Ron Griess runs The Chart Store. He always has some fabulous charts each week on the site. This one really caught my eye this weekend:
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Overall household indebtedness is up from $7 trillion to almost $10 trillion since 2000. On this sum, we estimate, the American consumer has an annual interest bill of more than $500 billion; a sum, by the way, that vastly exceeds his current income growth." —Kurt Richebacher
"The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan," said a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry. The Greeks must first have a plan that satisfies the Germans which this comment states they clearly don't yet and then the Greek Parliament will vote on it this weekend. This said, whatever package gets voted on in Greece is basically an up or down vote on euro membership so we are entering another uncertain weekend for global markets. A failed vote will likely lead to a hard default which may be what...
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April 3rd, 2009 at 2:36 pm
so . . . what’s the consensus that SPX finishes in the red today
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm
I don’t think so. Looks like the delusion continues.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:39 pm
great of you to post that chart, thanks! i’ve been too lazy to do it myself.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
So tell me again why we have seen the bottom and that a new bull market is underway?
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:46 pm
MH-
What do you think about FAZ @ 15.60- will it happen?
GFA- I think I might be moving to Brazil after they kick me out of Connecticut for teasing the local fauna.
When does earnings season start? When do we start understanding the implications of the recent G-20?
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:49 pm
my opinion- for what it’s worth- is there will be no bull market- can it bounce around 7,000 and 8,000- sure- I just don’t see what would drive the market higher any tiime in the near future. The Fed and the USG are pretty much out of silver bullets and the economy and earnings will be the reality keeping a lid on any upward movement.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
The newspapers and other headlines are aiding and abetting a pump and dump today. I suspect the buyers today are mostly those who see a line going up and think it will keep going up forever. It could go on for a while. The dumb money is chasing the rainbow. I’m taking it as a sign that I won’t have to be so caution on the next cycle because the laggards will provide a safety cushion if it’s a good rally.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:57 pm
AS long as investors believe in:
1.Jobless recovery
2.unemployment numbers are lagging indicator
3.The stimulus will work and will induce consumption
4.Removing MtM will make Banks’ capitol loss stop.
5.QE will drive the money on the sude line to take more risk, hence into equities.
6. Keep on drinking ‘kool aid’ rhetoric from Central Bankers and Central Govts.
7. Depressed Earnings will be accepted as ‘last of the worst’ (dark before dawn)
The Mkt will keep on moving up. There is NO logic, reasoning or crtical thinking here.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Does anyone know what’s going on today with CRE? Looks like it’s gotta be short covering which only feeds my theory that this rally, like the sell-off in the fall, is being juiced by hedge fund redemptions. What can I say, I like symmetry…
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Moss Says:
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
So tell me again why we have seen the bottom and that a new bull market is underway?
reply:
——————–
MULTIPLE EXPANSION! Collectively, everyone will decide / has decided to add an increment or two to stock prices because the like the idea of higher multiples. Especially the hedge funds. It’s not their money.
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Daily trend changed to up back on 3/10/09. Weekly trend has been down but if we close above 825.88 then it will have turned up but not yet confirmed. Need to close above 968.75 to change the monthly trend (currently down).
So this rally may have more legs before the correction begins. IMHO
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Thank you, AmenRa. The market is not a temple, there are no points for piety and orthodoxy, the sacred cows can gore you and the bears can maul you, so step lively and become clairvoyant.
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:36 pm
MR–
re: FAZ, looks like the low today was ~16.12, I was liking it yesterday, like it more now. though ~15.60? ?not sure..I’m a seller of FAZ Puts, a blend of Apr 17 1/2 & Apr 15, so far so good.. pulling ~2.30 w/ a synthetic 16 1/4 strike..
GFA–you should find out if they’re open to getting into Cellular Concrete, and how much of the Water/Wastewater services thay provide for their Housing communities..on the H2O front, depending on rainfall, we could make them -0-net use..
re: G-20
see: With Barack Obama on his side, Gordon Brown brokers a new world order at G20 summit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/cartoon/2009/apr/03/steve-bell-g20-gordon-brown-cartoon
and: 1. We, the leaders of the Group of Twenty, met in London on 2 April 2009.
2. We face the greatest challenge to the world economy in modern times; a crisis which has deepened since we last met, which affects the lives of women, men, and children in every country, and which all countries must join together to resolve. A global crisis requires a global solution.
