It seems that Traders love today’s NFP data. Let’s take a closer look at the actual numbers to see what we can tease out:

-Nonfarm payroll employment decline in April (-539,000);

-Total recession job losses (December 2007 forward) now total 5.7 million;

-That is 6.5 million job losses per year on an annualized basis;

-Private-sector employment fell by 611,000; the differential between NFP and private sector employment is primarily new hires for the 2010 Census;

-U3 Unemployment rose from 8.5 to 8.9%; unemployment is now at a 25-year high;

-U6 Unemployment, the broadest measure of “labor underutilization” rose to 15.8%; This is up 77.5% (6.6 percentage points) from a year ago;

-Birth Death adjustment added 226k to the total of employed workers, (April is a pretty big month for this historically)

-Temporary Help Services was down 3.4%; Year-to-year loss was nearly 29%. Total Temporary Help losses are now over 910,000 (-34 percent) since December 2006.

-All sectors saw job losses except Education, health services and government;

-Downward revisions made to February and April were for a net loss of 66,ooo positions;

Two additional things to note:

Its hard wrapping my head around a more than half million monthly job loss as signs of stabilization;

Second, I hasten to point out that the “adverse” scenario the Treasury/Federal Reserve used in their stress test was a 9.5% Unemployment Rate. We should be there by sometime this summer, and above 10% by the end of the year . . .

>

steinberg_chart1

chart courtesy of Brucesteinberg.net

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

74 Responses to “Looking More Closely at “Good” NFP Data”

  1. Mannwich says:

    I dunno, Barry. Rally fading a bit here. I think the euphoria’s gonna fade here. Maybe not today but it’s going to fade soon.

  2. Andy T says:

    Not to get too weird with statistics and numbers…cause they can make up any story you want….

    But using round numbers:

    Let’s say a country has 100 million workers…..then the country goes into recession/depression and businesses start firing .5% of the workforce every week…the weekly firings would look like this:

    1st week: ( 500, 000 )
    2nd week: ( 497, 500 )
    3rd week: ( 495, 500 )
    4th week: (492, 537)

    etc….

    You see how the 2nd derivative is getting better? We’re losing less and less jobs each week. That’s great, right? But, there’s the effect of dwindling numbers….there are less and less people to fire each week. If the country is slashing a certain percentage of the workforce on a routine basis, then by definition, the second derivative MUST get better at some point.

    I’m not arguing that things are getting worse…but my point is you can make numbers tell a variety of different ‘stories.’

  3. franklin411 says:

    A person gives you a pencil and asks you to draw what recovery looks like.

    If you draw a V, then today’s numbers are bad.

    If you draw a U, then today’s numbers are good.

  4. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    If your uncle wore a dress, he might be your aunt…

  5. I’m drawing a back tilted L

    I think I’ll draw a few conclusions also.

    And based on action in INTC the last two days, it looks to me like they’re ready to do that ‘sell in May’ thing. They might wait for OE though.

    Of course, depending on the put/call gain/loss potential, that could also be the catalyst.

  6. The Curmudgeon says:

    How “bout an “L”? At some point all the superfluous jobs (i.e., those not tied to demand for discretionary things whose demand has cratered) will have been flushed out of the system, and the second derivative will go to zero. But that doesn’t mean the first derivative will go positive.

    But what the hell is going on with GS? Yesterday’s close down, and now today a 200pt swing on the Dow in the first hour? I thought the Masters of the Universe were more masterful.

  7. If you uncle was a beetle he couldn’t be your ant

  8. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Seeing as how our economy is 2/3rds service sector, I’ll trust my eyes at the mall and what I see taking place with regard to commercial real estate (more vacancies to come) as a metric for where unemployment is going. I’ll say unemployment is headed to 10% by Labor Day.

  9. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    GS:

    Very simple really…98% of the employees now work either in the Fed or the Treasury…they simply don’t have enough residual employees to run the ship on a day to day basis….

