Catching Up to Europe’s Joblessness
Floyd Norris notes that after enjoying a much lower jobless rtae than the Europeans, the US has caught up with the continent — and is poised to pass them:
“FOR many years, unemployment in the United States was lower than in Western Europe, a fact often cited by people who argued that the flexibility inherent in the American system — it is easier to both hire and fire workers than in many European countries — produced more jobs. That is no longer the case. Unemployment in the United States has risen to European averages, and seems likely to pass them when international data for April is calculated . . .
In March, the American unemployment rate stood at 8.5 percent, the same as the average rate for the first 15 members of the European Union — the countries that were part of the group before it began to expand into Eastern Europe.”
Of course, I am all about the chart:
>
click for larger graphic
chart courtesy of NYT
>
Source:
U.S. Jobless Rate Likely to Pass Europe’s
FLOYD NORRIS
NYT, May 22, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/23/business/economy/23charts.html
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
May 23rd, 2009 at 4:06 pm
We’re number 1!
May 23rd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Now that’s NOT a data point senor Kudlow will acknowledge… those socialist Europeans are only to be looked down upon.
May 23rd, 2009 at 4:17 pm
you know, as the “World’s Lone Superpower”, We get very little “News” about the rest of the World.
even “News” about Europe is slim, at best, unless you include ManU scores..
seems odd, to me anyways..
May 23rd, 2009 at 4:22 pm
MEH: Tune in to the BBC News.
May 23rd, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Interesting chart…We’ve had the “freest,” most unregulated markets in American history since the 1920s during the Bush years, and yet unemployment ramped up to surpass the “socialist” economies of Europe. How will free market radicals explain this away?
May 23rd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
MA: I hear you, though, I was hoping the Source of the Chart would have delineated the Media/MSM I was referring to..
to be clear, there are decent sources of “News”/ intel- available, still, to those domiciled w/in the NAU, but “World News”–barring Earthquakes/Mudslides/and various Riots–is, hardly, a staple found w/in the MSM’s offered Feed-Bag..
http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/NorthAmerica_TF_final.pdf
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64948/ian-bremmer/state-capitalism-comes-of-age
May 23rd, 2009 at 4:46 pm
I like that slope too- I wonder which one I’d put my money on to win the race
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Is unemployment calculated the same was in the EU as in the USA. Most countried in the EU calculated unemployment rate differently. Let’s keep in mind that the EU is about 6 months behind USA when it comes to the recession. The EU rates have just started to take off.
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:10 pm
note the bars charts below the curves – compared to ’06, there are quite a few euro countries that have lower unemployent now than then.
is there a John Williams for euro-land?
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:16 pm
What are the problems in Spain? Don’t follow the economy there at all. I thought I read somewhere not long ago that they were loaded with Subprime.
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:17 pm
super_trooper-
your first question wouldn’t really matter- because- regardless of how the US and EU calculate unemployment- we have always been lower- so-
obviously something is amiss in the good ol’ USA
your 2nd observation may be true- with the EU lagging the USA into the recession- however there is no certainty that the recession will be more or less severe in the EU than what we are experiencing
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:20 pm
ben22,
see: http://my.opera.com/richardinbellingham/blog/portugal-italy-greece-and-spain-the-pigs-of-europe-are-causing-an-ouflow-of
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Europe%27s+%22PIGS%22+Portugal+Greece+Spain
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:23 pm
ben22 @5:15 –
did you see how high the unemployment rate is in spain? 18%, up from 9% in ’06
big real estate boom in recent years – same securitized mortgages, same “pull” from the banks
a lot of retirees (move to the warmth and sun) from northern europe and, especially UK
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:26 pm
Mark-
I was all over the PIGS reference myself to relay to B22- however- as I perused the chart- it appears that Portugal, Italy and Greece are fairing as least as well as we are on unemployment-
so PIGS maybe should be shortened to S
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:26 pm
@Mark, Wes,
mark, if that first link is right, Spain still has a ways to go, to the downside. I see the dreaded stagflation used in the article. Figures they had a real estate bubble there too.
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:29 pm
mark,
re our discussion on prechter the other day, check out the video’s section.
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:37 pm
ben22,
the “RE Bubble” was truly a World-Wide phenomenon, even E. Europe, the former “Warsaw Pact” y Russia, her ownself..
RE Bubble, is, really, a mis-nomer–encouraged by the MSM, just an easy characterization of, a facet, of the explosive “Monetary”/Credit-Growth we’ve seen ramping, aggressively, for the last ~15+ years..
