Nasdaq-100 Weekly Winning Streaks (1985 – 2009)
By Michael Panzner - May 4th, 2009, 12:22PM
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Mike Panzner writes:
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The technology-laden Nasdaq-100 Index has had a winning streak of more than eight weeks on only five occasions, or 3% of the total, since 1985 (when the NDX began trading).
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14 1 [Week ending 1/15/99]
13 0
12 0
11 2 [6/9/89 and 12/31/99]
10 1 [2/3/89]
9 1 [12/4/92]
8 4 [Includes latest streak, as of last Friday]
7 1
6 9
5 13
4 16
3 34
2 86
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May 4th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
I wish this had a bigger sample set — going back to the 1970s might have been more instructive.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Over the last 8 months, how many times have we seen an extreme technical reading, or a new record established (e.g., VIX), or an old record challenged?
Add another one to the list.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
would be more interesting to see what the next 8 weeks have looked like after those streaks
hmmm….
May 4th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
The more people get suckered into this rally, the faster we’ll find a bottom.
My guess is that soon, the second batch of investors will be losing their money. This will happen until there are no more suckers with money to lose.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Pretty much looks like an exponential probability distribution
This would be expected since an exponential distribution has a “memoryless” property
May 4th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
I am surprised that news of BofA, Citi and Wells needing additional capital with the implication of dilution has not effected the share prices-
what am I missing??? Seems to be a pretty straight forward conclusion
May 4th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
@ahab: Au contraire. It seems to have had plenty of an effect on WFC’s stock price. It’s actually UP 10% today in our bizarro world. Dilution, smilution. It’s all green shoots now.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
@ahab
What you’re missing is that in your world, 2+2=4. You have to get with the program and see the unicorns and rainbows, and remember that 1=2 for large values of 1.
=)
HCF
May 4th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
ahab, i wouldn’t pay attention to the news:
NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) – Bank of America Corp (BAC), denying a media report, said it had no plans to raise $10 billion in common equity, while another report said Citigroup Inc (C) was looking to raise capital from private investors.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Anyone here thinking of buying volatility? I’m looking at the VXX (Barclays Ipath VIX short-term ETN), which is under $90 now. Me thinks the market is very complacent right now. Any better ways to play volatility?
HCF
May 4th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Our government now owns the stock markets, or maybe, the other way ’round.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
HCF @ 1:20
Of course, you could buy out-of-the-money puts and calls… and not necessarily equal amounts of each.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
karen-
however- if the government converts to common because TBTF banks unable to find private investores-same result- dilution-
I don’t see how dilution does not occur unless private investors are found and given preferred shares- unless of course the stress tests come out and the there is no requirement to raise capital
May 4th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
So, if the S&P breaks 900 do you think it will create a pop as the shorts try and close their positions. I’ve stopped trying to rationalize the market. It’s now a day to day look.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
if you look at the $wlsh, it doesn’t look as tho it will crash anytime soon. pull back, yes, crash, no.
same with $tran… we’ll see what 1:00 gives us. both are looking overbot and ready to correct, but not crash.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
The data seems fitting. Isn’t the run up since March 9th the fastest/farthest since the Stone Age or something? The 1930′s anyway. Shouldn’t we have 20 or 30 up weeks in a row to match the other amazing feats?
May 4th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
@Clem
Wasn’t the run down the fastest/furthest since the Stone Age?
May 4th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Since 1973, post-election year NASDAQ Mays rank first.
I’d put my shorts on tech on 5/22 if I were going to do so.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
I dunno. I think comparing this time period to any other is a fool’s errand because everything is so manipulated at this point by the feds. What’s to stop the market from simply going up virtually every and week at this point until the feds (and their banking cronies) decide to pull back the throttle when it suits their agendas? I mean, it’s literally gone straight up almost every day for the past 8+ weeks now. I see now reason this can’t continue with everything being so manipulated.