3. We start from the belief that prosperity is indivisible; that growth, to be sustained, has to be shared; and that our global plan for recovery must have at its heart the needs and jobs of hard-working families, not just in developed countries but in emerging markets and the poorest countries of the world too; and must reflect the interests, not just of today’s population, but of future generations too. We believe that the only sure foundation for sustainable globalisation and rising prosperity for all is an open world economy based on market principles, effective regulation, and strong global institutions.
4. We have today therefore pledged to do whatever is necessary to: restore confidence, growth, and jobs; repair the financial system to restore lending; strengthen financial regulation to rebuild trust; fund and reform our international financial institutions to overcome this crisis and prevent future ones; promote global trade and investment and reject protectionism, to underpin prosperity; and build an inclusive, green, and sustainable recovery.
By acting together to fulfil these pledges we will bring the world economy out of recession and prevent a crisis like this from recurring in the future.
5. The agreements we have reached today, to treble resources available to the IMF to $750bn, to support a new SDR allocation of $250bn, to support at least $100bn of additional lending by the MDBs, to ensure $250bn of support for trade finance, and to use the additional resources from agreed IMF gold sales for concessional finance for the poorest countries, constitute an additional $1.1 trillion programme of support to restore credit, growth and jobs in the world economy. Together with the measures we have each taken nationally, this constitutes a global plan for recovery on an unprecedented scale, restoring growth and jobs
6. We are undertaking an unprecedented and concerted fiscal expansion, which will save or create millions of jobs which would otherwise have been destroyed, and that will, by the end of next year, amount to $5tn, raise output by 4%, and accelerate the transition to a green economy. We are committed to deliver the scale of sustained fiscal effort necessary to restore growth.
7. Our central banks have also taken exceptional action.
…all the way to 28.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/02/g20-economy
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:45 pm
What market move would cause the most pain? Virtually all market participants expect a retest of the lows, and soon, so it could well be that we see continued upward meandering for the markets. I’m not saying the bottom is in, nor that we won’t retest at some point this year, only that I hear very little conviction from the bulls, universal dismissal from the bears, and complete resignation from retail investors.
Not exactly a recipe for Nasdaq Armageddon. Well, at least not this month anyway.
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:48 pm
“GFA–you should find out if they’re open to getting into Cellular Concrete, and how much of the Water/Wastewater services thay provide for their Housing communities..on the H2O front, depending on rainfall, we could make them -0-net use..”
I will try to track something down this weekend on that. RE: FAZ when I state a # I am actually thinking about a possible range. Happy to see you options are working for you.
From the communiqué:
The era of banking secrecy is over. We note that the OECD has today published a list of countries assessed by the Global Forum against the international standard for exchange of tax information; to call on the accounting standard setters to work urgently with supervisors and regulators to improve standards on valuation and provisioning and achieve a single set of high-quality global accounting standards; and to extend regulatory oversight and registration to Credit Rating Agencies to ensure they meet the international code of good practice, particularly to prevent unacceptable conflicts of interest.
How do you say “Not a Bank” in Mandarin? Or the Portuguese they use in Macao? “Isso nao e um banco! Pode abrir aqui a sua conta”
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:53 pm
dead hobo Says:
“I’m taking it as a sign that I won’t have to be so caution on the next cycle because the laggards will provide a safety cushion if it’s a good rally.”
Good point. I’ll echo that. I was far too aggressive in selling this thing on the way up. But I’m always going to be somewhat conservative in that regard. Pigs get slaughtered, and all that, you know.
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:55 pm
According to Martin Armstrong’s Pi economic cycle theory, the next leg down should begin on the 23rd of this month. I have no way of testing the dude’s theory (so, I’m not vouching for it), but there’s plenty of info out there – pro and con – about it, and despite the naysayers, it seems to have predicted turning points for major trends fairly well since he developed it in the ’70s. The last minor cycle move (the cycle focuses on events or pivot points, not direction) was predicted for 3/19/09 – Just about when this rally broke through resistance. As part of the larger cycle, the 4/23/09 pivot is a prediction for a major turn downward (but it could be up – again it’s a prediction of event, not direction).
Just for Ss & Gs, mark your calendars for 4/23/09.
some interesting info, here:
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Byno said: “What market move would cause the most pain?”
Well, a big f***ing down move to 500, obviously, creaming all those who “only” lost 50% of their 401K.
How about an off-the-cliff drop of 10-20% just when Johnny Retail was getting back in the water?
