bloom-radio

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I am doing a half hour slot on Bloomberg Radio 3:00 – 3:30

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

46 Responses to “Bloomberg Radio 3:00 – 3:30”

  1. Jdamon33 says:

    Well, selling my WFC and dumping the bank stocks on Wed. not looking like a very smart move now. Buying FAZ at $6.00 looks even worse. I need a break from all the pessimism on TBP, it’s starting to effect my trading!!!

    Anyone else think this rally is for real?

  2. SINGER says:

    radical, dude!

  3. franklin411 says:

    @Jdamon
    Yes, I think this is real. Data aside, I think the pessimism here *firms my confidence* that the rally is genuine.

  4. AlGore says:

    Anyone else think this rally is for real? ”

    This is about your gov and their buddies pumping up the bank stocks so they can issue and sell their stock.

    California sales tax revenue is down 40% from last quarter, the consumer IS DEAD and future earning estimates for the S&P are based on a 2nd half recovery.

    Go Long if you want

  5. franklin411 says:

    @AlGore (if that is your real name!)
    So tax receipts dropped precipitously from Jan-Mar. Shocking. I’ve been asleep for the last year and hadn’t heard that the economy was bad.

    /sarcasm off.

  6. DL says:

    Jdamon33 @ 2:50

    I’d feel a lot better about going long if we could get a 7% correction.

    I think something like 93% of all S&P500 stocks are above their 50 day MA. Can it really go to 99%…?

  7. well, from Bloomberg, anyways:

    “A federal jury in Missoula, Montana, today acquitted the company and three former executives of conspiracy, violating the Clean Air Act and obstruction of justice. The verdicts, on the second day of deliberations after 11 weeks of trial, sent Grace up as much as 34 percent.
    Grace, a specialty-chemicals manufacturer based in Columbia, Maryland, mined and processed vermiculite in the town until 1990.
    Prosecutors originally claimed the company and five former executives conspired for decades to expose Libby residents to asbestos-contaminated vermiculite, a mineral used in gardening and construction.
    The government dropped charges against two of the men near the end of the trial, after U.S. District Judge Donald Molloy limited the evidence jurors could hear. Molloy frequently criticized the prosecution’s case outside the jury’s presence. ..”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLi.mRxBYKO0&refer=home
    is amazing
    see: http://www.highplainsfilms.org/fp_libby.html for more background..
    ~~
    BR,
    good luck on the dial..

  8. rob says:

    Hell yeah it’s for real! I piled in with everything I have into anything random along with trailing stops on everything. That’s how much faith I have in this charade! Every up day my stops get tighter and tighter… Worst event since WWII but yet a 40% bounce in two months. Stupid is as stupid does…

  9. leftback says:

    @DL: Sure. franklin says it’s the real thing.

    Stocks only go up, the market always comes back, housing never loses value and Britney always wears panties.

  10. willid3 says:

    has any body noticed that the home page seems to be messed up?

  11. Mannwich says:

    @willid3: Yep, the home page is messed up.

  12. Mannwich says:

    What a surprise. Another pump in the final 10 minutes.

  13. Mannwich says:

    @jdamon33: You might have been a touch early but it’s a matter of time. Check this out. Don’t get greedy….a lot of selling into strength going on. BAC & WFC top 2 on the list.

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html

  14. leftback says:

    I was slightly up again (TBT has been on fire) but unloaded a few more longs into the close and bought DUG. The OIH has been running wild, and I suspect we will see a reversal in gold, silver and oil soon. I sold UGL and SLW.

    When this finally ends we will feel stupid for having had “doubts”, but seriously, this rally is an obvious squeeze. Once this thing turns around the IYR is going to drop very very fast and it will take a lot of people by surprise.

    I was watching some of my materials longs (GMO, UEC) that have been leading this rally all the way and they were weak. That’s interesting b/c those are not Schwab guy stocks, Johnny Retail is not piling into that stuff.

  15. Onlooker from Troy says:

    The rubber band is stretching tighter and tighter. The snap back could be vicious. Something about about this market makes these trends just wrap tighter and tighter. I know SavetheWhales has a hypothesis about the leveraged ETFs. I don’t know, maybe it’s just bear market psychology. Once again, witness ’29-’32.

    Greed has certainly set in hear. And ironically fear too; of missing the boat. I’m not a TA expert (that’s an understatement) but I do know that these kind of extreme moves largely retrace themselves almost all the time. Thus the rubber band metaphor. Just like the March low. And just like that low, it’s gut wrenching as we wait to see just how far it can possibly go.

  16. leftback says:

    We are set up for a possible $ rally, with US$ sitting on support – of course it is the last thing that anyone would expect. But with the US economy “growing green shoots”, the $ should logically gain ground at the expense of the Euro. Oil is very overbought here and as that sells off it tends to amplify the $ rallies.