    Send in your resume!

  10. Transor Z says:

    http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/employ.htm

    Andy T: Seasonally Adjusted unemployment sure looks like a straight line upward slope to me.

  11. Stuart says:

    The Real Memo Out Of The Bureau Of Lies And Statistics
    Posted by Tyler Durden at 9:52 AM

    “We’re leveling off! We’re leveling off!”—so is the hope of TTT, Helicopter Ben, Larry the Wall Street Lackey and the rest of Team Obama. “This recession is leveling off!”

    No it’s not: The unemployment figures just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are totally cosmetic: We lost a whole lot more than 531,000 unemployed.

    First, the “seasonal adjustment”, which is a black box that can tweek me into looking like Dumbo the flying elephant. They’re knocking off ±65,000 workers for no clearly discernible reason. Second, notice that the Census Bureau hired 60,000 people last month. Those workers (by definition) are temporary, and are a net cost to the economy, as they will not be adding marginal utility to any economic sector, the census being merely a social expenditure.

    Those two items alone turn 530,000 new unemployed into 655,000.

    Now notice how, once again, previous months’ figures have been readjusted. This time, the readjustments weren’t so bad—a mere 30,000 more unemployed in February, turning that month’s official totals to 681,000, and another 30,000 for March, making that month’s official number 699,000, just shy of that magic 700,000 monthly number (BTW, remember back in the good old days when 300,000 monthly unemployed was”shocking”?)

    SNIP!

    ~~~

    EDITOR: Please do not Cut & Paste other people’s entire posts!

  12. leftback says:

    If you draw a W, then that means today’s new longs are going to take a bath fairly soon.

    @franklin, by the way, from your excellent education, do you know anything about bond bear markets?

    Sooner or later you are going to learn what happens when all debt instruments start to sell off. Bonfire of the Vanities, part deux, young man. We are not there yet but the Fed is playing a dangerous game.

  13. Chief Tomahawk says:

    And what’s to come of the travel industry? I’ve been tracking a two week trip to Sweden (roundtrip air and two weeks stay at a 3-star hotel) for two months now. The lowest it fell to was $1,130. Now, it’s over $1,500 (the change, which came about last week, I guess is due to the recent spike in oil prices.) My guess is the travel industry begins to get VERY concerned by about June 30 with regard to poor sales of summer bookings, etc. Should be some great last minute travel deals this year!

  14. sergtat says:

    We did vote for this government of corrupt crooks fraudsters and lairs learn to live with it.

    How the Common Man Sees: It and if your grandma had balls she would be your grandpa

  15. dead hobo says:

    The Curmudgeon Says:
    May 8th, 2009 at 10:46 am

    But what the hell is going on with GS? Yesterday’s close down, and now today a 200pt swing on the Dow in the first hour? I thought the Masters of the Universe were more masterful.

    reply:
    ————
    Maybe they are the morning pop. Managing the nightly futures would be a great way to make a few bucks by selling into an AM sucker rally. The headlines and the excellent prognosis for banking (HA HA) assisted. Let’s wait a little while longer and watch what the herd does.

    Personally, I think the credit card departments of the banks should ask Uncle Stupid for the names of everyone getting one of those glamorous census jobs. About 1 million are ultimately coming. It just seems like good business to go after the only people in the USA who are finding jobs … except for those other fortunate few in the hospitality industry.

  16. Onlooker from Troy says:

    @LB

    That’s why they really need a good scary dive in stocks to get the herd running to bonds again without thinking about the long term implications. Hmmmm.

  17. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Stu, I wonder why Larry isn’t trumpeting up Obama for the rebound in the stock market? Remember Obama came out and called stocks a good value right around the bottom. I know Obama is the other party, but I think Larry owes Barach a few on air “Obamasms”.

  18. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Bruce N Tennessee:

    You know my uncle?

