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	<title>Comments on: Look Out Below ?</title>
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	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: dead hobo</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165992</link>
		<dc:creator>dead hobo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 18:17:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165992</guid>
		<description>mannwich,

Copper is still in free fall. So much for the miracle economy of China and it&#039;s impending super expansion.

I suspect the market will dilly dally around daily and close a little lower on most days for the next several days.  Too many people have bought into the fantasy to accept that they might have been a wee bit early, especially if they bought last week. Imagine a crack in a dam, with a little spurt and a couple of dribbles now, but a big assed mountain of water on the other side yearning to be free. Plus, whoever is managing the futures and indexes won&#039;t let the last available dollars get away too easily.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>mannwich,</p>
<p>Copper is still in free fall. So much for the miracle economy of China and it&#8217;s impending super expansion.</p>
<p>I suspect the market will dilly dally around daily and close a little lower on most days for the next several days.  Too many people have bought into the fantasy to accept that they might have been a wee bit early, especially if they bought last week. Imagine a crack in a dam, with a little spurt and a couple of dribbles now, but a big assed mountain of water on the other side yearning to be free. Plus, whoever is managing the futures and indexes won&#8217;t let the last available dollars get away too easily.</p>
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		<title>By: Mannwich</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165974</link>
		<dc:creator>Mannwich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:40:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165974</guid>
		<description>@constant:  I have no clue but my best guess would be weeks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@constant:  I have no clue but my best guess would be weeks.</p>
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		<title>By: ironman</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165968</link>
		<dc:creator>ironman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:30:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165968</guid>
		<description>Mannwich wrote:

&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;i&gt;Same as yesterday. I think AT’s (and karen) onto something - the market just wants to ignore bad news and grab onto the silver linings (e.g. today’s consumer confidence number) move higher right now. This could go on for quite a while, I’m guessing.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Not necessarily.  Perhaps the stock market is right &lt;a href=&quot;http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/04/where-it-ought-to-be.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;where it ought to be&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mannwich wrote:</p>
<blockquote><p><i>Same as yesterday. I think AT’s (and karen) onto something &#8211; the market just wants to ignore bad news and grab onto the silver linings (e.g. today’s consumer confidence number) move higher right now. This could go on for quite a while, I’m guessing.</i></p></blockquote>
<p>Not necessarily.  Perhaps the stock market is right <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/04/where-it-ought-to-be.html" rel="nofollow">where it ought to be</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: usphoenix</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165938</link>
		<dc:creator>usphoenix</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:21:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165938</guid>
		<description>@Dead Hobo:  &quot;The economy is a bag lady with wet Depends. &quot; 

 Very good one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Dead Hobo:  &#8220;The economy is a bag lady with wet Depends. &#8221; </p>
<p> Very good one.</p>
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		<title>By: constantnormal</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165928</link>
		<dc:creator>constantnormal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:09:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165928</guid>
		<description>@ Mannwich 10:04 --

   &quot;This could go on for quite a while, I’m guessing.&quot;

Please to define &quot;quite a while&quot; -- days, weeks, months or years?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Mannwich 10:04 &#8211;</p>
<p>   &#8220;This could go on for quite a while, I’m guessing.&#8221;</p>
<p>Please to define &#8220;quite a while&#8221; &#8212; days, weeks, months or years?</p>
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		<title>By: DL</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165916</link>
		<dc:creator>DL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:51:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165916</guid>
		<description>This seems to be the pattern lately.       Futures down overnight, but then the market closes up the next day (or just slightly down).     Maybe part of the &quot;topping out&quot; process(?).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This seems to be the pattern lately.       Futures down overnight, but then the market closes up the next day (or just slightly down).     Maybe part of the &#8220;topping out&#8221; process(?).</p>
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		<title>By: ben22</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165909</link>
		<dc:creator>ben22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:34:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165909</guid>
		<description>it is still too early to say but I&#039;m thinking we are still going higher.    It wouldn&#039;t be a surprise to correct on the SP to 780-791 but it&#039;s hard to say, we would have moved higher through yesterday if not for the Swine Flu news imo.

