Mike Panzner writes:
The technology-laden Nasdaq-100 Index has had a winning streak of more than eight weeks on only five occasions, or 3% of the total, since 1985 (when the NDX began trading).

14    1   [Week ending 1/15/99]
13    0
12    0
11    2   [6/9/89 and 12/31/99]
10    1   [2/3/89]
9     1   [12/4/92]
8     4   [Includes latest streak, as of last Friday]
7     1
6     9
5    13
4    16
3    34
2    86

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

86 Responses to “Nasdaq-100 Weekly Winning Streaks (1985 – 2009)”

  1. I wish this had a bigger sample set — going back to the 1970s might have been more instructive.

  2. DL says:

    Over the last 8 months, how many times have we seen an extreme technical reading, or a new record established (e.g., VIX), or an old record challenged?

    Add another one to the list.

  3. would be more interesting to see what the next 8 weeks have looked like after those streaks


  4. danm says:

    The more people get suckered into this rally, the faster we’ll find a bottom.

    My guess is that soon, the second batch of investors will be losing their money. This will happen until there are no more suckers with money to lose.

  5. dbarsic says:

    Pretty much looks like an exponential probability distribution

    This would be expected since an exponential distribution has a “memoryless” property

  6. call me ahab says:

    I am surprised that news of BofA, Citi and Wells needing additional capital with the implication of dilution has not effected the share prices-

    what am I missing??? Seems to be a pretty straight forward conclusion

  7. Mannwich says:

    @ahab: Au contraire. It seems to have had plenty of an effect on WFC’s stock price. It’s actually UP 10% today in our bizarro world. Dilution, smilution. It’s all green shoots now.

  8. HCF says:


    What you’re missing is that in your world, 2+2=4. You have to get with the program and see the unicorns and rainbows, and remember that 1=2 for large values of 1.

  9. karen says:

    ahab, i wouldn’t pay attention to the news:

    NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) – Bank of America Corp (BAC), denying a media report, said it had no plans to raise $10 billion in common equity, while another report said Citigroup Inc (C) was looking to raise capital from private investors.

  10. HCF says:

    Anyone here thinking of buying volatility? I’m looking at the VXX (Barclays Ipath VIX short-term ETN), which is under $90 now. Me thinks the market is very complacent right now. Any better ways to play volatility?


  11. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Our government now owns the stock markets, or maybe, the other way ’round.

  12. DL says:

    HCF @ 1:20

    Of course, you could buy out-of-the-money puts and calls… and not necessarily equal amounts of each.

  13. call me ahab says:


    however- if the government converts to common because TBTF banks unable to find private investores-same result- dilution-

    I don’t see how dilution does not occur unless private investors are found and given preferred shares- unless of course the stress tests come out and the there is no requirement to raise capital

  14. Todd says:

    So, if the S&P breaks 900 do you think it will create a pop as the shorts try and close their positions. I’ve stopped trying to rationalize the market. It’s now a day to day look.

  15. karen says:

    if you look at the $wlsh, it doesn’t look as tho it will crash anytime soon. pull back, yes, crash, no.

    same with $tran… we’ll see what 1:00 gives us. both are looking overbot and ready to correct, but not crash.

  16. Clem Stone says:

    The data seems fitting. Isn’t the run up since March 9th the fastest/farthest since the Stone Age or something? The 1930′s anyway. Shouldn’t we have 20 or 30 up weeks in a row to match the other amazing feats?

  17. franklin411 says:

    Wasn’t the run down the fastest/furthest since the Stone Age?

  18. ben22 says:

    Since 1973, post-election year NASDAQ Mays rank first.

    I’d put my shorts on tech on 5/22 if I were going to do so.

  19. Mannwich says:

    I dunno. I think comparing this time period to any other is a fool’s errand because everything is so manipulated at this point by the feds. What’s to stop the market from simply going up virtually every and week at this point until the feds (and their banking cronies) decide to pull back the throttle when it suits their agendas? I mean, it’s literally gone straight up almost every day for the past 8+ weeks now. I see now reason this can’t continue with everything being so manipulated.