  19. Stuart says:

    @ Editor. Apologies.

  20. Onlooker from Troy says:

    @dead hobo

    “It just seems like good business to go after the only people in the USA who are finding jobs … ”

    I know you’re being facetious, but, those people would of course not go spending that money so freely with the short term nature of that job and the prospects for a follow on gig.

    The absolute denial in the market about the poor prospects for job recovery is just stunning. No matter how hard the Fed et al try to prop up the housing and finance industries, they aren’t coming back to anything like ’06 levels.

    Apologies to those in the biz, but the best thing that could happen to housing is for builders to STOP BUILDING MORE HOUSES! Increased supply won’t fix a glut of crappy houses. Of course when this wave of poorly constructed houses starts to fall apart well before their expected life span, the business will boom again. Hopefully the builders will bone up on good construction technique for when that time comes.

  21. florida bear says:

    Barry, don’t forget the +226,000 BD adjustment! Also, I do not believe the unemployment #s reflect the structural change in economy in the past 10-20 years regarding the increase in independent contractors (ie., RE agents). No Money= no unemployment check! How many IC were in US in 1974, 1982, 1991? Compare with today.

  22. leftback says:

    @Onlooker: That’s the exact thought that has been on my mind this week when pondering these “free markets”.
    Right now I am pondering a few strategic purchases at the long end of the curve, for a trade.

  23. Marcus Aurelius says:

    franklin411:

    “A person gives you a pencil and asks you to draw what recovery looks like. . .”

    I’d draw a picture of Dorian Gray.

  24. The Curmudgeon says:

    “now today a 200pt swing on the Dow in the first hour?”

    Sorry about that folks. Bloomie was giving me false signals. I see now it’s up about 75pts on Dow, with no swing, unless that’s also a false signal. Damn, just don’t know what to believe anymore.

  25. franklin411 says:

    I have a feeling that many bears laid bets on an “I,” rather than a V, L, U, or W: no recovery..ever!

    That case is off the table permanently. And we haven’t even begun spending the Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds, which should help kick-start this economy in the 2nd half.

  26. Stuart says:

    I think a few exorcist style hid spins would be in order if Kudlow starting giving public Obamasms…. LOL

  27. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Onlooker from Troy:

    When those houses start falling apart, the occupants (a.k.a: owners) will still owe on their already inflated mortgages. How will they be qualified to purchase a replacement?

  28. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Hmmm…..

    Household employment rose 120k. Does that stat catch drug dealing from out the back door?

  29. Marcus Aurelius says:

    franklin411:

    As I’ve said before: This downturn has ramifications beyond the economy. There will be social change on an order that will render any “recovery” an exercise in comparing apples and bicycles — as there was as a result of the GD (which resulted in a change from an agricultural to an industrial economy and resulted in the middle class, as we have lived it).

    ‘Recovery’ is the wrong word.

  30. Chief Tomahawk says:

    I think you’re right Stu. Perhaps that’s why Larry’s not on CNBC now. As soon as unemployment came in less bad*, he realized what he’d have to do today on air and then phoned in sick. Lord knows Robert Reich would’ve really stuck it to him today.

  31. Mannwich says:

    Larry will only give Obama “credit” when the shit hits the fan again. That’s just Larry. He’s an intellectually dishonest ideologue.

  32. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Whoa. Where’s Larry to talk over/cut off Tavakoli?!? She’s as big of a bear as there is.

  33. The Oracle of Kypseli says:

    According to Zeno’s Paradox, even if job losses are 25% fewer every month from this point on, it may take three years to even approach zero. That spells depression in between.

  34. franklin411 says:

    @Marcus
    I would have agreed with you 6 months ago. Since then, we’ve seen that the President and the Treasury Secretary have been absolutely correct in every policy they have pursued, in spite of the offal cast against them by those trying to destroy the American economy by shorting it.