Barron&#039;s article over the weekend showed 59% bulls but judging from the comments on this board and others as of late people are still generally skeptical and therefore the direction should be up from here and I still think the S&amp;P could go over 900 before this rally is over.  I don&#039;t think the optimism is over the top and lots of people are still skeptical and for all of you that are bears using the GD as a guide, I&#039;d think if we got a rally like there was during the GD you&#039;ll get similiar optimism to what we had Oct 2007 before the next monster leg down.

The huge leg down would probably come when even more people (more than 59%) are bullish and the govt tells us they don&#039;t need to do anything else b/c the economy is o.k. on its own.  it would also help if during that time gold went down to 680 or so, it would be more reasons for the pundits to say things are fine and if China continued along saying that GDP would be 8%.

Then.

Boom.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>it is still too early to say but I&#8217;m thinking we are still going higher.    It wouldn&#8217;t be a surprise to correct on the SP to 780-791 but it&#8217;s hard to say, we would have moved higher through yesterday if not for the Swine Flu news imo.</p>
<p>Barron&#8217;s article over the weekend showed 59% bulls but judging from the comments on this board and others as of late people are still generally skeptical and therefore the direction should be up from here and I still think the S&amp;P could go over 900 before this rally is over.  I don&#8217;t think the optimism is over the top and lots of people are still skeptical and for all of you that are bears using the GD as a guide, I&#8217;d think if we got a rally like there was during the GD you&#8217;ll get similiar optimism to what we had Oct 2007 before the next monster leg down.</p>
<p>The huge leg down would probably come when even more people (more than 59%) are bullish and the govt tells us they don&#8217;t need to do anything else b/c the economy is o.k. on its own.  it would also help if during that time gold went down to 680 or so, it would be more reasons for the pundits to say things are fine and if China continued along saying that GDP would be 8%.</p>
<p>Then.</p>
<p>Boom.</p>
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		<title>By: Stuart</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165897</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuart</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:54:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165897</guid>
		<description>Same as yesterday.  Overnight, futures get ramped down quite hard and miraculously pull up in early trading as that invisible hand shows up.   Hmmm....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Same as yesterday.  Overnight, futures get ramped down quite hard and miraculously pull up in early trading as that invisible hand shows up.   Hmmm&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: AmenRa</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165885</link>
		<dc:creator>AmenRa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:35:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165885</guid>
		<description>
This has gone on long enough! I watch them manage overnight futures (to keep them from getting out of hand) and then find a way to push the market higher during the day. I&#039;m absolutely amazed that more people have not caught on to this. 


GLD made a bullish move yesterday by having a turnaround bar in the 3LB.  Now the question is:  &quot;Can it follow through&quot;? Faith in the $USD is starting to wane.  Other countries have been reducing their purchases of treasuries.  Eventually the only bidder at the auction will be the Fed.

I loathe waiting for trends to develop but it seems to be much safer during these volatile times.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This has gone on long enough! I watch them manage overnight futures (to keep them from getting out of hand) and then find a way to push the market higher during the day. I&#8217;m absolutely amazed that more people have not caught on to this. </p>
<p>GLD made a bullish move yesterday by having a turnaround bar in the 3LB.  Now the question is:  &#8220;Can it follow through&#8221;? Faith in the $USD is starting to wane.  Other countries have been reducing their purchases of treasuries.  Eventually the only bidder at the auction will be the Fed.</p>
<p>I loathe waiting for trends to develop but it seems to be much safer during these volatile times.</p>
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		<title>By: Mannwich</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/lookout-below/comment-page-1/#comment-165868</link>
		<dc:creator>Mannwich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:04:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24935#comment-165868</guid>
		<description>Same as yesterday.  I think AT&#039;s (and karen) onto something - the market just wants to ignore bad news and grab onto the silver linings (e.g. today&#039;s consumer confidence number) move higher right now.  This could go on for quite a while, I&#039;m guessing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Same as yesterday.  I think AT&#8217;s (and karen) onto something &#8211; the market just wants to ignore bad news and grab onto the silver linings (e.g. today&#8217;s consumer confidence number) move higher right now.  This could go on for quite a while, I&#8217;m guessing.</p>
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