It seems that Traders love today’s NFP data. Let’s take a closer look at the actual numbers to see what we can tease out:
-Nonfarm payroll employment decline in April (-539,000);
-Total recession job losses (December 2007 forward) now total 5.7 million;
-That is 6.5 million job losses per year on an annualized basis;
-Private-sector employment fell by 611,000; the differential between NFP and private sector employment is primarily new hires for the 2010 Census;
-U3 Unemployment rose from 8.5 to 8.9%; unemployment is now at a 25-year high;
-U6 Unemployment, the broadest measure of “labor underutilization” rose to 15.8%; This is up 77.5% (6.6 percentage points) from a year ago;
-Temporary Help Services was down 3.4%; Year-to-year loss was nearly 29%. Total Temporary Help losses are now over 910,000 (-34 percent) since December 2006.
-All sectors saw job losses except Education, health services and government;
-Downward revisions made to February and April were for a net loss of 66,ooo positions;
Two additional things to note:
Its hard wrapping my head around a more than half million monthly job loss as signs of stabilization;
Second, I hasten to point out that the “adverse” scenario the Treasury/Federal Reserve used in their stress test was a 9.5% Unemployment Rate. We should be there by sometime this summer, and above 10% by the end of the year . . .
chart courtesy of Brucesteinberg.net
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.