Comments on: Why a Housing Recovery Requires Lower Prices

By: Market Talk » Blog Archive » Following The Consensus Hasn’t Exactly Worked

Tue, 26 May 2009 19:15:10 +0000

[...] view may be correct, but FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz cautions people to be careful when discussing the consensus opinion about a certain [...]

By: Housing numbers fail to improve | Constructionpundit

Housing numbers fail to improve | Constructionpundit — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:39:06 +0000

[...] until housing prices come back to earth. And according to author and blogger Barry Ritholtz, they still have a long way to fall. There are still two to three years of “toxic” balloon mortgages out there ticking like [...]

By: I-Man

I-Man — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:18:28 +0000

@ Ahab:

Agreed on the point of lesser value equating less tax paid, even if the percentage goes up…

But its the principle of the thing… no one “feels” like they can afford higher taxes, and given the impending backlash of all this spending, likely wont “feel” inclined to vote in any higher taxes, and with rising unemployment and falling household wealth combined with lower property values with which to milk revenue from… the stage is set. So where does that Buck stop?

By: dead hobo

dead hobo — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:13:02 +0000

leftback,

Agreed about the direct relationship between the available amount of junk credit and the price of oil. As junk credit becomes more and more available, so will the price of oil rise and rise.

Mathematically speaking, does the change in the price of the dollar have a leveraging effect on speculative oil purchased with junk credit? For example, if you are at 10X leverage on an oil trade and the dollar falls 1%, would the leveraged value change by more than 1%, and potentially 10%? If so, then this is another reason to limit the amount of speculative dollars into commodities.

By: Mike in Nola

Mike in Nola — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:07:32 +0000

Thought this was a great headline on CNBC: Consumer Confidence Sees Biggest Jump in 6 Years.

Wait! Let me get my broker on the line.

By: leftback

leftback — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:06:41 +0000

hobo: My point is – a lot of the oil trade is simply leveraged $ hedging, although on a smaller scale than ‘07-’08.
I cannot compete with your picture, dude. You are a hobo chick magnet.

By: dead hobo

dead hobo — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:00:13 +0000

ben22 Says:
May 26th, 2009 at 10:57 am

hobo,

Nice you have the picture, makes your posts much easier to find.

reply:
————–
I like this picture. It makes me look handsome and vibrant.

By: ben22

ben22 — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:57:12 +0000

hobo,

I see what you are saying now. Nice you have the picture, makes your posts much easier to find.

By: dead hobo

dead hobo — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:52:48 +0000

ben22,

Re Back Story:

Re-read my posts. If you still draw a blank then I can’t add anything else.

By: call me ahab

call me ahab — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:51:44 +0000

I-Man-

Where does “the buck” stop???

good question- but if someone’s actual RE tax liability hasn’t changed in absolute terms- it would hard to see outrage even if the actual tax rate is higher on the lesser value

b22-

I’m w/ you dude- my only point was that an “unexpected event” such as floating of the yuan would trump the dynamics that are pushing the $ higher -

you and I are not in disagreement regarding the probable direction in the near term