~~
ahab,
re: PIG, countries are not known by manicured single-variable Macroeconomic statistics, alone.
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Re unemployment, one thing to note is that US unemployment is always understated vis-a-vis European unemployment, because of their safety nets and the way we calculate employment (which doesn’t sound like something adjusted for in this study).
We count part-time workers (seeking full-time jobs) as employed; a similarly situated European would simply be on welfare and counted as unemployed.
Throw in the fact that Europeans have enjoyed longer vacations, better benefits and higher pay/hour for median workers, and I think the American “advantage” was pretty clearly always overstated.
Trickle down economics never worked the way it was drawn up, and it cost us about $10 trillion (the debt added up to fund those supply side tax cuts) in the process.
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Of course, that same “flexibility” seems likely to contribute to a more rapid recovery.
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:43 pm
But wait….Obama hopes for `leaner, meaner’ GM and Chrysler
sorry to be so cynical but after billions of $ in gov bailout this pretender of business Pres has audacity to say this ?
just more PABLUM for the unwashed masses
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:49 pm
super_trooper:
You are forgetting about part of the point of job protections in Europe. Europe, for the most part, is content with shuffling along GDP wise. They aren’t(and weren’t) trying to over heat their economy like here in the US. Of course there are exceptions(Spain, Iceland).
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:53 pm
“While it’s too soon to say they’re out of the woods, ‘the government has set up a situation where the banks can hardly lose’, says James Galbraith, economist, professor and author of ‘The Predator State: How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too’.
“Beyond the TARP funds – which Galbraith calls an ‘unproductive use of Federal borrowing’ – banks are benefiting from lending programs that effectively allow them to borrow at zero and reinvest in Treasuries at around 3%. ‘A bank doesn’t have to do anything to make money,’ he says. ‘The banks’ return on equity is going to be very good. They’re going to be able to restore their finances.’
“While this is good for banks and a justification for the sector’s recent rally, the problem is the government’s ‘free money’ program means banks have little or no incentive to do any actual lending. Combined with rising unemployment and the ongoing housing crisis, this means any recovery is likely to be muted, at best, Galbraith says. Furthermore, anyone hoping for a return anytime soon to the salad days of the mid-2000s is delusional.”
What did we ultimately sacrifice by implementing TARP and how long will it take to find out?
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Calvin:
w/this: “You are forgetting about part of the point of job protections in Europe. Europe, for the most part, is content with shuffling along GDP wise. They aren’t(and weren’t) trying to over heat their economy like here in the US. Of course there are exceptions(Spain, Iceland).”
if you understood the impact of Chinese Imports on Italian Manufacturing, alone, you’d be piping different notes..
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:16 pm
@ben22
James K. Galbraith also hd this fine post last April
No Return to Normal –
http://bit.ly/PVISW
The chance of a return to normal depends, in turn, on the banking strategy. To Obama’s economists a “normal” economy is led and guided by private banks.
But, is this a realistic hope? Is it even a possibility?
Geithner’s banking plan would prolong the state of denial. It involves government guarantees of the bad assets, keeping current management in place and attempting to attract new private capital. (Conversion of preferred shares to equity, which may happen with Citigroup, conveys no powers that the government, as regulator, does not already have.) The idea is that one can fix the banks from the top down, by reestablishing markets for their bad securities. If the idea seems familiar, it is: Henry Paulson also pressed for this, to the point of winning congressional approval. But then he abandoned the idea. Why? He learned it could not work.
The oddest thing about the Geithner program is its failure to act as though the financial crisis is a true crisis—an integrated, long-term economic threat—rather than merely a couple of related but temporary problems, one in banking and the other in jobs. In banking, the dominant metaphor is of plumbing: there is a blockage to be cleared. Take a plunger to the toxic assets, it is said, and credit conditions will return to normal. This, then, will make the recession essentially normal, validating the stimulus package. Solve these two problems, and the crisis will end. That’s the thinking.
***************************
James K. Galbraith is using ‘return to normal’ to the bubble fueled economy where debt does not matter that the US has has since the 1980′s
However this cannot work because America is swimming in debt – http://www.usdebtclock.org ding ding ding !
1) The projected budget deficit for 2009 is $2 trillion
2) The debt-drowned United States debt is already 350 percent of G.D.P and rising fast i.e. $57 Trillion in unfunded liabilities )
3) The Fed is now holding $10 Trillion of ‘assets’ ( mostly toxic ) transferred from too big to fail banks.
