Continuing Claims vs. Economically Lagging Unemployment
Bob Bronson took a closer look at what the Unemployment data was suugesting. His view: Continuing Claims are contradicting the widely accepted view that “Less Bad Emplyment data = end of recession.”
Bronson:
“Continuing Claims reported [Friday] suggest the economically-lagging unemployment rate will increase from 8.9% to 9.6% in a few months, and, of course, that will not be the peak in the unemployment rate, since the change in Continuing Claims is nowhere near zero.”
And, according to Floyd Norris, Continuing Claims are getting worse, not better (See Unemployment Grows More Painful).
Bob’s chart (below) shows that (not surprisingly) there exists a close relationship between any changes in Continuing Claims and the Unemployment rate. What many pundits seem to be unaware of is that (at least in the past 2 recessions) continuing claims plateau before new claims peak.
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Hence, why Bob does not believe unemployment is anywhere near its peak, with all that this means for mortgage defaults and foreclosures.>
How much worse? Bob suggests that you bullishly extrapolate the “less worse” downtick in the Continuing Claims just reported, assuming the trend continues in a straight line without interruption, which is extremely unlikely (see the dotted arrows in chart below). He reaches an Unemployment Rate of 13.0% before yearend: 32 weeks times an average 0.15% increase (declining from 0.30% to 0.00%) added to 8.9% = 13.3%.
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Bob’s final conclusion: “Unemployment data that leads indicates the stock market will make new lows.”Bob Bronson had a few good charts looking at Unemployment/Continuing Claims versus the widely accepted view that “Less Bad = end of recession.”
May 10th, 2009 at 8:42 am
So if unemployment can hit 13% by year end, U6 can hit 25%?!? At least, and hopefully, that will keep a lid on inflation. Oil has certainly sniffed the stock market’s recovery binge of the past few weeeks; I’m sure the travel industry is glad that’s occurring. Will we be over $3 a gallon for gas by July 4th?
May 10th, 2009 at 8:53 am
In Michigan or any other assembly state, if GM shuts down for 8-9 weeks, can the workers file for unemployment over that short time period in today’s environment?
…just wondering.
May 10th, 2009 at 8:55 am
Without the census hires, we’d have been over 600k again…
May 10th, 2009 at 8:58 am
Zero Hedge had an interesting analysis on unemployment that said we have NEVER seen continuing claims this high 4 months after the peak in new claims. They are saying Jan ‘09 was the peak in new claims.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Now that CNBC is telling everyone it’s safe to get back into the water again, who will be the first to yell “Shark!” as in Jaws? I see a fin formation developing in those charts above…
May 10th, 2009 at 9:18 am
I have a friend who recently lost his job. He was fortunate enough to hire on to the census. He makes $11.50 an hour driving around to index/catalog homes for later follow-up. This phase of the Census will be over in 2 to 4 weeks and he will be unemployed again. He will then get a second opportunity to join the census when it re-engages the next phase. I don’t know when that is. Oh, and contrary to Becky Quick’s assertion, as an HR professional, he is currently underemployed and underpaid relative to his former position. Welcome to the new economy.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:20 am
While I agree with the general premise, that there are some parts of employment that are not lagging indicators, and that we seem to be nowhere near a bottom, I take issue with that last chart. The slope on the his projection is much too flat compared to previous moves.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:21 am
Bruce — 8:53 a — it won’t be just Michigan. Indiana, Ohio, Georgia, California, Tennessee — I’m sure I have missed several — along with a plethora of suppliers, will be impacted, with the loss in revenue “trickling up” to impact restaurants, merchants of all sorts, cities and states (tax base) in addition to the ripple effects from mortgages that were living paycheck-to-paycheck becoming in default and headed for foreclosure.
If this doesn’t knock the legs out from under whatever budding recovery is foreseen by some, then we are headed for all-time record highs in the stock markets — fueled by unemployment checks, I guess.
While I have come to seriously appreciate the amount that the government can prop up the markets with happytalk and a big ol’ bunch of collusion from the banksters, I fail to see how they can make it stick over this coming summer.
