Survival of the Fittest
Ford is joining Best Buy and Bed Bath & Beyond in taking advantage of their competitor’s woes while at the same time executing well thru a difficult economy and its stock is being rewarded after earnings.
European stocks are strong after Germany’s IFO, their main business confidence #, rose to the highest level since Nov at 83.7, 1.4 pts more than forecasted. The Euro is at a 1 1/2 week high vs the US$ in response.
Q1 GDP in the UK fell at the biggest pace since ’79, by 1.9% q/o/q, .4% more than expected and Moody’s made cautious comments on their sovereign credit outlook although they remain firmly Aaa.
Like the anxiety of opening up the letter from the college you really wanted to go to, banks get to hear how they did in the ‘stress test.’ This afternoon, the rest of us get to hear what assumptions were used and analysts can go to work to see who needs what.
~~~
March Durable Goods were down but better than expected. The headline figure was down .8% vs expectations of down 1.5% and ex transports, orders fell by .6% vs forecasts of down 1.2%. HOWEVER, Feb was revised down sharply to gains of 2.1% headline and 2% ex transports from up 3.4% and up 3.9%. Non Defense Capital Goods ex Aircraft, the pure cap ex component, rose 1.5% and is up for a 2nd straight month but after sharp drops in Dec and Jan. Shipments, which gets directly plugged into GDP, fell 1.7% and is now down 6 months in a row. We thus need to see if the orders over the past two months turn themselves into shipments as opposed to getting canceled. The inventory to shipments ratio continued higher, rising to 1.90 from 1.88 and is at the highest level since 1992. The early hopes of economic stability have been focused on inventory replenishment and today’s data point should be included in that analysis with the outcome still very unclear.
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April 24th, 2009 at 9:19 am
“Like the anxiety of opening up the letter from the college you really wanted to go to, banks get to hear how they did in the ’stress test.’”
And who’s going to community college…..
April 24th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Thanks to numerous bailouts, Survival of the Fittest is being replaced by Revival of the Un-Fittest. Zee pain, boss, zee pain!
April 24th, 2009 at 10:06 am
I think we won’t be seeing any May flowers quite yet (Maybe June-Aug though). Still:
Life is not a highway strewn with flowers,
Still it holds a goodly share of bliss,
When the sun
gives way to April showers,
Here’s a thought that we should never miss:
Though April showers
May come your way,
They bring the flowers
That bloom in May;
And if it’s raining,
Have no regrets;
Because, it isn’t raining rain, you know,
It’s raining violets.
And when you see clouds
Upon the hill,
You soon will see crowds
Of daffodils;
So keep on looking for the bluebird,
And listening for his song,
Whenever April showers come along.
– Al Jolson
April 24th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Interesting that even among companies that are doing well, insiders are now selling, and not buying stock.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:08 am
A successful economy expands over time. While the weakest performers should fall aside when stronger ones appear, the current economy looks more like a race to the bottom that has only slowed the rate of descent. Gullible investors confuse this slowing process with an impending turn upwards. The statistics above, when averaged, appear to be confirmation of a decline over a two month period an not a surprising improvement.
Please explain exactly where the cash to grow is coming from. Banks aren’t lending like they should. Junk credit is gone. Credit card companies are killing themselves by killing consumers. Who is going to be responsible for the recovery and who will pay for it? Or is this more Wall Street mythology being used to sell what Wall Street sells to gullible people who believe contrived economic theories calculated more to promote Wall Street than anything else?
April 24th, 2009 at 10:12 am
@dead hobo: Just play along for now. It’s fun to play pretend. Well, maybe not if you’re mostly short like me.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:13 am
China now stockpiling gold?
@karen: What do you think about those developments? Me-thinks I may stockpile some GDX. Already have some but may add more.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:15 am
“Interesting that even among companies that are doing well, insiders are now selling, and not buying stock.”
–lb,
“They caught the last train for the coast…”
~~
…I met a girl who sang the blues 41
And I asked her for some happy news
But she just smiled and turned away. 42
I went down to the sacred store
Where I’d heard the music years before
But the man there said the music wouldn’t play. 43
And in the streets the children screamed, 44
The lovers cried, and the poets dreamed. 45
But not a word was spoken,
The church bells all were broken. 46
And the three men I admire most,
The Father, Son, and the Holy Ghost, 47
They caught the last train for the coast…
http://www.wilstar.com/midi/americanpie.htm
April 24th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Mannwich,
Sorry for your troubles, but they will go away soon, I’m sure. I don’t have a choice not to go along. I’m starting to get a little sick of all those bastard optimists. I’m just concerned that the gullible won’t return so enthusiastically after the next bottom. If there is a conspiracy on Wall Street, I hope they manage the ‘sudden and surprising crash’ well.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:17 am
Jeff, from today’s daily pfenning, “Gold didn’t like the color of the Treasury Auction announcement yesterday either, and the shiny metal pushed back over $900 once again. Oh… And here’s a story that just hit the news wires this morning… It is reported that China has increased their Gold holdings 76% to the 5th Biggest Country (of Gold holdings). China increased their holdings from 454 Tons to 1,054 Tons… For those of you keeping score at home that’s $31 Billion dollars worth of Gold!”
