data
Initial Claims totaled 623k, 5k less than expected but last week was
revised up by 5k to 636k, so a push. Continuing Claims continued higher
and rose to a new record coming in 43k more than estimated. The claims
data continues to be influenced by the goings on in the auto sector both
in terms of auto plant shutdowns and dealer uncertainty and closings.
Apr Durable Goods rose 1.9% headline and .8% ex transports, both well
above expectations BUT Mar was revised much lower. Also, Non Defense
Capital Goods ex Aircraft, the pure cap ex component, fell 1.5% after
dropping 1.4% in Mar. New Orders of vehicles and parts rose after 6 mo’s
of declines and fits with the thesis that the massive inventory drawdown
seen may be followed by replenishment. Shipments, which gets directly
plugged into GDP, fell by .2%. The inventory to shipments ratio did fall
to 1.88 from 1.89 and has been stable at this elevated level since Jan
at the highest levels since ’92.
DISCLAIMER
Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources
Miller Tabak + Co., LLC believes to be reliable, its accuracy and
completeness cannot be guaranteed. This report is for informational
purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be construed as an
offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, any security. At various times
we may have positions in and effect transactions in securities referred
to herein. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
appropriate for all investors. Trading options is not suitable for all
investors and involves risk of loss. Although the information contained
in the subject report (not including disclosures contained herein) has
been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the accuracy and
completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein
cannot be guaranteed. An options disclosure document may be obtained
from Mr. Jay Stenberg, Miller Tabak + Co., LLC., 331 Madison Avenue, New
York, NY 10017. Additional information is available upon request.
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May 28th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Once again, the “green shoots” crowd needs to put down the Kool-Aide and start reading the revised numbers for the prior reporting period. It is there, and only there, that we see that this “green shoots” optimism is unsupported wishful thinking.
One must remember that some of these reports are based upon statistical sampling, and that their methodology is based on post-WWII economic patterns. They’ve not had their sampling protocols tested during a period of debt deflation, quantitative easing, etc.
May 29th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Money doesn’t grow on trees for most of America. We sit down at our kitchen tables and write out checks to the phone-company, electric company, credit card-company, mortgage-company, and auto finance company every month. We clip coupons and go to the grocery store every week to put food in the mouths of our children. This is what our parents did before us.
bankers selling our childrens futures..for more bailouts? the disgrace. it’s horrible. too big to fail needs to fail. we neeed LESS bailouts. If you fail U fail. Tons of informative articles.
I came across this interesting site..check it out Econ & Finance Articles Updated Daily
DISGRACE THESE CROOKS! ANYTHING TO MAKE THE MARKET GO UP, HUH?