The banksters had better be sellin’ their stocks and raising their capital Real Soon Now, as they don’t have a lotta time left before the stress tests look comically easy.
Maybe we’ll make new lows, and maybe not (as I said, I’ve been impressed by the gummint’s ability to lead the markets by the nose), but the odds of the levels we are at today being sustainable over the summer are pretty slim.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:23 am
Chief Tomahawk Says:
May 10th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Now that CNBC is telling everyone it’s safe to get back into the water again, who will be the first to yell “Shark!” as in Jaws? I see a fin formation developing in those charts above…
reply:
——————
CNBC Happy Babble will never stop. Science has recently discovered it to be powered by a form of perpetual motion. Unfortunately, hot air and bubbles are low octane except under very controlled conditions that don’t reflect reality. Under specially cloistered conditions, Happy Babble can be made to look like an impressive power source. Unfortunately, it has yet to master gravity.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:31 am
And regarding the automakers summer shutdown — when they re-open (assuming that all of them DO reopen — Saturn looks pretty iffy at the moment, which has a huge impact for Tennessee), following a massive resizing of the business to aim for leaner operations, lower production volumes, etc, the number of jobs that will be restarting will be significantly lower than those that are here today, and even those that continue into the fall are likely to do so at significantly reduced wage rates.
This is another facet of deflation, the crumbling of wages, that has only recently begun to be felt. Bernanke better kick his monetary printing presses into hyperdrive, or we will have a strong dollar crushing a very weak economy.
Somewhere along the way, the boy geniuses are going to realize that they cannot have a strong dollar, breathing banksters, and a breathing economy (and maybe they knew this from the outset and have already made their choices).
Pick any two, but realize that while the banksters may fund the election campaigns, it’s the people that cast the votes.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:34 am
The U6 projection of 25% is comparable to the first greap depression right
May 10th, 2009 at 9:50 am
constantnormal:
Maybe the boy geniuses thought policy could trump reality. A strong dollar will kill us — privately and governmentally. If a strong dollar is truly what they’ve committed to, they have put us, and themselves, on the road to perdition.
Interestingly, you mentioned votes. Other than gold, the vote is the only thing that holds its value over time (if for no other reason than the fact that neither can be created by fiat). For years, votes have been given away cheaply. I think — at least I hope — that those days are gone forever.
May 10th, 2009 at 10:08 am
Just finished watching the panel discussion on FOX Sunday Morning. Consensus of the panel: Short-term bullish, long-term cautious. Chris Wallace asked Kimberly Strassel, of the WSJ, why the government would have weakened the stress test and, rather than to explain that the banksters had cajoled the administration, she said the Treasury didn’t want to burn through the rest of the TARP cash, yet. Maybe this is why more people aren’t outraged? Perhaps because they don’t understand that we are on the road to perdition becuase of the outrageous greed and arrogance of the banking kleptocracy and their willing accomplices in government?
May 10th, 2009 at 10:26 am
Here is a chart comparing the levels of U6 unemployment 1929-1932 vs 2006-2009:
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/04/unemployment-u-6-data-versus-the-great-depression.html
May 10th, 2009 at 10:29 am
When did the birth death model come into use?
May 10th, 2009 at 10:31 am
Cursive — if you’re watching Sunday morning Faux news talking heads, then you have an extraordinary bent for masochism, and should immediately seek treatment.
May 10th, 2009 at 10:34 am
MA,
wouldn’t you think that, given our new/wondrous electronic digi-ballots, our Votes, now more then ever before, have been turned into ‘Fiat’, as well?
especially given that these Sweethearts are in charge of the *Results:
http://www.baselinemag.com/c/a/Intelligence/Voter-News-Service-What-Went-Wrong/
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=National+Election+Pool
Cursive,
w/this: “Maybe this is why more people aren’t outraged? Perhaps because they don’t understand that we are on the road to perdition becuase of the outrageous greed and arrogance of the banking kleptocracy and their willing accomplices in government?”
“Perhaps because they don’t understand..” I get the impression that a lot of peep, already, understand that, but they’re crossing their fingers/hoping for the best. b/c, otherwise, they’d have to fully wake-up and do something about it/something different..