April 24th, 2009 at 10:20 am
From Bloomberg:
Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since ‘07 as Stocks Gain
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=au8cyqeJFifg
April 24th, 2009 at 10:21 am
@karen: I saw that. I’ve been adding to my GDX position in previous weeks. Added more today. May continue to do so over time. Gotta hedge my deflation bets here.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:23 am
SRS holding up well today even amidst the rally. I smell a turn coming. Full disclosure: I base this feeling on nothing substantive and am talking my book.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:31 am
Having experienced other odd times in the stock market:
Oh oh here she comes
Watch out boy she’ll chew you up
Oh oh here she comes
She’s a maneater
Oh oh here she comes
Watch out boy she’ll chew you up
Oh oh here she comes
She’s a maneater
I wouldn’t if I were you
I know what she can do
She’s deadly man, she could really rip your world apart
Mind over matter
Ooh the beauty is there but a beast is in her heart
April 24th, 2009 at 10:32 am
@Bruce: Or in my case, a Mannwich-eater.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
This could be interesting. Madoff right-hand man willing to name names…..
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/24/news/newsmakers/madoff.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009042406
April 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Jeff, just keep an eye on $gold, 920; might be a serious setback if that level isn’t regained and held… gdx, $hui, need to show strength, and emerge from their downtrend… so far, they are not front running gold which would be the more bullish scenario…
April 24th, 2009 at 10:35 am
@ Mark and Bruce:
The difference, of course, is that people are capricious. Flowers grow whether you believe in them or not, and so will this economy.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:42 am
franklin,
to use extremes to delineate a point, w/this: ” Flowers grow whether you believe in them or not,”
How many, is a function of location, no?
NYC v. Plant City, FLA?
Pt. Barrow v. Manaus, Brazil?
your conclusion: the, inevitably, growing Economy.
your Premises?
April 24th, 2009 at 10:54 am
So many poets today.
There once was a banker from Nantucket
Who sold crap loans to all, then said “fuck it”
The loans were insured
Repayment was assured
From Uncle Stupid to Goldman, who said “suck it”.
(polite applause)
April 24th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Three cheers for dear Tiny Tim Geithner
Whose markets were needing a heightener
He called PPT
And screamed for Ben B
To concoct a new short-squeezin’ frightener.
April 24th, 2009 at 11:23 am
There was a young man from New York
Who blogged all the day while at work
The feds came one day
To say you can’t talk about us this way
And now he spends his days alone in the dark…
(very cautious applause…)
April 24th, 2009 at 11:29 am
You all are inspired today.
Mr. Ritholtz-
I will pay you $75.00 for all the comments in the BP’s database. Let’s talk turkey.
April 24th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Welcome sports fans,
It’s a beautiful spring day at the old ballyard.
Spring Training is behind us and we are ready for some full contact baseball.
This is the home opener for the heavily favored New York Goliaths, in their beautiful new billion dollar palace, Shitty Bank Park
The visiting team for this years, um, contest, are the Toledo Sluggos.
The Sluggos have had a rough go of it lately dropping from a mid-pack contender to a perennial cellar dweller.
As some may be aware, the rules in the old game have changed lately,
Well, at the end of the 1st inning, the Goliaths have outscored the Sluggos by 14 Trillion to 0.
It was a strong start by Old Hank Paulson that set the tempo for this years game, he struck out the first two batters, but apparently pulled his groin laughing his ass off and was replaced by Lil Tim Geithner. Lil Tim walked the first two batters as he struggled with pitch location early. He righted his ship after a stern chewing out by manager O’Bama and got the Sluggos to end the top half of the inning on a weak grounder to third.
The Sluggos, after a tough spring in the Cactus League, have no starting pitchers, as they seem to have misplaced their balls. Forced to bring in a no-name rookie, the Goliaths had their way with him, swinging for the fences and amassing an almost insurmountable 14 trillion run lead.
Stick around, it’s going to be a long, hot summer…
April 24th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Don`t Worry About The Government
I see the clouds that move across the sky
I see the wind that moves the clouds away
It moves the clouds over by the building
I pick the building that I want to live in
I smell the pine trees and the peaches in the woods
I see the pinecones that fall by the highway
That’s the highway that goes to the building
I pick the building that I want to live in
It’s over there, it’s over there
My building has every convenience
It’s gonna make life easy for me
It’s gonna be easy to get things done
I will relax alone with my loved ones
Loved ones, loved ones visit the building,
take the highway, park and come up and see me
I’ll be working, working but if you come visit
I’ll put down what I’m doing, my friends are important
Don’t you worry ’bout me
I wouldn’t worry about me
Don’t you worry ’bout me
Don’t you worry ’bout me
I see the states, across this big nation
I see the laws made in Washington, D.C.
I think of the ones I consider my favorites
I think of the people that are working for me
Some civil servants are just like my loved ones
They work so hard and they try to be strong
I’m a lucky guy to live in my building
They own the buildings to help them along
It’s over there, it’s over there
My building has every convenience
It’s gonna make life easy for me
It’s gonna be easy to get things done
I will relax along with my loved ones
Loved ones, loved ones visit the building
Take the highway, park and come up and see me
I’ll be working, working but if you come visit
I’ll put down what I’m doing, my friends are important
I wouldn’t worry ’bout
I wouldn’t worry about me
Don’t you worry ’bout me
Don’t you worry ’bout ME……….
The Talking Heads knew this government works for us to make us happy