Then a slow bleed down to a new Apathy Bottom in mid-summer and a Death of Equities magazine cover?
It’s not out of the question if selling starts in earnest in April – there are not a whole lot of shorts in this market.
As Barry says, crashes happen in oversold markets. Just something to consider as a Black Swan.
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:56 pm
re: SRS
looks like some bigtime pukage here…liking tranchefoot’s short redemption thesis. too tempting here sub 40 not to pick me up some.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
FINANCIAL BEAR 3X
(NYSEArca: FAZ)
Real-Time: 15.71 Down 2.01 (11.34%) 3:58PM ET
I know I will never receive a fruit basket from any of you Connecticutters, but Jumpin’ Jehosphat!
Here ya go. Maybe you should ask me how I knew.
FINANCIAL BEAR 3X
(NYSEArca: FAZ)
Real-Time: 15.60 Down 2.12 (11.96%) 3:59pm ET
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
I snagged a smidgen of overnight FAZ at the close. Too tempting below 16.00
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:03 pm
MR–
FAZ has showed some serious strength, you know the old adage: “”stocks” making new Lows continue…”
doesn’t matter, keeps the 41CV warmed up..as a +, it’s ‘been easy to borrow’, the FAZ that is, or so I’m told..
past that, this: “to ensure they meet the international code of good practice, particularly to prevent unacceptable conflicts of interest.”
almost like it was scripted, these Clowns need better Screenwriters, their S*** is Obvious..
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:04 pm
@Marcus Aurelius
The date he claims is 2009.3 or Apr 19, 2009. The .3 becomes the 109.5 day. Whether it’s true or not I can’t say. He’s been correct a few times but so has everyone who has called a bottom.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Looks like they’re trying to push the S&P up to 842.62 before the final trade :) The S&P trades until 4;15est. I’m just saying.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
@ Mregan at 2:46
“What do you think about FAZ @ 15.60- will it happen?”
FAZ closes at 15.60
How did do you do that?
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Scripted. That’s why I didn’t care for the whole “unacceptable conflicts of interest”. It’s all about the conflicts.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:09 pm
MA,
MA’s stuff if pretty radical, I’m really wondering if he’s allowed/accepts *Visitors*, might make a decent Interview..
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:11 pm
batmando, MR sits in the right chair, it’s on the left side of..
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:12 pm
@MEH: There’s an excellent Gartman Rule I am applying to FAZ.
Never add to a losing position. Sell it and buy it lower down.
Especially good for those of us who are often a tad early.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:16 pm
batmando-
I will tell you and only you the truth (no peeking if you’re not batmando).
I looked at the 5-day chart for it and asked myself, what price would I be willing to pay for this security in this environment? And I answered 15.60. All intuition. No math.
So the 15.60 thing was a fluke and even though every stock that have mentioned on the board with the exception of NVEC has done well: ACAS, XL- recommended to jdamon33. DXO (do not hold this one) GFA and F- the risks involved are huge and I will not recommend any long term holds, and I can only say that I think about price a lot and that all those years reading Calderon de la Barca and puzzling my way through Tricle by C. Vallejo etc have so addled my brain that I pick up the narrative cues in the reporting with a fair amount of clarity.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:22 pm
lb,
that’s always excellent advice. keep the stops tight, the losses little, you got to be around, to be around..
I’m good into the 14′s, can Short the animal to cover the Put, 3rd Friday isn’t that far away..
The ‘putes running these marts are some savvy Silicon, that’s for sure..
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:25 pm
MR–
deflower yon’ prose Good Sir~ you’re a Tapereader from the Old School!
that’s the w/o peeking version..
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:39 pm
MH-
Listen, I have written some effed up stuff in my day but I haven’t produced anything so virginal as to merit the ole “howzayamudder”. But yeah, you know how to scan. I can only do what I can do. Others are fair more skilled, intelligent and rich.
Here’s my Ford rationale: I read a blurb about a Ford flack who said some raw things about O’Reilly and advertising and I thought, hmmm, if a flack feels comfortable enough to speak the truth then that means they are likely to be thinking well (this was on 3/26) and then I decided that 2.90 was an ok price and said as much on this board. Wagoner was fired over the weekend.
Not a perfect price and I tend to buy pretty sharp when I buy. If one was following the headlines and media about GM and Chrysler -bailouts- Ford absent. Everything I heard about Ford was about making cars. Maybe I’m wrong, but I ain’t playing with nobody’s money but my own.
the auto industry
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:47 pm
You put the left leg up.
