The Feb S&P/CaseShiller 20 city home price index fell 18.63% y/o/y, a touch better than expected but with a slight downward revision to Jan to a fall of 19%. The index is now down 30.7% from its record high in July
’06. Both on a m/o/m and y/o/y basis, all 20 cities saw declines. The y/o/y declines saw the same culprits leading the way, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Miami. The smallest decline both m/o/m and
y/o/y was in Dallas.

The bank ‘stress test’ adverse scenario assumed a top to bottom fall of about 45% in the 10 city index which would imply another 20% fall from here in house prices. Unlike the FHFA report, CaseShiller does include jumbo’s, subprime and alt a backed mortgages but isn’t as geographically diverse in its coverage. With months supply still almost twice the long term average, economics 101 says that prices still have further to fall.

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Category: MacroNotes

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

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