    How can we even compare apples-to-apples (or even any other fruit) if this is the case? And I do believe this IS the case. It’s obvious where the extra cash the feds are pumping into the banks are going – straight into the market.

  20. DL says:

    This rally has already gone much further than I thought it would. At this point, I own a few QQQQ call options, but that’s about it. I’m going to wait for a turn in market direction before making any big bets.

  21. DL says:

    I’m going to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction.

    This rally WILL end during our lifetimes.

    You heard it here first.

  22. insaneclownposse says:

    a short squeeze is going on now, but maybe institutional performance chasers are coming in to buy at these levels as well.
    Could be a baby cyclical bull happening at the moment. It seems like sentiment has really turned the corner. I’m buying the junkiest crap I can think of — UYG.

  23. Bruce N Tennessee says:


    JPMorgan May Be Asked to Buy More Banks: CEO Dimon

    Hmmm….seems to me that this will eventually concentrate assets into an even smaller circle of players…

  24. call me ahab says:


    quite the revelation

  25. centiare says:

    I don’t know why anyone is surprised about the recent market behavior. Bear rallies exist because the dominant experience in most investor’s lives are short-term cyclical downturns ie excess inventory, limited over-expansion, etc that traditionally occur over 6 yr up/2 yr down cycles. The truly fundamental debt-deflation cycles occur much less frequently – on the order of one per lifetime eg 1873, 1929, 2008.

    But to really understand what is going on, consider the bigger picture: why do banks get away with what they are doing? Because the fundamentals regarding money creation, debt expansion, etc are simply too complex for those with IQs below 125. So the great middle faithfully slogs on, completely unaware of 3 key underlying factors:

    * 7 years & $trillions in mal-investments. Akin to the 4 pt turn-around problem in basketball (miss a shot to go even, only to have the other team score on rebound, not only was there limited capital invested in new productive ventures, but the capital that *was invested* was shot on an unsustainable consumption model.
    * Boomers are now in savings mode. Even if the economy were to somehow recover (not possible given the above), they would be making a last-ditch effort towards saving rather than consuming.
    * The country’s demographics have changed – we simply do not have the intellectual capital necessary to differentiate the vast bulk of our productive labor away from the debilitating effects of global wage arbitrage to any significant level.

    The last comment also has other underlying implications:
    * The election of Obama and the enabling of his policy agenda
    * The ability of the Fed & Treasury to consistently cite national security as a rationale for exercising unConstitutional acivities
    * The repudiation of the national debt – either outright, or more elegantly, through 100% inflation

    So what we are seeing right now is the effect of people who have no idea regarding the underlying economic fundamentals, but have faith that the PTB will “do the right thing”, and thus continue to direct their 401 plans into the market, combined with people who do understand that the DOW could easily go to 16k based on over $10T that the Fed has committed to backstopping the FIRE economy.

    There is no way we are going to escape 20% unemployment and a 15-20% contraction in GDP. But that doesn’t mean the market won’t reflect massive asset appreciation undertaken on behalf of the next generation of citizens who are simply not going to pay the national debt. It will be defaulted or inflated away.

  26. Mannwich says:

    @Bruce: Great. Just what we need. Make these TBTF behemoths bigger and more powerful. Fantastic.

  27. I-Man says:


    My preference would be to just buy calls on the VIX itself… not mess with that ETN. But Hoffer would probably be your man to answer that one, he’s the vol sage.

  28. call me ahab says:

    I do believe that mannwich has a point however- maybe the USG is all in- long- possible? How to prove? if the market does not correct- it being extremely overbought – then that would be the logical conclusion-

  29. DL says:

    Mannwich @ 1:51

    If Obama can succeed in sweeping things under the rug until after the next election, he’s going to come out ahead. (That was Bush’s strategy, I think, during 2008).

  30. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Well, I bought some ewt this morning…and have set stops…everything on autopilot from here on..

  31. Mannwich says:

    @DL: It’s nearly every politican’s strategy these days – just get re-elected. That’s why the rusty can keeps getting kicked down the road.