4) Other countries are now buying less of our debt
Obama has given Trillions to the too big to fail banks vs $1.2 Trillion on Stimulus.
Obama strategy: try to restore great big chunks of Big Shitpile with $12 trillion because they’re worthless, now and forever – unless the peak real estate values of the bubble can miraculously be restored.
I say bullshit !
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:17 pm
@Super
Per the article, unemployment is calculated differently by the EU and the US, but there is a firm that normalizes the European rate so it can be compared to the American version. It’s apples to apples.
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:22 pm
hoffer-
the China thing is a conundrum- they are a beast destroying whole industries of other countries- if they let their currency float- things will even out-but-
the short term pain will the crash of the USD-
what to do?
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:32 pm
franklin411 @6:17 -
doesn’t the US have 6 different measures of unemployment?
John Williams has the 7th
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:39 pm
And their unemployment benefits are a lot better than they are here.
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Kudlow would love the Galbraith book.
I though this verse was most telling:
The ideology of free markets is bankrupt, but the US is not. The path is clear: re-regulation, planning, standards (including wage controls), and coming to grips with the nation’s global responsibilities.
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:45 pm
OTOH, who’s to say that the Euro’s unemployment rate won’t surpass ours before all this is over?
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Peter Schiff had some interesting comments- ties into my post above-
Sell U.S. stocks, sell U.S. bonds, sell the dollar and protect your wealth by going abroad, said Peter Schiff. When [the U.S.] decouples, the world will thrive,” Schiff told CNBC. “The world doesn’t need our consumption, we need their production. The global economy is fine without propping up the U.S. economy. We are in serious, serious trouble.”
Schiff said it’s not only a possibility, but “it’s inevitable” that Brazil and China are eventually going to dump the dollar as the international currency of choice.
“As far as I’m concerned, the U.S. has already lost its AAA rated status,” said Schiff.
can’t say I agree with everything he says- but the dumping of the USD is definitely a probability- and the AAA thing- well we know that doesn’t mean anything
May 23rd, 2009 at 6:55 pm
@Ahab:
I like Peter’s father Irwin a lot better. What cell block do they put 81 year old tax evaders in anyway?
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1900233,00.html?imw=Y
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:01 pm
The American capitalist system started a long slide since TR’s trust busting and his third cousin pretty much killed it. Let’s get over this idea that America has been a captialist society at any stretch in our lifetimes. We are a social democractic republic, similar to the European economies. What the hell do you call Social Secutity, Medicare, Medicaid, Bush’s Folly of Medicare Part D, FUTA, SUTA, the Department of Energy, the Department of Education, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Agriculture, the FCC, the ICC, the minimum wage, No Child Left Behind Act, the FMLA, etc. (I’ll stop for the sake of brevity). And that’s just at the federal level. No, I don’t want a return to the Gilded Age and the Robber Barons, but it would be refreshing to have a limited public sector and a vigorous private sector. We do not have a capitalist system in America and our problems are systemic.
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Yes Cursive but unfortunately only less than 1% of Americans know that the USA economy is just one BIG Ponzi scheme where elite monied interests make the rules even for shitty bets and where US taxpayers play the fool and foot the bill !
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Ahab,
the ‘China thing’ is no conundrum. Free People cannot compete with Slaves, both Real, and virtual, to be found in the PROC.
it is, actually, contra to MSM Protestations to the contrary, very simple. If ‘Caines want to remain Free they’ll pull the plug on their PROC demand, and, at the same time, Stop Financing it, and Stop greasing the skids for Chinese Imports.
To this day, the False-Flag of “Gloabalization” is nothing more than the Operative Name for creating a Dependent America.
these guyz are very forward, and forward-thinking, about it:
http://www.trilateral.org/about.htm
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64948/ian-bremmer/state-capitalism-comes-of-age
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:35 pm
it is common knowledge that Peter Schiff’s father is a tax protester- does not negate Peter Schiff’s argument-
Discrediting Peter Schiff’s arguments by addressing his father is akin to me discrediting Obama by addressing his aunt who is an illegal alien collecting welfare-
I guess I should be suspicious of any “help” to the poor since his family will directly benefit- using your logic of course
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:35 pm
circle the wagon, eh
i like the opportunity to pick and choose and make my own choices of price v quality
just stop the printing presses and it will all work out just fine
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:37 pm
ahab@7:35 –
do not dignify that post with a reply
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Sick thought.. We need to go to war with Europe. Would help the unemployment situation in both AND stimulate the economies.
