Comments on: Is U.S. government-data being “massaged”? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 22:06:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: WaveCatcher http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/comment-page-1/#comment-172302 WaveCatcher Sat, 16 May 2009 15:44:32 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=26520#comment-172302 Maybe Obama can fix this! Maybe Obama can fix this!

]]> By: me http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/comment-page-1/#comment-171939 me Fri, 15 May 2009 15:40:44 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=26520#comment-171939 So Obama is in collusion with Bush? Makes sense to me. Or, is it possible that it is more difficult to measure statistics is periods of change? As BR even mentioned, the margins of error are large for an economy of this size. If the revision falls within the margin of error is that manipulating or just within the margin of error? So Obama is in collusion with Bush? Makes sense to me. Or, is it possible that it is more difficult to measure statistics is periods of change? As BR even mentioned, the margins of error are large for an economy of this size.

If the revision falls within the margin of error is that manipulating or just within the margin of error?

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/comment-page-1/#comment-171787 Mannwich Fri, 15 May 2009 03:38:44 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=26520#comment-171787 I don't think there's ANY DOUBT that government data is being "massaged". And there's nothing "special" about it. I don’t think there’s ANY DOUBT that government data is being “massaged”. And there’s nothing “special” about it.

]]> By: dead hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/comment-page-1/#comment-171558 dead hobo Thu, 14 May 2009 17:14:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=26520#comment-171558 You must be mistaken. What on Earth would the government have to gain by appearing to beat expectations? If you can't trust your own government, then who can you trust. Shame on you. Bizarro Dead Hobo You must be mistaken. What on Earth would the government have to gain by appearing to beat expectations? If you can’t trust your own government, then who can you trust. Shame on you.

Bizarro Dead Hobo

]]> By: davossherman@gmail.com http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/comment-page-1/#comment-171525 davossherman@gmail.com Thu, 14 May 2009 15:40:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=26520#comment-171525 "Well, I went back and had a look at the differences between the reported and revised data for various series, including monthly retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, and durable goods orders, to try and figure out if the cynics are right." Cynics? For Christ's sake - Just look at GDP. You own your house. The government calculates what you'd pay in rent if you rent, which you don't and then they add that amount to GDP. I could go on for days. F&*king Enron accountants would be proud of sh&t like this. Cynics? " "You gotta wonder?" NFW “Well, I went back and had a look at the differences between the reported and revised data for various series, including monthly retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, and durable goods orders, to try and figure out if the cynics are right.”

Cynics?

For Christ’s sake – Just look at GDP. You own your house. The government calculates what you’d pay in rent if you rent, which you don’t and then they add that amount to GDP.

I could go on for days.

F&*king Enron accountants would be proud of sh&t like this.

Cynics? ” “You gotta wonder?”

NFW

]]> By: KJMClark http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/comment-page-1/#comment-171518 KJMClark Thu, 14 May 2009 15:27:37 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=26520#comment-171518 There's always the possibility that when they constructed their models, they looked at historical data and decided the Great Depression was an aberration, and threw out that data. So their model works well most of the time, but fails when we're in a situation like the Great Depression. I know the payroll data includes a business birth/death correction based on a model. I bet they used post WWII data to develop that model. Just another version of Hoocoodanode. There’s always the possibility that when they constructed their models, they looked at historical data and decided the Great Depression was an aberration, and threw out that data. So their model works well most of the time, but fails when we’re in a situation like the Great Depression. I know the payroll data includes a business birth/death correction based on a model. I bet they used post WWII data to develop that model.

Just another version of Hoocoodanode.

]]> By: bigal http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/comment-page-1/#comment-171510 bigal Thu, 14 May 2009 15:15:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=26520#comment-171510 It could be that the data collection process is flawed. In the current environment getting accurate data may be harder as respondants are either a) opt'ing out or b) not able to respond accurately, c) don't care for various reasons, d) overworked since they are doing the job of their former co-worker who recently let go and this is the bottom of the priority/accuracy list. Or e) the data is massaged, or f) just coincidence since 3 of the 4 are within their historical ranges, or g) all of the above. I pick g. It could be that the data collection process is flawed. In the current environment getting accurate data may be harder as respondants are either a) opt’ing out or b) not able to respond accurately, c) don’t care for various reasons, d) overworked since they are doing the job of their former co-worker who recently let go and this is the bottom of the priority/accuracy list. Or e) the data is massaged, or f) just coincidence since 3 of the 4 are within their historical ranges, or g) all of the above. I pick g.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/is-us-government-data-being-massaged/comment-page-1/#comment-171482 leftback Thu, 14 May 2009 14:18:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=26520#comment-171482 Massaged? Ya think? Massaged? Ya think?

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