  35. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Mannwich, what will be interesting is how the Republicans govern once they get back in (which will be someday down the road.) They sound once again like Republicans now that they’re out. Indeed Newt Gingrich is smelling opportunity, channeling popular objection to government bailouts. Yet that’s what Bush was about until the sh*t hit the fan. Then he caved in.

  36. NJBR says:

    If you draw an “L”….

    Seriously though, all job growth in health-care, education and government?

    Where is the future in that?

    I know, I know, education is the future, so is health care, but these exists as net drag in terms of the economy.

    The future of the US economy–a giant government-run teaching hopital with a large cafeteria and gift shop. All the big sectors of the future economy.

    Who needs to have “productive” sectors? (Manufacturing employment declined from 18MM to 12 MM between 2000 and 2006 (33%!!!) during the boom years).

    Don’t forget. the “good” life in the US is predicated on well-paid workers, such as used to be in the manufacturing sector.

    The collapse of the FIRE sector with it’s over 50% share in corporate profits and above average pay is a blow that cannot be recovered from with the current makeup of the economy and employment.

    Perhaps that is the best reason why it is , “Save the banks at any, repeat ANY, cost.”

    Otherwise, it is the dreaded “L”….

  37. Mannwich says:

    @Chief: I dunno. It could be a while. They still have too many nut jobs who seem to be prominently featured saying something stupid nearly every day. I don’t see it happening any time soon.

    The GOP is pretty much a bankrupt party at this point. A farce. Intellectually dishonest too. They seem to all HATE gov’t spending but except for their own respective constituents. Newt, perhaps, but he’s too bombastic and a worse philanderer than Clinton was to really lead this country. I think they’ll wander in the wilderness for a long time unless the Dems totally, I mean, totally, screw things up, which is, or course, very possible.

  38. Chief Tomahawk says:

    “to destroy the American economy by shorting it.”

    Franklin, shorting won’t work unless there’s truth to back it up. Mortgage securitization was a one-way crack trip Ponzi scheme, the effects thereof are now being mitigated by the integrity of the U.S. dollar & economy.

  39. Mannwich says:

    Don’t waste your energy responding, Chief. He’s 21-year old who has never lived in the real world. Maybe he’ll find out what it’s like someday.

  40. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Mannwich, your last sentence just foretold how/why the change will come. Invariably special interests feeding at the trough will cripple the party in power, especially as the pie gets smaller for everyone to get their share from.

  41. Marcus Aurelius says:

    franklin:

    I’m a supporter of Obama, and given what he inherited, I can’t fault him for trying. However, if economic policy could change reality, we’d all be above average. Keep an eye on the dollar, and realize what formerly comfortable, compliant people will do when confronted with poverty and loss of influence over their own future fortunes.

    I’m in a classic literature mood today (see my comment, next post), and I don’t know why. Here’s what our government’s moves, to date, have amounted to:

    Oh what a tangled web we weave,
    When first we practise to deceive!

    — Sir Walter Scott, Marmion

  42. Chief Tomahawk says:

    “Don’t waste your energy responding, Chief. He’s 21-year old who has never lived in the real world. Maybe he’ll find out what it’s like someday.”

    Well then, he can head over to Intrade and start a contract about Obama winning re-election in 2012. With Obama’s popularity in the 60s now, I think it likely to go lower especially as our economy labors under working off the housing bubble for a considerable period of time.

  43. I’d draw a picture of Dorian Gray.

    I’d draw a pitcher of arsenic

    Then I’d draw a picture of Manny Ramirez….because he’s not coming back any time soon either :mrgreen:

  44. mcrcr4 says:

    Franklin, every trade has a short and a long. When you inevitably sell your holdings (assuming you have any) in order to finally have something beyond paper profits, will you include yourself in that nefarious group intending “to destroy the American economy by shorting it.”? Just askin’.

    Best regards,
    RF

  45. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Manny might have to change his name to Fannie when his body is done sorting out the hormones.