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:38 pm
good points hoffer- we know how China treats its people who yearn for freedom-
http://ncb3964.k12.sd.us/year/pics/tiananmen%20square.gif
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:42 pm
and it’s funny- when I was at Tiananmen Square- many Chinese wanted their picture taken with me- they must of thought I was somebody- but no-
just an American wandering around China
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Pat,
Why would you make that comment? Seriously.
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Wes,
the ‘printing press’ is not the only thing perturbing Price Signals in the Marketplace.
thus, your P v. Q reckoning is from a lie that is not dead-level..
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/lie
def. 1, n. #1
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/level
#4 a.
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Pat G just joshing I believe- hard to detect sarcasm- as we have seen on these very threads
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:57 pm
@ Mark E Hoffer @7:46 -
your making me think more than cv wants re our edu sys to teach peeps to think
of course, it is more than about the printing press
i just like that excuse
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:59 pm
ahab,
that may be but there are plenty of things to joke about besides that. I suppose I’m over reacting but I don’t find much funny when it comes to talk of starting wars.
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:00 pm
@call me ahab
Maybe they thought you were David Ortiz? War never solved anything. It only creates more problems.
I agree with your point re: Schiff also.
@ben22
I can sometimes have a sick side of humor. Sorry…didn’t mean to offend.
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:05 pm
ahab,
humility is one thing, Ignorance is another.
w/this: ” they must of thought I was somebody- but no-just an American wandering around China..”
you need to Know that, to Them, “an American” is Somebody.
We have little/to no Idea of how fortunate We have been. Believe it, TROW Knows.
~~
Wes,
I hear you, though, w/ your being a good dude, and all, I’ll say: you should wonder why you like that excuse..
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:08 pm
Mark E Hoffer@8:05 –
I own gold
deflation, first
inflation, second
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:09 pm
@Wes Schott
Absolutely!!
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:18 pm
check out this link
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/Sg7kwKwL1jI/AAAAAAAACoE/qMV9Cv5HhgY/s1600-h/Liquidity+Pyramid.jpg
deflation first – it is not over – Helicopter Ben, probably cannot compensate for this mess
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Pat,
I aint mad at ya, it’s just that I have several family members that have died in wars, an uncle that came home from Vietnam and was never the same and a kid from my high school that I grew up with that died in Iraq. A lot of young kids go into the military b/c that’s the only option they have. Sure, they know what they are getting into but that doesn’t make it any easier. I have never served but I have a great deal of respect for those that have. I just don’t think it’s funny at all. It’s not my place to give you some lecture on this, rather just come to this board to see other commentary is all.
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:27 pm
@km4 7:13
Sigh. I guess that is why inefficient systems have to fail so miserably. Get the popcorn, this is going to be something to watch.
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:28 pm
ben22@8:19 -
Pat was making an economics/finance joke.
Probably not the best weekend for that particular metaphor
luv y’ll on this site – “can’t we just get along” Rodney King
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:39 pm
@ben22
Good! Actually, I’m a disabled vet who served in Nam. And like I said earlier; wars have never solved anything. The Air Farce wouldn’t take me initially as I was too heavy. So, they sent me to San Antonio in the middle of summer and worked my ass off. I lost a lot of weight. That was my first assignment and it was a rude awakening to what the rest of the world might be.
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:41 pm
Shiff got burned on this decoupling crap last year. There is no way to decouple w/0 the whole shooting match going down the tubes. China is too caught up in our debt.
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:42 pm
pat,
don’t even worry about it man. this isn’t my blog so you can say whatever you like.
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:45 pm
thetanman@8:41 -
you are correct sir
however, “it is good to be king” (picture Mel Brooks fondling two hemishperes)
world’s reserve currency – jerk the chain baby
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:46 pm
Cursive @ 8:27pm
Sigh. I guess that is why inefficient systems have to fail so miserably. Get the popcorn, this is going to be something to watch.
Alas after Obama, the beguiled candidate, I’ve had enough of American politics
America IMO is now Darwinian like we’ve not seen in some time i.e. every man and women for themselves.
BOL to everyone and I’m supremely confident that I’ll be a very content survivor and I’m not talking about the pseudo reality show that defines America today ;)
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:48 pm
Wes-
you are a funny dude- that Rodney King quote- inspiring- almost makes me want to do crack
Pat G- no offense taken here- Navy man myself- 5 years stint before I broke down and went to college- war is what it is
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:48 pm
km4 @ 8:46 –
where are you based?
