NFP Falls 663k

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By Barry Ritholtz - April 3rd, 2009, 9:32AM

BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline sharply in March (-663,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession
began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, with almost two-thirds (3.3 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 5 months. In March, job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data) In March, the number of unemployed persons increased by 694,000 to 13.2 million, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.5 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has grown by about 5.3 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 3.4 percentage points. Half of the increase in both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate occurred in the last 4 months.

Ouch.

That is, as expected, an ugly number. Let’s look under the hood to see exactly how nasty it was:

• The decline in January was was revised to minus 741k. It was the largest peacetime fall in Employment in raw numbers; Only the post WWII declines were larger — 834,000 1949, and an astounding loss of ~two million jobs in 1945 — were, according to the WSJ, one-time events, including a large coal and steel strike and by the end of World War II.

• However, the 1949 data was when the the population was much smaller. Let’s put this into a broader context in percentage terms. Marketwatch’s Rex Nutting notes that over “the past six months, 3.7 million jobs have been lost, or 2.7%, the second-largest percentage loss in 50 years.” Yes, its been that ugly.

• The Birth/Death adjustment, everyone’s least favorite statistical adjustment, suggested that birth/death model the economy added an implausible 114k new jobs;

• U6 Total Unemployed, the broadest measure of labor underutilization, ticked up to 15.6% (16.2% NSA);

• Downward revision to the prior two months were -86k;

• Every major category except education and health shed jobs.

Earlier this morning, I noted that although NFP lags the economic cycle, there are components of the Employment data that lead the economy. Let’s take a quick look at these elements:

• Total hours worked fell by 1%. Often times, employers who are trying to hold onto their best employees will cut overtime and hours in order to avoid layoffs. As of this month, the average workweek fell to 33.2 hours, the lowest on record dating back to 1964.

• Temporary help services lost 72k workers. This suggests that the bottom of the recession is not yet in, and that further contractioin is likely.

• Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% m/m. That is in line with the prior trend. Average weekly earnings dipped 0.14%, likely following the slight loss in total hours worked.

>

March 2009 NonFarm Payrolls

chart courtesy of Barron’s Econoday

>
Sources:
Employment Situation

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

Job losses breach 5 million mark
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch, April 3, 2009

http://tinyurl.com/cmgfze

Recession Jobs Losses Top 5 Million
BRIAN BLACKSTONE
WSJ, April 3, 2009

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123876121625986405.html

54 Responses to “NFP Falls 663k”

  1. leftback Says:

    No worries though, all those unemployed can find work mowing lawns or Hedge Trimming™.

  2. cjcpa Says:

    haha.

    btw, our giddiness of prior trade was wiped out by volatility and hitting the stop.
    Thinking about getting into a short again. Weighing that against the lost productivity of watching the market all day instead of doing work.

  3. albnyc Says:

    These numbers are truly astounding in their depth and breadth. But… given the near total collapse in the financial markets and economy last fall and early winter, should we realistically expect some other outcome? By nearly every indicator that’s available, nearly all commerce and markets froze in fear for nearly 5 months. I am not trying to paper over the chasms (these are not mere cracks) … but could the markets now be indicating that some equilibrium is returning?

  4. leftback Says:

    Market looks like a snoozer today. Currencies are fairly flat.
    How come the NAZ and QID are both down? Steve Barry must be going bananas.

    Time to catch up on writing my book: How to Spot a Bear Bottom. (Schadenfreude Press: NY, NY)

  5. cjcpa Says:

    as commented by others, earlier, this is a traders market. I am not a trader… and from the postings I can see that many of you spend a lot of time, as in full time job…

    I see some of the moves on the ETFs of the last six months, and it looks compelling, but I think it requires way more time than I am able to commit.

    What keeps bringing me back to the idea of trading is the concept of making money as opposed to the yield on a short term treasury money market: quite low. Where I parked my money in 08.

    Btw Thanks to Barry for having The Trillion Dollar Meltdown recommended on the sidebar last year. That saved me a lot of money.
    as to making money….. still searching.