May 10th, 2009 at 10:34 am
“What many pundits seem to be unaware of is that (at least in the past 2 recessions) continuing claims plateau before new claims peak.”
—
First of all, the sample size is too short. Why look at two relatively mild recessions? Why not look at the more severe events, like 1982? Could it be because his thesis doesn’t hold water?
Second of all, political conditions are much different than they were in 1990 or 2001. Then, we had Republican administrations that were unwilling to help average Americans get through the crisis. People were thrown off of government assistance programs very early, and so they had to get jobs raking leaves and cleaning toilets, driving the unemployment rate down. Now, we have a Democratic administration that works for the American people. We don’t need displaced workers cleaning toilets. We need them in job training programs. We don’t need them in seedy motels. We need them paying their mortgages. Hence, we doubled the duration of unemployment insurance, from 26 weeks to 52 weeks.
Even if I accept Bronson’s argument that the fact that continuing claims have peaked before the actual unemployment rate in the last two mild recessions holds water in our current severe recession, the plain fact is that the extension of unemployment benefits makes continuing claims the most lagging of all employment indicators.
May 10th, 2009 at 10:36 am
constantnormal Says: May 10th, 2009 at 10:31 am
cn,
right? it’s a struggle maintaining “Sociological objectivity” watching that G*rbage, it bewilders me that others can accept that stuff as *Straight..
May 10th, 2009 at 10:37 am
I don’t know why some here complain about Becky Quicks commentary, I know why she is on the show, I tune in most of the time to check out her legs.
May 10th, 2009 at 10:41 am
franklin,
do you know any ‘former professionals’ that can continue their personal Budgets on UI payments?
and, w/this: ” Now, we have a Democratic administration that works for the American people.”
what do you mean?
May 10th, 2009 at 10:47 am
@ constantnormal 10:31
Yes. They are all bad. I prefer Chris Wallace to David Gregory, Bernie Schaffer, Soledad O’Brien or Keith Olbermann; but, in reality, it is the Blogophere that is our safe haven for credible news sources. Thank you to Barry Ritholtz and company….
P.S. Barry – FYI, I found your site after an appearance you made on TechTicker last Fall. I have been enjoying it ever since.
May 10th, 2009 at 10:52 am
@Mark
In California, the average benefit is about equal to working a full time minimum wage job (ie about $1200/mo). The maximum benefit is $1800/mo. Nobody will be living like a king on $1200 a month, but $1200 a month is about $1200 more than $0.
My main point is that Bronson’s argument is completely bankrupt. He’s comparing apples (mild recessions in which you could only file a continuing claim for 26 weeks and your health care was immediately eliminated) to pumpkins (a severe recession in which you can file a continuing claim for 52 weeks, plus you get to keep your health care).
May 10th, 2009 at 11:05 am
MEH:
Yes, electronic voting is worrisome. I’m all for dying our fingers to show we voted, and for whom (F* the secret ballot — secrets are where lawlessness is hidden. I’d rather have accuracy). If it’s good enough for the thriving, vibrant democracy that is Afghanistan (or is it Iraq?), it’s good enough for us.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:07 am
@MEH 10:34
On your concept of “fully waking up,” that is the rub. We’re a zombie nation full of zombie banks and a zombie economy. BTW, this is all the rage at sport stadiums:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOUgGA0lsog&feature=related
The recognizable part starts at 1:57. Very fitting, indeed, for the times.
Now, here is my thesis. Maybe we’re headed into a Japan-style Lost Decade/Lost Generation, but that is where the comparison will end. The Japanese do not have a history of civic activism. Americans, though we may be collectively sleep-walking now, share the history of Patrick Henry, Thomas Paine and a War for Independence. We are not the sort to take things lying down. I don’t know what the social turn will look like, but I’d prefer not to see it. It is going to be nasty once the public’s awakening begins. I would not want to be a banker when it happens.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:07 am
franklin,
the ‘continuing claims’ v. extended benefits point is an interesting one, and, certainly, his comparos would be meatier if they included ‘82, but, be careful, the idea that UI bennies of ~$1800/mo are going to “keep them paying their mtg.” are spurious, at best..