  46. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    As for economic recovery. I also think that the recession could become a two-legged one. All the liquidity pumping and stimulus funding could spur some temporary economic growth, and if it is through government spending alone in the GDP equation. However, when I think about the state of the economy, I permanently have the charts for the mortgage resets in front of my eyes, which can be found in one of Hussman’s weekly reports:

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090330.htm

    The series of the monthly number of mortgage resets looks like an inversed W. The majority of mortgage resets in the subprime sector has been behind us, but the bulk of all mortgage resets is still ahead of us. The sharp economic downturn in recent quarters and the apparent “stabilization”, currently, and the anticipated “recovery” later this year correlates well with the pace of mortgage resets, taking some time lag between the resets and GDP change into account. Mortgage resets will increase sharply in 2010 and peak in 2011. Let’s see what’s going to happen then.

    Then I think about 50 trillion US-dollars of total debt in US, 350% of the GDP. This credit bubble that has fueled the global economy in recent years has barely been deflated. So far, major efforts are being done to prevent a massive deflation by moving debt to government budgets onto the shoulders of the tax payers. And government deficit spending will increase the debt further. Can this debt bubble be inflated further? How much? Up to 500% of GDP? 1000%? It’s like trying to safe someone in a burning house from suffocating by pumping more oxygen into the house. Debt has to be serviced at some point. What if this credit bubble really starts to deflate? I fear, if people think it’s bad now they will be surprised what “bad” really means, in case of a massive debt deflation.

    rc

  47. Marcus Aurelius Says: May 8th, 2009 at 11:15 am

    franklin411:

    As I’ve said before: This downturn has ramifications beyond the economy. There will be social change on an order that will render any “recovery” an exercise in comparing apples and bicycles — as there was as a result of the GD (which resulted in a change from an agricultural to an industrial economy and resulted in the middle class, as we have lived it).

    ‘Recovery’ is the wrong word.
    ~~

    even if franklin can’t accept it, others would do well to pay heed.

    “There will be social change on an order that will render any “recovery” an exercise in comparing apples and bicycles ..”

  48. cvienne says:

    Looks like an “h” recovery to me…

    Emphasis on SMALL CASE

  49. cvienne says:

    @Hoffer

    I’m in tune with what I perceive to be your insights…

    One of the most interesting anecdotes that I’ve read over the past 6 months or so are the ones about people stocking up on food supplies…

    …and about GUNS and AMMO shortages…

    I don’t remember hearing about any of that kind of stuff in any of the “Garden Variety” recessions I’ve live through in my lifetime…

  50. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    “One of the most interesting anecdotes that I’ve read over the past 6 months or so are the ones about people stocking up on food supplies…”

    I haven’t heard anything about this except in places like this one here.

    And where would I be stocking up anything in my Manhattan rental apartment.

    rc

  51. cvienne,

    those Sales are up appreciably, and speaking of “Garden Variety”, Gardening Sales are, also, up.

    some people are paying attention..

    to your point: “I don’t remember hearing about any of that kind of stuff in any of the “Garden Variety” recessions I’ve live through in my lifetime…” here, too.

    and, the ‘Banker Takeover’, at these levels, is hitting new Highs, as well:
    “”And the banks – hard to believe in a time when we’re facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created – are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place.” – Illinois Sen. Richard Durbin
    What happens when a powerful senator goes up against an industry which has received roughly four trillion dollars in taxpayer support to stave off complete collapse? The senator loses.
    Or at least that seems to be what happened last week when an amendment, which would have given bankruptcy judges the ability to adjust or “cram down” mortgages to help borrowers avoid foreclosure, was not able to garner the 60 votes needed to overcome a self-imposed invisible filibuster, which continues to haunt the Democrats in the Senate.
    A procedural step to cut off debate and move to vote on the amendment was defeated by a 45 to 51 vote on the floor of the Senate, with 12 Democrats crossing the isle to vote with a unified Republican Party.
    After the vote, Illinois Sen. Richard Durbin, the second highest ranking Democrat and author of the legislation, broke a taboo of the Senate with a charge of institution-wide corruption…”
    http://www.truthout.org/050809J

  52. Stuart says:

    Given that the use of the unemployment rate in the bank stress tests was for the purpose of gauging the ability for the public to repay debt, factoring in discouraged workers, we’re already well in excess of the upper ceiling of bank stress.