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Wes Schott glad about your reference to The History of The World Part 1 and ironically one of the best movies that defines America today !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGAgu6zI9v0
Count de Money ( Wall St Crooks )
Good To Be The King ( Bush now Obama )
The piss boy with the bucket ( American taxpayers )
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Wes Schott in WA State
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:52 pm
ahab @8:48 -
thanks
but, please don’t start
green shoots are a gateway drug
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:53 pm
km4@ 8:51
nice
rainy
country or city?
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:57 pm
Wes Schott – country on the Olympic Peninsula and best summers in the country ( our payoff season for Nov – Mar )
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:57 pm
enjoy
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:59 pm
also Pat G-
never would pass for David Ortiz-
the Chinese people are polite people- but they do stare- I hooked up with a dude from Cameroon (spoke some passable Chinese) as well as a Canadian and a Brit- to see the summer palace- the dude from Cameroon was getting some serious stares- quite the oddity in China- with many a person trying to take his picture without him noticing -
we just laughed about it
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:59 pm
Well, gang. If I look at the chart correctly, we’ve had unemployment lower than Europe each and every day from 1992 until today. Franklin, can you read the chart? That would be, um, ALL the time.
And your point about socialization is what?
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:02 pm
What is the point, Barry?
From my standpoint, I’d say that due to massive leverage, poor interest rate decisions by the Fed, and other similar thoughts that we are having our worst recession since The GD…unemployment goes up.
End of story.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:04 pm
BnT @9:02
yeah, unemployment up
can’t pay the mortgage
mortgage defaults – all these freakin bonds go bust – can’t have that
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:10 pm
If I hear one more “Bush did it” half-ass thought out idea, I’ll freak. I can understand it in Franklin, his tiny little mind is only half-formed. But no old hands should be looking at a chart from 1992 and making inane political snipes because of the way they see the world..
Chart says 100% of the time, from 1992 to date, we’ve had lower unemployment than more socialist Europe. And you want to tell me that the world’s greatest recession since the 1930′s proves more than 1992 until 2009?
If you came to that conclusion, you’d make even Franklin appear to be a deep thinker….
Come on guys, I come here to get ideas from you…don’t do this to me…
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:20 pm
My uncle was in college when the VW war started. He dropped out and the draft notice wasn’t far behind. His number was such that he volunteered. To Ft Polk La. where he battled chiggers and oppressive heat and then off to Nam. He did a tour and then another one. He got separated from his unit along with a new guy. My uncle knew they were in deep shit, but didn’t tell the other guy. He was afraid the rookie would crap his pants. By some miracle they made it back through hostile jungle. One day he was walking along and stepped on something-he thinks it was a dud shell somebody armed. The 2 guys nearest him were killed and he was blown straight up into the air, and came down minus his clothes and right leg. When he landed he first checked to see if his penis was still there. Hallelujah it was! He didn’t feel much pain at first, so since the radio guy was dead, he called in a medivac. Soon the pain started. They gave him some morphine, which he would later get hooked on, and into the helicopter. He said the jungle was so pretty from the air. When they landed there was blood everywhere. They shoved his gurney down this corridor and at the end were three people who would do a quick triage. Off to surgery. Now all these years later, and many surgeries and mental hospital stays, he’s finally through with the medical crap. And the chicks really dig him. He’s kind of a psychological guru with a calming voice and incredible insights into many things. I almost forgot he went to Spain and the Civil DeGaurdi were checking his papers. There was a scorpion on his fake leg and it stabbed him. Of course he didn’t flinch. Franco’s police eyes got real wide and he could see their admiration.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:20 pm
It also appears that in good times, we will always have a lower unemployment rate than socialist Europe.
Franklin — Sorry kid, you look at a chart which tells you nothing, and recite something you heard in class. 4 :32 pm…
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:25 pm
call me ahab Says
“just an American wandering around China”
I experienced the same thing during my trip to China. Many tourists inTiananmen Square are from areas of China where it would be very rare to see an American.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:28 pm
The chart means zippo boys. Every day for decades we’ve had lower unemployment.
The kid with perfect 4.0 makes a B…he’s still smarter than Franklin. There is no point…
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Why does everyone pick on Frankin411?
I don’t normally agree with him, but I’m not angry with him
Did he do something really bad before my existence?
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Franklin was the father of Rosemary’s baby..
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:38 pm
Franklin never leaves more than 10%, no matter how good the service..