    :)

    (For you sentiment buffs, it is really crappy weather in the NE today. )

  6. dead hobo Says:

    So, if you spend a good part of your day here, are you unemployed, underemployed, a volunteer, just wasting time, making the world a better place, talking your book, socially troubled, lost, bored, or curious?

  7. cjcpa Says:

    Legal professional.
    50 minutes of work, 10 minutes of internet, repeat.
    all day.

    train wrecks alter this schedule.

  8. jc Says:

    cjcpa are you a cpa? I am jccpa…

    crappy weather at the jersey shore too!

  9. leftback Says:

    ISM Services was lousy.

    Business is weak at Nails-4-U on Madison. Another pillar of the US economy is crumbling.
    Yes, and the weather is lousy in NYC as well. Sell ‘em, boys….

  10. Mark E Hoffer Says:

    BR,

    these ‘unemployment’ posts are really well done.

    reminds me that you can handle my Voir Dire, anytime~

    this: “employers who are trying to hold onto their best employees will cut overtime and hours in order to avoid layoffs.” is a lot larger phenomenon that many suspect, if this ‘downturn’ continues for another 6 months, we could this: ““the past six months, 3.7 million jobs have been lost, or 2.7%, the second-largest percentage loss in 50 years.” Yes, its been that ugly.” –all over again..

    ~~

    cjcpa,

    re: Weather, the Birds seem to like it, nonetheless..and, if you’ve been to Scotland, it may be thought reminiscent thereof..

  11. franklin411 Says:

    Lefty,
    If the US economy is crumbling, then why would Rep. Boner propose rescinding the stimulus? He’s a sincere, conscientious guy, right?

  12. cjcpa Says:

    no i’m in the state of PA.
    could be cjc.esq not a lot of imagination in my tag.
    back to my own salt mine.

    cjc

  13. leftback Says:

    Boner and Cantor. The Young Guns, they remind me of the really stupid rich kids at school.
    The ones who copied my math homework just before class. Obviously, it cost them dearly…

  14. jc Says:

    These job losses are cumulative so each month 600-700K consumers go into hunker down mode. So many homes require two incomes to meet expenses and so many homes are substantially underwater, Martin Feldman said 1/3 of homes are underwater to some extent. Just looking at the Big Picture, I can’t see housing stabilizing in this environment. Mortgage counseling and below market interest rates won’t touch people underwater or out of work.

    I think there will be an unprecedented explosion of jingle mail in the non-recourse bubble states, the actions that have been taken were too little and too late and there’s too much downward momentum to stop this cycle.

    More unemployment -> more defaults -> more foreclosures -> continued falling home prices -> bigger bank losses -> more bank bailouts.

  15. Mark E Hoffer Says:

    jc,

    to your point, see: “Max Keiser: they (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, et al.) are systematically undermining the entire system. They are creating a mechanism to carve out equity and capital for themselves at the expense of society at large.

    So in the United States, unemployment is skyrocketing. The uninsured is skyrocketing. The social fabric is coming unglued. You have riots all over the world, in Iceland and other countries due to this financial terrorism that was pre-meditated, on purpose and should be addressed as such.

    There is a double standard. Why is the US pursuing so-called terrorists in nations like Afghanistan when they let these guys roam free on Wall Street? They’re the worst criminals of all, they do far more damage.

    Interviewer: Let’s leave Afghanistan out of this…

    Max Keiser: But why? It’s a great source of poppy and heroin which fuels a lot of these bankers bonuses. Let’s be frank about that.

    More: http://www.maxkeiser.com
    http://cryptogon.com/?p=7796

    the real Question is: “What are we going to do about it?” Hope harder? Wait, longer, for Change?

    or, really, are we going to reset this mess so that productive activity can, you know, for a Change, accrue to all of our accounts?

  16. leftback Says:

    jc says: “Just looking at the Big Picture, I can’t see housing stabilizing in this environment”

    I agree. If you look at CT, the housing market in the lower income towns cratered long ago, but the process is only just beginning in the rest of Fraudfield County – the places where the SUV-driving two-income financial/service economy families are living with the monster mortgage. Things are not looking rosy on Prime Street.