You put the right leg down.
The market’s doing the hokey-pokey. (I try to make sense of it. But, is that what it’s all about?)
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:50 pm
MR–
wtf does this: “but I haven’t produced anything so virginal as to merit the ole “howzayamudder”.” mean?
also, for that matter, what about this: “But yeah, you know how to scan.” ??
btw, I like F, the new Taurus looks to be a good car, I just with wish they’d get w/ the CNG game..
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Here we go again. Let’s trot out this oldie but goodie. What’s old is new again. That should be good for another 100 points on the S&P next week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoa7KqzRsoP8&refer=home
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Using percentages to gauge stock market movement seems kind of silly. Percentages are relative. If the market peak is 100 and drops to 10, it is a 90% drop; then goes back up to 20, a 100% increase, what does this really mean? Percentages are valuable only within the same context, for example, comparing peak to trough in successive events, etc.
Who cares if the market is up 25% after a 60% drop? That’s like being thrilled when your mechanic went into to do the re-build of your Ferrari’s V12 and found that only 60% instead of 80% of the engine was trashed, or celebrating after the dentist tells you that you’ll be able to keep two of your teeth after all!
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:57 pm
@ LB, MEH & Mregan
Thanks all for the insight
RE Gartner’s rue on FAZ
I have yet to discipline myself to this rule and suffer the consequences again (and again).
Last time I followed SRS down but eventually made good.
This time around on FAZ I fear I shall not fare so well.
@ Mregan
y los suenos, suenos son.
recuerdo el poema desde el séptimo grado
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:57 pm
@Marcus Aurelius 3:55 – Martin Armstrong also claims to have invented an AI computer. Doesn’t do a lot for his credibility.
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:01 pm
to deflower: 1. To take away the virginity of (a woman).
to scan: To analyze (verse) into metrical patterns.
howzayamudder is suggestive of a vigorous handshake, which may be perceived as an invasion of one’s space…
You are right though, I am not being clear. It is not in my nature though to be insulting so no worries on that score, it is just playfulness. You see, it is difficult to understand just how damaging it is to read Gaytari Spivak’s “Can the Subaltern Speak?” It does lasting damage. Please do not read if you value your synapses.
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:09 pm
texasradio,
I’ll take a SWAG and say: you wouldn’t know a neural network of MPPs even if someone told you that Cray Research’s Seymour saw more, in ’72, than most MCPs ever see in their lifetimes..
http://www.cray.com/About/History.aspx
http://www.microsoft.com/learning/mcp/default.mspx
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:10 pm
batmando-
muy bien, compadrito- eso!
los sueños sueños son
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:16 pm
MR–
sorry about that, wrong word choice. was looking for something more like this:
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/prune
def. 2 #2
but, now I understand what you were saying..
though, still unclear on the scan part..
but, I hear you, do not go to Barranca, do not read “Can the Subaltern Speak?” , got it~
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
MR–
are you using key commands to produce the ‘other’ characters, or are they built into your keyboard?
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:19 pm
@ impermanence:
> Using percentages to gauge stock market movement seems kind of silly. Percentages are relative.
Perhaps we should always to comparison in terms of dB. That way a 3dB drop followed by 3dB rise is gets you to the same place, unlike this 25% rally after a 50% drop…
HCF
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:25 pm
MH- just the commands.
ñ alt + 164
á alt+ 160
é alt + 130
í alt + 161
ó alt + 162
ú alt + 163
ü alt + 0252 (for Mayagüez)
ç alt + 0231
ã alt + 0227
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Mayaguez as in Ponce?
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:35 pm
MR–
got it, I see, though, I would like to get a keyboard with those keys hardwired..
and, this: to scan: To analyze (verse) into metrical patterns.
you’re referring to crack I made about reading various docs, it’s formulaic, pattern becomes obvious, thereby easier to read, yes?
***
btw, anyone know of any good print-to-digital scan apps that feed into website creation?
I’d be most grateful for a decent lead on that one..
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Mayagüez is on the western shore of Puerto Rico, Ponce is on the southern.
To all who love good poetry, please look up Julia de Burgos, a wonderful poet. From Carolina, Puerto Rico.
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
MH-
Polyvalence, dude. It means you never have to know what you mean. Dig it?