and, w/this: “Then, we had Republican administrations that were unwilling to help average Americans get through the crisis.” and: ” Now, we have a Democratic administration that works for the American people.”
take it EZ on the Kool-Aid 151, one of these days you’ll learn that Saturday Night is too close to Monday Morning–especially when there’s Work to be done.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:14 am
While the current administration might not be perfect, it’s a far cry better than the last. Once again, less bad might not be good, but it’s certainly better (especially when considering TBP/things not economic). There’s plenty of room for improvement.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Bruce:
Yes they can file. The Unionized GM and Chrysler employees will also get supplemental pay that makes up part of the gap between unemployment pay and their normal wage.
constantnormal:
The Chevrolet Traverse is assembled in the “Saturn” Springhill plant. I believe Springhill is already slated to be closed and Traverse production moved in with its platform-mates. Saturn’s products are all produced at other plants now on shared production lines. Saturn does still have its Parts Distribution Center in Springhill.
Franklin411:
The maximum unemployment benefit is $392/wk. I could keep food on the table and the utilities on with that but the mortgage and the note on the car not so much. I might be odd (in sight of forty, blue collar, and I’ve collected three weeks of unemployment in my life) but if my job went away tomorrow I wouldn’t be sitting on my couch for 26 weeks (much less 52).
May 10th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Franklin411:
I failed to note I was referring to the maximum rate where I live (Indiana)
May 10th, 2009 at 11:29 am
The second derivative still looks terrific.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:30 am
My last comment just went to blog heaven. Anyone else having problems? I’ll try again.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:34 am
@MA 11:14
The POTUS just strong-arm a private group of citizens who were unhappily in the pursuit of happiness. So I ask you, how were the events of the last week, wherein BHO and company took a sledgehammer to the reputations of teh non-TARP Chrysler bondholders, not a significantly new low in the American Experience. There is much talk of Socialism these days, but what of Fascism? How were BHO’s words and actions not Fascist? We may be on the short road to Perdition.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:36 am
If a comment contains that phrase “Fascism” does it always go to Blog Heaven. I’ve tried to posts regarding the administration’s handling of the non-TARP bondholders and they’ve both failed.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:38 am
OK, that worked, so here goes:
@MA 11:14
How were the actions of POTUS last week, in regards to the non-TARP Chrysler bondholders, not a Fascist development? Before you answer, imagine that you were the focus of the bully pulpit.
May 10th, 2009 at 11:40 am
franklin,
also, overlook this: “California, Almost Broke, Nears Brink”
“..Since the fall, when lawmakers began trying to attack the gaps in the $143 billion budget that their earlier plan had not addressed, the state has fallen into deeper financial straits, with more bad news coming daily from Sacramento. The state, nearly out of cash, has laid off scores of workers and put hundreds more on unpaid furloughs. It has stopped paying counties and issuing income tax refunds and halted thousands of infrastructure projects…”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/17/us/17cali.html?_r=1
http://www.blogrunner.com/snapshot/D/0/4/california_struggles_to_close_a_projected_41_billion_deficit/
MA,
the ‘Secret Ballot’ isn’t the problem, it’s the “secret counting”/ non-verifiable results..
Do you think ATM usage would have taken off if those early machines didn’t give you a receipt?
Paper Ballots x2, one for the Voter, one for the Count, and a couple of days for the ‘results’ is, to me, all the more complex this racket needs to be..
Cursive,
I hear ya, they don’t call that “Trance Music” for nothing..and..
May 10th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Cursive,
w/this: “We are not the sort to take things lying down.”
see: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=soy+estrogenic+effects+ADM
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=soy+dangers
and wonder if that’s, really, the case..
May 10th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Cursive:
I’m not saying that we’re not in a fascist system — only that this iteration is somewhat less troubling than the last. It’s kind of like the difference between the East German Stasi of the cold-war era, and the next less bad secret police state. As I said: less bad does not mean good.
