Comments on: Peek-A-Boo

By: Todd

Todd — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 17:53:33 +0000

FASB’s days are already numbered. Everything is going towards IASB and IFRS.

Wasn’t the original intent of MtM to make the tech companies own up to their potential liabilities for all of the stock options they had issued.,or make it easier to track the potential impact of them. Now we are having to deal with the unintended consequences.

By: Moosedog

Moosedog — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:42:55 +0000

The pendulum swings again!! It wasn’t that long ago that there was more pressure to limit the amount of “judgment” used in MtM accounting. In truth, FASB is another scapegoat in this unraveling process… albeit a spineless one. Had the less restrictive accounting rules been in place, it would have only delayed the realization of how bad things were… While I do have issues with MtM and the growth of its application, it should be noted that it did provide a signal that “all is not well at home.”

By: Mannwich

Mannwich — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 15:50:40 +0000

This is like the old UNC Dean Smith “Four Corners” hoops delay offense before the days of the shot clock. Delay the inevitable to buy time to pump up the confidence (reflation) game again. Paper over reality. It might work for a while but it won’t end well.

By: JohnnyVee

JohnnyVee — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 15:47:53 +0000

Banks have stopped foreclosing and, therefore, they will appear healthlier than expected….but, they cannot hold a non-paying asset for long. The second half of this year and definitely next year will look terrible as this tactic only creates deaper and longer problems.

By: HCF

HCF — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 15:04:33 +0000

@Jdamon33:

>I’m still slightly overwieght the banks until after 1Q earnings at which time I plan to sell.

You hit the nail on the head… Tactically, you can trade the financials up a little bit, perhaps, but medium term, the trend is still down. Toxic is still toxic and even if buried, it will percolate back to the top.

Too bad I still have a few shares of SKF as a “legacy asset.” Perhaps I can mark them to model? I think $250 a share is fair value…

=) HCF

By: Jdamon33

Jdamon33 — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 14:33:37 +0000

I think this rally will fade out right at the 8,000 level, but I do think 1Q numbers for the large banks are going to be much better than expectations. From what I am hearing, some of these banks are prining money with all the refi’s that are going on right now. I’m still slightly overwieght the banks until after 1Q earnings at which time I plan to sell.

By: HCF

HCF — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 14:08:38 +0000

I don’t see the “good news” that the propagandists keep telling us. Thanks Peter for telling it like it is…

The markets are currently in a state where there is a triumph of hope over reality!

HCF

By: leftback

leftback — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 13:56:31 +0000

We should also point out that the strong performance in Japan is not unusual at the start of their fiscal year. New money flowing in from pension funds etc..

I am a little surprised we did not see a stronger rally after the Mark to Magic announcement. The rally is tiring fast, let’s see what the factory data look like. Expect a late sell-off in advance of the NFP number.

By: OkieLawyer

OkieLawyer — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 13:49:47 +0000

@ardano:

If bankers had even the minimal judgment of a three year old we wouldn’t be in this mess. Rather than peek-a-boo this is more like the three monkeys and see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.

How do you know it isn’t just plain evil?

By: General Glut

General Glut — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 13:45:17 +0000

Management defeats capital. Little more need be said.