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:38 pm
Franklin was conceived at midnight, on Halloween, in a graveyard…
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Franklin never played with Transformers as a child…
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:43 pm
B in T-
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA- TOO FUNNY
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:50 pm
Wes,
For over a year now every few months another franklin comes to the site and annoys the hell out of everyone here. Then they vanish when things go completely against what they are saying. Last time it was somebody named JM Borchers who went on and on about what he was buying, all the way down.
Before that it was cinefoz.
It’s not that any of us are angry with Franklin, at least I’m not. I actually get a laugh from him on a daily basis and some of what he has to say isn’t all that bad. That said, in him, I think a lot of us see a little Don Luskin, a little Brian Wesbury, some Jerry Bowyer and a little Kudlow which is more CNBC wrapped up in one person than any of us can handle. His optimism is refreshing, but he doesn’t know what he’s talking about when it comes to the markets.
None of us here claim to have all of the answers, but Franklin seems to lack the ability to see any other side of things besides the green shoots/I heart Obama side.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:54 pm
One word sums up socialism-California. Broke, battered and bankrupt. Its everyone’s future. We’ve even got some of them coming to the South, fleeing from the detonation. But in a few years our state budget will be completely blown out too.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:55 pm
Wes, Exactly as Ben 22 says.
He’s the kid that after he annoyed you all day, you finally sent him home with his underwear on his head.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:56 pm
Testing.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:58 pm
b22-
well put-
however- I do think the afore mentioned party enjoys the attention-
and of course there was otto-
who I actually respected more- because he at least had some real world experience- with some rental properties that he managed and had a stake in the game-
borchers- otoh- well- who knows what he was actually doing- hard to believe someone was that naive
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Franklin has moderated his tendency toward irrational optimism. Every now and then, he’s on the correct side of a topic (opinions being neither correct nor incorrect, in the first place). I read his comments, and I hope he keeps commenting.
___________
Wes Schott:
Why does everyone pick on Frankin411?
Did he do something really bad before my existence?
___________
He killed Obi Wan.
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:02 pm
@ Marcus:
I ALWAYS THOUGHT THAT WAS FRANKLIN! Thanks….
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Actually, I like him too. He’ll gain some maturity, and probably turn out fine. I too am a helluva lot dumber now than I was in my early twenties…
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:06 pm
awesome replies
i was jut out checking the green shoots myself
F411 is Barry’s alter ego, no?
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
@ ben22
Excellent characterization of Franklin et al !
Like I said above the j6p of America today is an indentured servant but too bad they don’t know it
And the elites are laughing
Alas after Obama, the beguiled candidate, I’ve had enough of American politics
America IMO is now Darwinian like we’ve not seen in some time i.e. every man and women for themselves.
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:30 pm
ahab,
sure he does, but who doesn’t like some attention. I don’t want franklin to stop posting either. At the very least he gets some debate going.
Bruce,
funny stuff.
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:31 pm
can’t believe I forgot about otto.
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:37 pm
@ BnT
re: f411
LOL on the f411 riff. My wife wanted to know what I was laughing at (now you’ve brought discord into the marriage). Much needed catharsis. I just wish he’d make some sense. Very churlish. I do miss J.M. Borchers and ottovbs, although they were before my air time. Hope the hike was good…
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:54 pm
b22-
we will have to agree to disagree- do not need the advice from a sheltered indoctrinated candy ass- who thinks they understand the world before being in the world-
the way I feel- sorry
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:54 pm
I kinda remember those two – before I existed as well, Borchers and ottovbs.
But, what about George Voit?
good guys and bad guys for Ben to mess with, not Ben22, but, Helicopter Ben. Hmmm. i thought he was BR ‘s alter ego, now I am wondering if he is Bernancke’s- his very self. Give me cover, please, I am not the gold market myself. JPM is jackin’ with me, or doin’ my duty, I cant’ tell anymore.
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:55 pm
ahab, comon. give the kid a break. we are talkin’ about love here.
May 23rd, 2009 at 11:54 pm
ben22 @ 9:50
“I think a lot of us see a little Don Luskin, a little Brian Wesbury, some Jerry Bowyer and a little Kudlow which is more CNBC wrapped up in one person than any of us can handle. His optimism is refreshing, but he doesn’t know what he’s talking about when it comes to the markets”.
– – Well put.
…………………….
However, I want to put in a plug for J.M. Borchers. Last October and November, he said that the PPT would keep AAPL from going below $80/share. I thought he was crazy. And yet, it never really went below $80 for more than a couple of days.
May 24th, 2009 at 12:33 am
@matt
You speculated that BR is posting as f411 and possibly otto and Borchers? I’m too lazy to try tonight, but we need an anagram calculator or some such. Maybe they are all anagrams for BR or some pseudonym variant thereof.
