Comments on: The (False) Glimmer of Hope http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 18:29:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Words from the (investment) wise 4.26.09 | The Big Picture http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-165315 Words from the (investment) wise 4.26.09 | The Big Picture Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:33:24 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-165315 [...] Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, April 23, [...] [...] Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, April 23, [...]

]]> By: drollere http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164699 drollere Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:53:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164699 cramer comes after the money honey and the same time as pbs news hour in my market. i sometimes see him when i turn on the set to switch over to pbs. so i didn't hear his rationale. he was waving little black bears around i think, if that means anything. i think buffett has great sense to talk only to becky, she's very cool and high class. maria is still a classic performer but she's been long on the job and can be a little carnival with her barking. erin is totally hot and tight but a little too nervous. they are all whip smart imo. and then there's cramer and the oversexed bachelors on fast money, saliva on their lips and eyes bulging ... it's like the gals broadcast out of new york and the guys out of las vegas. i'd guess ratigan will go to atlanta, where he can resume the beck franchise and go after the beck audience. angry populism! it sells sells sells! cramer comes after the money honey and the same time as pbs news hour in my market. i sometimes see him when i turn on the set to switch over to pbs. so i didn’t hear his rationale. he was waving little black bears around i think, if that means anything.

i think buffett has great sense to talk only to becky, she’s very cool and high class. maria is still a classic performer but she’s been long on the job and can be a little carnival with her barking. erin is totally hot and tight but a little too nervous. they are all whip smart imo.

and then there’s cramer and the oversexed bachelors on fast money, saliva on their lips and eyes bulging … it’s like the gals broadcast out of new york and the guys out of las vegas.

i’d guess ratigan will go to atlanta, where he can resume the beck franchise and go after the beck audience. angry populism! it sells sells sells!

]]> By: rktbrkr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164688 rktbrkr Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:39:56 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164688 What prompted Cramer to launch into sellsellsell? I know he's just an entertainer. Right now I'm on a CNBC moritorium. What prompted Cramer to launch into sellsellsell? I know he’s just an entertainer. Right now I’m on a CNBC moritorium.

]]> By: drollere http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164663 drollere Fri, 24 Apr 2009 05:57:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164663 it's official: cramer told his viewers to "sell sell sell". "people tell you it's not ok to sell, and they're wrong." i laughed out loud. he must have his shorts all in a row. i keep hearing about this leg down, this big leg down ... and now that cramer says it, i'm starting to wonder. this is the oxycontin market. see no pain, feel no pain. whatever happened to that rising wedge formation? any chartists still feeling that wedge? zerohedge is interesting, and i like the trader screen shots and deep dish info, but tyler reads too much paranoia into the data. you can tell he's young. it's a market, in the middle of an economic catastrophe. it's not supposed to make sense. it has no future plans. set your stops and go for a walk. it’s official: cramer told his viewers to “sell sell sell”. “people tell you it’s not ok to sell, and they’re wrong.” i laughed out loud. he must have his shorts all in a row.

i keep hearing about this leg down, this big leg down … and now that cramer says it, i’m starting to wonder. this is the oxycontin market. see no pain, feel no pain. whatever happened to that rising wedge formation? any chartists still feeling that wedge?

zerohedge is interesting, and i like the trader screen shots and deep dish info, but tyler reads too much paranoia into the data. you can tell he’s young. it’s a market, in the middle of an economic catastrophe. it’s not supposed to make sense. it has no future plans. set your stops and go for a walk.

]]> By: bangkokexpat http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164659 bangkokexpat Fri, 24 Apr 2009 04:25:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164659 Obama administration is all smoke and mirrors and still hides real situation from the world. Banks forced to take TARP funds then objection raised by government when they try to pay back. Government is not good in business as they can never stay within thier budget. Hands off and let people pay for their mistakes is better approach. Convict and harshly punish white collar criminals so they will police themselves rather than face the consequences of being criminally misleading. As for bonuses tax the incentive out of them. Obama administration is all smoke and mirrors and still hides real situation from the world. Banks forced to take TARP funds then objection raised by government when they try to pay back. Government is not good in business as they can never stay within thier budget. Hands off and let people pay for their mistakes is better approach. Convict and harshly punish white collar criminals so they will police themselves rather than face the consequences of being criminally misleading. As for bonuses tax the incentive out of them.

]]> By: Todd http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164657 Todd Fri, 24 Apr 2009 04:16:22 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164657 I did read in WSJ today that Mutual funds had net out flows from their money market funds. Retail is starting to get back into the market. I do think that the Chrysler event next week, no matter how well it's being telegraphed will still be taken as a surprise. Why? Joe retail still holds out hope that the govt wouldn't just let it happen. Your average 401k retail investor is not even looking at their statements right now. They know it's bad, they don't want to know how bad. All they know is that if they are going to have a chance to retire is to keep working and keep putting money into their 401k. I'm usually very optimistic, usually you can gain something positive out of every event. I'm also a realist. Conditions may be better right now, but they are not great. Credit has only loosened for the Fortune 100 type companies. The smaller you go the tighter it gets. We are just lucky that usually the smaller a company is the less leverage it usually carries. So these companies can continue going longer, it is just long term if credit stays this way more and more companies will start running into problems. For a positive. I do think information tech can shorten some of the pain that was experienced in the past. Supply chains are a lot tighter now than they were, so over and under corrections will not be as extreme as the 30's. I did read in WSJ today that Mutual funds had net out flows from their money market funds. Retail is starting to get back into the market.

