Comments on: Continuing Claims vs. Economically Lagging Unemployment

By: Sunday links: offense to defense | HeatUp.com - Internet News

Sunday links: offense to defense | HeatUp.com - Internet News — Fri, 15 May 2009 15:46:09 +0000

[...] thoughts on the employment report. (Econbrowser, Big Picture, The [...]

By: » Głębsze spojrzenie na amerykański rynek pracy Trystero: Niezależny blog finansowy

Tue, 12 May 2009 20:06:10 +0000

[...] widać, w czasie poprzednich dwóch recesji, wskaźnik osób ‘kontynuujących bezrobocie’ wyprze… Obecnie wskaźnik ten znajduje się nie tylko na niewidzianych w latach 90′ i 80′ [...]

By: James

James — Mon, 11 May 2009 16:37:39 +0000

Re, previous post, that’s Barry. Sorry.

By: James

James — Mon, 11 May 2009 16:31:24 +0000

How much worse? Bob suggests that you bullishly extrapolate the “less worse” downtick in the Continuing Claims just reported, assuming the trend continues in a straight line without interruption, which is extremely unlikely (see the dotted arrows in chart below). He reaches an Unemployment Rate of 13.0% before yearend: 32 weeks times an average 0.15% increase (declining from 0.30% to 0.00%) added to 8.9% = 13.3%.

————-

This data is dated, as can be seen from the charts. Also not clear how some of the numbers are derived (eg, the .30%, and the “averaging” to obtain the .15% is crude). Berry, where is the original doc by Bronson so these details can be sorted out?

By: The Gold Standard » My contribution to ‘green shoots’

The Gold Standard » My contribution to ‘green shoots’ — Mon, 11 May 2009 14:34:51 +0000

[...] post by Barry Ritholtz on how continuous claims are good predictors of the unemployment rate is worth [...]

By: Suburban Guerrilla » Blog Archive » What Fun

Suburban Guerrilla » Blog Archive » What Fun — Mon, 11 May 2009 12:38:02 +0000

[...] the Big Picture, data that indicates the recent dropoff in job claims doesn’t bode well for the [...]

By: LACRIME DI FIORE! | NOTIZIE FINANZIARIE

LACRIME DI FIORE! | NOTIZIE FINANZIARIE — Mon, 11 May 2009 10:15:27 +0000

[...] Barry Ritholtz ci propone l’altra faccia della medaglia, un’analisi di Bob Bronson che evidenzia [...]

By: webdesignbangkok

webdesignbangkok — Mon, 11 May 2009 08:41:57 +0000

Unemployment has the same accelerator effect of any economic downturn. The chances of these figures not being manipulated to suit the government would be extremely unlikely.

By: danm

danm — Mon, 11 May 2009 01:39:36 +0000

My main point is that Bronson’s argument is completely bankrupt. He’s comparing apples (mild recessions in which you could only file a continuing claim for 26 weeks and your health care was immediately eliminated) to pumpkins (a severe recession in which you can file a continuing claim for 52 weeks, plus you get to keep your health care
———-
Yeah! We’re comparing a period where households were saving 10% of their income (and most managed to keep their home despite rates going up to 18%) to an era where households were saving 0% and living on their margin which has probably been cut off.

Sorry, but those extra UI weeks are pocket change.

By: Cursive

Cursive — Sun, 10 May 2009 21:43:10 +0000

@ MEH 5:05

Now that’s the spirit! Agreed that it is a steal.

On the matter of crawfish boils and their sustainability. As long as there is an Atchafayala Basin and surnames of the likes of Babineaux, Boudreaux, Breaux, Broussard, Dugas, Fusilier, Gillory, Guidry, Moreau and Thibodeuax (to name a few), then there will always be crawfish boils. When your forefathers floated down the Atlantic seaboard in small bateaux to find a new home thousands of miles away, you tend to be of hardy stock.