May 24th, 2009 at 7:51 am
can’t say I agree with everything he says- but the dumping of the USD is definitely a probability- and the AAA thing- well we know that doesn’t mean anything
—————-
Actually it means something. Investment policies for pension funds state black on white the grade cutoff for their funds.
Typically, when a downgrade occurs below the cutoff, they HAVE to sell.
The downgrade can also affect the mix which can force the sale of other securities and not necessarily the one downgraded.
May 24th, 2009 at 8:06 am
“the US has caught up with the continent — and is poised to pass them”
Don’t worry. Don’t you know? Unemployment bottoms out after the economy.
But just in case, you may want to stake out that spot under the interstate overpass now, and scout around for a discarded Sub Zero refrigerator box to keep you warm there.
May 24th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Curmudgeons like me need sunny optimists like F411 to provide a backdrop against which wisdom and truth is clearly visible.
If F411 didn’t exist, we’d have to invent him.
@Pat G: War is inevitable. I doubt it will be against any European states (except possibly Russia). More likely a rogue state that acquires nukes. Don’t discount the benefit to the dollar of US military hegemony, particularly with our huge stockpile of nukes. If a real threat to that hegemony materializes that we prove unwilling to fight to eliminate, that would start a dollar crash reminiscent of the late 70′s.
May 24th, 2009 at 8:45 am
danm-
valid point regarding AAA- however- I was in no way indicating that by LOSING that rating it did not mean anything-
only that an investment because it is rated AAA- does not automatically equate to a quality investment- MBS being a prime example- the rating agencies failed miserably and their credibility is found wanting
May 24th, 2009 at 9:35 am
Tech will bail us out:
http://www.semi.org/en/Press/CTR_029791
Billings
(Three-month avg.)
Bookings
(Three-month avg.)
Book-to-Bill
Nov-08
806.8
783.8
0.97
Dec-08
672.4
579.1
0.86
Jan-09
584.2
277.2
0.47
Feb-09
525.5
258.4
0.49
March 2009 (final)
438.3
245.6
0.56
April 2009 (prelim.)
389.9
253
0.65
Er, not.
May 24th, 2009 at 9:44 am
@BinT
Re: http://www.semi.org/en/Press/CTR_029791
…and meanwhile, all the MM’s who they trot out on TV are telling us that “inventories had gotten SO LOW that they were in the process of being re-stocked”…
I’d hate to see what those numbers would look like if we HADN’T been doing all this so-called RE-STOCKING…
I take it that Franklin & his buddies are waiting for some arbitrary day in July or something that they’re going to STORM BEST BUY and load up on the latest gadget.
May 24th, 2009 at 9:49 am
cvienne,
if peep had half a wit, these “Low Inventory” reports would scare the S*** out of them..
BnT,
as you know, Book-to-Bill is the EKG of the “Tech”-Sector..
May 24th, 2009 at 10:01 am
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-retirement24-2009may24,0,885521.story
Early retirement claims increase dramatically
Reporting from Washington — Instead of seeing older workers staying on the job longer as the economy has worsened, the Social Security system is reporting a major surge in early retirement claims that could have implications for the financial security of millions of baby boomers.
…There is always another side of the nose to the grindstone forever theory…
May 24th, 2009 at 10:19 am
@Bruce in TN
So much for MM’s waiting for those “capital inflows” to replenish the 401k’s and bid up equity prices…
When Lloyd reads that story, do you think he’ll be FIRST to the door, or do you think he’ll be nice and let others pass through out of courtesy?
May 24th, 2009 at 10:33 am
BnT,
that point about SocSec is another good ex. of how the “Conventional Wisdom” screws peep that don’t think for themselves..
towit, the Vast majority Should elect the lower payout starting at 62. If they wait til’ 65, the difference takes ~15 years–arguably, when it has lower utility, if they last that long–to make up..
May 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
@cvienne…also older workers opt out…less income tax….more ss government outflows…just another nail in the debt coffin…
May 24th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Mark:
It is always the same …..until it isn’t.