How can we even compare apples-to-apples (or even any other fruit) if this is the case? And I do believe this IS the case. It’s obvious where the extra cash the feds are pumping into the banks are going – straight into the market.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
This rally has already gone much further than I thought it would. At this point, I own a few QQQQ call options, but that’s about it. I’m going to wait for a turn in market direction before making any big bets.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
I’m going to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction.
This rally WILL end during our lifetimes.
You heard it here first.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
a short squeeze is going on now, but maybe institutional performance chasers are coming in to buy at these levels as well.
Could be a baby cyclical bull happening at the moment. It seems like sentiment has really turned the corner. I’m buying the junkiest crap I can think of — UYG.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30562314
JPMorgan May Be Asked to Buy More Banks: CEO Dimon
Hmmm….seems to me that this will eventually concentrate assets into an even smaller circle of players…
May 4th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
DL-
quite the revelation
May 4th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
I don’t know why anyone is surprised about the recent market behavior. Bear rallies exist because the dominant experience in most investor’s lives are short-term cyclical downturns ie excess inventory, limited over-expansion, etc that traditionally occur over 6 yr up/2 yr down cycles. The truly fundamental debt-deflation cycles occur much less frequently – on the order of one per lifetime eg 1873, 1929, 2008.
But to really understand what is going on, consider the bigger picture: why do banks get away with what they are doing? Because the fundamentals regarding money creation, debt expansion, etc are simply too complex for those with IQs below 125. So the great middle faithfully slogs on, completely unaware of 3 key underlying factors:
* 7 years & $trillions in mal-investments. Akin to the 4 pt turn-around problem in basketball (miss a shot to go even, only to have the other team score on rebound, not only was there limited capital invested in new productive ventures, but the capital that *was invested* was shot on an unsustainable consumption model.
* Boomers are now in savings mode. Even if the economy were to somehow recover (not possible given the above), they would be making a last-ditch effort towards saving rather than consuming.
* The country’s demographics have changed – we simply do not have the intellectual capital necessary to differentiate the vast bulk of our productive labor away from the debilitating effects of global wage arbitrage to any significant level.
The last comment also has other underlying implications:
* The election of Obama and the enabling of his policy agenda
* The ability of the Fed & Treasury to consistently cite national security as a rationale for exercising unConstitutional acivities
* The repudiation of the national debt – either outright, or more elegantly, through 100% inflation
So what we are seeing right now is the effect of people who have no idea regarding the underlying economic fundamentals, but have faith that the PTB will “do the right thing”, and thus continue to direct their 401 plans into the market, combined with people who do understand that the DOW could easily go to 16k based on over $10T that the Fed has committed to backstopping the FIRE economy.
There is no way we are going to escape 20% unemployment and a 15-20% contraction in GDP. But that doesn’t mean the market won’t reflect massive asset appreciation undertaken on behalf of the next generation of citizens who are simply not going to pay the national debt. It will be defaulted or inflated away.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
@Bruce: Great. Just what we need. Make these TBTF behemoths bigger and more powerful. Fantastic.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
HCF…
My preference would be to just buy calls on the VIX itself… not mess with that ETN. But Hoffer would probably be your man to answer that one, he’s the vol sage.
May 4th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
I do believe that mannwich has a point however- maybe the USG is all in- long- possible? How to prove? if the market does not correct- it being extremely overbought – then that would be the logical conclusion-
May 4th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Mannwich @ 1:51
If Obama can succeed in sweeping things under the rug until after the next election, he’s going to come out ahead. (That was Bush’s strategy, I think, during 2008).
May 4th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Well, I bought some ewt this morning…and have set stops…everything on autopilot from here on..
May 4th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
@DL: It’s nearly every politican’s strategy these days – just get re-elected. That’s why the rusty can keeps getting kicked down the road.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Many weeks ago BR put up a simple chart of the S&P and the 200 day MA on the top of it going back I think to 1927. Only twice before had we gotten as far below the 200 day MA as we had in March and it pointed to a big move up. I commented right on the thread that just eyeing the chart looked like we go back to ~1,100 on the S&P. At that time we had 90%+ bulls in gold, everyone was selling or staying short, etc etc, it seemed almost too easy to go long then.
