http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-next-great-bubble/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:38:09 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-next-great-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-171316 Mundo al Día LIV : ErnestoJustiniano.org Wed, 13 May 2009 20:46:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25018#comment-171316 [...] préstamos otorgados, de ventas de coches, de importaciones de cobre, etc, etc. Sin embargo, en su artículo publicado en el blog The Big Picture, dedicado a temas macroeconómicos, Katsenelson sostiene que [...] [...] préstamos otorgados, de ventas de coches, de importaciones de cobre, etc, etc. Sin embargo, en su artículo publicado en el blog The Big Picture, dedicado a temas macroeconómicos, Katsenelson sostiene que [...]

]]> http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-next-great-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-167459 Беглый взгляд на рынки на неделе с 27 апреля по 1 мая 2009 « Финсовет Sun, 03 May 2009 19:43:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25018#comment-167459 [...] Очередной великий пузырь? (на английском) — продолжает тему теперь В. [...] [...] Очередной великий пузырь? (на английском) — продолжает тему теперь В. [...]

]]> http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-next-great-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-167124 Trend Architect » Blog Archive » Weekend Reading Fri, 01 May 2009 23:41:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25018#comment-167124 [...] The Next Great Bubble? [...] [...] The Next Great Bubble? [...]

]]> http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-next-great-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-166875 Quickthink » Blog Archive » Friday’s tidbits Fri, 01 May 2009 08:15:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25018#comment-166875 [...] the Next Bubble? - Vitaliy Katsenelson offers some good arguments why the apparently quick recovery in China is not really a recovery at [...] [...] the Next Bubble? – Vitaliy Katsenelson offers some good arguments why the apparently quick recovery in China is not really a recovery at [...]

]]> http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-next-great-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-166173 CheeseburgerBob Wed, 29 Apr 2009 13:16:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25018#comment-166173 Overall spot on - and I agree with most of it. However, the U.S. (and Europe) have greatly reduced their capacity in manufacturing to provide the market in China with anything. China's own growing consumer segment may be able to offset some of the world's demand drop (especially at depressed global growth rates), mitigating the reliance for external demand to improve. China (through design or luck) has subsidized their own demand curve with the rest of the world and at some point will be able to rely more on their internal demand from their consumer segment and growth. The sheer size of their population is able to produce a demand for products and services that could theoretically match a declining, aging and credit-crippled Western world demand. They do have a balancing act in their assets (dollars) but, as you note, they can turn things on a dime in a tightly controlled economy. Their ability to use those dollars to buy up depressed real assets outside their country should also be considered and is a real potential. I have come the realization that most things do not swing on the pendulum as far either way as exepected. Overall spot on – and I agree with most of it.
However, the U.S. (and Europe) have greatly reduced their capacity in manufacturing to provide the market in China with anything. China’s own growing consumer segment may be able to offset some of the world’s demand drop (especially at depressed global growth rates), mitigating the reliance for external demand to improve. China (through design or luck) has subsidized their own demand curve with the rest of the world and at some point will be able to rely more on their internal demand from their consumer segment and growth. The sheer size of their population is able to produce a demand for products and services that could theoretically match a declining, aging and credit-crippled Western world demand. They do have a balancing act in their assets (dollars) but, as you note, they can turn things on a dime in a tightly controlled economy. Their ability to use those dollars to buy up depressed real assets outside their country should also be considered and is a real potential. I have come the realization that most things do not swing on the pendulum as far either way as exepected.

]]> http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-next-great-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-166109 Trade prep: patience patience patience edition « Mr. Unexpectedly Wed, 29 Apr 2009 02:38:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25018#comment-166109 [...] The Next Great Bubble? (China–great analysis) [...] [...] The Next Great Bubble? (China–great analysis) [...]

]]> http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/the-next-great-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-166047 ynotgoal Tue, 28 Apr 2009 21:05:59 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25018#comment-166047 Nice post. I've been making a similar analogy for a while - with one exception. While most of the dot-coms ended up going bankrupt and defaulting on their loans to Lucent, I would argue the US won't go bankrupt (ok, maybe its a close call) but will actually pay back the Treasury's owned by China. So, China's growth will be hurt by decreased demand for their products due to the contraction in the global economy but they won't lose the value of their loans as Lucent did. I do agree China's economy will be in for a rough period until either global growth returns or internal consumer demand picks up. One other point, my Chinese connections tell me many of the newly unemployed are going back to the countryside where they can still live off the farms which won't make them happy but might mitigate the riot scenario at least for a while. Nice post. I’ve been making a similar analogy for a while – with one exception. While most of the dot-coms ended up going bankrupt and defaulting on their loans to Lucent, I would argue the US won’t go bankrupt (ok, maybe its a close call) but will actually pay back the Treasury’s owned by China. So, China’s growth will be hurt by decreased demand for their products due to the contraction in the global economy but they won’t lose the value of their loans as Lucent did. I do agree China’s economy will be in for a rough period until either global growth returns or internal consumer demand picks up. One other point, my Chinese connections tell me many of the newly unemployed are going back to the countryside where they can still live off the farms which won’t make them happy but might mitigate the riot scenario at least for a while.

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