May 24th, 2009 at 11:02 am
@Bruce in Tn (10:34)
That notion is EXACTLY something that the present Administration is not calculating properly (less tax revenues in the future – due to people either opting for early retirement, OR, simply saying “screw it”, if the USG is going to tax me to kingdom come, I’ll just quit and accept a more modest way of life)…
I’m not “blaming” the Administration for not calculating that factor (I’ll make Franklin’s argument for him here)…I mean, how can the OMB sit there and say “OK let’s see, probably since what we’re doing here is creating a “moral hazard”, and probably since it will induce a macro behavioral shift with regards to consumption and incentive to work, we’d better stay conservative with our budget expenditures”…
it is impossible for them to reason a theoretical argument like that…So they default to previous GDP forecasts and model their expectations (and expenditures) off of that…Like state & local governments spending all the tax revenues from freshly minted homeowners a few years ago…
So now, not only is the USG spending money we don’t have, it’s OVER spending money that will never have (but had expected to), when revenues come in light…
I tell you, I personally have given up…From here on out, I’ll just cautiously manage the stash I have, but not subject myself to generating revenue for hoardes of people standing in line for benefits…
As Maggie Thatcher put it…
“The problem with s*****ism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money”…
May 24th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Mark,
I’ve run that break-even on SS for so many people. A lot of them still refuse to take it at the first date eligible even after showing that break-even to them. Often the clients come in with an article that tells them how it could cost them in the very long run. None of the studies can account for all the variables, how many take it early, now many don’t take it, etc.
What happens is people see the larger number at age 65 or 66 and there is nothing you can tell them to talk them out of what they “saw”
May 24th, 2009 at 11:26 am
ben22,
are you still coming up w/ ~15 years to b/e?
btw, you may want to watch Rollover , to go w/ Wall Street, from ’81, w/ KK, & J. Fonda.
May 24th, 2009 at 11:44 am
mark,
yeah it’s typically around 15 years, sometimes a little higher or lower.
My main thing is that I have no idea how long anyone is going to live, or how long ss is going to last so I typically push people pretty hard to take the money as soon as they can. like anything else, some listen, some don’t.
May 24th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
ben22,
mortality rates are always a crap-shoot, ask an actuary, but show them a mortality table.
as a + show them the long-term chart of the puchasing power of the U$D since 1913, and a chart of Total Debt, from as far back as you can find..
also, Inflation info from John Williams..
after that, if they, still, wait, 99 times out of 100, hand them their Hat, and an ACAT, and bid them adieu~
they’re wasting your Time, that which you cannot buy w/ the fees they pay you..
May 24th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
As usual, this otherwise educated group has shown total ignorance about what’s going on in China! How many of you have actually been there? Recently?
I would never defend the PRC, but you gotta understand that a strong central power has always kept this nation together and maintained stability. Justice may be a previous commodity in the PRC but the people are not slaves! China has always has a surplus of cheap and skilled labor, and so it goes…
And, they have labor standards! Who’da thought! The sweatshops have now gone elsewhere, and now quality products are made in the PRC – take for instance that amazing Shanghai-Suzhou corridor where 1000+ Japanese firms have all of their production.
And the PRC’s infrastructure is moving along at an amazing pace, they will soon have a national highway system. NOT TO MENTION universal health care and free public education…
Even minor provincial cities are sparkling and new, with new universities, highway systems, sewer, etc.
The government may still tightly control media and information, but with 600+ million cell phone users, how much can they control?
It might make Americans feel better to think that the PRC is still far “behind” us. But if you still think so… don’t blink! It won’t be this way for long! Their middle class is growing quickly. Ten years ago most tourists there were 90%+ foreigners, now it’s just the opposite. Now the middle class in the PRC has $$$ for leisure.
Wake up!
May 24th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
@kukiniloa
Now if they only can figure out how to manage their version of “Dust Bowl” (which is destroying irrigable land & making Beijing a mess)…
…as well as other OTHER infrastructure elements designed not to serve as the manufacturing base for the world, BUT, things that will provide benefits for its own citizens…
Note: I don’t discount that the LATTER will eventually prove favorable…I’m simply pointing out the fact that CHINA NEEDS TO TURN TO INTERNAL FUNCTIONS NOT EXTERNAL ONES…The ROW is not poised to benefit from this…(as far as I can see)…
May 24th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
“The government may still tightly control media and information, but with 600+ million cell phone users, how much can they control?”
“The sweatshops have now gone elsewhere..”
“they have labor standards..”
and you’re telling us to wake up?
did you enjoy your Tour?
do you have Video of the “Quality” working conditions?
see: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=sweatshops+in+china 4 starters..
and understand that, in this instance, the acronym FY doesn’t stand for “Fiscal Year”.
May 24th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
I can’t believe that anyone could look at that graph showing 15 straight years (at least) of lower unemployment in the US and conclude that they would prefer the European system because the US rate has just passed the European rate for an unknown future period of time…