I dunno, I can name a million things wrong with the economy and the markets just like everyone else can but I’m not really surprised like many seem to be at the strength of this rally or that it has gone this high. It’s odd, lots of the people saying that here I think are in some sort of depression/deflation camp yet they seem to completely ignore that we had a 50% rally during the depression.
Also, I’m reading April a lot different than some here it seems. The whole months gains were basically made in a few days at the beginning and end of the month and for the majority of trading days April was actually sort of sideways. Lots of people still looking for a pullback which I certainly understand but what didn’t happen in price in April (no real pullback) may have occured in time instead, as the month performance was misleading but does show up if you take out a few of those ultra strong days at beg. and end.
I’m still looking for the SPX to go btwn 965-1000 before this is over. If we reach 965 I’m going to start getting more short. I might even take a third try at damn SRS which has easily been my worst trade of the last 2 years.
If gold doesn’t go above 919 I’m sticking with my call that it will correct to 680.
How bout the long bonds? TBT +32% on the year. Biggest bubble ever is right there.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
“but the capital that *was invested* was shot on an unsustainable consumption model”
Not sustainable, you say? Many on Wall Street are hoping that their consumption of models and blow is indeed sustainable, or at worst, has experienced only a temporary disruption.
I-Man: I agree. VIX July calls? Would have been a great play last September. In fact it was, for someone.
Anyone think the Q2 earnings will be awesome or perhaps a tad disappointing? I imagine that they will almost all still “beat the Street” though.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
HCF,
these guys: http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/introduction.aspx
will tell you the whole background story on VIX (from their POV)..
and, if the play is VIX exposure in, and of, itself, I think I-Man is correct, cut out the Middleman, you’re better off with having the OCC as direct Counterparty, at the minimum..
but, I tend to focus on individual equities, and their derivatives–Volatility shows up there, too.
the VIX is geared to the SPX option prices..
people tend forget that outlier relative outperformance of a few issues can skew the whole Index..
it’s tough enough to 1-5 good opinions, let alone 30-500-2000…
May 4th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
@DL, I-Man, Hoffer:
Thanks for the notes on VIX. I actually opened a tiny position in VXX… I understand the construction of the VIX index, but by buying some of it, it will FORCE me to learn more since my ass is on the line!
HCF
May 4th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
@HCF — I’m going to steal that line about 1=2 for large values of 1. ;-)
May 4th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
Bruce N Tennessee @ 1:56
If the stop has been entered via your brokerage account, don’t be surprised if the stop gets hit and EWT subsequently goes right on up to $14.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Right NOW, the UUP is sitting on strong support, so I would not be surprised to see a US$ rally begin here that would be equity negative.
@ Bruce: I was long the UWT but that was in March. It’s had a really really good run. Having said that, next time down (and there will be a next time) I like the EWZ, and the EWT as a safer China play than FXI.
BTW, some people are buying COW (meat price index) on the basis that the swine flu panic is overdone. I like this idea, and as you may remember, am also long the DBA.
@ DL: True dat. You are cynical today. I like that. It’s bear exhaustion.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
this is an excellent example of the false anthropogenic effect, humans see patterns where there aren’t. Because of this, when there are long stock runs there tend to be more pull backs than should happen if it were a random walk, if it goes down it will bounce it . . . and if we see only 5 winning streaks we say “only” instead of noticing that it is exactly as expected if the stock market were a random walk.
there is no pattern.