  32. ben22 says:

    Many weeks ago BR put up a simple chart of the S&P and the 200 day MA on the top of it going back I think to 1927. Only twice before had we gotten as far below the 200 day MA as we had in March and it pointed to a big move up. I commented right on the thread that just eyeing the chart looked like we go back to ~1,100 on the S&P. At that time we had 90%+ bulls in gold, everyone was selling or staying short, etc etc, it seemed almost too easy to go long then.

    I dunno, I can name a million things wrong with the economy and the markets just like everyone else can but I’m not really surprised like many seem to be at the strength of this rally or that it has gone this high. It’s odd, lots of the people saying that here I think are in some sort of depression/deflation camp yet they seem to completely ignore that we had a 50% rally during the depression.

    Also, I’m reading April a lot different than some here it seems. The whole months gains were basically made in a few days at the beginning and end of the month and for the majority of trading days April was actually sort of sideways. Lots of people still looking for a pullback which I certainly understand but what didn’t happen in price in April (no real pullback) may have occured in time instead, as the month performance was misleading but does show up if you take out a few of those ultra strong days at beg. and end.

    I’m still looking for the SPX to go btwn 965-1000 before this is over. If we reach 965 I’m going to start getting more short. I might even take a third try at damn SRS which has easily been my worst trade of the last 2 years.

    If gold doesn’t go above 919 I’m sticking with my call that it will correct to 680.

    How bout the long bonds? TBT +32% on the year. Biggest bubble ever is right there.

  33. leftback says:

    “but the capital that *was invested* was shot on an unsustainable consumption model”

    Not sustainable, you say? Many on Wall Street are hoping that their consumption of models and blow is indeed sustainable, or at worst, has experienced only a temporary disruption.

    I-Man: I agree. VIX July calls? Would have been a great play last September. In fact it was, for someone.

    Anyone think the Q2 earnings will be awesome or perhaps a tad disappointing? I imagine that they will almost all still “beat the Street” though.

  34. HCF,

    these guys: http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/introduction.aspx

    will tell you the whole background story on VIX (from their POV)..

    and, if the play is VIX exposure in, and of, itself, I think I-Man is correct, cut out the Middleman, you’re better off with having the OCC as direct Counterparty, at the minimum..

    but, I tend to focus on individual equities, and their derivatives–Volatility shows up there, too.

    the VIX is geared to the SPX option prices..

    people tend forget that outlier relative outperformance of a few issues can skew the whole Index..

    it’s tough enough to 1-5 good opinions, let alone 30-500-2000…

  35. HCF says:

    @DL, I-Man, Hoffer:

    Thanks for the notes on VIX. I actually opened a tiny position in VXX… I understand the construction of the VIX index, but by buying some of it, it will FORCE me to learn more since my ass is on the line!


  36. Whammer says:

    @HCF — I’m going to steal that line about 1=2 for large values of 1. ;-)

  37. DL says:

    Bruce N Tennessee @ 1:56

    If the stop has been entered via your brokerage account, don’t be surprised if the stop gets hit and EWT subsequently goes right on up to $14.

  38. leftback says:

    Right NOW, the UUP is sitting on strong support, so I would not be surprised to see a US$ rally begin here that would be equity negative.

    @ Bruce: I was long the UWT but that was in March. It’s had a really really good run. Having said that, next time down (and there will be a next time) I like the EWZ, and the EWT as a safer China play than FXI.

    BTW, some people are buying COW (meat price index) on the basis that the swine flu panic is overdone. I like this idea, and as you may remember, am also long the DBA.

    @ DL: True dat. You are cynical today. I like that. It’s bear exhaustion.

  39. bonerici says:

    this is an excellent example of the false anthropogenic effect, humans see patterns where there aren’t. Because of this, when there are long stock runs there tend to be more pull backs than should happen if it were a random walk, if it goes down it will bounce it . . . and if we see only 5 winning streaks we say “only” instead of noticing that it is exactly as expected if the stock market were a random walk.

    there is no pattern.

    1248 weeks, we are looking for a pattern 2^8 long 24 * 52 / 2^8 = it should happen 5 times.

    actually the only thing suspicious here is how exactly it fits the expected value.

