Comments on: NFP: Understanding the Lag http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 17:38:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: marc http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159606 marc Sat, 04 Apr 2009 11:33:32 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159606 test test

]]> By: rdhall3637 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159420 rdhall3637 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 16:05:31 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159420 Very wrong for anyone to say the word "stabalization", including the President, with regards to job losses and the economy. Stable means "not getting worse". A stable chart has a line that is flat across the chart, from left to right. Until we see job losses offset my job gains, and the net is zero, we don't have anything stable. And you can't move toward stable until at the very least the number of losses begins to decrease each month toward zero. Obama says that the "patient is stable"??? Well, if I go to the ER, and after treatment the doc tells my family, "He's stable, but he's still getting worse, but he's not getting worse as fast as he was when he got here."???? Do you think my family would take that as good news?? C'mon, who is he kidding. This kind of "spinning to the point of lying" should not be ignored. Very wrong for anyone to say the word “stabalization”, including the President, with regards to job losses and the economy. Stable means “not getting worse”. A stable chart has a line that is flat across the chart, from left to right. Until we see job losses offset my job gains, and the net is zero, we don’t have anything stable. And you can’t move toward stable until at the very least the number of losses begins to decrease each month toward zero. Obama says that the “patient is stable”??? Well, if I go to the ER, and after treatment the doc tells my family, “He’s stable, but he’s still getting worse, but he’s not getting worse as fast as he was when he got here.”???? Do you think my family would take that as good news?? C’mon, who is he kidding. This kind of “spinning to the point of lying” should not be ignored.

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159382 Mark E Hoffer Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:26:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159382 speaking of: "A 25% U-6 means we are going to have one or more long hot summers. Very hot. The problem the CNBC ‘presentards’ don’t see is: “Where are the new jobs going to come from?”"--lb these two clips are worth watching: http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/026165.html http://cryptogon.com/?p=7796 speaking of: “A 25% U-6 means we are going to have one or more long hot summers. Very hot.

The problem the CNBC ‘presentards’ don’t see is: “Where are the new jobs going to come from?””–lb

these two clips are worth watching:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/026165.html
http://cryptogon.com/?p=7796

]]> By: Stuart http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159375 Stuart Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:11:36 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159375 Chief, thanks. I love those interactive maps. Great stuff. Chief, thanks. I love those interactive maps. Great stuff.

]]> By: Froglips http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159372 Froglips Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:08:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159372 Let's not forget about the uncounted "grey" workforce. I mean all the Latinos out of work or that went back home and if I recall correctly, not long ago I read an article about the returning population causing concern in their respective home countries. I would love to see those numbers.... Let’s not forget about the uncounted “grey” workforce.
I mean all the Latinos out of work or that went back home and if I recall correctly, not long ago I read an article about the returning population causing concern in their respective home countries.
I would love to see those numbers….

]]> By: HCF http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159365 HCF Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:46:48 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159365 @Mannwich: I think this is the BLS strategy: No revision or minor revision the month after, then BIG revision two months after. The 741k January 2009 revision from 655k is TERRIBLE, but all the talking heads can just dismiss it as "being in the past." I wouldn't be surprised if Feb. is revised up quite a bit next month... HCF @Mannwich:

I think this is the BLS strategy: No revision or minor revision the month after, then BIG revision two months after. The 741k January 2009 revision from 655k is TERRIBLE, but all the talking heads can just dismiss it as “being in the past.” I wouldn’t be surprised if Feb. is revised up quite a bit next month…

HCF

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159362 Mannwich Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:36:36 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159362 Just gotta love the continual revisions UP months down the road for prior months. How convenient. Based on this trend, why shouldn't we think that March's numbers aren't closer to 700K or even 800K? Just gotta love the continual revisions UP months down the road for prior months. How convenient. Based on this trend, why shouldn’t we think that March’s numbers aren’t closer to 700K or even 800K?

]]> By: Chief Tomahawk http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159360 Chief Tomahawk Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:31:33 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159360 Thanks, Stuart. I am now on negative time this morning. But here is an interactive map from The Economist. Make sure to click on the map to explore "Econoland". http://www.economist.com:80/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13395767&source=features_box_main ~~~ <B>BR</b>: I already have that scheduled for my Friday afternoon fun post ! Thanks, Stuart. I am now on negative time this morning.

But here is an interactive map from The Economist. Make sure to click on the map to explore “Econoland”.

http://www.economist.com:80/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13395767&source=features_box_main

~~~

BR: I already have that scheduled for my Friday afternoon fun post !

]]> By: HCF http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159359 HCF Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:31:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159359 @leftback: >“Where are the new jobs going to come from?” Obviously from a healthy combination of high leverage, money printing, and smoke and mirrors, DUH! lol... HCF @leftback:
>“Where are the new jobs going to come from?”

Obviously from a healthy combination of high leverage, money printing, and smoke and mirrors, DUH!
lol…

HCF

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/nfp-understanding-the-lag/comment-page-1/#comment-159358 leftback Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:28:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=23060#comment-159358 A 25% U-6 means we are going to have one or more long hot summers. Very hot. The problem the CNBC 'presentards' don't see is: "Where are the new jobs going to come from?" A 25% U-6 means we are going to have one or more long hot summers. Very hot.

The problem the CNBC ‘presentards’ don’t see is: “Where are the new jobs going to come from?”

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