1248 weeks, we are looking for a pattern 2^8 long 24 * 52 / 2^8 = it should happen 5 times.
actually the only thing suspicious here is how exactly it fits the expected value.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
@ Left:
Nice volume on the breakout in DBA last week… Today’s pullback would be a nice entry with a stop nestled just below 25…
And on the VIX calls… I’d look at the June’s. Looks like peeps are building call spreads around the 45′s and 50′s. At a cost of 55 cents, that’s not a bad play for just trying to nab a single.
Of course, you could always just go with the June 37.5′s if you’re swinging for the fences. I like the spreads on options because if I’m wrong it doesnt hurt so bad…
May 4th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Funny (and pathetically true) piece from The Onion:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/nation_ready_to_be_lied_to_about
Explains everything! And captures the psychology of this crazy little rally. And also helps explain why those who don’t stick their head in the sand and see that things are going to continue going to crap, are so puzzled by it. Myself very much included. Of course I also realize that a lot of the rally is just speculators having fun. Too much risk in flipping crappy stocks for me and not enough reward for buying the higher quality stuff at this point.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
I guess the adage that “stock markets never go up or down in a straight line” no longer applies.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
@ Whammer:
> I’m going to steal that line about 1=2 for large values of 1
Be my guest! I procured that line from years of engineering school and being in the industry. Nerd humor rules!
HCF
May 4th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
I-Man’s gonna pull a Borchers and make a careless prediction…
This thing falls apart in the last hour.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
With each passing day I think more and more that franklin411 is in fact J. Borchers.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
S&P now up 35% off the leftback lows. Ho hum.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Mannwich @ 2:41
The way I figure it, the Nasdaq should be back to 5000 by August.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
@DL: Great, then maybe some folks will be made whole off of their busted pets.com and Worldcom bets by then.
@Onlooker: Classic Onion article. Loved it. One for the ages.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
HCF,
here’s another info source on VIX: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/04/ten-things-everyone-should-know-about.html
seems worthwhile..
also: ”
As I write this, the VIX is at 51.30, up 9% and VXX is at 116.40, up 7.5%.
I continue to get quite a few questions about VXX, the VIX ETN. The biggest issues, by far, seem to be around how well VXX tracks the VIX and how much juice to expect from VXX relative to the VIX.
As best I can determine, when there are small day to day changes in the SPX, VXX should reflect, on average, approximately 35-40% of the daily change in the VIX. In more volatile markets, such as SPX daily changes of 3% or more, VXX should move, on average, about 55-60% as much as the VIX does. (Of course, on average, if you walk down the middle of a two way street you won’t get hit by oncoming traffic, but deviate to one side or the other even briefly…)
For more information on the movements of VXX and the VIX, check out Directional Exposure to Volatility Via Listed Futures: S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, authored by Gareth Parker, Gerlinda Liu and Keith Loggie of Standard & Poors.
Posted by Bill Luby at 10:15 AM
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/02/vxx-tracking-vix-at-80-today.html
and, Whammer is right, this: 1=2 for large values of 1, is too.. (:
May 4th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
@Leftback:
Have you looked at the chart of COW?
They could have named it DOWN, and come closer to the truth…
But I get your point.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
in the end I think common sense prevails- speaking of NAZ 5000- I remember poeple telling me it was a no brainer- can’t lose- and I was thinking to myself- what am I missing?- I mean Pets.com- give me a break- who gives a shit- and then NAZ crashed w/ people doubling down- dumbasses
so the shorts will be right- it is always a timing thing
May 4th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
boy SKF has fallen off a cliff
May 4th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124146230380884237.html
French Car Registrations Decline 7%
“PARIS — The number of new cars registered in France fell 7% from a year earlier in April, as an expected boost from government scrapping incentives failed to materialize.
Domestic car makers PSA Peugeot Citroën SA and Renault SA saw their sales decline at a slower pace than the overall market, according to data published Monday by the French car manufacturers’ association. New registrations in France of Peugeot Citroën cars fell 5.9% last month, while those of Renault declined 5.8%.