  40. I-Man says:

    @ Left:

    Nice volume on the breakout in DBA last week… Today’s pullback would be a nice entry with a stop nestled just below 25…

    And on the VIX calls… I’d look at the June’s. Looks like peeps are building call spreads around the 45′s and 50′s. At a cost of 55 cents, that’s not a bad play for just trying to nab a single.

    Of course, you could always just go with the June 37.5′s if you’re swinging for the fences. I like the spreads on options because if I’m wrong it doesnt hurt so bad…

  41. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Funny (and pathetically true) piece from The Onion:


    Explains everything! And captures the psychology of this crazy little rally. And also helps explain why those who don’t stick their head in the sand and see that things are going to continue going to crap, are so puzzled by it. Myself very much included. Of course I also realize that a lot of the rally is just speculators having fun. Too much risk in flipping crappy stocks for me and not enough reward for buying the higher quality stuff at this point.

  42. Mannwich says:

    I guess the adage that “stock markets never go up or down in a straight line” no longer applies.

  43. HCF says:

    @ Whammer:
    > I’m going to steal that line about 1=2 for large values of 1

    Be my guest! I procured that line from years of engineering school and being in the industry. Nerd humor rules!


  44. I-Man says:

    I-Man’s gonna pull a Borchers and make a careless prediction…

    This thing falls apart in the last hour.

  45. ben22 says:

    With each passing day I think more and more that franklin411 is in fact J. Borchers.

  46. Mannwich says:

    S&P now up 35% off the leftback lows. Ho hum.

  47. DL says:

    Mannwich @ 2:41

    The way I figure it, the Nasdaq should be back to 5000 by August.

  48. Mannwich says:

    @DL: Great, then maybe some folks will be made whole off of their busted pets.com and Worldcom bets by then.

    @Onlooker: Classic Onion article. Loved it. One for the ages.

  49. HCF,

    here’s another info source on VIX: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/04/ten-things-everyone-should-know-about.html

    seems worthwhile..

    also: ”
    As I write this, the VIX is at 51.30, up 9% and VXX is at 116.40, up 7.5%.

    I continue to get quite a few questions about VXX, the VIX ETN. The biggest issues, by far, seem to be around how well VXX tracks the VIX and how much juice to expect from VXX relative to the VIX.
    As best I can determine, when there are small day to day changes in the SPX, VXX should reflect, on average, approximately 35-40% of the daily change in the VIX. In more volatile markets, such as SPX daily changes of 3% or more, VXX should move, on average, about 55-60% as much as the VIX does. (Of course, on average, if you walk down the middle of a two way street you won’t get hit by oncoming traffic, but deviate to one side or the other even briefly…)
    For more information on the movements of VXX and the VIX, check out Directional Exposure to Volatility Via Listed Futures: S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, authored by Gareth Parker, Gerlinda Liu and Keith Loggie of Standard & Poors.
    Posted by Bill Luby at 10:15 AM

    and, Whammer is right, this: 1=2 for large values of 1, is too.. (:

  50. Bruce N Tennessee says:


    Have you looked at the chart of COW?

    They could have named it DOWN, and come closer to the truth…

    But I get your point.

  51. call me ahab says:

    in the end I think common sense prevails- speaking of NAZ 5000- I remember poeple telling me it was a no brainer- can’t lose- and I was thinking to myself- what am I missing?- I mean Pets.com- give me a break- who gives a shit- and then NAZ crashed w/ people doubling down- dumbasses

    so the shorts will be right- it is always a timing thing

  52. call me ahab says:

    boy SKF has fallen off a cliff

  53. Bruce N Tennessee says:


    French Car Registrations Decline 7%

    “PARIS — The number of new cars registered in France fell 7% from a year earlier in April, as an expected boost from government scrapping incentives failed to materialize.

    Domestic car makers PSA Peugeot Citroën SA and Renault SA saw their sales decline at a slower pace than the overall market, according to data published Monday by the French car manufacturers’ association. New registrations in France of Peugeot Citroën cars fell 5.9% last month, while those of Renault declined 5.8%.

    In Italy, meanwhile, new-car registrations fell 7.5% in April to 188,406 vehicles from 203,750 vehicles a year earlier, according to figures released by Italy’s Infrastructure Ministry. Fiat SpA increased its share of the country’s auto market to 35.17% in April from 32.62% in March.”