As I also said in my last comment, what’s “better” under the current administration is not necessarily economic. We have better diplomacy, we don’t disappear people, gays aren’t vilified by the government that represents them, no-bid, crony contracts have fallen by the wayside, middle management is no longer being populated exclusively by graduates of theological “universities”, and there is some semblance of intellectual integrity (science is not shat upon).
I hope this clears things up.
May 10th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
am i the only one to notice that there`s an error in the analysis. if you look at the time scale on the first chart it is 1 year early!
i did the study for myself and it is true. I included the 1980 and 1982 recessions. Unfortunately, the study loses much of its predictive value if done correctly, but the top in claims still coincides with or lags just by 1-2 months the bottom in the stock markets (measured by the SP500).
Barry, i hope i did not do a stupid mistake and mess this whole thing up but I checked and double checked.
May 10th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Remember also that UI is taxable income…
May 10th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
@ MA 12:20
Sorry to be late in responding, I was attending Mass. Yes, that clears it up somewhat. We agree on the current threat of Fascism. I am in no way defending the Bush administration, but I think the diplomatic naivete of this administration is far worse and did I miss the vilification of homosexuals? Do you have a link on that or the takover of “middle management” by by graduates of “theological ‘universities’”? I work for a start-up developing a prescription-filling robot and I’m not aware of any governmental or noteworthy private effort to stiffle science, applied or theoretical; but perhaps I missed something of which you can make me aware.
May 10th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
adid — if the year marker in the first chart is for 12/31 of the respective years, it works out fine.
So, it appears the question is … when will Continuing Claims peak?
It seems ludicrous to assume that they already have, with the auto employees still to weigh in on things …
,,, maybe when Fiat takes over Chrysler, they’ll hire a whole buncha folks!
May 10th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
@ MEH 11:47
You are incredibly well-read, but what does the nascent fear of the danger of soy got to do with the long-standing trait of the American people to finally and fully confront our national problems. Slavery is a vile social cancer and yet our early democracy accepted it for another roughly 60 years before that fateful war the divided and cost us dearly. I’m not suggesting another civil war, but will we see a similar social upheaval here once the electorate realizes what has been hoisted upon them?
May 10th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
constantnormal, if that were the case, then the chart would suggest, for example, that the 1990 bottom in the stock market occurred at the end of 1991.
May 10th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
@franky: B in Tn got it right. You really shouldn’t blog until your Mom dries you off after your bath.
I take back everything positive I may have said about you.
What planet are you from anyway? California dreaming?
May 10th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
There is way too much slack in the economy. Too much labor. Too much productive capacity. Too much retail capacity. Too much finance capacity.
With so much excess capacity, the FED’s zero interest rate policy does not incentivize business to add more capacity. The overhang in housing inventory does not incentive builders to build.
So this time the FED seems to be targeting the “wealth effect” to simuluate consumption. To do that, they announced plans to swap $1.2 trillion of freshly manufactured cash, out of thin air, in exchange for treasurys and agencies. And with interest rates so low, and no desire by business to add to real productice capacity given there is too much excess capacity already, the only place for that $1.2 trillion to go is to bid up financial asset prices. The bet the FED is making is that people will increase consumption if they open their 401Ks and brokerage statements and see their investments have stopped losing value. I think this may be the first time they’ve explicitly targeted the “wealth effect” to try to stimulate consumption.
So they’ve succeeded in getting financial asset prices up off the floor, for now. It remains to be seen if consumers respond by increasing consumption. I am skeptical. I don’t sense alot of pent up demand and demographics are working against them. Baby boomers are moving into retirment age, and having gone through 2 stock market crashes in 10 years. I think this “new frugality” is more than a fad — even with interest rates so low.
I just don’t knw how this rally is anything more than a liquidity driven rally that ends badly.
May 10th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
@ Groty 1:48
Excellent post. That about sums it up. Taxpayer dollars going to prop of the banking kleptocracy and everything else is dying. This will end badly. By 2020, we may be reading Mish’s posts from today and thinking that he sounds like franklin411.
May 10th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
@groty: well said. agree.
May 10th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Marcus Aurelius Says:
I’m all for dying our fingers to show we voted, and for whom (F* the secret ballot — secrets are where lawlessness is hidden. I’d rather have accuracy).
from George Orwell 1984:
“Now that he recognized himself as a dead man it became important to stay alive as long as possible. Two fingers of his right hand were inkstained. It was exactly the kind of detail that might betray you.”