In Italy, meanwhile, new-car registrations fell 7.5% in April to 188,406 vehicles from 203,750 vehicles a year earlier, according to figures released by Italy’s Infrastructure Ministry. Fiat SpA increased its share of the country’s auto market to 35.17% in April from 32.62% in March.”
….Yeah, I know…they didn’t have to put any money in to buy Chrysler…I know, I know….
…It will work out just ducky….
May 4th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Price action is strong. Too chicken to short here.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
So much for ending the “boom and bust” cycle
May 4th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
xlf broke above recent range. Like most of this rally, volume sucks.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
a little bull market here would be great. lever up on margin and hit the links for the summer…. worry about crap after labor day.
be nice if it was that easy.
the authorities have pumped a boat-load of cash into the system. It’s not being lent out, but there’s a good chance it’s not simply sitting around in bank vaults.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
@ahab – I see more people saying short is the no brainer right now. Worries me, and make me think the shorts are STILL keeping this rally going, and they are fighting GS who is taking the other side with your bailout money.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
@insane – you are echoing a recent post (days ago) about where I think the bailout money is going: risk assets.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
The bull rally will end when GS says it is going to end.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
SRS is -11.43% right now.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
The FAZ under a 7 handle. Going to zero?
May 4th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
hopeimwrong-
USG/GS setup?
May 4th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
I’m with Franklin411
why not expect this run to last a while? Things dropped pretty far pretty fast last fall, and perhaps theres some makeup work to be done for a while.
Also I still have confidence in the man I voted in to the white house. I may not like some of his advisors, but I have no fear when the chips come down, he’ll do what is needed and damn the torpedos.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
another thought- because GS and other are market makers- they must know where all the stops are and can do what is needed to flush folks out- but if acting on their own behalf- that would seem to be illegal- right?
May 4th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Ahab – maybe, even somewhat likely, but remember, GS is ready to go short when they think that’s where they can make the money. I’m not a huge believer in the PPT, but I do believe there is manipulation at the margins. It’s just a question of where is it coming from, and why. Low volume helps manipulators.
I don’t think there was much gov’t buying required for this latest rally. But trading firms (GS) flush with bailout money can not only make their nut driving the market up, but they can claim they helped restore confidence (to the gov’t). When the market goes down, they will claim they couldn’t hold it up any more (while they are actually short). Then we get the uptick rule, which will hurt retail investors. Why? The big boys never played by the rules, the the SEC doesn’t enforce.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
On another note, this should be cause for another 20-30% run up in the banks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3y27YAXJ57s&refer=home
Why do the ratings agencies even bother at this point? How are they still in business?
May 4th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
No worries. The higher this market goes, the more the bears will make on the way down….
This rally WILL end in our lifetimes. But I am hoping that DL has really good health insurance.
Mannwich said: “S&P now up 35% off the leftback lows. Ho hum.”
You have to admit – the Leftback Bottom™ was a very impressive bottom indeed. G’night all.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Market makers see the orders, and flush out limit orders. I don’t know if it is illegal, but like I said, the SEC doesn’t do anything.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Price action is just unbelievable!
May 4th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Even lighter than normal volume. Google’s DJ index had average of 400M last week, it’s gone down to 385M we will be lucky to have 2/3 normal volume today.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
I think that there’s very little relating this market to those in the chart … at how many of those data points was the market manipulated/controlled to the degree that it is today? The last time I can recall anything close to this amount of market control being employed was back in the 1970′s, when Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith became “We the People” by ingesting a number of failed brokerage firms, amid a sea of program trading.
Whether one believes in the PPT, or that the banksters are dominating via program trades, or whether the banksters ARE the PPT (when it suits their purposes), there is no denying that the number of players in the markets today is a very small number by historical standards, and that a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines, afraid to enter the casino.