    Now add in the fact that JPY and TLT is sitting on support as well and you have the basis for an equity negative move to safety. With few shorts, and weak new longs, the stage is set for a very rapid decline, perhaps as sharp as the one we saw in crude after the massive squeeze last summer. All it takes is a little profit taking to begin the descent. Mannwich’s post above shows that we have already seen some of the smart money leave the building.

    Wave 5, anyone??

  17. adavydov says:

    @leftback: feels like GS decided that since their cornering of the crude market worked so well last year, they figured what the hell why don’t we go ahead and corner equities this time around?

  18. HCF says:

    Capitulated on some of my short positions (SKF, FAZ, EFU, EEV). Such a tiny % of my portfolio, but too psychologically damaging to watch the drip drip drip of daily bleeding. Still bearish like hell, but just waiting for the markets to come off this acid trip. Luckily, among other things, I’ve been long generic pasta, coffee, and energy drinks… I guess unemployed people need SOME things.

    I’ll be long wine and scotch this weekend =)

    HCF

  19. Transor Z says:

    @Mark: Too bad the folks in Missoula didn’t bother talking to the folks in Woburn, Massachusetts.

    http://www.grace.com/Media/GraceInYourArea/documents/GraceInMassachusetts.pdf

    “A Civil Action” is required reading in many law schools.

    http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/node/1401

  20. HCF says:

    @Onlooker From Troy:
    >Greed has certainly set in hear. And ironically fear too; of missing the boat.

    It’s like Chuck Prince said near the top of the bubble, “If the music is playing, we have to dance.”
    I don’t think this is going to end well, but unfortunately, it’s getting harder and harder to figure out WHEN this will not end well…

    HCF

  21. leftback says:

    Mish and Yves both have good posts on the unemployment report. Mish does his usual takedown of the B/D adjustment and dissects out the government jobs. NC has a guest commentary:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/05/guest-post-april-unemployment-figures.html

    The point about the new high school and college graduates and how nobody is actually itching to employ them is a particularly pertinent one – this large addition to the labor force might cause the NFP number to start going backwards by September. Imagine that, Larry Kudlow – Green shoots retreating into the ground….

    A word from former sub-prime mortgage brokers: “We’re all census workers now!”

  22. eren says:

    i don’t see how this could be real. anyways
    i have faz, usd (semiconductor etf). today i bought some fas around 11 and sold covered may $9 calls. 1 week premium was like %4. not bad. i am hoping it does not go under 9 next week.

  23. I-Man says:

    Cheers HCF:

    I’m long super hoppy Imperial IPA’s this weekend. And of course, some Catch a Fire.

    Peace yall, I-Man out. Might pop in for a Open Thread Saturday night if ya savvy BR. What up with those Jazz threads? Still doing those?

  24. leftback says:

    Cheers I-Man. Enjoy those Pacific Northwest microbrews.

  25. AmenRa says:

    I have a feeling that they are shooting for 9000 on the Dow. Since options expiration is next week there is a good chance that we’ll hit that target. After that I think everyone is headed for the door. The summer sell off will be massive and probably make 666.79 on the S&P resistance for a few weeks.

  26. hopeImwrong says:

    Leftback – Just want to let you know, you and about three to five others (Andy T being the second one, others to be named later) are the reasons I’m paying attention to this blog. Thanks for your contributions. BR should be paying you for upping the traffic here. I comment on no other blogs. I rarely read comments on other articles/blogs. Here I sometimes read the comments, first.

  27. leftback says:

    @Hope: Thanks for the kind words. I am just grateful to BR for all of the information and education from veteran traders and market watchers, and the chance to meet like minds and share a few thoughts away from the general insanity of the herd.

    @ AmenRa makes a good point above and I would certainly want to be very short at options expiration.

    Below is a nice timely reminder on the housing meltdown (no, not last year’s, this year’s) from someone who (like CR) has been all over this business from the get-go. Take a gander at #10 on the list for the Alt-A and prime resets and you’ll understand why everyone was wetting themselves to walk the banks through the Stress Tests with Mark-to-Magic before the second tsunami wave reaches shore:

    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/10-reasons-why-buying-a-home-in-southern-california-today-is-a-mistake-california-housing-and-financial-market-analysis-produces-no-green-shoots/

  28. I-Man says:

    Cheers to you too Left, have a good weekend all!

  29. dead hobo says:

    Dammit. I just posted some good shit in the China thread. There should be some cutoff rules when the herd moves to another place to graze.