I do think that the Chrysler event next week, no matter how well it’s being telegraphed will still be taken as a surprise. Why? Joe retail still holds out hope that the govt wouldn’t just let it happen.

Your average 401k retail investor is not even looking at their statements right now. They know it’s bad, they don’t want to know how bad. All they know is that if they are going to have a chance to retire is to keep working and keep putting money into their 401k.

I’m usually very optimistic, usually you can gain something positive out of every event. I’m also a realist. Conditions may be better right now, but they are not great. Credit has only loosened for the Fortune 100 type companies. The smaller you go the tighter it gets. We are just lucky that usually the smaller a company is the less leverage it usually carries. So these companies can continue going longer, it is just long term if credit stays this way more and more companies will start running into problems.

For a positive. I do think information tech can shorten some of the pain that was experienced in the past. Supply chains are a lot tighter now than they were, so over and under corrections will not be as extreme as the 30′s.

]]> By: Joe the miner http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164655 Joe the miner Fri, 24 Apr 2009 04:04:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164655 Rather, "The only question is how big of a "leg" down this will be". Rather, “The only question is how big of a “leg” down this will be”.

]]> By: Joe the miner http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164654 Joe the miner Fri, 24 Apr 2009 04:02:46 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164654 Forget the glimmer of hope, at least for now as we seem to be looking at the next leg down for the DJIA as the bullish index ($BPINDU) has hit an inflection point; it hit a high on april 19th of 63, we are now at 47 but the DJIA is still trading just shy of 8,000. The only question is how big of a let this will be. Time to pick up some DXD & make some $$$ Forget the glimmer of hope, at least for now as we seem to be looking at the next leg down for the DJIA as the bullish index ($BPINDU) has hit an inflection point; it hit a high on april 19th of 63, we are now at 47 but the DJIA is still trading just shy of 8,000. The only question is how big of a let this will be. Time to pick up some DXD & make some $$$

]]> By: Foghorn Longhorn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164643 Foghorn Longhorn Fri, 24 Apr 2009 02:58:54 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164643 The main point to remember in this fiasco, is that it is a marathon not a sprint. To liken it to a baseball game, we are in the top of the 2nd inning. Long time till we bring in the closer. The main point to remember in this fiasco, is that it is a marathon not a sprint.
To liken it to a baseball game, we are in the top of the 2nd inning.
Long time till we bring in the closer.

]]> By: moneyneversleepsblog http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-false-glimmer-of-hope/comment-page-3/#comment-164640 moneyneversleepsblog Fri, 24 Apr 2009 02:46:21 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=24322#comment-164640 @ Onlooker from Troy I expect a skeptical take from this group, tends to attract that kind of crowd. I think the avg Joe is not buying in to this and the reason is their view on the economy. That's a problem because the economy and the market can diverge at times. The "smart" money, which is a stretch, got short term excited (looking at AAII) but consumer sentiment sucks and the dumb money is afraid to jump back in the pool. It is highly unlikely that the mutual fund investor is all in after getting burned.. they will be very slow to get back in and by the time they do.. most people don't even realize the rally we have had since the March 6th low. No one can really see any potential or faint "glimmer of hope" for this economy.. and from a contrarian point of view, that is actually slightly comforting... kind of like October 2007 when you just couldn't figure out how the economy could possibly continue to grow... perhaps this magazine cover will end up being a contrarian indicator... now that would be some black swan stuff right there... http://moneyneversleepsblog.blogspot.com/ @ Onlooker from Troy

I expect a skeptical take from this group, tends to attract that kind of crowd. I think the avg Joe is not buying in to this and the reason is their view on the economy. That’s a problem because the economy and the market can diverge at times. The “smart” money, which is a stretch, got short term excited (looking at AAII) but consumer sentiment sucks and the dumb money is afraid to jump back in the pool. It is highly unlikely that the mutual fund investor is all in after getting burned.. they will be very slow to get back in and by the time they do.. most people don’t even realize the rally we have had since the March 6th low.

No one can really see any potential or faint “glimmer of hope” for this economy.. and from a contrarian point of view, that is actually slightly comforting… kind of like October 2007 when you just couldn’t figure out how the economy could possibly continue to grow…

perhaps this magazine cover will end up being a contrarian indicator… now that would be some black swan stuff right there…

http://moneyneversleepsblog.blogspot.com/

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