April 3rd, 2009 at 6:21 pm
@impermanance — if not % what should we use? Dow Points?! Trading days?? Percentages seem perfect to me. The problem I have is when people define a “bull market” as a 20% rally which as you can see from the chart would imply that we have had THREE bull markets in the past 6 months.. ridiculous.. Cramer and Bloomberg have made this mistake recently..
see link: http://moneyneversleepsblog.blogspot.com/2009/04/outrage-of-day.html
April 3rd, 2009 at 6:35 pm
20% rally = a bull market??
We call those gentlemen “bulltards” around here. All part of the Pump n Dump system.
Note they were conspicuously absent on 3/9/2009.
April 3rd, 2009 at 7:35 pm
I would say sell in May and go away, S&P eventual low 474 beginning October (yes, again), but I don’t know if we are gonna make it to May. Maybe I’ll sell a bit before and take my nickels to the gubmint TIP store a little early. Don’t want to get too greedy and lose more on longs i no longer have any confidence in. 5% Trailing stops from monday perhaps?
April 3rd, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Technical analysis is really only a piece of macroeconomics, isn’t it? Macroeconomics is bigger than technical analysis. You can all make your technical arguments, which may make sense in the short term, but long term, where’s the hope? What’s hopeful enough to pull us out?
April 3rd, 2009 at 7:51 pm
I’ve been reading this site for quite awhile and I’m totally out of the market as of now. Man it does hurt to see the S&P going up almost every friggin day. But in the last few weeks for the life of me I can’t figure out what side BR is on. Is he bearish or bullish? Cannot undertstand why losing all these jobs is a good thing. Totally more bad news than good but it doesn’t seem to matter. What gives? Thanks.
April 3rd, 2009 at 7:53 pm
-dead hobo
Multiple expansion due to increased inflation expectations?
If the hedgies all believe that then it will be self fulfilling.
Move in commodities seems to indicate this possibility.
I for one am trending light.. want to see some earnings.
Would like to see a sideways market and the 200 DMA come down.
April 3rd, 2009 at 7:57 pm
swood,
nobody knows. my pet theory is that hedge fund redemptions are accelerating the run-up much as they did the sell-off in the fall. I have absolutely no evidence for my theory, but I like the symmetry.
April 3rd, 2009 at 8:07 pm
Other than equities protecting us from inflation, because companies pass higher costs of inputs onto customers, why would any of you want to be in equities long-term? Are any of you in long-term?
April 3rd, 2009 at 8:17 pm
@moneyneversleepsblog
If something makes little sense, then generally the underlying premise is false, and in this case, I believe that to be the case. Putting thirty stocks together and treating them as one entity does not work. It would be like examining thirty patients, adding up all of their symptoms and coming up with a diagnosis.
Using percentages as a gauge is akin to saying that it’s 55F this afternoon and it will be 70% lower tonight (16F) and then 300% warmer (48F) tomorrow. It’s just a confusing way to present the information, generally exploited by those with something to gain from the same.
Yes, it should only be in points because 50 points down and twenty points up is clear to everybody.
April 3rd, 2009 at 8:30 pm
S&P P/E 26X based on reported earnings estimates of $32.
I rest my case.
April 3rd, 2009 at 8:33 pm
We’re just skipping along like a rock on a lake. But notice how the S&P is making a series of lower lows and lower highs? Uh, that’s not good.
April 3rd, 2009 at 8:41 pm
impermanence:
Points are better for people who have daily knowledge of the markets. Percentages are better for people who don’t. 50 points down is unclear to anyone who doesn’t know where the S&P was before opening.
April 3rd, 2009 at 9:03 pm
The SPX is 850 only because mark-to-market does not apply.
It’s really only worth 150.
April 3rd, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Hag:
I think it’s the opposite. Points are concrete, percentages abstract. If the market drops to 1 from 100 (-99%) one day and then goes up to 2 (+100%) the next day, characterizing as percentages could be quite mis-leading.
April 3rd, 2009 at 10:12 pm
impermanence:
what so hard about percentages??
we make money by interest on our capital…say we can get 3% in 10 year treasuary…thats the base line.
and when i invest 10000 dollars in dec 2007, by Mar 2009, i have lost around 50% …. $5000 gone.
so how does it not make sense??
but my friend…invested $10000 in March second week, he is up 20%, means he made $2000.
it does not matter how much you lost/gained …..you only care about what happened/happens to your investment henceforth.