  17. Mannwich Says:

    9 Million Part-time workers? Part-time = quasi-unemployed. Let’s face it, most part-time jobs don’t pay very well.

  18. leftback Says:

    What’s wrong with you, Mannwich? You pinko.
    Part-time Job + no money down = a Hummer and McMansion. This is America!

  19. danm Says:

    More unemployment -> more defaults -> more foreclosures -> continued falling home prices -> bigger bank losses -> more bank bailouts
    —————-

    More need help with debt load:

    http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090403.wrtd03/GIStory/

    And Real Estate has JUST started to get hit in Canada.

  20. tCA Says:

    Effing work, today is first day for blocking i-net radio/TV. No more B’berg radio, instead will be forced to watch the dept TV showing Michelle C.C.’s double C’s. Now, I’ll have to spend 50 minutes here and 10 minutes pretending to do real work. Can someone get me a sam’ich?

    Why wasn’t Hank Greenberg’s congressional testimony covered more? With comments like the ones in the link below, I think it’s telling how the politics (national & international) will get in the way of any meaningful long-term recovery for awhile. Here’s the link:
    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/04/023233.php

  21. dead hobo Says:

    Mark E Hoffer Said:
    April 3rd, 2009 at 10:39 am

    So in the United States, unemployment is skyrocketing. The uninsured is skyrocketing. The social fabric is coming unglued. You have riots all over the world, in Iceland and other countries …

    reply:
    ———–
    So far, the downturn in the 1980’s seemed a little worse. I remember traveling discounters that rented warehouse space for weekend clothing sales from distressed merchandisers. With respect to entertainment, you had movies with a permanent underclass, such as RoboCop, MadMax, and many others. They had appeal because the social structure only looked a couple of steps off of current day events. We had the beginnings of our militia movements then, where people bought guns and were afraid of Uncle Sam and intrusive government and/or to protect themselves from waves of unwashed coming for what they owned. At a certain level, the road to complete despair looked plausible. I don’t think were at that point again, yet.

  22. MRegan Says:

    LB-
    Exactly, things happen in varying time frames. As the vig those two-income couples receive as salary dries up, systems start to seize up as well. Price discovery, it doesn’t respect one’s sense of self-worth.

    These are the wages of sin (sin against capital that is).

    OT: Something extremely cool.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/apr/02/eureka-laws-nature-artificial-intelligence-ai

    Looking at Ford I think I can cancel my commiseration lunch with ole Rick Wagoner at the Red Fox on Telegraph. As forewarning, if Ford doubles, I will become insufferable. Full of myself, hell, I’ll probably move to Connecticut and sneer at all no-assed apátridas and their spindly legs.

  23. Mannwich Says:

    @dead hobo: I think that’s largely because now we have the APPEARANCE of prosperity due to stuff accumulated via easy credit. It’s all smoke & mirrors. Strip away the access to easy credit, and it’s far worse than the early ’80s IMO.

  24. Mannwich Says:

    @dh: I would also add that unfortunately the rest of the U.S. (aside from Banks) don’t get to mark their own personal balance sheets to model. They may have all the toys in the yard and food to eat, but those bills behind the curtain tell a different and likely ghastly story of debt slavery. Not a pretty picture.

  25. dead hobo Says:

    Mannwich Said:
    April 3rd, 2009 at 11:04 am

    @dh: I would also add that unfortunately the rest of the U.S. (aside from Banks) don’t get to mark their own personal balance sheets to model. They may have all the toys in the yard and food to eat, but those bills behind the curtain tell a different and likely ghastly story of debt slavery. Not a pretty picture.

    reply:
    —————
    OK, So there might be a little total despair starting to peek through. What else have you got?

  26. HCF Says:

    I’m thinking that nearly every economist states that “unemployment is near the peak.” What happens if April comes in WORST than March. Maybe they’ll start saying that unemployment is in a “peaking process” in the same way that the market is in a “bottoming process.” =)

    HCF

  27. rpickard Says:

    As someone pointed out earlier, the numbers could get really ugly in May, when all the teachers that are being laid off hit the unemployment lines. In anecdotal conversations with young teachers that have received termination notices, they are in panic mode, as the job market for teachers is awful. Beware of this suckers rally.