  53. rc,

    see: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=gun+sales&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=Z2MESrNCh4y2B_PjyIAH&sa=X&oi=news_group&resnum=1&ct=title

    these reports are from all over..
    ~~

    Stuart,

    that was my reaction to seeing the parameters they were using–”We’re already there..”

    for some real Comedy you might care to listen to how NPR is covering the story–it’s, actually, really pathetic.

  54. manhattanguy says:

    Incredible how strong this rally is. But I doubt it will last long though. Anyone watching SPY? closing in on 200 dma.

  55. cvienne says:

    @ RC

    I put up a link to several articles regarding guns and ammo supplies but it got taken down…

    In any case, I Googled “ammo supply shortages” and got 151,000 pages worth of hits for your reference…

    Do your own work on the subject…

    I’ll be doing fine in West Virginia (with my crops & animals) if and when social “re-organization” erupts…Good luck to you all in Manhattan…

  56. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    “In any case, I Googled “ammo supply shortages” and got 151,000 pages worth of hits for your reference…”

    I always love that when someone puts up the number of hits from a Google search to prove a point.

    A Google search on “alien abduction” delivers 1,620,000 hits.

    rc

  57. cvienne says:

    @rc

    Sorry pal…I posted some direct links to your inquiry but the MODERATOR took it off (so I offered up the “Google hits”)

    I was just trying to respond to your statement that you were unaware of anything that existed like that…

    I was only trying to give you some concrete reference points…

    & sorry that you choose to make a mockery out of my efforts…

    I won’t bother anymore

  58. Eric K says:

    Andy T – what’s your read on the SMH Semi ETF? It looks like a perfect 5 wave decline from the July 2007 highs.
    I’ve been watching it for the past few months, and it looks like the 5th wave down is starting.

    chart here: http://www.realself.com/files/smh.gif

    It looks like it will retrace its move off the March lows during the wave 1 of (5) since that’s what it did during wave 1 of (3).

  59. Bruce in Tn says:

    Marcus:

    I met your uncle once…he/she/they looked good except for the five-o-clock shadow..

  60. Bruce in Tn says:

    Franklin…let me clue you in on something you may not have realized yet..

    All economic forecasting is serendipity when it comes out right…what?

    For instance: I won’t bother you with old history, since the world only began after January 20th, but lets remember the last two years since oh, 2007..ok..when the market started to decline, do you remember how many were saying at numbers like 12,000..”the bottom is in, it is ok to resume buying?”

    Remember that? There were many, not just Jim Cramer, Abby Joe, Ken Fisher, ad nauseum…

    Well, what happened? We broke 7000…guess what? There were the same “It’s ok to get back in the water” bunch, slightly different names, but this time the tea leaves were “correct”

    Now the market is up around 8500…now everyone who was aggressively long at 7000 has been proved right…right? If we get above 12,000 then the boys who suggested getting in at 12k will actually be right too…right?

    What if the folks who think the economy is too weak to sustain a new bull market…? If the market goes up another month but then tanks, will they be wrong but then right?

    POINT IS: Most of the people here have been investing much longer than you. Markets go up and go down. I have been investing for over 3 decades, and most here probably that long or longer. If you see comments that suggest that these more experienced hands are having problems with the reason for the enthusiasm here, take a second and think it over. Your comments make me think you believe that if the government is determined enough, they can correct the imbalances in the general economy…I don’t think that is the case, but that is what makes ballgames..