I couldn’t disagree more with your assertion- governments are not always your friend and it may not be wise to let those in power know what you are “thinking” by voting for a particular party/candidate-
thought police comes to mind
May 10th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Cursive,
w/this: “but what does the nascent fear of the danger of soy got to do with the long-standing trait of the American people to finally and fully confront our national problems.”
I hear you, it seems tangential, at best..
But, these ‘fears’ are not Nascent, they have been Known for a Long time. One point to be made of it is that w/ the body of evidence available, people still equate Soy with ‘Good for you’, while the effects of that food is causing them no end of medical maladies. And, another, they don’t even grasp that the estrogenic properties of Soy are Feminizing the population across the Spectrum..ever wonder why Demand for IVF is ever-increasing?
and, back to this: “We are not the sort to take things lying down.” to put it simply, Braveheart wasn’t eating Edamame..
also, you might as well add: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Flouride+docile
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Mercury+brain+damage
and, yes, there’s more
forgetting the fact that most ‘Caines have been taught to sneer at the Founding Fathers, or, probably think Thomas Paine is a new competitor of Tim Horton’s..
this is, truly, the stuff of an Aldous Huxley novel, now in Dolby TrueHD
May 10th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Does the 8.9% unemployment rate include those on the extended benefits?
@Franklin411
When you get laid-off you do not simply get to keep your health coverage.
You have to pay for it out of your unemployment pay. COBRA is not cheap!
There is now a subsidy for those laid-off to help pay for COBRA.
May 10th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Cursive:
As for homosexuals, I’ll leave it to you to do the research. There’s plenty there. Here are a few examples:
________________
Via HuffPo/NPR | February 3, 2009 11:52 AM
On Monday, the Justice Department undid a small part of the damage that top officials caused in a scandal of politicized hiring and firing during the Bush administration. The department rehired an attorney who was improperly removed from her job because she was rumored to be a lesbian.
NPR first broke the story of Leslie Hagen’s dismissal last April, and the Justice Department’s inspector general later corroborated the report.
__________________
From The Hill:
U.S. signs homosexuality decriminalization statement
By Reid Wilson
Posted: 03/18/09 02:53 PM [ET]
Reversing a Bush administration policy, the Obama administration will add the country’s signature to a United Nations statement calling for the decriminalization of homosexuality across the globe.
The statement, spearheaded by France’s delegation to the U.N., also expresses concern with violence based on sexual orientation and gender identity. And it condemns human rights violations against gays and lesbians.
__________________
There’s plenty more, but keep in mind, I’m talking about the entire Bush administration, not just Bush himself.
__________________________
As for theocratic University graduates, Monica Goodling is the prime example of theocratic schools’ prevalence in the BA. But there is more:
“Graduates of Regent University law school have been among the most influential of the more than 150 Regent University alumni hired to federal government positions since President Bush took office in 2001, according to a university website.”
http://www.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2007/04/08/scandal_puts_spotlight_on_christian_law_school/
There was also a statistical overrepresentation of graduates from Liberty University (can’t find the exact number, and tired of looking).
May 10th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Oh yeah, my original comment was in reference to franklin’s original comment (I think). I’m off on a tangent, have twice thoroughly explained that my comment was outside the economic policy realm, and further back and forth is inappropriate to this forum.
May 10th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
@MEH 2:18
Sir, I bow to the random hypertext links that exist within your nerual network. You must catch hell for that, as I do at dinner parties and crawfish boils. I don’t disagree with anything that you say, it’s just that my upbringing makes me “BS-resistant.” I reject anything that is hyped or trendy. My father used to tell me that his father use to repeat an old French saying to him, “Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.” Now, using that principal, I am not the type to believe the eating edamame or soy are what is best for me when mustard greens or spinach are perfectly good and taste much better. I also prefer iceberg lettuce over the very trendy arugula.