  28. dead hobo Says:

    Mannwich,

    Other than the Mormons, if you hear of people starting to stock a year’s worth of food in the basement, then we will have troubles to deal with. I remember that, too. The social fabric hasn’t been destroyed. Maybe this will appear in the April statistics.

  29. Mannwich Says:

    On another note – I just came up with a way to promote mass executive perp walks – we just need to totally privatize the justice system like they did in PA. Just have judges get kickbacks to put the execs in prison en masse. That should work in this rotten culture of ours. That really motivated the judges in PA to put away juvenile offenders at impressively high rates. Why wouldn’t it work with the execs? Oh yeah, our execs would just pay off the judges. Nevermind.

  30. Mannwich Says:

    @dead hobo: Not saying social fabric is destroyed YET but it is fraying rapidly around the edges.

  31. Transor Z Says:

    @MEH:
    FYI, Ended up with V. Martinez and Kelly Shoppach at C.

    Ianetta was still available late but I had other needs to fill… like a SS.

    Took Joba early to much disapproval. 6 x 6 H2H. I project to finish #1 roto-wise, but we’ll see…

  32. jc Says:

    Toxic plan “just laughable” BR, 110% US bailout, Stiglitz. As taxpayers we will be crying not laughing, we will be paying for this forever, at least

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aylbeokVZaWo&refer=us

  33. Mark E Hoffer Says:

    “I remember traveling discounters that rented warehouse space for weekend clothing sales from distressed merchandisers.”–dh

    see: http://readingeagle.com/article.aspx?id=131631

    “Many bargain hunters these days are trading supermarket aisles for the auction circuit in search of deep discounts on everything from cereal to spare ribs.

    The sales operate like regular auctions, but with bidders vying for dry goods and frozen foods instead of antiques and collectibles. Some auctioneers even accept food stamps.

    When Kirk Williams held his first grocery auction in rural Pennsylvania last month, nearly 300 people showed up. Astonished by the turnout, he’s scheduling auctions at locations throughout northeastern Pennsylvania.

    “Right now, people don’t have a lot of spare pocket change,” said Williams, 50, operator of Col. Kirk’s Auction Gallery near Bloomsburg. “They’re looking to save money.”"
    ~~

    and this type: “The Super Computer Sale is now part of the Liquidation Expo. These two events have combined to give you a larger variety of products. To learn more about all the different products being sold at up to 80% off click here.”
    http://www.supercomputersale.com/

    has been a staple of the ‘retail’ landscape for years..
    ~~

    btw, you may need to start ridin’ the rails again, things change, you know..

  34. Mark E Hoffer Says:

    @Transor,

    Joba, if he can stay on the hill, will have ~23 wins

    past that, re: roto-leagues, other than they’re a multi-Billion U$D Industry, I have no clue~

    this: 6 x 6 H2H is Greek, to me

    though, keep an peeled for the Braves, and pitching, or no, short the Bostonians..

  35. Mannwich Says:

    @Hoffer and Transor: Joba will be end up on the DL at least twice this year with arm/shoulder problems. Mark it down. He should be in the bullpen.

    Full disclosure: I’m a big Red Sox fan, so I AM talking my MLB “book”.

  36. leftback Says:

    No idea what you chaps are talking about – it’s still raining in St. Lucia and the cricket is delayed.

  37. Mannwich Says:

    @leftback: Any Sir Allen Stanford sightings there? Tell him we said “hello”.

  38. krice2001 Says:

    Who cares about NFP? I’m planning to take advantage of the new “Mark to Market” rules the accounting standards board just approved. Using this rule, I’ve now determined my house is worth $50 million and my car over $10 million! I’m really excited. Let the champagne flow! Parrrrtaaay!!!

    Oh… wait… what…? Only the big banks are allowed to do that? Oh… never mind. Check that, party cancelled. Oh… Oh, I get it, you can only make up fantasy prices for assets which have NO market value.

  39. David A. Rosenberg Says:

    Increasing amount of slack in the labor market

    So, as bad as it is to see the unemployment rate hit 8.5%, up from 8.1% in February and 7.6% in January, the degree of slack in the labor market is far greater than that when you consider that we have a surge in the number of people working part-time against their will.