    ….Yeah, I know…they didn’t have to put any money in to buy Chrysler…I know, I know….

    …It will work out just ducky….

  54. hopeImwrong says:

    Price action is strong. Too chicken to short here.

  55. Mortimus says:

    So much for ending the “boom and bust” cycle

  56. hopeImwrong says:

    xlf broke above recent range. Like most of this rally, volume sucks.

  57. insaneclownposse says:

    a little bull market here would be great. lever up on margin and hit the links for the summer…. worry about crap after labor day.
    be nice if it was that easy.

    the authorities have pumped a boat-load of cash into the system. It’s not being lent out, but there’s a good chance it’s not simply sitting around in bank vaults.

  58. hopeImwrong says:

    @ahab – I see more people saying short is the no brainer right now. Worries me, and make me think the shorts are STILL keeping this rally going, and they are fighting GS who is taking the other side with your bailout money.

  59. hopeImwrong says:

    @insane – you are echoing a recent post (days ago) about where I think the bailout money is going: risk assets.

  60. hopeImwrong says:

    The bull rally will end when GS says it is going to end.

  61. hopeImwrong says:

    SRS is -11.43% right now.

  62. Mannwich says:

    The FAZ under a 7 handle. Going to zero?

  63. call me ahab says:


    USG/GS setup?

  64. bman says:

    I’m with Franklin411

    why not expect this run to last a while? Things dropped pretty far pretty fast last fall, and perhaps theres some makeup work to be done for a while.

    Also I still have confidence in the man I voted in to the white house. I may not like some of his advisors, but I have no fear when the chips come down, he’ll do what is needed and damn the torpedos.

  65. call me ahab says:

    another thought- because GS and other are market makers- they must know where all the stops are and can do what is needed to flush folks out- but if acting on their own behalf- that would seem to be illegal- right?

  66. hopeImwrong says:

    Ahab – maybe, even somewhat likely, but remember, GS is ready to go short when they think that’s where they can make the money. I’m not a huge believer in the PPT, but I do believe there is manipulation at the margins. It’s just a question of where is it coming from, and why. Low volume helps manipulators.

    I don’t think there was much gov’t buying required for this latest rally. But trading firms (GS) flush with bailout money can not only make their nut driving the market up, but they can claim they helped restore confidence (to the gov’t). When the market goes down, they will claim they couldn’t hold it up any more (while they are actually short). Then we get the uptick rule, which will hurt retail investors. Why? The big boys never played by the rules, the the SEC doesn’t enforce.

  67. Mannwich says:

    On another note, this should be cause for another 20-30% run up in the banks.


    Why do the ratings agencies even bother at this point? How are they still in business?

  68. leftback says:

    No worries. The higher this market goes, the more the bears will make on the way down….
    This rally WILL end in our lifetimes. But I am hoping that DL has really good health insurance.

    Mannwich said: “S&P now up 35% off the leftback lows. Ho hum.”
    You have to admit – the Leftback Bottom™ was a very impressive bottom indeed. G’night all.

  69. hopeImwrong says:

    Market makers see the orders, and flush out limit orders. I don’t know if it is illegal, but like I said, the SEC doesn’t do anything.

  70. hopeImwrong says:

    Price action is just unbelievable!

  71. Todd says:

    Even lighter than normal volume. Google’s DJ index had average of 400M last week, it’s gone down to 385M we will be lucky to have 2/3 normal volume today.

  72. constantnormal says:

    I think that there’s very little relating this market to those in the chart … at how many of those data points was the market manipulated/controlled to the degree that it is today? The last time I can recall anything close to this amount of market control being employed was back in the 1970′s, when Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith became “We the People” by ingesting a number of failed brokerage firms, amid a sea of program trading.

    Whether one believes in the PPT, or that the banksters are dominating via program trades, or whether the banksters ARE the PPT (when it suits their purposes), there is no denying that the number of players in the markets today is a very small number by historical standards, and that a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines, afraid to enter the casino.

    I think that the intent behind this up-up-and-away performance is one (or both) of two things:

    1) get the prices up high enough to be able to sell (their own) stock and make money (the increase capital theme)

    2) lure the sideline money back into the markets, so they will have someone other than each other to sell those shares to.

