with a different concept of time in China. “uh, no, she died 50 years ago.”

Much like the Paris negotiations during the Vietnam war. The US delegation had return tickets. The Vietnamese negotiators had bought a house.

Settling in for the L.

By: Mark E Hoffer

Mark E Hoffer — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:30:46 +0000

“…aka workers) have had no income growth in at least 8 years.”

these ‘echo-chamber’ (D)s are hiliarous..

try some *Reality–the US Worker is earning the same amount as he/she was in the early ’70s

if they had any discenible increase in pay for 27 of those ~35 years, things, today, would be markedly different..

By: DeDude

DeDude — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:23:54 +0000

If a severe ressesion cuts 10% from the GDP and it is followed by a slow growth with a 1% GDP increase per year, it will take almost a decade of “economic growth” before you are back to where it all started. That is what happens when you talk about % changes rather than absolute numbers. It makes the word “recovery” so much easier to say .

I sure hope there is some reality to this turning around. The “tax” on my 401K from the GOP “deregulate-and-close-your-eyes” policies, cost me more than all the income taxes I payed in the past 5 years combined. “The party of taxcuts” my pink little a$$ and give me another beer – its Friday.

By: willid3

willid3 — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 19:32:08 +0000

I think we will have an L. but only because the consumer (aka workers) have had no income growth in at least 8 years. I sort of understand why some are saying we have bottomed out, because as long as the consumer keeps their wallets closed, there will be no recovery. ever. problem is that same consumer is topped out and can’t do any thing. cause their incomes are just able to pay their bills today. so even if you could make the consumer not so gloomy, it will do no good. and they are under so much of a threat today of job loss or income cuts, they have no way of judging what is reasonable any more

By: Stuart

Stuart — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:23:38 +0000

Gold is an asset class like any other. I do also consider it currency and note it trades through the currency desks. There’s a time to buy it and related stocks and a time not too. I think this is definitely a time to accumulate and have been doing so since 2003 (metal and stocks) and looking at my overall portfolio balance and elated I made that call. 2003 was after I read a report by David Walker and concluded Govt debt default was imminent, and loss of confidence in the currency was therefore imminent. Of a sort of side interest has been an almost neurotic, obsessive attempt to discredit purchases by sooooo many, yet when I ask, they don’t really know. The exact polar opposite sentiment to goldbug of buy under any condition. I guess that is why most people lose money in the markets. When I overlay gold to the markets, particularly bank stocks, it’s immediately obvious gold is anti-bank. If you believe banks are safe, what’s the point of holding Au. If you think banks are worsening, accumulate Au on pullbacks and keep an eye to the longer term would be my advice.

By: johnbougearel

johnbougearel — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:21:19 +0000

The “L” is Dead, Long Live the “L”
ha-ha!

By: Mike in Nola

Mike in Nola — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:07:52 +0000

Stuart: Not saying that gold will not be good in the long run, but the short term Weimar fears are really groundless. It’s the long term Weimar fears that are more realistic, but that’s at least a couple of years away. I plan to buy on the dip after it drops enough. Don’t know if I can tell the wife; she associates buying gold with the crazies.

By: Stuart

Stuart — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:05:49 +0000

Here’s a sample of a green shoot…. Unbelievable. Shitibank, while arguing against MTM because of the illiquid nature of many of the assets they hold, they still use it to mark down their own debt because it just happens to be to their advantage. Jesus frickin’ Murphy…..

By: franklin411

franklin411 — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:01:12 +0000

@Leftback:
Which would you choose, if you were as wealthy as I (Lloyd):

Option 1: Troll blogs

Option 2: Supermodel Superparty