    Indeed, those working part-time due to “economic conditions” rose 423,000 in March to over 9 million for the very first time, and up a record 83% on a year-to-year basis. Tack this ‘underemployment’ statistic to others who aren’t officially counted in the labor market but would gladly take a job if one was offered, and we actually have an unemployment rate (U-6 measure) of 15.6%. That is up from 14.8% in February and now at a new all-time high. And, as sign of how tough it is for the unemployed to find a job, the share without work for longer than 15 weeks has risen to 43.5% (up from 41.7% in February and 39.2% in January) to a new all-time high.

  40. Mark E Hoffer Says:

    BR,

    nice post. this ‘problem’, of unemployment, will not be fixed anytime soon, longer, if we allow 44, et al. to continue to paralyze us with the ol’ palaver..

  41. constantnormal Says:

    Just some thoughts pursuant to the general theme of the spiral of unemployment and business decline …

    Last time I checked, Chrysler represented about 55K near-six-figure incomes, and I don’t know how many similarly-sized incomes are represented by Saturn (which is almost certainly destined for extinction this calendar year, IMHO). I just got back from a week (give or take) in NC and TN, and while NC is 3rd-highest among the states in percent unemployed (MI is obviously 1st, with SC 2nd), it is not apparent that there is a lot of suffering going on there — yet. (note to the concerned: I am not a ghoul looking for tragedy, just trying to align the picture of 10+% unemployed (and who-knows how many juggling multiple part-time jobs trying to stave off bankruptcy) with the picture of a happily functioning state economy

    What will the happytalk folks say this summer, when the monthly unemployment numbers pass 800K and the national unemployment rate approaches 10%? Undoubtedly, Prosperity is Just Around the Corner. Or maybe “the market always turns up before the economy does”.

    My point is, we have several good-sized rocks that are going to be plopped into the pond over the coming months, and I don’t believe that the delusionals out there are expecting the obvious consequences. Plus, there is the also-obvious problem of a growing number of states that are running out of money, with no tax revenue from corporations or the growing body of unemployed. And I remain confident that we will see at some point a bunch of annuities, insurance companies, and pension funds display signs of severe distress, with some of them going belly up.

    Oh yeah, the bottom is in. Nothing but clear skies above — way, WAY above and getting farther away all the time.

    I’m guilty as charged, an unrepentant pessimist — but willing to be converted to optimism by any rational argument (other than “stocks have fallen so far, they have to go up”).

    I just finished reading Galbraith’s The Great Crash – 1929. The parallels between then and now are certainly striking, with abundant happytalk from the banksters and gummint and many rounds of bottom-calling. But in the end, there old Economy was simply too large to fit the new Reality, and all the King’s horses, etc were unable to keep it filled by talking. Happytalk is a poor substitute for production and consumption, and in an economy choking to death on debt, it seems unlikely that additional trillions of debt will make things better.

  42. Mark E Hoffer Says:

    make that: DR..

  43. leftback Says:

    Excellent discussion on the neglected issue of long-term “under-employment”. Thanks to DR.
    Constant is right. No-one knows what a pension fund or muni meltdown looks like.

    Happy talk increasing in the media. They were all negative on March 9, by the way, even Larry K.
    We’re going down.

    @Mannwich: Sir Allen Stanford was indisposed. But the Swedish twins are here for the weekend, although their knowledge of cricket is limited and most of their clothes have failed to arrive. No problem, mon!

  44. Scott F Says:

    OMG, Dennis Kneale is such a tool!

    He got the lagging indicator part exactly backwards.

    I feel like I have to have CNBC on in the office (I run a hedge fund) but why do they have to be so infuriatingly stupid?!?

  45. leftback Says:

    @Scott: Dennis Kneale should become a Special Assistant to Rep. Bwarney Fwank. Complementarity.

  46. GoNavy Says:

    LB:

    Do you find it difficult to advance otherwise sound arguments using the terminology you’ve chosen? For example:

    “Please listen to me while I [explain this really good idea] about those f’ing loser a**holes in Fraudfield County”.

    Admittedly I struggled with that in the past, and eventually learned that people will read what you write if you’re a little more clear headed about not revealing overt biases in your posts.