    Game ain’t over til you quit investing….

  61. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    cvienne,

    Well, I couldn’t really know what you put up here, if I didn’t see it, could I? Sorry, if I hurt your feelings. It’s not that I think it’s unbelievable what you said. I haven’t heard anyone in my environment talking about doing it, though. Then again, I suppose I don’t get out much of my academic ivory tower.

    rc

  62. rc,

    you live a serious ‘gun control’ jurisdiction, as well..

    but, seriously, feel free to believe what you need..

  63. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    Mark,

    I prefer to not believe anything just because I need it. I go where the data and evidence lead me. :)

    rc

  64. cvienne says:

    @rc

    No offense taken…No feelings hurt

    I’m not even suggesting you buy guns or ammo or stock up on food…

    My ORIGINAL point (about the plethora of articles I’d seen) was anecdotal…Therefore, you make of it what you wish…

    …a brooch…a hat…a teradactyl…

  65. leftback says:

    From Hussmann, on mortgage resets in the Alt-A and prime mortgage market, 2005-2007 vintages:

    “This reset profile is of great concern, because the majority of resets are still ahead. Moreover, the mortgages to which these resets will apply are primarily those originated late in the housing bubble, at the highest prices, and therefore having the largest probable loss.”

    Now, I look at the continuing claims data, the U-6 number (15.6%), and I tell myself:

    “this is not my beautiful house, and this is not my beautiful wife….
    -same as it ever was”

    The rally continues, but somewhere outside the confines of the NYSE, another set of economic problems is just about to begin. Meanwhile the long bond rates are rising, taking mortgage rates higher along with them.

  66. Itiswhatitis says:

    Long bond rates are rising because people are sticking their heads outside. Nothing more, nothing less.

    Yet, the dips cannot figure it out.

  67. rc–

    “I prefer to not believe anything just because I need it.”

    good going, should help you, seriously, stay around..

    as is said: “ya gotta be around, to be around..”

  68. Carlomagno says:

    Barry,

    Why would the B/D adjustment have a seasonal pattern (“April historically strong”)?

  69. leftback says:

    Itiswhatitis at 2:36 pm”Long bond rates are rising because people are sticking their heads outside”

    and those same heads will go inside again pretty swiftly when this squeeze finally ends. Have a nice day.

  70. danm says:

    “One of the most interesting anecdotes that I’ve read over the past 6 months or so are the ones about people stocking up on food supplies…”

    I haven’t heard anything about this except in places like this one here.

    ——————
    Who actually believes someone who’s doing it would tell you they’re doing it? That’s something you keep to yourself.

  71. [...] that working on a 25:1 leverage ratio suggests these are not stress tests are all. Moreover, Ritholtz says the stress tests are based on a US unemployment rate of 9.5%, but as he points out, were likely to blow through that level in just a few [...]

  72. Pat G. says:

    I heard it just as I was leaving. So, 539K for sure. We’ll split birth/death or 113K added back in = 652K. We are already higher than the 610K expected. Census jobs are temporary to begin with. At best, you can work through June of next year. But that’s not full time employment. As a matter of fact you can work completing a “phase” for 6-8 weeks and you’re done, period. Or if you are “good” enough be called to work the next phase in a couple of months. That 66K number should be included in the “Temporary Help Services” percentage because that’s the kind of employment it is. Don’t you find it coincidental that the revisions to February & April just happened to total 66K too? So to sum up, I figure we lost another 718K jobs which was 100 grand more than expected. Isn’t that a candy bar? In this case, it isn’t sweet.

  73. [...] Friday, we noted that the difference between terrible numbers and Friday’s merely awful numbers were [...]

  74. [...] report was better than expected, but still bad.  (Felix Salmon, Economix, Real Time Economics, Big Picture, The Market Ticker, Capital Spectator, FiveThirtyEight.com, EconomPic [...]