April 3rd, 2009 at 10:17 pm
@impermanence
I disagree that percentages are abstract, they allow you to compare different stocks and different indices regardless of price. If the Dow is down 100 points there is a big difference between that drop occuring at Dow 1,000 or Dow 10,000. People like to say this stock is up $3, but there is a big difference between a $3 increase in Bank of America or Berkshire. I do not think it is misleading to say that the market is up 100% from the lows from your example, that’s a fact. You also have to be cognizant of where that puts you relative to the highs.
Look at the jobs number, people make the mistake of saying we lost 700k jobs that is the worst job loss ever blah blah… but when you take job loss as a PERCENTAGE of the total workforce you can compare it to the job losses in previous recessions and see we have had much bigger job losses historically.
I think the media makes this mistake all the time and misleads the public by NOT using percentages…
http://moneyneversleepsblog.blogspot.com/
April 4th, 2009 at 7:46 am
impermanence:
It’s true many don’t realize 5% down one day then 5% up the next means a net loss. However, both points and percentages are abstract. Hearing the market dropped x% means your equities dropped roughly x% in value, but hearing it dropped x points requires a calculation to estimate the impact on your portfolio.
April 4th, 2009 at 7:46 am
swood Says:
April 3rd, 2009 at 7:51 pm
I’ve been reading this site for quite awhile and I’m totally out of the market as of now. Man it does hurt to see the S&P going up almost every friggin day. But in the last few weeks for the life of me I can’t figure out what side BR is on. Is he bearish or bullish? ………What gives? Thanks…………………………………
Barry is bullish, atleast he seems to be when he starts picking on evidence that supports his point of view. Barry always says some bullish bits here and there , so if the market does go up, he will look brilliant. Fundamentally speaking, Barry is always right about the hard data about the crappy real economy, but he is bullish about stocks , after all he is a trader first.
April 4th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Mr. Hofer, what, exactly do your links have to do with AI? There is no AI. Even if all the supercomputers ever invented were linked together they could not become friends with Martin Armstrong’s daughter. The guy is a crank, although I do find some of his crackpot ideas entertaining, particularly the “Schema Frequency”.
As for your Microsoft insult, I regret to inform you that I am currently employed as a software engineer.
April 4th, 2009 at 10:44 am
texasradio,
the definition of AI, is, as you allude to, fuzzy..
see: http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~cfs/472_html/Intro/MinskyArticle/MM1.html
also, re: MSFT, their code sux, and they, as a corporation, as a function of their kluge-ware, have wasted tremendous amounts of time & energy by, merely, deign of its product’s utilization. To say nothing of their competitive predation..
if you want to ‘define’ AI, I’ll say more..
April 4th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
this is a time when galbraith’s “crash of 1929″ is a trove of mirth, insight and grim prescience. on the recent g20, as one example:
“Finally, there is the meeting which is called not because there is business to be done, but because it is necessary to create the impression that business is being done. … The fact that no business is transacted at a no-business meeting is normally not a serious cause of embarrassment to those attending. … Even though nothing of importance is said or done, men of importance cannot meet without the occasion seeming important.” (p. 139-140).
along the search for this passage i reencountered galbraith’s sarcasm on “the bezzle” (p.133), estimated today in the trillions.
April 4th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
moneyneversleepsblog says:
“I disagree that percentages are abstract, they allow you to compare different stocks and different indices regardless of price.”
Hag says:
“However, both points and percentages are abstract.”
Technically, all things intellectual are abstract, but for the purposes of this discussion, points seems to be closer to reality than percentages. Let’s take the Dow 30 Industrials.
Unless you hold an index fund which incorporates all thirty Dow stocks, what does this number tell you about each individual stock? Nothing. And of course, even the number means little anymore, especially in a market such as we have now (prices having little to do with a company’s value due to massive corruption of, well, everything). So, we have a number that tells us nothing about an individual stock, that in and of itself tells you little. Let’s add in percentages. You now have a percentage gain or loss of a group of stocks (with or without reference) which means nothing to the indivudual stock whose gain or loss you do not know.
That’s pretty abstract.
April 5th, 2009 at 1:27 am
Your all idiots,
Why don’t you read up on Mark-to-Market FAS187, when it was implemented. And read up on the news for this week.
step into my office….. your all fired.
May 23rd, 2009 at 11:24 am
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May 23rd, 2009 at 4:12 pm
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