They don’t give a damn about a deteriorating economy, people losing jobs or a major corporation going down the tubes just as long as it isn’t them.

This kind of statement belies a misunderstanding about viral mutation. Viruses usually mutate in order to become less fatal. Part of the success with treating HIV can be traced to the slow mutation of the disease into less deadly forms. Viruses don’t actually want to kill their host because they are dependent upon it and cannot spread when the host dies. So the virus will steadily become less deadly as it mutates within the human population. The most deadly viruses are those that have just jumped from a different species and therefore have not mutated sufficiently to prevent death in their host (what doesn’t kill a pig MAY kill a human).

I am inclined to agree that this outbreak is not likely to be a dangerous pandemic, but that is based on what we have seen in the NYC area cases. However, as Tom points out information is quite sparse at this stage. My gut feeling is that if/when we see a real killer flu it will be on us with tremendous speed and the hospitals would start filling up very rapidly. What we should be concerned about is that this virus is going to be sitting in the human population and the probability that mutation results in the later generations emerging as a substantial threat.

No doubt the abundance of pork getting slung around by our politicians in D.C. and the further gorging at the trough by the hogs of Wall Street give rise to all sorts of amusing comparisons to the recent outbreak of swine flu. However, with respect to your comment, ” most health experts seem to believe that the H1N1 strain of swine flu is unlikely to reach pandemic proportions.”, even a lay person such as myself recognizes that it’s far too early to draw any conclusions as to the end result of this outbreak. Therefore, the more expert & Government reassurances that are issued, the more nervous I get. Mexico’s request that bars, theaters & churches stay closed for the duration of the outbreak is anything but reassuring. I read today of a Mexican death toll of 150 out of 2000 infections – a staggering (for flu) 7.5% mortality rate. Then this evening, our County health official was on the local news with the comforting announcement that the county has 200k doses of antivirals on hand, enough for the entire population of our northeastern MN county. Yet Mark Thoma informs that nationwide the available doses of Tamiflu & Relenza total 5 million (with 25% earmarked for all of CA). Since I doubt Thoma is misinformed on that number, County guy is either confusing antivirals with aspirin or he’s lying. I can appreciate not wanting to start a panic however, if this situation is not quickly resolved, there will be increasing pressure on our public health officials to frost the glass further. It’s the nature of these events that they don’t resolve quickly regardless of it all goes well and we deserve accurate & complete information in order to assess our risk. But as you suggest, that has proven to be in short supply on all manner of issues. The Thoma link: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/04/governor-schwarzeneggers-press-conference.html