I think that the intent behind this up-up-and-away performance is one (or both) of two things:
1) get the prices up high enough to be able to sell (their own) stock and make money (the increase capital theme)
2) lure the sideline money back into the markets, so they will have someone other than each other to sell those shares to.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
i sold my last FAS positions. Now I only have FAZ. A very small position. I think that was excellent selling opportunity. good luck everbody :)
May 4th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Obi-Wan: ” I just heard a sound in the Force … like a million downside leveraged ETF shareholders crying out in pain … then silence.”
May 4th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
At this rate, all the leveraged short ETF’s will be at zero and closed in a few weeks. Do you think that’s the goal here?
May 4th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Are you guys working on a mystery novel or something? :)
JK-
It does look like that for sure, but there is never manipulation… the game is too big. At the lows, all the conspiracy talk was PPT buying, now its GS… I’d rather believe that there is no conspiracy, no sinister overarching plan.
I’d be more willing to bet that GS trading desks are sellers here… not buyers. Try taking a peek at the LTV’s on the most actives… lotta mojo on the sells, small lots on the buys. Just an observation.
And I just remembered why I dont make careless predictions. I apologize Borchers, that was a low blow.
Nice spike on XLF, but too little too late for me… I wouldnt trust it, but thats why I’m short the financials.
May 4th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Hmmm, interesting discussion on GS getting to see order data. All you guys are looking at GS because that seems obvious right? Wrong place. Look at another place, and look at James Simons.
From the Simons article The Code Breaker in Bloomberg Markets Jan. 2008:
The year 2000, during which the Standard & Poors 500 Index tumbled 10.1%, proved Medallion’s best to date. It gained 98.5%, net of fees……
Performance such as that feeds the hedge fund industry’s insatiable curiousity. Rivals search for the signals underpinning Renaissance’s returns. One set of clues came in the new York State Supreme Court decision in July, which the court heavily redacted. It cites three strategies tested at the firm, including one using limit order book data. MIT’s Lo says that a fund firm could look at such data and identify a large sell order for, say, $15 a share when a stock is trading at $15.05. The fund could short the stock at $15.01 and benefit if the stock hit the $15 trigger.
May 4th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
I stand in awe of this “market” or whatever it is. Wow, just wow. Amazing. Off for my mid-afternoon bike ride. I’ll be shaking my head in disbelief the whole way. S&P 1,000 or bust.
May 4th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Just read this thread.
0 comment based on fundamentals.
It says something!
May 4th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
What are “fundamentals”?
May 4th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Yeah, “fundamentals”, what’s that? Don’t be silly, of course we’re not talking about those little pesky things.
May 4th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=payment+for+order+flow
Mr. & Mrs. MutFund should really wonder why their Fees are so high..
hidden in plain sight, it, really, is a thing of beauty..
maybe peep are starting to wise up?
“May 4 (Bloomberg) — Fidelity Investments, the world’s largest mutual fund company, has one thing in common with some of its customers: it has less money in stock and bond funds than it did a decade ago.
Fidelity’s long-term assets fell 4.9 percent to $521 billion at the end of March, according to Financial Research Corp., a Boston-based company whose data excludes money-market funds.
“A lot of their funds have had middling performance and that turns people off,” said Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Morningstar Inc., a Chicago-based company that tracks the industry. …”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aK4.zqAPg2Ng&refer=home
May 4th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Roulette wheel comes up black 8 times in a row.
What are the odds of it coming up black this time?
LOL
May 4th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
The Nasdaq Composite goes back to 1971.
It is also up the last 8 weeks in a row.
Here is the distribution:
1 198
2 97
3 60
4 25
5 26
6 10
7 10
8 9
9 3
10 2
11 5
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 1
The 15 came in 3/10/1972.
The 11′s came on 12/31/99, 6/9/89, 12/13/85, 5/19/78, 2/20/76
May 5th, 2009 at 12:30 am
Good work sixmil,
It looks like the odds on favorite are that the rally ends in the next two weeks.
May 6th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
[...] I saw this piece from Barry, and this piece from Jason Goepfert on the eight-week Nasdaq streak, and read some of the [...]