  47. Transor Z Says:

    On topic: Boy this unemployment is really awful. Thanks for the post, Barry.

    OT:
    @ MEH:

    6×6 H2H means a head-to-head fantasy league with six offensive and six defensive categories.

    @ Leftback: If you are seriously posting from St. Lucia, you need to throw your laptop or crackberry in the water pronto.

    @Mannwich: Being a “homer” (i.e., allowing favorite team sentiment to get the best of you) is fatal in fantasy leagues. Every now and then you just have to hold your nose and pick up a Yankee.

  48. Mannwich Says:

    @Transor: I hear you. That’s why I don’t do fantasy baseball but I do play fantasy football.

    If I played fantasy baseball, I would play it more objectively. No doubt about that.

  49. leftback Says:

    @GoNavy: Not really. I just call ‘em as I see ‘em, pal. Sorry if we rattled your cage there, old sport. Financial meltdown getting you down a bit?

    I think that those familiar with LB are aware that most of our comments concerning Fraudfield County and its delightfully conspicuous consumers are posted with more than a degree of affection and a healthy dollop of irony. For an even more rollicking and rambunctious portrayal, you could read the Naked Shorts site, or open your eyes and see real life, for that matter.

    After all, it’s not as if everyone in Darien, Greenrich and New Canaan spends all day having new marble counter-tops installed in the dog’s kennel while shorting Spain and leveraging crude oil to the moon so that grandma can’t afford to heat the house in winter. Indeed, there is much to love and admire in The Nutmeg State and many good people living Between the Hedges.

  50. dead hobo Says:

    GoNavy Says:
    April 3rd, 2009 at 1:19 pm

    LB:

    Do you find it difficult to advance otherwise sound arguments using the terminology you’ve chosen? For example:

    “Please listen to me while I [explain this really good idea] about those f’ing loser a**holes in Fraudfield County”.

    reply:
    ——————-
    It’s hard to swear well. Most people just cuss, although on Deadwood it made a good drinking game. Rickard Pryor turned swearing into poetry. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a good rant that involves filthy language if it’s done with passion and eloquence. Every now and then, someone adds a new word to my vocabulary and increases my word power. Don’t be a prude or a tightass.

  51. H.T. Says:

    Good point out by BR–

    employment lags with the exception of temps–they’ll bounce with any whiff of demand recovery. Didn’t happen.

    Plus, i always point to debt– check out St Louis Fed’s data. Corporate debt yields going higher [all those those debt deals done last 6 months were likely battening hatches and shoring up balance sheets to avoid need for short term credit lines-- a fake out i believe for the bullish case]

    yet, the market moves higher it seems: the H.T. three phases fro bounce: 1. speculative money in first; 2. lemming PM’s [portfolio managers] next; 3. Joe six pack [that # 1 sells to, and #2 gets on and talks their book on CNBC as long as possible to get out with a few %'s] But then there’s always Keynes’ famous quote…

  52. leftback Says:

    @H.T. Nice one. I took a look at the credit markets this week and did a lot of selling.

    I was #1 in the rally this time and I didn’t even wait for #3 to climb on board this time before leaving.
    And yet, the rally continues. Playing small for now.

  53. FrancoisT Says:

    “More unemployment -> more defaults -> more foreclosures -> continued falling home prices -> bigger bank losses -> more bank bailouts”

    Apart from getting serious about the financial sector, something that might take another 10 years like in Japan, the only other alternative we’ve got is to resolutely invest in domestic production of high growth potential ventures like wind energy (already going strong) battery technology, solar and cheap ways to recycle CO2. Retrofiting our buildings and rebuilding our infrastructure should be high on our list too.

    Alas, instead of systematically calling out the stupidity of the Republiscums and Blue Dogs in Congress, (show me a tax cut that will produce jobs WHEN THERE IS NO CREDIT AVAILABLE), Obama has decided to cut the pear in two and play realpolitik.

    With such an absence of consensus and leadership, we’re not out of the woods yet, not by a long shot.

  54. Winston Munn Says:

    Hey, Mr. Tallyman tally me bananas…..well, what other jobs are available in a Banana Republic?