I got a chuckle out of the Horton’s/Paine comparo. Yes, I also lament that we have dramatically dumbed down our electorate. Most people would label me a pessimist and, yet, I have an unchecked optimism about America. Not the sort of clap-trap exhibited by our very own franklin411, but an optimism rooted in our ability to finally do the right thing. Before this is over, I dare say that American’s awareness of the ideals, as espoused by Mr. Paine, Mr. Adams, Mr. Jefferson, etc., will have undergone a renaissance.
May 10th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
@ MA 2:40
Perhaps it has been OT, so I will try this small post and maybe we move onto bigger and better things. Your comments were as to the vilification of homosexuals. After reading your links, I am still not aware of any comments or stance of the Bush adminsitration, nor any comments from Dubya himself, that were an open vilification of homosexuals or even homosexual activity. Finally, I have no dog in the fight over Liberty University but I would welcome any change to the current monopoly enjoyed by the alumni hailing from Georgetown, Columbia, Harvard, Princeton, etc. Better yet, why don’t we just downsize or rightsize the federal government and we wouldn’t have to argue over whom to hire.
May 10th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
@Groty well said!!
My philosophy – “when things seem to good to be true…. they general are!”
May 10th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
[...] Continuing claims are a problem – its going to be a while for the system to stabilize itself: There are a couple of trends that deserve mention. While fewer people are losing jobs, the situation continues to look bleak for those who already lost them. If you’ve been out of work for a while, finding another job seems to be harder than ever. And the number of jobs for men in their prime working years is falling at the fastest pace since the figure was first calculated in 1948. [...]
May 10th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Cursive,
w/this:” I have an unchecked optimism about America. Not the sort of clap-trap exhibited by our very own franklin411, but an optimism rooted in our ability to finally do the right thing. Before this is over, I dare say that American’s awareness of the ideals, as espoused by Mr. Paine, Mr. Adams, Mr. Jefferson, etc., will have undergone a renaissance.” know, that I’m of like mind.
with that, you should see:
http://www.nccs.net/
@ U$D .30/ea. it’s the best, legal, steal I know of.
with that, you’ll see, quite clearly, how little the Dept. of Education teaches, the current crop, about the foundations of our system of self-governance.
quite to the contrary of the quote in the upper right-hand corner of that homepage..
also, those links, of mine, above, contain Search sets designed to pull the more inflammatory pages/facets of the Main Topic. You’ll find–if you care to know– with a little extra searching, the basis–in Science, for those claims.
here’s a couple more: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=HFCS+diabetes
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Aspartame+toxicity
and, yes, there’s more..
I’m, really, not interested in being bowed to, I’m way more Interested in not seeing the President of the United States bowing to Foreign Powers, of whatever stripe.
also, if we don’t recognize how deep this goes, those Crawfish boils will be a bittersweet memory..
from above: “…So this time the FED seems to be targeting the “wealth effect” to simuluate consumption. To do that, they announced plans to swap $1.2 trillion of freshly manufactured cash, out of thin air, in exchange for treasurys and agencies. And with interest rates so low, and no desire by business to add to real productice capacity given there is too much excess capacity already, the only place for that $1.2 trillion to go is to bid up financial asset prices. The bet the FED is making is that people will increase consumption if they open their 401Ks and brokerage statements and see their investments have stopped losing value. I think this may be the first time they’ve explicitly targeted the “wealth effect” to try to stimulate consumption…”-Groty
“… freshly manufactured cash, out of thin air, in exchange for treasurys and agencies.”
truly Accurate–How did that become Legal, let alone Ethical?
May 10th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Cursive,
w/this:” I have an unchecked optimism about America. Not the sort of clap-trap exhibited by our very own franklin411, but an optimism rooted in our ability to finally do the right thing. Before this is over, I dare say that American’s awareness of the ideals, as espoused by Mr. Paine, Mr. Adams, Mr. Jefferson, etc., will have undergone a renaissance.” know, that I’m of like mind.
with that, you should see:
http://www.nccs.net/
@ U$D .30/ea. it’s the best, legal, steal I know of.
with that, you’ll see, quite clearly, how little the Dept. of Education teaches, the current crop, about the foundations of our system of self-governance.
quite to the contrary of the quote in the upper right-hand corner of that homepage..
also, those links, of mine, above, contain Search sets designed to pull the more inflammatory pages/facets of the Main Topic. You’ll find–if you care to know– with a little extra searching, the basis–in Science, for those claims.
here’s a couple more: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=HFCS+diabetes
ht tp://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Aspartame+toxicity
and, yes, there’s more..