  73. eren says:

    i sold my last FAS positions. Now I only have FAZ. A very small position. I think that was excellent selling opportunity. good luck everbody :)

  74. constantnormal says:

    Obi-Wan: ” I just heard a sound in the Force … like a million downside leveraged ETF shareholders crying out in pain … then silence.”

  75. Mannwich says:

    At this rate, all the leveraged short ETF’s will be at zero and closed in a few weeks. Do you think that’s the goal here?

  76. I-Man says:

    Are you guys working on a mystery novel or something? :)

    It does look like that for sure, but there is never manipulation… the game is too big. At the lows, all the conspiracy talk was PPT buying, now its GS… I’d rather believe that there is no conspiracy, no sinister overarching plan.

    I’d be more willing to bet that GS trading desks are sellers here… not buyers. Try taking a peek at the LTV’s on the most actives… lotta mojo on the sells, small lots on the buys. Just an observation.

    And I just remembered why I dont make careless predictions. I apologize Borchers, that was a low blow.

    Nice spike on XLF, but too little too late for me… I wouldnt trust it, but thats why I’m short the financials.

  77. ben22 says:

    Hmmm, interesting discussion on GS getting to see order data. All you guys are looking at GS because that seems obvious right? Wrong place. Look at another place, and look at James Simons.

    From the Simons article The Code Breaker in Bloomberg Markets Jan. 2008:

    The year 2000, during which the Standard & Poors 500 Index tumbled 10.1%, proved Medallion’s best to date. It gained 98.5%, net of fees……

    Performance such as that feeds the hedge fund industry’s insatiable curiousity. Rivals search for the signals underpinning Renaissance’s returns. One set of clues came in the new York State Supreme Court decision in July, which the court heavily redacted. It cites three strategies tested at the firm, including one using limit order book data. MIT’s Lo says that a fund firm could look at such data and identify a large sell order for, say, $15 a share when a stock is trading at $15.05. The fund could short the stock at $15.01 and benefit if the stock hit the $15 trigger.

  78. Mannwich says:

    I stand in awe of this “market” or whatever it is. Wow, just wow. Amazing. Off for my mid-afternoon bike ride. I’ll be shaking my head in disbelief the whole way. S&P 1,000 or bust.

  79. danm says:

    Just read this thread.

    0 comment based on fundamentals.

    It says something!

  80. I-Man says:

    What are “fundamentals”?

  81. Mannwich says:

    Yeah, “fundamentals”, what’s that? Don’t be silly, of course we’re not talking about those little pesky things.

  82. http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=payment+for+order+flow

    Mr. & Mrs. MutFund should really wonder why their Fees are so high..

    hidden in plain sight, it, really, is a thing of beauty..

    maybe peep are starting to wise up?
    “May 4 (Bloomberg) — Fidelity Investments, the world’s largest mutual fund company, has one thing in common with some of its customers: it has less money in stock and bond funds than it did a decade ago.

    Fidelity’s long-term assets fell 4.9 percent to $521 billion at the end of March, according to Financial Research Corp., a Boston-based company whose data excludes money-market funds.

    “A lot of their funds have had middling performance and that turns people off,” said Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Morningstar Inc., a Chicago-based company that tracks the industry. …”

  83. muckdog says:

    Roulette wheel comes up black 8 times in a row.

    What are the odds of it coming up black this time?


  84. sixmil says:

    The Nasdaq Composite goes back to 1971.
    It is also up the last 8 weeks in a row.
    Here is the distribution:
    1 198
    2 97
    3 60
    4 25
    5 26
    6 10
    7 10
    8 9
    9 3
    10 2
    11 5
    12 0
    13 0
    14 0
    15 1
    The 15 came in 3/10/1972.
    The 11′s came on 12/31/99, 6/9/89, 12/13/85, 5/19/78, 2/20/76

  85. Good work sixmil,

    It looks like the odds on favorite are that the rally ends in the next two weeks.

  86. [...] I saw this piece from Barry, and this piece from Jason Goepfert on the eight-week Nasdaq streak, and read some of the [...]