  30. constantnormal says:

    I suspect that the eventual unwinding of all this pointless bullishness will not occur via a massive crash, and will almost certainly begin after the markets have exceeded even the most optimistic guesses at tops, at which time we will enter an interminable period of seesaw movement, trending gradually lower until at some point in the far distant future (2010, 20111, 2012…?) we will confirm the previous lows and bump along them for a ways.

    By that time the U3 unemployment will be well in excess of 10%, possibly in excess of 12%, the U6 numbers will be in the 20%-25% range, driven by persistent and ongoing financial stress from the mortgage madness, which continues through at least 2012. And a nice roaring inflationary fire will be getting going as China will have unloaded their dollar-denominated debt by that time and will be convincing a do0llar-weary world to abandon the USD for a basket of currencies+commodities as an international medium of trade. But all this will unwind over an incredibly long time frame, providing ample opportunities for all kinds of expectations to smash themselves to bits on the cold, harsh reefs of Reality.

    In a scenario like that, we will see bulls ruined, bears ruined, and only the most nimble and proficient of traders managing to hang onto their skin (toes being long-ago surrendered).

    And what model do I base this on? Merely my churning gut, the preponderance of data, and a belief that markets act to inflict the maximum pain on the maximum number of participants. That’s how the caution that counters the optimism born of greed comes about.

  31. Chubby Davis says:

    Buy in May… Party all summer! Dow 15,000

    STAY THIRSTY MY FRIEND

  32. constantnormal says:

    dead hobo — you didn’t hear it when they rang the bell?

  33. Mannwich says:

    FDIC setting up shop in Florida. Probably getting ready for Bank United’s pre-privatization. Maybe I can apply for a job at the FDIC? Seems they have a l0t of work for the foreseeable future.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/fdic-to-open-temporary-florida-office.html

  34. AmenRa says:

    Does Bove ever not talk up the banks? They can do no wrong in his eyes. He was just on Bloomberg saying that the stress tests were hard and that banks have more than enough capital to survive a downturn. Has anyone ever looked into his offshore accounts? I mean, c’mon already.

  35. AmenRa says:

    @ Chubby Davis

    “He once had an awkward moment…just to see what it felt like”.

  36. Transor Z,

    yes, that was going through my mind when the Topic of Tanneries was being discussed..

    peep would do well to be acquainted w/ that scene, it is, hardly, unique

  37. Onlooker from Troy says:

    @AmenRa

    Re: Bove No kidding. My thoughts exactly. I mean really, the SEC should look into these analysts that just seem to be constant cheerleaders for their sector of “expertise.” And I’m probably being naive’ here, it’s probably gone on for decades, but why do these useless analysts not completely lose their credibility and get run out of the business?

    I know, I know. But it’s nice to dream.

  38. usphoenix says:

    @Leftback: Thanks for the link on CA RE. Powerful stuff. The charts really spell out how we’re just now starting to dip our toes in the real sh*t.

  39. Steve Barry says:

    Some green shoots for the QID crowd…QQQQ volume finally picked up…3 days of strong volume in a row for the first time since November. And nice divergence…with the Dow up 165 points in 4 days, QID was UP 1.6. NDX Bulls is off the charts at 86%…can’t get much higher.

  40. call me ahab says:

    Steve-

    I did see the QID went up- thought it odd with the rest of the market in rally mode- I think tech in general is oversold

    question though- do you find it odd that GM stock is at a 1.61 when GM itself said it was going to wipe out the shareholders- seems to me everyone would be running for the exit-

    can’t figure it out

  41. Steve Barry says:

    @CMA

    you mean tech is overbought I hope.

    As for GM, I wondered that myself…I hope it is just market stupidity, as that is how I intend to make money.

  42. Stillaway says:

    @ ahab re GM stock.

    Who wants it? People who also buy lottery tickets. Buying C at a $1 two months ago has paid off 4:1.

  43. call me ahab says:

    Steve-

    sometimes my fingers are typing before my mind catches up- yes overbought- weird on GM though-

    Stillaway-

    I see the 4 to 1 on C- but- still- Citibank never said they were going to issue massive shares then do a reverse at 100 to 1 diluting the current shareholders to less then 1 cent a share-

    that is what’s known as clue in the detective world- also- say hi to LB for me

  44. Stillaway says:

    call me-

    The lottery ticket world IS clueless. In this world going to .0161 and then $4 is an even bigger payoff.

    “say hi” — you mean Ace don’t you?

  45. call me ahab says:

    Ace and Gary-

    no kidding- quite the payoff- if any company deserved to go down- it was Citi- the USG- I guess- will hold up that corpse for years to come-

    keep it ambiguous

  46. AmenRa says:

    Here’s a good read. “Green shoots or rose colored glasses” by David Rosenberg over at ZH:
    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/green-shoots-or-rose-colored-glasses.html