I’m, really, not interested in being bowed to, I’m way more Interested in not seeing the President of the United States bowing to Foreign Powers, of whatever stripe.
also, if we don’t recognize how deep this goes, those Crawfish boils will be a bittersweet memory..
from above: “…So this time the FED seems to be targeting the “wealth effect” to simuluate consumption. To do that, they announced plans to swap $1.2 trillion of freshly manufactured cash, out of thin air, in exchange for treasurys and agencies. And with interest rates so low, and no desire by business to add to real productice capacity given there is too much excess capacity already, the only place for that $1.2 trillion to go is to bid up financial asset prices. The bet the FED is making is that people will increase consumption if they open their 401Ks and brokerage statements and see their investments have stopped losing value. I think this may be the first time they’ve explicitly targeted the “wealth effect” to try to stimulate consumption…”-Groty
“… freshly manufactured cash, out of thin air, in exchange for treasurys and agencies.”
truly Accurate–How did that become Legal, let alone Ethical?
May 10th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
@ MEH 5:05
Now that’s the spirit! Agreed that it is a steal.
On the matter of crawfish boils and their sustainability. As long as there is an Atchafayala Basin and surnames of the likes of Babineaux, Boudreaux, Breaux, Broussard, Dugas, Fusilier, Gillory, Guidry, Moreau and Thibodeuax (to name a few), then there will always be crawfish boils. When your forefathers floated down the Atlantic seaboard in small bateaux to find a new home thousands of miles away, you tend to be of hardy stock.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
My main point is that Bronson’s argument is completely bankrupt. He’s comparing apples (mild recessions in which you could only file a continuing claim for 26 weeks and your health care was immediately eliminated) to pumpkins (a severe recession in which you can file a continuing claim for 52 weeks, plus you get to keep your health care
———-
Yeah! We’re comparing a period where households were saving 10% of their income (and most managed to keep their home despite rates going up to 18%) to an era where households were saving 0% and living on their margin which has probably been cut off.
Sorry, but those extra UI weeks are pocket change.
May 11th, 2009 at 4:41 am
Unemployment has the same accelerator effect of any economic downturn. The chances of these figures not being manipulated to suit the government would be extremely unlikely.
May 11th, 2009 at 6:15 am
[...] Barry Ritholtz ci propone l’altra faccia della medaglia, un’analisi di Bob Bronson che evidenzia [...]
May 11th, 2009 at 8:38 am
[...] the Big Picture, data that indicates the recent dropoff in job claims doesn’t bode well for the [...]
May 11th, 2009 at 10:34 am
[...] post by Barry Ritholtz on how continuous claims are good predictors of the unemployment rate is worth [...]
May 11th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
How much worse? Bob suggests that you bullishly extrapolate the “less worse” downtick in the Continuing Claims just reported, assuming the trend continues in a straight line without interruption, which is extremely unlikely (see the dotted arrows in chart below). He reaches an Unemployment Rate of 13.0% before yearend: 32 weeks times an average 0.15% increase (declining from 0.30% to 0.00%) added to 8.9% = 13.3%.
————-
This data is dated, as can be seen from the charts. Also not clear how some of the numbers are derived (eg, the .30%, and the “averaging” to obtain the .15% is crude). Berry, where is the original doc by Bronson so these details can be sorted out?
May 11th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Re, previous post, that’s Barry. Sorry.
May 12th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
[...] widać, w czasie poprzednich dwóch recesji, wskaźnik osób ‘kontynuujących bezrobocie’ wyprze… Obecnie wskaźnik ten znajduje się nie tylko na niewidzianych w latach 90′ i 80′ [...]
May 15th, 2009 at 11:46 am
[...] thoughts on the employment report. (Econbrowser, Big Picture, The [...]